XAU/USD Current price: $2,786.10

• United States data confirmed the country’s economic resilience.
• Focus on the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve’s decision next week.
• XAU/USD retains its bullish strength despite overbought, $2,800 at sight.

Gold traded as high as $2,789.72 a troy ounce on Wednesday, a fresh record high. XAU/USD retreated after Wall Street’s opening but met buyers at around $2,770 and approaches the aforementioned high en route to unexplored territory.  

The US Dollar (USD) reacted positively to the first batch of United States (US) data, surging after an upbeat ADP report on private job creation showed the sector added 233K new positions in October, much better than the 115K expected. The Greenback retained its strength following the release of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary estimate, showing that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8%, below the 3% expected and the previous, yet still far from concerning.

Finally, the US reported an uptick in inflation in the three months to June, as the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose by 2.2%, easing from the previous 2.8% but above the 2.1% expected.

Employment, growth, and inflation all fell within a tolerable range, resulting in little relevance to the upcoming Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision next week. In the end, market players welcomed the figures. As a result, the USD came under selling pressure while Wall Street trimmed pre-opening losses, and the three major indexes turned positive.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election keeps boosting demand for Gold and buyers take their chances on intraday deeps. Demand for Gold will likely continue outpacing that of the USD in risk-averse scenarios, while also gaining when the latter weakens.

The US will release the September PCE Price Index on Thursday, although it may have a limited impact given the quarterly figures just released within the GDP report. On Friday, the country will publish the October Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

Technically, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is bullish despite being overbought. The pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,691.70. The 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated higher far below the shorter one, reflecting persistent buying interest. Finally, technical indicators entered overbought readings, partially losing their upward strength but far from showing upward exhaustion. Higher highs are still on the docket before a relevant downward correction occurs.

The 4-hour chart indicates a persistently strong upward momentum. Technical indicators resumed their advances in the overbought territory after a modest corrective decline, confirming buyers continue to take their chances on dips. At the same time, the 20 SMA accelerated north far below the current level while above the 100 and 200 SMAs. A bullish continuation beyond $2,800 is on the docket before the US election.

Support levels: 2,770.90 2,757.30 2,742.50

Resistance levels: 2,790.00 2,810.00 2,825.00

Potential for a Breakout

A decisive advance above the top line that is followed by a continuation higher indicates an initial breakout of the triangle consolidation pattern. However, subsequent price behavior is key to guard against a false breakout. Since the most recent swing high was at 3.02, it should also be considered since it is relatively nearby.

A rally above that high would further confirm strength as a prior swing will have been reclaimed. However, a daily close above it is needed to complete that breakout. That swing is part of the price structure of lower swing highs that occurred since the 3.64 peak in 2003. The top boundary line defining resistance of the symmetrical triangle formation touches those highs.

Pullback Possible

Since resistance has been seen so far, a bearish retracement may be next on the agenda. Weakness is indicated on drop below today’s low of 2.77. Also, a decline below yesterday’s low of 2.79 can be seen as a gauge. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 2.65 and it may be the first price zone to see signs of support. Lower down is possibly a more significant support zone from 2.58 to 2.56 as it marks the confluence of several levels. A prior high resistance and now possibly support was at 2.58 and it is joined by the 50% retracement at 2.57 and the 20-Day MA at 2.56.

Lower Support Levels

Price behavior around the 20-Day line will likely provide the most value as it helps identify support of the near-term trend. It has been trending down since a little before the last swing low. However, the 50-Day MA has been trending up since mid-September and is now at 2.44. If natural gas breaks below the 20-Day MA and continues lower the 50-Day line becomes a potential target. Moreover, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement can be watched as well at 2.48.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver struggles to capitalize on the precious day’s positive move and drifts lower on Wednesday.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying.
• A sustained break below the $33.10-$33.00 area is needed to negate the near-term positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) meets with a fresh supply on Wednesday and drops back closer to the $34.00 mark during the first half of the European session, reversing a part of the previous day’s move up. 

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD is holding comfortably above important daily moving averages – 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart maintain their positive bias and are still away from being in the overbought territory, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the upside. 

