XAU/USD Current price: $2,639.49

• United States markets are closed amid the celebration of the Thanksgiving Holiday.
• Market participants maintain bets the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates in December.
• XAU/USD gains downward traction in the near term, could soon pierce $2,600.

Spot Gold remains lifeless below the $2,650 level on a quiet Thursday as investors gear up for an extended weekend. The batch of United States (US) macroeconomic data released on Wednesday anticipated the ongoing quietness, as all American markets are closed amid the Thanksgiving Holiday.

On a positive note, the bright metal finds support in mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver another 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut when it meets in mid-December. At the time, according to the CME FedWatch Toll, the odds are roughly 70%.

Meanwhile, European stocks closed in the green, led by the tech sector amid receding concerns about the US imposing fresh tariffs on China’s products.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD has made little progress. It’s trading barely up for a third consecutive day, still confined to the lower end of its weekly range after plummeting on Monday. Technical readings in the daily chart show that the risk skews to the downside, as Gold is meeting sellers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a second consecutive day. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, remain well below their current level, partially losing their upward strength. Finally, technical indicators head nowhere within negative levels, in line with absent buying interest.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The pair is trading just above converging 20 and 100 SMAs, with the shorter one offering a firmer downward slope, suggesting mounting selling pressure. The 200 SMA, in the meantime, remains directionless far above the shorter ones. Technical indicators suggest the bright metal may fall further as both rotated south around their mid-lines, reflecting mounting selling pressure.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55

• Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.
• The pair remains confined within a descending channel pattern, signaling a strong bearish bias.
• A decisive break below the throwback support could drive the Silver price to approach its three-month low of $27.69.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart analysis indicates a dominant bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting the bearish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bearish outlook and signaling weakening short-term price momentum. This points to limited buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price declines.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average at $30.54, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.78. Further resistance appears around the upper boundary of the descending channel at 31.20 level.

On the downside, the Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A successful breach below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the asset price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $27.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.
• The pair remains confined within a descending channel pattern, signaling a strong bearish bias.
• A decisive break below the throwback support could drive the Silver price to approach its three-month low of $27.69.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart analysis indicates a dominant bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting the bearish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bearish outlook and signaling weakening short-term price momentum. This points to limited buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price declines.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average at $30.54, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.78. Further resistance appears around the upper boundary of the descending channel at 31.20 level.

On the downside, the Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A successful breach below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the asset price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $27.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

• Silver price depreciates due to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing Middle-East tensions.
• A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday.
• Dollar-denominated Silver faces headwinds as an improved US Dollar increases its cost for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday. The decline in Silver prices can be attributed to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday, following a deal mediated by the United States (US) and France. This truce has allowed people in the border areas, devastated by 14 months of conflict, to begin returning to their homes. However, Israel continues its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.

The price of dollar-denominated Silver has been pressured by an improved US dollar (USD) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain cautious about cutting interest rates following Wednesday’s robust inflation data. The report indicated solid growth in consumer spending for October, but it also highlighted a stagnation in progress toward lowering inflation, keeping the Fed on alert.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.7% recorded the previous month. Both figures aligned with market expectations, indicating steady inflationary pressure within the economy.

Demand of the non-yielding Silver receives downward pressure due to optimism in the bond market following the selection of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary in the incoming administration. Bessent has advocated for a phased approach to trade restrictions and expressed a willingness to negotiate tariff levels in coordination with President-elect Donald Trump.

Silver traders still assess the recent Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for the policy meeting held on November 7, which indicated that policymakers are adopting a cautious stance on cutting interest rates, citing easing inflation and a robust labor market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 68.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 59.4%, a day ago. Nonetheless, they anticipate the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its January and March meetings.

• Gold price returns to the red early Thursday as US Dollar pauses decline alongside US Treasury bond yields. 
• Bear Cross and bearish RSI on the daily chart continue to favor Gold sellers.
• Gold price remains subject to intense volatility due to Thanksgiving Day holiday-led thin liquidity.

Gold price reverts toward the weekly low of $2,605 in Asian trading on Thanksgiving Thursday, snapping a two-day recovery. The US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields breathe a sigh of relief, exerting downward pressure on the Gold price amid holiday-thinned trading conditions.  

Gold sellers fight back control

Following a profit-taking decline so far this week, the USD appears to have regained its footing, even though the uptick in US Treasury bond yields seems temporary amid uncertainty over the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans on economic prospects and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

Markets witness renewed jitters amid a tech sell-off on Asian indices following fresh reports that the US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday to restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence (AI).

