Falling ABCD Pattern Targets 3.04

It is possible that a falling ABCD pattern is forming, although it is not perfect given the initial AB decline covers only one day. Looking at the pattern on a 4-hour chart (not shown) presents a clearer view of the pattern as the high candle is subsequently reversed. In the daily chart, there has not yet been a drop below last Friday’s low. The initial target from the pattern is 3.04. This essentially extends the next lower target zone around that is around the breakout level for a symmetrical triangle pattern at 3.02 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, also at 3.02.

Entries Following First Pullback After a Breakout

Natural gas is in the process of its first pullback following a decisive upside breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern last week on a rally above 3.02. Buying after the first pullback following a decisive breakout through a key pivot level is one of the better risk management entry strategies and active investors and traders deploy.

The downside is typically relatively narrow, while the upside has the benefit of a bullish pattern on the higher time frames. Market participants are drawn by the growing recognition that a long-term breakout recently occurred. Eventual follow-through to the breakout is anticipated. November ended at the highest monthly closing price for natural gas since October 2023. That is bullish behavior.

Upside Potential Versus Downside Risk

The idea for buying off the first pullback is that since a breakout recently occurred, in an uptrend a bullish reversal has the potential to be the beginning of a new trend (prior trend reversal) or new swing within a larger trend. The price dynamic should provide better upside potential relative to downside risk since a trader can more quickly identify when things aren’t going according to plan and exit relatively early before a larger decline.

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• Silver posts a 1.33% gain on Friday, yet records a weekly loss of 2.30%.
• Technical outlook neutral with a potential bullish pivot if Silver clears $31.00 resistance.
• Downward risk persists if Silver falls below $30.35, targeting next support at $30.00.

Silver price advanced on Friday and finished the session with gains of over 1.33%, yet printed losses of 2.30% in the week. A weak US Dollar sponsored a leg up in the grey metal, which has cleared the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.35. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.60.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal is neutral to downward biased, consolidated, and fluctuated around the 100-day SMA. Neither buyers nor sellers have been able to move Silver’s price outside of the $29.64-$31.52 range.

Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain bearish, though there have been signs that buyers are gathering steam.

Hence, for a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the $31.00. Once cleared, the next stop would be the top of the range at $31.52 before buyers could target the 50-day SMA at $31.74, ahead of the $32.00 figure.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD drops below the 100-day SMA of $30.35, the next support would be the $30.00 mark. On further weakness, sellers could aim to the 200-day SMA at $29.10.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Coffee price today November 29, 2024 on the market world, at 4:30 am updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange MXV (world coffee prices are continuously updated by MXV, matching with world exchanges, the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates and links with world exchanges). Today’s online coffee prices of the three main coffee futures exchanges ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US and B3 Brazil are continuously updated by Y5Cafe during the trading hours of the exchange, updated as follows:

At the end of the trading session, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor at 4:30 a.m. on November 29, 2024 continued to increase slightly compared to the previous trading session, an increase of 10 – 32 USD/ton, ranging from 2.277 – 5.613 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term January 2025 was 5.565 USD/ton (up 32 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 5.528 USD/ton (up 32 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 5.454 USD/ton (up 20 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 5.370 USD/ton (up 10 USD/ton).

On 29/11, the New York Arabica Coffee Exchange was closed for Thanksgiving. At the end of the previous trading session, coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange were quite high. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 323.05 cent/lb; the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 320.70 cent/lb; the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 315.70 cent/lb and the monthly delivery term September 2025 was 310.20 cent/lb.

At the end of the trading session, on the morning of November 29, 2024, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee increased and decreased mixedly across delivery terms, ranging from 393.25 – 403.90 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 399.20 USD/ton (down 4.70 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 401.80 USD/ton (up 3.10 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 400.05 USD/ton (up 19.05 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 393.25 USD/ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time. Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time. For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will open from 19:00 – 02:35 (next day) Vietnam time.

According to forecasts, tomorrow’s coffee prices November 30, 2024 Robusta coffee prices on the London floor and Arabica coffee prices in New York will continue to increase. Meanwhile, according to forecasts, the price of Arabica coffee in Brazil will show signs of slowing down. As for domestic coffee prices, it is likely to exceed 130.000 VND/kg, approaching the record threshold of 134.400 VND/kg.

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on November 29, 2024 as follows: Domestic coffee prices continued to increase sharply, increasing from 4.000 – 4.100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 128.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai at 127.900 VND/kg (up 4.000 VND/kg compared to the previous trading session); Meanwhile, in the province Dak Nong Coffee was also purchased at the highest price of 128.200 VND/kg (an increase of 4.100 VND/kg).