Hence, any subsequent slide is more likely to find decent support near the $33.70 horizontal zone. This is followed by last week’s swing low, around the $33.10 area, which if broken decisively might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the slide towards the $32.20-$32.15 intermediate support en route to the $32.00 round figure.

Some follow-through selling below the $31.70-$31.65 region could drag the XAG/USD towards the $31.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $30.50 area and the monthly swing low, close to the $30.00 psychological mark tested on October 8.

On the flip side, bulls might now wait for a sustained strength beyond the $34.50-$34.55 area before making a fresh attempt to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark. The subsequent move up has the potential to lift the XAG/USD further towards the October 2012 swing high, around the $35.35-$35.40 region.

Silver daily chart

Created on October 30, 2024

• Gold prices have risen sharply ahead of the US presidential election on November 5 and a series of key economic data releases due later this week.
• Furthermore, price approached record highs earlier in the session as traders shrugged off easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• At the time of writing, gold prices rose to the resistance level of $2,782 per ounce, the highest in the history of the gold market and the closest point to the upcoming historical resistance level of $2,800 per ounce.

At the beginning of this week’s trading, according to gold trading companies, gold prices came under pressure as the Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend had a limited impact as it did not target any oil or nuclear sites. However, safe-haven demand for the yellow metal remains intact ahead of next week’s US elections. Uncertainty over the outcome, which will determine US policy for the next four years, has kept traders on their toes.

US Election Tension

The uncertainty surrounding next week’s elections could shape gold prices. Most opinion polls show former US President Donald Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. However, analysts believe the race will be close. Overall, the continued safe-haven demand stemming from tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions continues to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. Should Trump win, concerns over a trade war with China would increase safe-haven demand for gold. Moreover, Trump could also ease sanctions on Russia, while doubling them in Iran.

Economic Data in Focus

Traders are also focusing on the release of third-quarter GDP data from the US on Thursday. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred measure of the US Federal Reserve, will be released on Friday, along with non-farm payrolls data. All of these data are due ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. If the data shows further economic slowdown, it could herald further interest rate cuts in the US.

Meanwhile, lower interest rates increase demand for non-yielding metals such as gold and silver.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in a 95% chance of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting. At its September meeting, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, surprising the market.

Gold Price Analysis and forecast Today:

According to gold price forecast experts, gold prices are facing resistance at $2,770-2,775 per ounce. If prices break above $2,775 per ounce, the yellow metal could rally to $2,800 per ounce after that. Overall, COMEX gold prices have gained more than 30% since the beginning of this year. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is about to break into the overbought zone and warrants some caution from bulls. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some near-term neutrality or a modest pullback before placing any further discretionary move in the near term.

Ready to trade today’s Gold forecast? Here are the best Gold brokers to choose from.

• Silver price may regain its ground due to market caution ahead of the US presidential election.
• Silver prices faced challenges as the Israeli PM Netanyahu may discuss a diplomatic resolution to the war in Lebanon.
• The dollar-denominated Silver received support from a lower US dollar and Treasury yields ahead of US data releases this week.

Silver prices (XAG/USD) dips slightly to around $34.30 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. However, Silver gained over 2% on Tuesday amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election.

A three-day poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, which concluded on Sunday and was released on Tuesday, indicated that the race is essentially tied as the November 5 election approaches. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has seen her lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump narrow to just one percentage point, with 44% support compared to Trump’s 43%.

Silver prices might have encountered difficulties due to safe-haven flows, following an Axios reporter post on X that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to meet with various ministers and military and intelligence leaders to discuss a diplomatic resolution to the war in Lebanon, according to Reuters.

The dollar-denominated commodity, like Silver, typically benefits from a weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields as traders exercise caution ahead of significant US economic data releases this week. A declining US dollar makes Silver more affordable for foreign buyers, which can boost demand for the precious metal.

The preliminary US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures and October’s ADP Employment Change are set to be released on Wednesday. Additionally, US PCE inflation and Nonfarm Payrolls will be closely monitored on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Investors are also anticipating the upcoming meeting of China’s parliament, scheduled for November 4-8, as reported by state media on Friday. There is considerable interest in the gathering of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which is expected to provide updates on potential fiscal stimulus measures.