The fresh risk-aversion wave aids the US Dollar rebound, especially after traders cashed in on their USD longs earlier this week, closing out their positions heading into the Thanksgiving holiday break.

Gold price also suffers in the face of a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah on Wednesday.

Growing trade war fears, however, could cushion the downside in the traditional safe-haven Gold price. Further, sustained expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 15 basis points (bps) next month lend support to Gold optimists.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets now price in about 68% of a December Fed rate cut, up from 62% before the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on Wednesday.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, increased at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%, aligning with market expectations.

Looking ahead, volatility around Gold price could remain high, given thin liquidity as US traders are away on account of Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, exaggerated price action in Gold cannot be ruled out.

That said, traders will pay close attention to any headlines concerning trade globally, which could significantly impact risk sentiment and the USD-sensitive Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the bearish bias remains intact for Gold price as a Bear Cross is in play and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower below the 50 level, currently near 46.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed below the 50-day SMA on Tuesday, confirming the Bear Cross.

The immediate support is at the weekly low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,571 cannot be ruled out.  

A sustained break below that level is needed to take on the November 14 low of $2,537.

Conversely, Gold buyers must find acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $2,654 to initiate a fresh recovery.

The next relevant upside targets are at the 50-day SMA at $2,669 and the $2,700 level.

Second Sharp Selloff Since Top

Judging by the bearish reaction following the new trend high of 3.56 last Friday, resistance was seen near the top trendline of a parallel trend channel. The channel shows price symmetry, which can be seen with the rising dashed center line that is drawn up the middle of the channel. Once one end of the symmetrical pattern is hit and price reverses, the other end of the pattern becomes a target.

Given the decisive nature of today’s drop, it looks like there is a good chance that lower targets may be tested. For gold, that would be indicated on a test of support around the lower channel line and 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA (purple), another trend indicator, has converged with the bottom channel line, it can be used as a proxy for the line. Currently, it is at 2.95.

Interim Support Levels

Nonetheless, there are other price areas to watch on the way down. Either may see signs of support. Next in line is the 3.16 swing high from June. The 3.02 swing high follows a little lower. It is a potentially significant price area as it signaled the recent bull breakout on November 20. A successful test of support around the 20-Day MA would realign the gold trend and keep it at a more sustainable slope. It is also interesting to note that potential support from the top downtrend line also converges around the 20-Day MA price level.

Bull Triangle Breakout is Dominant Pattern

A deeper retracement from last week’s 3.45 peak would be healthy for the market and help squeeze out some speculation. On November 20 natural gas broke out of a large bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. As with any breakout, a pullback to test prior resistance as support is normal behavior. Once a counter-trend decline completes, the larger and more powerful bullish pattern should be ready to proceed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,639.36

• United States data played against safe-haven demand.
• US Dollar’s broad weakness limits XAU/USD slide in the near term.
• XAU/USD is at risk of falling despite advancing for a second consecutive day.

Spot Gold is up on Wednesday after a bundle of  United States (US) macroeconomic data ended up weighing on the US Dollar(USD), albeit modestly. The USD came under modest selling pressure previous to the news, helping XAU/USD reach an intraday high of $2,658.11 during European trading hours. After the dust settled, the Greenback is showing only partial strength against the bright metal.

The country published the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was upwardly revised quarter over quarter (QoQ) to 1.9% from 1.8%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 22 improved to 213K from the previous 215K, also beating expectations of 217K.

Durable Goods Orders, in the meantime, rose a modest 0.2% in October, worse than the 0.5% advance anticipated but better than the -0.4% posted in September. Finally, the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY as expected. The core annual figure increased by 2.8% YoY, also meeting the market’s forecast.

 The figures had no actual impact on upcoming Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decisions, with the central bank on its way to trim interest rates by 25 bps in December. Yet, at the same time, the numbers show that the economy is doing relatively well. There is no recession in sight, unemployment is near healthy levels, and inflation is close to the Fed’s goal.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily for XAU/USD shows it currently hovers around $2,640, up for a second consecutive day. The risk, however, skews to the downside. Sellers rejected buyers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators remain within negative levels, with neutral-to-bearish slopes. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading higher below the current level, with the 100 SMA providing dynamic support at around $2,568.40.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, bears are also in control. The pair met sellers around a bearish 20 SMA and is currently below an also bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated sharply after failing to overcome their midlines, in line with another leg south, particularly if XAU/USD extends its slide below the $2,626 area.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55

• Silver price oscillates around $30.50 as the focus shifts to US PCE inflation data for October.
• The US Dollar refreshes weekly low ahead of the US PCE inflation data release.
• The safe-haven appeal of the Silver price weakens as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran comes into effect.

