Natural Gas Outlook

As we close out the year, the latest headline is that there is a nasty arctic blast coming to the US that will drive up demand for a couple of weeks. Here in lines the conundrum of trading natural gas for retail traders. They have to focus on the next 10 days. You have to know the amount of storage, the amount of transmission across lines, the amount of exports to Asia, and now possibly the European Union, as it looks like natural gas won’t be flowing through Ukraine anymore from Russia. So, with all these things combining, you would assume that natural gas should shoot straight up in the air, and it has to a point, but the candlestick you’re looking at on the weekly chart is a result of low liquidity as well. So, you can only read so much into it.

As a cyclical trade, natural gas typically does fairly well through the month of January and I think this year will be more of the same. But sometimes towards the end of Q1, you’ll see natural gas plummet, unless, of course, something changes out of the ordinary. I think you’ve got a situation where we probably pull back in the very first few sessions of Q1, have another bounce, and that bounce is when I would be very cautious about getting long of natural gas again.

• Gold prices on course to end 2024 with a 27% gain, the best yearly performance since 2010.
• 2025 outlook is positive due to geopolitical risks, central bank buying, and safe-haven demand.
• Trump administration policies present both risks and opportunities for gold prices.
• Technical analysis shows potential for further gains, but a deeper correction before reaching new highs is possible.

Most Read: EUR/USD Tug-of-War Continues, US Dollar Index (DXY) Steady

Gold prices slipped yesterday as a stronger US Dollar, anticipation of a hawkish Fed and thin liquidity all contributed. Uncertainties around tariffs and challenges in 2025 are keeping the precious metals appeal going for now and capping further losses.

Gold prices are on track to end the year with a remarkable 27% increase, marking their best yearly performance since 2010.

Currency Strength Chart: Strongest – Weakest – JPY, GBP, EUR, AUD, CHF, USD, NZD, CAD – 

Source: FinancialJuice (click to enlarge)

2025 Outlook For Gold

Looking at the year ahead and 2025 and it will no doubt be interesting. Geopolitical risk remains a threat with the Middle East still on edge and the Russia-Ukraine situation no closer to a resolution. Just yesterday there were rumors that a proposal by the incoming Trump administration to delay Ukraine joining NATO by 10 years will not be accepted by the Kremlin.

Anyone with knowledge of the situation there will know that this will not change as the main reason for the conflict (at least from a Russian perspective) is Ukraine joining NATO. These developments are likely to keep some geopolitical risk premium in play and keep safe haven demand going. 

Global Central Banks were one of the main drivers of the Gold price rise in 2024. This is expected to continue in 2025. The World Gold Council survey revealed in the second half of 2024 that Central Banks are likely to purchase more Gold in the next 12 months. This should further bolster demand for the precious metal.

When it comes to risks affecting Gold prices moving forward, it does get challenging. The reason for this is the incoming Trump administration is expected to do good things for the economy but some policies could lead to higher interest rates. This could weigh on Gold prices. 

This is a double-edged sword however, in that the increased risk of uncertainty from Trump policy and concern around the impact of tariffs could actually bolster the demand for safe haven assets and thus Gold. 

All in all analysts are largely pricing in further gains for the precious metal in 2025, personally I do see the potential for upside as well. However, I would not rule out a deeper correction before price does actually breach the current ATH resting around the 2790 handle. 

The Week Ahead

Today could potentially be a slow day with the New Years holiday tomorrow. In such a case we could see a similar repeat to yesterday’s price action with a slow grind to the downside.  

The holiday tomorrow will be followed by a return on Thursday January 2, 2025 which could bring about some volatility to markets as liquidity is expected to start returning to normal. Friday brings the last piece of high impact data from the US with the ISM Manufacturing PMI release.

The data is unlikely to change the overall narrative of the USD and thus any moves inspired by the data is likely to remain short-lived. 

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, this analysis is a follow up from the technicals last week. Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Analysis: Bullish Structure Emerges

Gold appeared poised for a move higher last week and it very much obliged. The precious metal ran into the first key area of resistance around the 2639 before falling to close the week around 2620.

The two-hour chart below shows the clear change in structure after topping out at 2639 on December 26. Since then, price has printed a series of lower highs and lower lows, breaching the 2600 psychological level briefly yesterday. 

There is a descending trendline in play on the two-hour chart with a candle break and close above the trendline potentially leading to a retest of 2639.

A break below the $2600 handle may find support at the long-term ascending trendline which rests around the 2592-2596 range. 

Gold (XAU/USD) Two-Hour (H4) Chart, December 31, 2024

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

Resistance

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Bearish Price Action

Today’s bearish price action follows signs of resistance seen yesterday after the 4.20 trend high was reached. Once reached sellers took back control and dropped natural gas to end the day a little below the halfway point of the day’s price range and below the prior trend high at 4.01. That is not bullish price action following a new trend high and it was further indicated today.

Top Channel Line Resistance

Resistance was seen yesterday around the top parallel line of a rising trend channel. Given the subsequent bearish reaction there is the potential for the price of natural gas to eventually target the lower channel line. The line starts from the April 2024 bottom. Of course, that line is quite a way down. Whether it is reached or not, it provides supporting technical clues for a possible bearish correction that may see natural gas fall through key support levels.

Moving Average Support at 20-Day Line

If weakness persists a test of support around the 20-Day MA at a minimum, now at 3.42, looks likely. It can be watched along with the nearby rising trendline. Although the 20-Day line has reflected support on several days recently due to daily closes above the 20-Day line, the line was breached earlier in each relative trading session. Maybe this time natural gas falls below the 20-Day MA but does not recover within the same day to close above the line. That might be a change in character, and if it happens the recent 3.29 swing low will be at risk of being broken.

Bearish Weekly Pattern Forming

A bigger concern is reflected in the developing weekly chart (not shown). If natural gas stays weak or weakens into this week’s close it is set to leave a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. Given that it occurred following a successful of resistance at the top of the rising trend channel, is the market’s way of telling us to pay attention.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Love image gcoffee price world

At the end of the trading session, the price of Robusta coffee on the London floor at 15:30 p.m. on December 31, 2024 had a very strong price decrease of 29-38 USD/ton, fluctuating between 4690 – 4921 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 4921 USD/ton (down 32 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 4855 USD/ton (down 29 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 4776 USD/ton (down 38 USD/ton); the monthly delivery term September 2025 increased by 4690 USD/ton (down 36 USD/ton).

Meanwhile, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor also updated the December 31, 2024 direction with different increases and decreases and very slight fluctuations. Specifically, the decrease is from 0,65 – 1,65 cents/lb, fluctuating from 316.95 – 321.00 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 321.00 cents/lb (down 1.65 cents/lb), the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 316.95 cents/lb (down 0,65 cents/lb); Meanwhile, the increase from 0,70 – 1,45 cents/lb, ranging from 305.15 – 311.75 cents/lb, the monthly delivery period July 2025 is 311.75 cents/lb (up 0.70 cents/lb) and the monthly delivery period September 2025 is 305.15 cents/lb (up 1.45 cents/lb).

At the end of the trading session, the price of Brazilian Arabica coffee increased slightly, updated as follows: The increase was from 0.30 – 0.95 USD/ton, ranging from 375.10 – 396.15 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery period May 2025 was 396.15 USD/ton (up 0.35 USD/ton); the monthly delivery period July 2025 was 388.00 USD/ton (up 0.95 USD/ton) and the monthly delivery period September 2025 was 375.10 USD/ton (up 0.30 USD/ton). In particular, the monthly delivery period March 2025 was 400.00 USD/ton (down 1.30 USD/ton).

Domestic coffee prices turn down

According to information from Giacaphe.com, updated coffee prices at 15:30 p.m. today December 31, 2024, domestic coffee prices slightly decreased by an average of 120.400 VND/kg, slightly decreased by -700 VND/kg compared to yesterday’s trading session.

Weasel coffee products of Thai Chau Da Lat Company. Photo: Nguyen Phuong

The highest coffee purchase price in key regions of the Central Highlands was recorded at 120.500 VND/kg. Specifically, today’s coffee price at Dak Lak at 120.300 VND/kg, down -700 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 119.700 VND/kg, down -800 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai Today the price is 120.300 VND/kg, down -700 VND/kg and the price of coffee at Dak Nong Today price is 120.500 VND/kg, down -700 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 1/ 1 / 2025

Domestic coffee prices on December 31, 2024 fluctuated from 119.700 – 120.500 VND/kg, with the highest in Dak Nong (120.500 VND/kg) and the lowest in Lam Dong (119.700 VND/kg). In the world market, Robusta and Arabica coffee prices tended to decrease slightly in the most recent trading session.

Forecast January 1, 2025, coffee prices may continue to fluctuate downward due to the influence of factors such as exchange rates, production and market demand. However, as tomorrow is the New Year holiday, trading activities may be suspended, leading to little price volatility.

Created on December 30, 2024

• During my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has taken front and center stage, due to the fact that it rallied quite significantly during the day that had almost no volume and all other markets.
• This does make a certain amount of sense, because quite frankly I think the trade involving shorting oil is probably about to get blown up.
• The $72.50 level above is an area all be watching early in January, because breaking above that gets the market rolling to the upside rather quickly in my estimation.

Global Demand

Global demand is a little bit of a mixed bag, but when it comes to the United States, it’s obvious that the US economy is stronger than many others, and I think a lot of people will look at the WTI Crude Oil market through that prism. With this being the case, you have a situation where the market is likely to continue to favor buying dips, and between now and the Non-Farm Payroll announcement in January, it’s possible that we market will drift back and forth, but I think it remains a buy on the dip situation. If the employment numbers in January come out strong, it’s very likely that we will continue to see demand for the crude oil market strengthen, as it would signify that the US economy is still very strong.

On the downside, the $65 level is a massive support level that you must pay close attention to, and I think you would be witnessing a significant breakdown if we were to fall below there now. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but it is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind just in case. Any move toward the $68 level I suspect will find plenty of buyers at this point, as it has been somewhat supportive over the last couple of weeks. Either way, I think crude oil is about to start rallying for a bigger move, but we probably need to get through the holidays first.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold price edges lower to $2,600 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
• The Fed’s cautious stance might drag the precious metal lower. 
• Uncertainty and geopolitical tensions could boost Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset.

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $2,600 during the early Asian section on Tuesday. Traders await fresh catalysts, including the US interest rate outlook and potential tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. The markets are likely to be quiet before year-end. 

The cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could weigh on the yellow metal as higher interest rates tend to reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted earlier this month that the US central bank might be cautious on further rate cuts after delivering a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut. The latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or “dot plot”, indicated the Fed’s intention to reduce the number of interest rate cuts next year from four to just two quarter-percent reductions.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House might intensify global trade tensions, fueling geopolitical crises and likely lifting the Gold price. “Geopolitical tensions have driven gold’s rise this year and will likely continue into 2025, especially with Trump’s return to office,” noted Kelvin Wong, OANDA’s senior market analyst for Asia Pacific.

Resistance Seen at Top of Channel

Given today’s bearish reaction around the top channel line, it seems like the market has recognized the price zone around the line. There was also the completion of a rising ABCD pattern extended by the 161.8% Fibonacci ratio at 4.06, and of course natural gas plowed right through that price area. Subsequently, the next higher price zone looks like it starts around 4.33. That’s where another ABCD pattern (red) reaches its initial target.

Another Test of Support Around 20-Day MA?

If natural gas continues to get rejected from resistance around the top channel line, this could lead to a correction. However, notice that it could keep rising and stay below the top channel line until almost reaching the 4.33 target. Nonetheless, targets only provide a guide and price action needs to be watched for new clues and changes in the outlook.

Today’s price action has begun to generate a potentially higher weekly high and higher low for this week. The weekly trend structure will remain in place unless there is a drop below last week’s low of 3.29.

Rally Risks Getting Tired

This means that a pullback from today’s high would not be unusual and that the near-term bull trend structure remains unless there is a drop below 3.29. Profit taking as seen in a pullback may also occur during a period of consolidation. Keep in mind that long-term bullish signals recently triggered and were confirmed by additional signal of strength. A bullish breakout of a large symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on November 20, and a long-term trend continuation signal occurred on a rally above the 3.16 swing high from June on the initial breakout day.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Love hình giá cà phê world

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor, updated at 15:30 a.m. on December 30, 2024: monthly delivery term March 2025 ended at 4.953 USD/ton; monthly delivery term May 2025 ended at 4884 USD/ton; monthly delivery term July 2025 ended at 4814 USD/ton and monthly delivery term September 2025 ended at 4726 USD/ton.

Trong khi đó, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York kỳ hạn giao tháng March 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 322,65 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 317.60 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 311.05 cent/lb và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 đóng cửa ở mức 303.70 cent/lb.

Đối với giá cà phê Arabica Brazil được cập nhật như sau: kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 kết thúc ở mức 402.55 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 kết thúc ở mức 395.80 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 kết thúc ở mức 387.05 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 kết thúc ở mức 374.30 USD/tấn.

Domestic coffee prices increased slightly

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 30, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước tăng nhẹ trung bình ở mức 121.100 đồng/kg, tăng nhẹ +200 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

Giá cà phê cao nhất thu mua ở các vùng trọng điểm của Tây Nguyên được ghi nhận ở mức 121.200 đồng/kg và được ghi nhận tăng đều +200 đồng/kg ở các tỉnh. Cụ thể, giá cà phê hôm nay tại Dak Lak at 121.000 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 120.500 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai Today the price is 121.000 VND/kg and the price of coffee at Dak Nong hôm nay có giá 121.200 đồng/kg. Như vậy, tỉnh Đắk Nông vẫn là tỉnh thu mua cà phê cao nhất so với các tỉnh còn lại.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 31/ 12 / 2024

Ngày December 30, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước ghi nhận trung bình ở mức 121.100 đồng/kg, tăng nhẹ 200 đồng so với ngày hôm trước. Đây là một dấu hiệu tích cực cho người trồng cà phê trong bối cảnh thị trường đang có nhiều biến động.

Cà phê chín tại xã Liên Hiệp, huyện Đức Trọng, tỉnh Lâm Đồng. Ảnh: Lê Sơn

Tuy nhiên, trên thị trường thế giới, giá cà phê Robusta và Arabica lại có xu hướng giảm nhẹ. Nguyên nhân chủ yếu đến từ áp lực của hoạt động đầu cơ và sự mạnh lên của đồng USD, khiến các nhà đầu tư thận trọng hơn trong giao dịch.

Giới chuyên gia dự báo giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 31, 2024 có thể sẽ quay đầu giảm nhẹ, dự kiến dao động trong khoảng 120.000 – 120.900 đồng/kg. Tình hình này phản ánh sự ảnh hưởng từ hoạt động đầu cơ và áp lực từ thị trường quốc tế. Người trồng cà phê và các nhà đầu tư cần theo dõi sát sao diễn biến giá cả để có những điều chỉnh phù hợp trong chiến lược kinh doanh của mình.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,599.81

• Thin holiday conditions exacerbate market movements ahead of New Year’s Eve.
• Uncertainty about what the new year will bring sends investors into safety.
• XAU/USD accelerated its slide after Wall Street’s opening and aims to test the monthly low.

Spot Gold pierced the $2,600 mark in the American session, further retreating from Friday’s peak at $2,638. Sentiment leads the way, with the US Dollar (USD) gaining momentum after Wall Street’s opening amid the poor performance of local indexes. Thin trading conditions exacerbate stocks’ decline, spurring USD near-term demand. Nevertheless, and despite near-term losses, the three major indexes are heading to close another year with solid gains.

Additionally, market players drop high-yielding assets amid uncertainty over what 2025 may bring. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) has recently announced it will slow the pace of interest rate cuts amid stubbornly high inflation. Also, former president Donald Trump will return to the White House on January 20 and his anticipated protectionism measures may mean even higher inflationary pressures ahead.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the pair has met intraday sellers around a bullish 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 20 SMA turns south above the longer one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, gain bearish traction within negative levels, favoring a downward extension towards the December low at $2,582.93.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the bearish case is also solid. XAU/USD is currently developing below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining downward strength below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators head lower almost vertically, currently approaching oversold readings.

Support levels:  2,595.80 2,582.90  2,570.10

Resistance levels: 2,604.20 2,617.55 2,632.00

A winter cold blast is causing natural gas to spike.

That’s what Phil Flynn, a senior market analyst at the PRICE Futures Group, told Rigzone in an exclusive interview on Monday when asked why the U.S. natural gas price is rising today.

Flynn, who highlighted to Rigzone that the commodity “open[ed]… up over 10 percent higher” said “predictions of an arctic cold blast, and the possibility that this January may be the coldest in 30 years, is suddenly changing the fundable”.

“Not only will we see record demand but also the possibility of natural gas production freeze offs,” Flynn warned.

The PRICE Futures Group senior market analyst told Rigzone that the natural gas market “hasn’t really had to face a real winter”.

“Now we will test the bearish narratives in the market,” Flynn added.

When he was asked why the U.S. natural gas price is rising today in a separate exclusive interview on Monday, Gabriel Odiase, an analyst at the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHBD), said, “mainly uncertainties around the renewal, or not, of the major contract for transporting Russian gas through Ukraine, which is set to expire at the end of December”.

“This contract, between Russia’s Gazprom and Ukraine’s Naftogaz, has been key for delivering Russian gas to Europe,” Odiase told Rigzone.

“The contract expiry could shape Europe’s gas supply and market dynamics. This may potentially increase demand for LNG, as cover, at the start of the new year,” Odiase went on to state.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on December 27 and includes data for the week ending December 20, stated that “working gas in storage was 3,529 billion cubic feet as of Friday, December 20, 2024, according to EIA estimates”.

“This represents a net decrease of 93 billion cubic feet from the previous week. Stocks were 14 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 166 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 3,363 billion cubic feet,” the report added.

“At 3,529 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” the EIA report went on to state.

The EIA’s next weekly natural gas storage report is scheduled to be released on January 3. It will show data for the week ending December 27.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released in December, the EIA raised its Henry Hub natural gas spot price forecast for 2024 and 2025.

According to its December STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot price averaging $2.19 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $2.95 per MMBtu in 2025. The EIA’s previous November STEO projected that the Henry Hub spot price would average $2.17 per MMBtu in 2024 and $2.90 per MMBtu in 2025.

In another exclusive interview, ex-Independent Petroleum Association of America (IPAA) Chief Economist Frederick J. Lawrence told Rigzone on December 19 that natural gas prices had “rallied over the past two days based on forecasts of colder weather anticipated in January”.

“In addition to more frosty weather arriving after the Christmas holiday, natural gas storage also proved more robust as of December 13. The latest storage number showed a net decrease in storage of 125 billion cubic feet compared to the previous week,” he added.

“Stocks at 3,622 billion cubic feet remain 20 billion cubic feet higher than last year and 123 billion cubic feet higher than the five year average,” he went on to state.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com