Experts predict that on October 30, 10, coffee prices in the domestic market will rebound due to weather and international market influences.

Coffee price world increased due to concerns that the storm’s circulation could cause heavy rain in Vietnam’s key coffee growing region of the Central Highlands, slowing the progress of the new crop harvest. Storm Tra Mi (storm No. 6) made landfall, causing heavy rain from Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh and the northern Central Highlands in Vietnam, causing the supply of the harvested crop to slow to the market, as the storm dissipated quickly but brought rains with the tropical depression afterwards. Meanwhile, another storm is forming from the East of the Philippines, named Kong-rey. The storm is moving southward as it gets closer to the end of the year.

Coffee prices also rose on news after Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee growing region, Minas Gerais, received just 25,1 mm of rain last week, or 74% of the historical average.

Assessing the coffee market in the coming time, experts said that there were too many difficulties right from the beginning of the new crop year, perhaps these difficulties will last until early 2025, when international traders sell all the goods they had hastily purchased before.

At that time, coffee prices will be more stable, but the opportunity to increase prices to reach the previous peak is considered gone. In the current coffee market conditions, we need to do business based on quality, not quantity.

Recorded in the trading session on October 29, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased slightly by 2024-800 VND/kg, ranging from 900-108.500 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109.100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 109.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.000 VND, down 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 108.900 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.000 VND/kg, down 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 109.100 VND/kg, down 900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 108.500 VND/kg, down 900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 29) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 109.000 VND/kg, down 800 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 108.900 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on September 29, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 29, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.367 USD; Delivery term in January 43 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.296 is 41 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 29, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 on October 29, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 246.05 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in December 12 is 2024 cents/lb; down 251.00 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. March 1.35 delivery is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; Delivery period in May 250.05 is 1.30 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and delivery period in July 2025 is 248.70 cents/lb, down 1.20 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 29, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 29, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 303.00 is 0.49 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 303.00 USD/ton, up 0.61% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 306.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first half of October 10 reached 2024 thousand tons, worth 21,5 million USD, up 125,8% in volume and 0,4% in value compared to the first half of September; and compared to the first half of October 7,5, it increased by 9% in volume and 10% in value. Accumulated from the beginning of the year to October 2023, 20,5, Vietnam exported approximately 98,0 million tons of coffee, worth 15 billion USD, down 10% in volume, but up 2024% in value compared to the same period in 1,13.

Currently, businesses in the Vietnamese coffee supply chain are facing many challenges. Rising prices stimulate farmers to pursue short-term benefits. Increasing supply shortages due to depleting domestic inventories.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

20-Day MA at 2.57 Marks Support

Both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs were reclaimed and now represent potential support. The 20-Day line is at 2.57 and the 50-Day line at 2.43. Support could be seen around either moving average if a bearish pullback occurs. Further, a minor swing high is near the 20-Day level at 2.58. Finding support around the 20-Day MA would be a stronger indication than if natural gas falls to test support around the 50-Day MA.

Bull Breakout Above 2.89

Although a bearish pullback may occur prior to an upside breakout, the breakout could happen sooner. Strength is next indicated by a rally above today’s high of 2.89, which would provide the first indication of a potential upside breakout of the triangle. However, since the recent high of 3.02 is near, it needs to be exceeded for a higher confidence level that a breakout may be sustained. Today is essentially the fifth attempt to challenge resistance around the top trendline. Therefore, it has a chance of being successful if it triggers. Until then natural gas remains inside a consolidation range.

Indications of Underlying Strength

The recent higher swing low shows strength and is a clue that supports an eventual bullish resolution of the consolidation phase. Moreover, the 200-Day MA was recently successfully tested as support and each time price rallied. Natural gas has been flirting with the 200-Day line since a bull breakout in September 2023.

At some point natural gas will move into a trending environment and the recent test of support at the 200-Day line may turn out to be the beginning of that process. Note that the recent test of support at the 200-Day line followed a rally higher. Each of the previous three approaches to the 200-Day line led to a breakdown below the line. A change of character may now be beginning.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,770.49

• Upbeat US Consumer Confidence and tepid job creation boosted Gold’s demand.
• Focus on US data ahead of the Presidential election and the Federal Reserve decision.
• XAU/USD bullish case remains firm in place, buyers looking now to test $2,800.