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 127.500 VND/kg.

Coffee price today (date 29/11) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at 128.000 VND/kg, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 127.900 VND/kg.

Domestic coffee prices are forecast to exceed VND 130.000/kg in the next session on November 30, 2024.

According to the Department of Industry and Trade of Dak Lak province, in the 2023-2024 coffee crop, the whole province exported 264.404 tons of coffee (down 54.095 tons compared to the previous crop), accounting for 17,9% of the whole country.

Export turnover reached 915,795 million USD (an increase of 168,238 million USD compared to the previous crop year), accounting for 16,9% of the whole country.

Compared to the 2022-2023 crop year, the province’s coffee exports decreased in volume but increased in value due to the continuous increase in coffee prices in the last crop year. Of which, coffee bean exports reached 783,895 million USD, an increase of 24,5%.

Instant coffee exports reached 131,9 million USD, accounting for 14,4% of the province’s total coffee export turnover. Compared to the 2022-2023 coffee crop, instant coffee export turnover increased by 14,173 million USD.

Brent Crude oil prices are expected to average $74.53 a barrel next year, the monthly Reuters poll of dozens of analysts showed on Friday, as the experts downgraded their price outlook for the seventh consecutive month.

Brent Crude prices are set to average $74.53 per barrel next year as weaker global demand growth and enough supply would offset the impact of a potential delay to the OPEC+ cuts, said 41 analysts and economists in the survey.

Last month, the analysts had expected Brent Crude prices to average $76.61 per barrel in 2025.

The analyst consensus estimate in the Reuters poll has now been downgraded for the seventh month in a row.

So far this year, Brent Crude has averaged $80 a barrel.

The analysts expect the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, average $70.69 per barrel next year, the Reuters survey showed. The latest forecast is $2 a barrel lower than the October consensus of $72.73 per barrel.

Many analysts expect OPEC+ to extend the current cuts for at least a month, and even for the entire first quarter of 2025, as oil prices continue to be weak, with Brent in the lower $70s and WTI trading below the $70 mark.

Stricter U.S. sanctions against Iran under Donald Trump and geopolitical tensions could provide some support to prices early next year, but overall, expected tepid demand will weigh down on oil prices, according to analysts.

Early on Friday, oil prices were set for a weekly loss despite a flare-up in the Middle East and the virtual certainty that OPEC+ would not be bringing any barrels back anytime soon. Both benchmarks have dropped since the start of the week when the U.S. brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah was announced.

On Thursday, OPEC said that the OPEC+ group would move the meeting on its near-term oil production plans to December 5 from December 1, due to a scheduling conflict.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Created on November 21, 2024

• The West Texas Intermediate crude oil or the US oil markets initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday, but the $70 level has caused a bit of a headache.
• We pulled back from there to turn around and form a negative candlestick.
• This probably isn’t too much of a surprise considering that the $70 level is a large round psychologically significant figure so there’s probably a lot of options being traded there. Plus, it has also been both support and resistance in the past, so a little bit of market memory came into the picture as well.
• Underneath we have the $66.50 level offering and support followed by the $65 level which have been massively supported.

The Noise has Been a Bit Much

Crude oil has been very noisy as of late, but there are a lot of concerns about demand. That just doesn’t seem to be as much as the global economy is slowing down. All of this being said, it is worth noting that the Trump administration in the United States will almost certainly increase production and therefore add more supply to the mix. But on the other side of this equation, and this is one that might be a bit more immediate, the escalation in Ukraine is going to make some people nervous about Russian supply. Furthermore, let’s not forget that the Middle East can go up in flames at any time as well.

So, with all of this being said, I do think we’re closer to a bottom than a top, but a short term pullback does make a certain amount of sense. If we could break above the $70 level, it could open up a move to roughly $70.50 followed by $72. All things being equal, this is a range-bound but somewhat limp market. With this, I would focus on short term trading more than anything else, perhaps looking at smaller positions as well.

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Copper, the third most used metal, plays a crucial role in the energy transition, particularly in electrification and renewable energy. Recent market movements, particularly China’s stimulus measures, have led to significant volatility in copper prices, making the metal’s future uncertain.

China’s Economic Moves Drive Copper’s Price Rollercoaster

Copper futures are actively traded on major platforms like the London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX, and the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX) in India. Copper is the third most used metal globally, particularly in modern industries. 

Chile is the top producer, contributing over one-third of the world’s supply, followed by Peru, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China, the United States, and others. The largest copper importers include China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Germany.

Copper prices have shown significant volatility in October 2024, driven primarily by economic developments in China. The country’s central bank introduced a substantial stimulus package in late September to revive its economy, including monetary measures like lowering interest rates and easing mortgage payments. 

These actions briefly boosted copper demand and drove the London Metal Exchange three-month (LME 3M) copper price to a four-month high of $9,995 per metric ton on September 27. 

However, the optimism was short-lived as market participants realized that details about the spending of the stimulus package were unclear. This, combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker demand for copper, led to a price dip. 

By October 17, the LME 3M copper price had fallen to $9,506 per metric ton as reported and shown below by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

On Monday, copper futures fell to around $4.31 per pound after gaining in the prior two sessions. This decline was driven by a stronger dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields as a resilient US economy dampened hopes for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. 

Meanwhile, investors are watching the upcoming National People’s Congress meeting in China (November 4-8) for updates on debt and fiscal measures. 

Production Setbacks Tighten Supply

Global copper supply has faced challenges, particularly from production setbacks in key regions. A significant incident affecting supply was a fire at Freeport-McMoRan Inc.’s Manyar smelter in Indonesia, which delayed the smelter’s production start to early 2025. This event has resulted in adjustments to the concentrate market deficit forecast. 

Other production challenges included reduced output at key smelters in China, including Baiyin and Jinxin, further tightening the concentrate supply.

• Therefore, the anticipated deficit for 2024 is now at 52,000 metric tons. And a larger deficit of 848,000 metric tons is projected for 2025.

Despite these supply disruptions, treatment charges (TC) for copper concentrates could stay at $35 per dry metric ton in 2025. This suggests that tightness in concentrate supply will persist, potentially causing upward pressure on smelter margins.

Demand Dilemma: EV Boom Bolsters Copper, But Buyers Hold Out for Better Prices

The Chinese market exhibited mixed signals. Following the national holidays in early October, downstream copper buyers anticipated further price drops, leading to a slowdown in new orders. 

As a result, production cuts were reported among wire and cable manufacturers. Some buyers shifted to using copper scrap due to its greater availability, delaying purchases of primary copper.

Not all demand indicators were weak. China’s electric vehicle (EV) sector provided a boost, with EV production rising 48.8% year-over-year in September 2024. This trend supported higher demand for copper components, crucial in EV manufacturing. 

Copper is the best metal for conducting electricity, so it is critical for EVs and batteries, as well as other green energy sources like wind and solar. 

An EV uses about 3x more copper than a regular gas-powered car. As the shift to cleaner energy continues, EVs are expected to increase their share of total copper demand from around 11% in 2021 to over 20% by 2040. 

• According to BHP’s data, global copper demand will increase by about 70%, reaching over 50 million tonnes annually by 2050. The traded metal will see an average annual growth rate of 2% as shown below.

Market Outlook: Copper Prices in 2025

Looking ahead, experts expect copper prices to stay under pressure due to the current balance of supply and demand. However, potential boosts in orders at lower prices and seasonal demand could provide support for prices. 

For 2025, the forecast is for a tighter concentrate market, with a predicted shortfall of 848,000 metric tons. This, in turn, could help stabilize prices around $9,825 per metric ton. Despite current challenges, the outlook suggests a mix of cautious optimism and continued volatility in the copper market.

• Silver price extends its recovery to near $31.00 as demand for safe-haven asset improves.
• Russia threatens to attack Ukraine with nuclear-capable ballistic missiles.
• The US Dollar recovers with investors focusing on a slew of US economic data.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers further to near $31.00 in North American session on Friday. The white metal bounced back on Thursday after posting a fresh 11-week low near $29.60. The asset strengthens as investors fear that Russia could launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine.

Russia threatens a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, followed by firing a series of Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM) on 17 targets, including defense and energy facilities. The prevailing war between Russia and Ukraine keeps the demand for safe-haven assets intact. This was the second-largest Russian attack on Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s energy ministry. Historically, the safe-haven appeal of precious metals such as Silver increases at times of global market uncertainty or heightened geopolitical risks.

In the Middle East, tensions between Israel and Iran have eased, with a ceasefire coming into effect early this week.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) rebounds strongly as investors shift focus to the United States (US) labor market and business activity data, which will be released next week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back after posting a fresh two-week low near 105.60.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price rebounds strongly after sliding to near the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. Still, the outlook of the Silver price is bearish as a bear cross, represented by 20 and 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.30, points to an escalation in the downside trend.

The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price extends its gains due to the rising Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning about a potential nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.
• The demand for the dollar-denominated Silver increases due to the subdued US Dollar.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues its upward trend for the second consecutive session, hovering around $30.70 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. This rally in Silver price is largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, following Moscow’s recent large-scale attacks on key energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was successfully maintained on Wednesday, thanks to a deal brokered by the United States and France. This truce has enabled residents to begin returning to their homes. However, Israel is still engaged in military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Furthermore, the weakening of the US Dollar (USD) is making dollar-denominated Silver more affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, boosting its demand. Additionally, the US bond market has strengthened after US President-elect Donald Trump selected Wall Street veteran and fiscal conservative Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary.

Markets are closely monitoring upcoming US data for further clues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. On Wednesday, US core PCE prices for October met expectations, keeping investor hopes alive for another rate cut in December. However, other data indicated a resilient economy, suggesting that the Fed may take a cautious approach in the coming year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 55.9% a week ago. However, they expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged during its January and March meetings.

• Gold price eyes weekly declines, despite the recent turnaround from weekly lows. 
• Sustained bets for December Fed rate cut bets and Russia-Ukraine geopolitical woes support Gold price.
• Technically, Gold price faces stiff resistance on the daily chart while the RSI regains the 50 level.

Gold price extends its gradual recovery mode and tests the critical $2,670 resistance early Friday, having hit a weekly low of $2,605 on Tuesday. A broadly subdued US Dollar (USD) performance alongside the US Treasury bond yields lend support to the Gold price upswing.   

Gold price awaits fresh catalysts for the next direction

Despite the growing risks of a global tariff war, US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements earlier in the week, the USD maintained its downbeat performance against its major rivals amid sustained bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December.

The in-line with expectations US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data released on Wednesday failed to deter Fed rate cut expectations as markets now pricing in about a 63% chance of a December Fed rate reduction, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows, up from about 55% seen a week ago.

The dovish sentiment around the Fed’s next policy action continues to underpin the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

Meanwhile, the traditional safe-haven Gold price also capitalizes on renewed geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine after several media outlets reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to attack decision-making centres in the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv with the country’s new ballistic missile, Oreshnik.

This came after Moscow launched a “comprehensive” strike on Ukraine’s energy grid overnight in retaliation to Ukraine’s “continued attacks” using US-supplied Atacms missiles on Russian soil.”

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen if the Gold price will build on the recovery momentum amid thin trading conditions, as US traders could be away due to the Thanksgiving long weekend. Further, the Gold price could also benefit if the US Dollar sees a fresh leg lower amid extended declines in the USD/JPY pair.  

The sharp rebound in the Japanese Yen comes after the Tokyo inflation data arrived hotter than expected and bolstered rate hike bets from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) next month.

It’s an empty US docket on Friday, therefore, the Eurozone inflation report could somewhat drive the sentiment along with the end-of-the-week flows, impacting the Gold price action.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, Gold buyers are fighting back control, justified by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) briefly recapturing the 50 level.

However, with the Bear Cross still playing out, Gold price’s bullish conviction could likely peter out.

If Gold buyers fail to find acceptance above the 50-day SMA at $2,670 on a daily closing basis, sellers will likely jump back, sending the bright metal back toward the previous day’s low of $2,621.

The next support aligns at the weekly low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,573 cannot be ruled out. 

On the flip side, a sustained move above the 50-day SMA at $2,670 could open up the upside toward the $2,700 level.

Further north, the November 25 high of $2,721 will be put to the test.

First Pullback Following Breakout

A decisive break out of the triangle pattern triggered with a move above 3.02 on November 20. Since the bull breakout has only just begun, an eventual continuation to higher prices is anticipated once the current correction is complete. This is just the first pullback following the breakout through key price levels.

Not only was there a triangle breakout but also a clear continuation of the rising trend that began from the 2024 low in February. It is shown as a rising ABCD pattern (orange) on the chart. Within that trend is a smaller ABCD pattern (purple) that rises from the August swing low. That second pattern triggered a bullish continuation on the rally above 3.02.

Red Candles Show Distribution

It remains to be seen whether the correction will be short in duration or prolonged. Resistance was seen at the top of the rising trend channel last week from a high of 3.56. A sharp intraday decline followed, culminating in a bearish reversal day. The parallel channel shows an organized price structure that reflects symmetry in the behavior or price. A rising middle line (dotted) shows price action roughly equal distance above and below the line.

Channel Symmetry Targets Lower Line

Given that there is symmetry, there is a good chance that the lower channel line is tested as support before the bearish correction is complete. This doesn’t mean that it will reach the lower line, just that there is a good chance that it might. The recent two long red candles, first on November 22 and then again yesterday, show distribution, and they may be providing a clue that there is more selling to come before the correction completes. However, that outlook would switch if there was a sharp rise above Wednesday’s high of 3.47 and it was sustained.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.