• Gold price declines to around $2,695 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• The firmer Greenback undermines the USD-denominated Gold price. 
• The uncertainty and elevated geopolitical tensions could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its decline to near $2,695 during the early Asian session on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) broadly ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration exerts some selling pressure on the yellow metal. 

Analysts expect the gold price to face volatility before Trump takes office. Traders will closely watch the developments surrounding potential trade policies. Any of Trump’s aggressive comments about using trade tariffs to support the US manufacturing sector could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. 

However, the softer-than-expected US inflation data last week could support the precious metal as it might trigger the speculation of more than a single rate cut from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders await Trump’s inauguration on Monday for fresh catalysts about executive orders that he plans to issue after he is sworn into office. “The uncertainty in regard to the policies that President Trump is going to put in place has been one of the supportive factors for gold,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

Additionally, the persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price. The Guardian reported that the Russian military took control of two more settlements in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region on Saturday, the latest in a series of gains it has reported in its steady advance westward.

Gold, often seen as a companion asset, remains a key influence on silver prices. Gold’s movement near critical resistance levels provided some support for silver sentiment. However, silver’s substantial industrial demand component introduces additional challenges, particularly as global economic uncertainty clouds growth prospects​​.

Market Forecast: Can Silver Gain Momentum?

Silver’s ability to overcome $30.44 will determine the market’s short-term outlook. A breakout above this resistance could drive prices toward $32.33, with potential for further gains if macroeconomic data aligns favorably. Failure to clear this level, however, could see the metal retreat to $28.75. This level could act as a floor, or the trigger point for further losses.

The week ahead presents significant data points, including U.S. manufacturing reports, inflation figures, and Federal Reserve commentary. Traders should prepare for increased volatility, as silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial asset ensures it remains at the crossroads of economic and geopolitical forces.

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) opened today’s trading with clear positivity to surpass 100000.00$ barrier and confirm the continuation of the bullish trend domination on the intraday basis, and the way is open to achieve our next waited target at 103500.00$, noting that surpassing this level will push the price to head towards the historical high at 108350.45$ as a next main station.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 99695.00$ will put the price under negative pressure and might target the key support 95195.00$ before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 99500.00$ support and 104500.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Silver price trades negatively to press on the key support 30.63$, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as the price needs to hold above this level to keep the positive scenario active for today, which its next target located at 31.63$, reminding you that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to suffer intraday losses and visit 29.63$ mainly.

The expected trading range for today is between 30.50$ support and 31.40$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver faces rejection near the $31.00 confluence and snaps a three-day winning streak.
• Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $30.40-$30.35 support.
• Bulls need to wait for a move beyond the trend-channel hurdle before placing fresh bets.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers on Friday and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day winning streak to the $31.00 neighborhood, or over a one-month high touched the previous day. The white metal remains depressed through the first half of the European session and currently trades around the $30.60-$30.55 area, down 0.70% for the day. 

From a technical perspective, the recent move-up witnessed since the beginning of this month stalls near a confluence hurdle comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the top end of a descending channel extending from a multi-year top touched in October. A sustained breakout through the said barrier should pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAG/USD.

Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in positive territory and are away from being in the overbought zone, the commodity might then accelerate the momentum towards the $31.70 hurdle. The subsequent move-up should allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 round-figure mark and climb further towards testing the December monthly swing high, around the $32.30-$32.35 region. 

On the flip side, any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $30.40-$30.35 region, which, in turn, should help limit the downside near the $30.00 psychological mark. A convincing break below the latter might prompt technical selling and drag the XAG/USD towards the $29.55-$29.50 support en route to the $29.00 mark and the $28.75-$28.70 area, or a multi-month low touched in December.

XAG/USD daily chart

Gold price shows some slight bearish bias to head towards potential test to 2700.00$ barrier, waiting to get positive motive that push the price to resume the main bullish wave, which its targets begin by surpassing 2730.00$ to confirm opening the way to head towards 2790.00$.

On the other hand, we should note that breaking 2680.00$ will stop the bullish wave and force the price to turn to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 2700.00$ support and 2740.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) opened today’s trading with clear positivity to surpass 100000.00$ barrier and confirm the continuation of the bullish trend domination on the intraday basis, and the way is open to achieve our next waited target at 103500.00$, noting that surpassing this level will push the price to head towards the historical high at 108350.45$ as a next main station.

Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bullish trend for the upcoming period, noting that breaking 99695.00$ will put the price under negative pressure and might target the key support 95195.00$ before any new attempt to rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 99500.00$ support and 104500.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver price could appreciate further due to robust economic figures from China released on Friday.
• China’s Industrial Production grew by 6.2% YoY in December, marking the fastest industrial output growth since April.
• The non-yielding Silver appreciated as softer US data sparked speculation of the Fed implementing two interest rate cuts in 2025.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds steady after three consecutive days of gains, trading near $30.80 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Friday. The industrial demand for the grey metal may rise further, supported by strong economic data from China.