Silver price (XAG/USD) exhibits indecisiveness near $30.50 in Wednesday’s European session, with investors focusing on the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for October, which will be published at 15:00 GMT.

Investors await the US PCE inflation data to get more insights about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate action in the December meeting. The possibility for the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% next month has increased to 66% from 56% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Investors will pay close attention to the core PCE inflation data – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Economists expect the annual core PCE inflation to have accelerated to 2.8% from 2.7% in September, with monthly figures growing steadily by 0.3%.

The Silver price remains well-supported above $30.00 from the past two trading sessions amid a correction in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh weekly low near 106.50.

However, the bias towards the Silver price remains downbeat as its safe-haven demand has diminished on initiation of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.

It began at 02:00 GMT on Wednesday, putting an at least temporary end to nearly 14 months of conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group, according to BBC News.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price resumes its declining trend after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40. The white metal is expected to retreat to the November 14 low of around $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price looks to build on the previous recovery toward $2,650 early Wednesday.  
• Bear Cross and bearish RSI on the daily chart continue to caution Gold buyers.
• The Gold price recovery hinges on the US data, including the PCE inflation.

Gold price stays on the front foot in Asian trading on Wednesday, looking to extend the previous recovery from six-day lows of $2,605. Traders gear up for a slew of top-tier US economic data releases heading into the Thanksgiving holiday season.

Gold buyers await US PCE inflation data 

Early Wednesday, the persistent weakness surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields offset easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, allowing Gold buyers to come up for air for the second day.

The sentiment around the US Dollar remains undermined following US President-elect Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary.  Bessent, a fiscal conservative, assured the US bond markets, spelling doom for the US Treasury bond yields and eventually for the USD.

A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon helped reduce the haven demand for the Greenback, exerting additional downward pressure even though the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve  (Fed )November meeting showed that officials were divided on further rate cuts.

Reuters reported, “a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed group Hezbollah came into effect at 0200 GMT on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden said both sides accepted an agreement brokered by the United States and France.”

Meanwhile, markets continue to price in over 60% probability of the Fed lowering interest rates by 25 bps next month, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, despite a less dovish Fed Minutes.

Therefore, the Gold price remains supported amid sustained dovish Fed expectations and uncertainty surrounding global trade prospects during Donald Trump’s presidency. This is especially true after he announced 25% tariffs on goods imported from the US into Canada and Mexico on Tuesday. At the same time, he slapped 10% additional tariffs on US imports into China.

Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department data showed on Tuesday that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong in October fell from September and were down 43% from the previous year. Traders digest the data as attention turns toward the upcoming US macro news, with the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index in focus.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the weekly Jobless Claims will help shape market expectations for future Fed rate cuts, impacting the USD and the non-interest-bearing Gold price. The core PCE Price Index is rising 2.8% YoY in October versus September’s rise of 2.7%. Meanwhile, the headline annual PCE inflation is expected to advance to 2.3% in the same period from 2.1% in September.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Hotter-than-expected US inflation data could raise further doubts about the Fed’s rate cut trajectory, reinforcing selling pressure around the Gold price.

The 21-day SMA crossed the 50-day SMA from above on a daily closing basis on Tuesday, confirming a Bear Cross.

Adding credence to the downside potential, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, currently near 47.

Therefore, any upside attempts in Gold price could likely be sold into unless buyers find acceptance above the 21-day SMA and 50-day SMA crossover near $2,660.

The next topside barriers are at the $2,700 level and Monday’s high of $2,721.

Alternatively, the immediate support is at the previous day’s low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,569 remains in the offing.

A sustained break below that level could challenge the November 14 low of $2,537.

• Silver price appreciates as daily chart analysis suggests a possible momentum shift from bearish to bullish.
• The primary resistance would be found at a nine-day EMA at $30.76.
• The pair may navigate the area around the throwback support at the psychological level of $30.00.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady near $30.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis suggests a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish as the pair has been tracking down along the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern.

However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned below the 50 level, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Additionally, the XAG/USD pair remains below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), signaling a bearish outlook and indicating weakening short-term price momentum. This suggests weak buying interest and the potential for further price losses.

In terms of the upside, if the Silver price successfully breaches the key resistance zone near the upper boundary of the descending channel, the asset price would further test the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $30.76, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.96.

On the downside, the Silver price may find support around its “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A break below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $28.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart