• Gold price jumped to a two-week high of $2,721 before correcting sharply on Monday.
• Fading political and geopolitical risks outweigh falling US Dollar and Treasury bonds, weighing on Gold price.
• Gold price spots an impending Bear Cross on the daily chart as the RSI stalls its bullish momentum.    

After witnessing intense volatility in Monday’s opening hour, Gold’s price is licking its wounds near $2,700. The bright metal enjoyed good two-way trades before sellers returned to the game after five straight days.  

Gold price sellers look to extend control

Gold price picked up fresh bids and jumped to nearly a two-week high of $2,721 in the early dealing. The US Dollar saw a bearish opening gap in tandem with the US Treasury bond yields. Asian traders hit their desks and reacted to the weekend news that US President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his Treasury Secretary.

Bessent’s appointment to the critical position in the Trump administration assured the US Treasury market, as he is seen as an old Wall Street hand and a fiscal conservative. This narrative triggered a sharp retracement in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields, testing the 4.30% level as of writing.

The US Dollar (USD) tracked the sell-off in the US Treasury bond yields, currently trading 0.65% lower on the day against its major currency rivals.

Despite the ongoing pullback in the USD and the Treasury bond yields, the non-yielding Gold price cannot capitalize on it, correcting sharply from higher levels.

The latest downtick in Gold price could be attributed to improving risk sentiment, courtesy of easing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Lebanon, and reducing uncertainty around the Trump administration. Citing Israeli and US officials. Axios reported that Israel and Lebanon are on the cusp of a ceasefire agreement.

Gold buyers are also cashing in ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation data amid a holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week.

All eyes remain on the geopolitical developments between Israel and Lebanon and Russia-Ukraine in the absence of any top-tier US economic data release on Monday. No speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers could leave Gold traders at the mercy of risk trends.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Having reclaimed all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on Friday, Gold price has paused its recovery momentum near $2,720.

The turn lower in the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) could also be linked to the renewed weakness in Gold price. The leading indicator currently trades near 56 after testing the 58 level.

An impending Bear Cross continues to pose as a headwind for Gold price. The 21-day SMA is closing in to cut the 50-day SMA from above. If that happens on a daily closing basis, it will validate the bearish crossover.

These technical indicators suggest that the tide could be turning in favor of Gold sellers.

The immediate support is around $2,670, where the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA close in.

A sustained break below that level could initiate a fresh downtrend toward $2,600. The November 20 low of $2,619 will be tested ahead of that.

On the other hand, Gold buyers need a daily candlestick closing above the November 5 high of $2.750 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,790.

• Gold price attracts some buyers to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session.
• Heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine lift the Gold price. 
• The cautious stance from the Fed might cap the upside for Gold. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) jumps to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) provides some support to the USD-denominated Gold price. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions continue to underpin safe-haven assets like yellow metal. 

Investors will closely monitor the developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflicts. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, days after reports said Washington DC, had allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russian territory. This, in turn, might boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the precious metal price. 

“It’s really one main geopolitical factor that’s at play here in the gold market over the course of the last several days – the increased tensions between Ukraine and Russia is probably most notable,” noted David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

On the other hand, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials remain cautious about rate reductions, which might cap the Gold’s upside. The market is adjusting its expectations for the Fed’s cuts next year as inflation is becoming a bigger concern. Higher rates reduce the appeal of gold. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in 50.9% odds that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, down from around 69.5% a month ago. 

Breakout Triggered Above Thursday’s High

A rally above today’s high will trigger a bullish breakout above the line before crude quickly encounters potential resistance around the 50-Day MA pivot, which is at 71.23. That is followed by the top of a declining consolidation pattern (red box) from around 73.15 to 73.27. Crude missed a chance to continue to fall following a bearish trigger on Monday.

Instead, it dropped below prior lows but then quickly reversed higher and ended the day with a bullish key reversal day. The bullish continuation of that one-day reversal has been struggling as crude is rising into a swath of potential resistance, given that it remains within a larger consolidation pattern.

Rebound from False Breakdown

Today’s advance showed strength by reclaiming the 20-Day MA (purple) above 69.97. Given where crude is trading at the time of this writing, it still has a chance to close the day above the line. If it does, that would be another minor sign of strength that needs follow-through. A breakout through a key price level in either direction that quickly reverses in a decisive fashion, is a failure of a breakout attempt. Typically, the reversal of the breakout can be accompanied by sharp moves in the opposite direction. That may still happen with crude if today’s high is exceeded. This does not mean that it will do so, it is only a possibility until further signs of strength are seen.

Watch Weekly High of 70.84

There is another price level representing a key pivot that also needs to be considered. Last week’s high was 70.84. Therefore, an advance above that high will trigger a bullish reversal on the weekly time frame. It would be reached shortly after a breakout above today’s high.

Near-term Support at 69.16

On the downside, a drop below today’s low of 69.16 may lead to a bearish pullback to test support around this week’s lows. Since resistance is being seen around where some signs of resistance would be expected, at the downtrend line, that scenario may yet play out.

• Silver rebounds to reclaim the $31.00 mark, buoyed by a drop in US Treasury yields and ongoing market dynamics.
• Technical landscape shows resistance at the 50-day SMA of $31.75, with potential targets extending to $32.00 and $33.00.
• Key support levels identified at $31.00 and $30.00, with further downside protection near the November low of $29.68.

Silver price recovered some ground on Friday and reclaimed the $31.00 a troy ounce, boosted by falling US Treasury bond yields and despite a firm US Dollar. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.28, a gain of over 1.62%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal has consolidated within the $30.50-$31.50 range for the last four days, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75. If Silver extends its rally above the latter, the $32.00 psychological figure would be up next. Once cleared, further upside is seen, with the $33.00 mark up next, ahead of the October 29 peak at $34.54.

For a bearish continuation, XAG/USD first support would be $31.00. Once surpassed, the next demand zone would be $30.00, followed by the November 14 low of $29.68. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $28.91.

Oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest buyers are gathering steam, yet the RSI is still below its neutral line. Hence, the bias is neutral-bullish.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

At 14:13 GMT, Natural Gas futures are trading $3.187, down $0.152 or -4.55%.

How Is Weather Impacting Demand Expectations?

Natural gas prices soared earlier this week on forecasts for a colder-than-normal pattern between November 28 and early December. NatGasWeather reported that frosty air in the northern U.S. is expected to elevate national demand during this period. Overnight weather model updates, however, introduced a slightly warmer outlook, sparking Friday’s pullback.

Despite the moderation, heating degree day (HDD) data from GFS and EC models remain well above normal, supporting expectations for robust heating demand. If subsequent weather updates restore a colder bias, price recovery could be swift.

Are Storage Levels Adding Downward Pressure?

The latest EIA storage report showed a small draw of 3 Bcf, leaving total working gas at 3,969 Bcf as of November 15. Current inventories are 141 Bcf higher than last year and 239 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,730 Bcf. While this drawdown was less bearish than the forecasted 2 Bcf injection, elevated supply levels continue to weigh on the market, underscoring the need for sustained demand increases to drive further price rallies.

What’s the Market Outlook?

In the short term, natural gas faces bearish risks if support at $3.168 fails, potentially opening the door to further declines toward $3.044–$3.057. Conversely, colder weather forecasts could cap losses and reignite bullish momentum if resistance at $3.332 and $3.573 is breached. For now, ample supply and slightly moderating weather suggest cautious sentiment, tilting the market toward a bearish outlook.

• Silver price soars to near $31.40 on heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Russia warned the UK to strike with intercontinental ballistic missiles that have a range of several thousand kilometers.
• Traders lean towards the option of an interest rate cut by the Fed in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) strives to establish above $31.00 in Friday’s European session. The white metal surges to near $31.40 as demand for safe-haven bets has strengthened after Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of several thousand kilometers on Ukraine’s defense facilities in Dnipro.

The move appeared as retaliation given that Ukraine used United States (US) supplied ATACMS weapons and the United Kingdom (UK) provided storm shadow missiles to attack deep in Russia over the week.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has also warned the UK to strike with the same ballistic missile that their defense facility used against Ukraine, PA Media reported. Putin stated that their nation is entitled to use weapons against those nations who supplies weapons to Ukraine.

In response to that, the spokesperson of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “Only serves to strengthen our resolve and to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to act in self-defense against Russia’s reckless and illegal invasion.”

The scenario of heightened geopolitical uncertainty improves the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Apart from Silver, the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD) has also strengthened. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, posts a fresh two-year high at 108.00.

Meanwhile, investors look for fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 56% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50%.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price delivers a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $31.40 after declining to near $29.70. The white metal weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The upward-sloping trendline from the February 29 low of $22.30 will act as key support for the Silver price around $29.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price gains ground due to safe-haven flows amid the rising Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the Ukraine conflict is escalating into a global confrontation.
• The non-interest-bearing Silver may find challenges due to the higher opportunity cost associated with higher interest rates.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses, trading around $31.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. The prices of safe-haven assets like Silver gained ground due to the escalated situation in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that the Ukraine conflict is escalating toward a global confrontation, citing the use of US and British-supplied weapons by Ukraine to target Russia, according to Reuters.

Putin stated that Russia had retaliated by deploying a new hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile against a Ukrainian military facility, with further strikes possible. He added that civilians would receive warnings ahead of any future attacks involving these weapons.

Meanwhile, commodity traders continued to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook following the unexpected drop in US Initial Jobless Claims. Claims fell to 213,000 for the week ending November 15, down from a revised 219,000 (previously 217,000) in the prior week and below the forecast of 220,000. This development has fueled speculation about a slower pace of Fed rate cuts.

Futures traders now see a 57.8% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by a quarter point, down from around 72.2% last week, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool. Non-interest-bearing Silver may face challenges due to the higher opportunity cost associated with higher interest rates.

However, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee commented on Thursday that inflation is on track to reach 2%. Goolsbee noted that over the next year, interest rates are likely to be significantly lower than their current levels. He also suggested that it might be prudent to slow the pace of rate cuts as the Fed approaches a neutral rate level.

Initial Short-term Target Zone Reached

Initial targets from two rising ABCD patterns (orange, purple) were reached today, along the 127.2% extended target of a smaller ABCD pattern (light blue). That could lead to a deeper pullback to test support levels before natural gas is ready to proceed higher.

In addition, the 3.39 swing high from January was reclaimed. That swing high is part of the price structure of lower swing highs. Each time natural gas breaks out above a swing high it continues to show strength. Key levels to watch for support include the 3.16 swing high and the 3.02 swing high. A little lower is Wednesday’s low of 2.94, which is close to the top boundary line for the symmetrical triangle. Below there is the 20-Day MA at 2.82.

Pullback Should Find Support Above 3.02 if Bulls Remain in Charge

Nevertheless, if a pullback comes before a new trend high, it will likely be met with support that turns the price of natural gas back up. Yesterday’s bull breakout was potentially significant as several breakouts were triggered around the same time. So far, the bullish reaction following the initial 3.02 breakout is supportive of higher prices. A key upside target is the 2023 peak of 3.64. It makes up part of the downtrend structure. There are also a couple extended targets from the rising ABCD patterns around that level.

Triangle Pattern Points to 3.78

A decisive breakout above that peak would trigger a continuation of the developing uptrend and further confirm the breakout of the triangle pattern. The measure of the larger triangle, that includes the 1.52 swing low, points to a potential target of 3.78 when based on a percentage move. That is above the 2023 peak. When measuring the price distance, the target is around 4.93.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price recovers mildly above $31.00 on heightened geopolitical tensions.
• Ukraine launched UK-supplied missiles in Russia, resulting in a fresh escalation in the war.
• Investors await the flash US S&P Global PMI for November.

Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back slightly above $31.00 in Thursday’s North American session after a corrective to near $30.80 on Wednesday. The white metal rebounds on fresh escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, which forced investors to flee to safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

Geopolitical tensions renewed as Ukraine launched United Kingdom (UK)-supplied missiles into Russia, a day after it fired Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) provided by United States (US) President Joe Biden that fuelled risks of third world war.

Historically, the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver, improves in times of uncertainty or heightened geopolitical risks.

The outlook of the Silver price remains uncertain as investors doubt whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in the December meeting. The probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% in December has come down to 56% from 72% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, wobbles around 106.60. 10-year US Treasury yields hover around 4.40%.

Going forward, investors will focus on the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for November, which will be published on Friday. Economists expect the overall private sector activity to have improved.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price stays on track toward the upward-sloping trendline around $29.00, plotted from the February low of $22.30, which also coincides with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The white metal faces selling pressure near the 20-day EMA, which trades around $31.40.

The asset weakened after the breakdown of the horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 40.00. A bearish momentum will trigger if the RSI (14) sustains below the same.

Silver daily chart

• Prices of Gold extended their march north to the $2,670 zone.
• The US Dollar maintained its bid bias amid higher US yields.
• XAU/USD’s immediate up-barrier now comes at $2,700/oz.

Gold prices extended their climb on Thursday, supported by steady geopolitical tensions, despite a firm session for the US Dollar (USD) and modest gains in US yields across the board.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with broader market instability, has underpinned the precious metal’s strong rebound this week. 

Gold marked its fourth consecutive session of gains, surpassing the $2,670 mark per troy ounce and shifting focus toward the critical $2,700 resistance level. This zone poses a significant challenge as bullion looks to build on its recovery momentum.

The rally also coincided with a stronger USD, bolstered by the ongoing “Trump-trade” rally, and US yields, which regained some strength across various maturities.

As the week progresses, attention will turn to key global economic data releases, with preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) set to take center stage toward the week’s end. 

Additionally, market participants are closely following comments from central bank officials, particularly after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent cautious statements. Powell highlighted the resilience of the US economy but stressed the importance of prudence when evaluating potential future rate cuts.

Looking ahead, gold may face increased scrutiny as recent US economic data and expectations of inflationary Republican policies have heightened the likelihood of interest rates remaining elevated for an extended period. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to diminish its appeal due to the metal’s lack of yield.

From a market positioning standpoint, speculative interest in gold has weakened. Non-commercial traders reduced their net long positions to approximately 236.5K contracts as of November 12, the lowest level since early June, according to the latest CFTC positioning report. This reduction in long positions, coupled with a second consecutive decline in open interest, indicates a potential loss of momentum in gold’s recent upward trajectory.

Gold daily chart

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows a continuation of the recent breakout of the bullish 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,557, which is near the November low of $2,536. Moving higher, the current weekly peak at $2,673 (November 21) marks the first key resistance area. Beyond this, the next target is the $2,700 round level, followed by the weekly high of $2,749 (November 5).

On the downside, a swift break below the 100-day SMA could shift focus toward the November low of $2,536 (November 14), which serves as a decent support level.

In the short term, the 4-hour chart suggests further room for the current recovery to progress. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has deflated to the sub-68 region, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at nearly 40 is indicative that the current uptrend is gathering strength.

Looking upward, the next key resistance to watch is $2,673, followed by the critical 200-day SMA at $2,678. On the downside, the 55-SMA comes first at $2,613, ahead of $2,536.