China’s Industrial Production grew by 6.2% year-over-year in December, exceeding market expectations and the 5.4% growth rate recorded in November. This marks the fastest industrial output growth since April, driven largely by stronger manufacturing activity following stimulus measures introduced in September.

Additionally, China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 5.4% YoY in Q4 2024, up from 4.6% in Q3. Quarterly, the economy grew by 1.6% in Q4, aligning with market forecasts, compared to a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter.

The price of the non-yielding metal found support amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates this year. This dovish outlook for the Fed gained traction following weaker-than-expected US Retail Sales data released on Thursday. Retail sales rose by 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in December, totaling $729.2 billion. This figure fell short of market expectations for a 0.6% increase and was lower than the previous month’s 0.8% rise (revised from 0.7%).

Furthermore, softer-than-expected underlying inflation in the US has fueled speculation that the Fed could implement two rate cuts this year. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.2% year-over-year (YoY) in December, slightly below both the previous month’s 3.3% increase and market forecasts of 3.3%. Monthly, the core CPI grew by 0.2%, compared to a 0.3% rise in the prior month.

Silver, a non-interest-bearing asset, finds additional support as US Treasury bond yields for the 2-year and 10-year notes stand at 4.23% and 4.60%, respectively, at the time of writing. Both yields are on track for a weekly decline of over 3%.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD’s performance against six major currencies, hovers near 109.00 and remains subdued for the fifth consecutive session. A weaker USD makes Silver more affordable for buyers using foreign currencies, boosting demand for the precious metal.

In addition, expectations of lower interest rates extend to the United Kingdom (UK), where economic data showed mixed signals. British GDP grew by 0.1% month-over-month (MoM) in November 2024, rebounding from contractions of 0.1% in both October and September. However, this growth fell short of the anticipated 0.2% increase.

The USDCHF price continued to decline to break the intraday bullish channel’s support line, to head towards achieving expected decline in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 0.9035 – 0.9014 levels.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that the expected decline is temporary, waiting to resume the main bullish trend, taking into consideration that breaching 0.9145 will stop the suggested negative scenario and push the price to rise again.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.9035 support and 0.9180 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish temporarily

• Gold price treads water below the monthly high of $2,725 early Friday.  
• The US Dollar and Treasury bond yields sustain correction amid renewed dovish bets.
• Gold traders could cash in, repositioning for Trump’s inauguration on Monday.
• Technically, Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dip’ trade, per the daily chart.

Gold’s price has paused its three-day uptrend to monthly highs of $2,725 as buyers catch a breather ahead of the weekend and US President-elect Donald Trump’s inaugural ceremony on Monday.  

Gold price could pullback before the next leg up

Gold price has entered a bullish consolidation phase and could risk a near-term correction before resuming the uptrend toward all-time highs of $2,790. The bright metal fails to find any inspiration from stronger-than-expected China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024, which came in at 5.4% over the year, compared to the 5.% estimates and the previous reading of 4.6%. Chinese Retail Sales and Industrial Production data also surpassed forecasts. China is the world’s top Gold consumer.

Chinese economy achieved its 5% growth target in the final quarter of last week but that optimism seems to be overshadowed by concerns over China’s property market and looming tariffs proposed by US President-elect Trump.

However, the downside in Gold price remains cushioned by reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver two interest rate cuts this year, following the tame December inflation data released earlier this week. Dovish Fed bets continue to exert downward pressure on the US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), underpinning the non-interest-bearing Gold price.

Mixed US Retail Sales and disappointing Initial Jobless Claims data, released on Thursday, added to the market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Initial Claims for state unemployment benefits rose to a seasonally adjusted 217,000 for the week ended Jan. 11, the Labor Department said on Thursday, missing the expected 210,000 figure.

However, Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s commentary exacerbated the pain in US Treasury bond yields and the Greenback. “If price pressures continue on the current path of decelerating, it’s reasonable to think rate cuts could possibly happen in the first half of the year,” Waller said in Thursday’s interview with CNBC.

Next of note for Gold traders, in terms of economic data, are the mid-tier US housing data and Industrial Production. The data could provide fresh trading incentives for Gold price. Further, the end-of-the-week flows and profit-taking on the recent long positions could also act as headwinds for the bullion.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to favor of Gold buyers as the previous week’s symmetrical triangle breakout remains in play and the yellow metal holds well above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA).

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has flattened above the midline, currently near 63.50, suggesting that Gold price could see a brief pullback before moving higher.

Gold price eyes acceptance above the key static resistance at $2,726 to extend the uptrend toward the $2,750 psychological barrier. The next target is aligned at the record high of $2,790.

If the correction unfolds, Gold price will find initial demand at the previous day’s low of $2,690, below which the January 15 low of $2,670 will be tested.

Deeper declines will challenge the powerful support area near $2,745, where the 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA, 100-SMA and the triangle convergence meet.