Spot Gold surpassed the $2,770 mark on Wednesday as market participants keep seeking safety ahead of multiple first-tier data and looming US elections. The bright metal gained upward traction ahead of Wall Street’s opening, accelerating its advance following the release of United States (US) data.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased in October to 108.7, up from 99.2 in September. The Present Situation Index rose to 138.0, while the Expectations Index soared to 89.1, well above the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

The encouraging figures were partially overshadowed by an employment-related report. The number of job openings on the last business day of September stood at 7.44 million, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The cooling labor market is more good news than bad news, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) welcomes easing wage pressures.

Caution reigns as investors focus on the preliminary estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. In the middle, the US will also release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge. The combo could set the tone for the upcoming Fed monetary policy decision, scheduled to meet next week and announce its decision on Thursday, November 7. The decision will come 24 hours after the country heads into the polls to choose the next president.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

XAU/USD retreated from its fresh high but retains most of its intraday gains and trades at around $2,766. Technical readings in the daily chart favor another leg north. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerated higher, well below the current level, currently at around $2,685.00. The longer moving averages, in the meantime, also gained bullish traction, standing over $300 below the current level.

In the 4-hour chart, technical readings support a bullish continuation. Indicators head firmly north within positive territory, nearing overbought readings but still with room to run. Also, the 20  SMA turned higher below the current level, providing dynamic support at around $2,740.60. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, maintain their firmly bullish slopes far below the shorter one.

Support levels: 2,751.90 2,739.70 2,721.20

Resistance levels: 2,775.00 2,790.00 2,810.00

• Silver price surges to near $34.50 as the US JOLTS Job Openings data for September has come in weaker-than-expected.
• The US Dollar surrenders its intraday gains as soft job vacancy data pointed to a slowdown in labor demand.
• Investors will focus on a slew of US economic data.

Silver price (XAG/USD) discovers strong buying interest in Tuesday’s North American session as the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has reported weak set of JOLTS Job Openings data for September. The white metal extends its rally to near $34.50 as soft job opening numbers have pointed to a slowdown in the job market.

Weak US job openings data has weighed on the US Dollar (USD), which has given up its entire intraday gains. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls back to nearly 104.30 after refreshing an almost three-month high of around 104.60. 10-year US Treasury yields surrender some of its intraday gains but hold the key support of 4.20%.

This week, investors will pay close attention to the US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for September, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for October published this week.

The economic data will indicate how the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy will shape the remainder of the year.

Meanwhile, the outlook of the Silver price will remain firm amid uncertainty over US presidential elections on November 5. Traders expect former US President Donald Trump to return to power, while national polls have shown fierce competition with current Vice President Kamala Harris. The risk profile has remained favorable for safe-haven assets as Trump is expected to implement protectionist policies, which will result in an inflationary environment and will have an adverse impact on the currencies of the US’s major trading partners.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price aims to recapture a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00 after a breakout of three-day consolidation. The horizontal support plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50, on a daily timeframe, will act as a key cushion for Silver price bulls from where it delivered a five-month consolidation breakout. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.70 signals more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in the 60.00-80.00, pointing to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price drifts higher to around $33.90 in Tuesday’s early European session, adding 0.71% on the day. 
• Growing fears of rising Middle East tensions, and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election could support white metal. 
• Bets for smaller Fed rate cuts might cap the Silver’s upside. 

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains traction to near $33.90 during the early European session on Tuesday. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainties surrounding the global economy and the US presidential election lift the white metal. 

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has given a measured response to Israeli strikes on the country, stating that the attack should not be “exaggerated or downplayed” but refraining from pledging quick retaliation. According to the BBC, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said that the country will “respond appropriately” to an attack that killed at least four troops. 

Market players will monitor the development surrounding geopolitical risks in the region. Any signs of further escalation could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the silver price. 

Major central banks worldwide have largely begun easing monetary policy and cutting interest rates. Furthermore, the additional US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts expected in the November meeting could support the non-yielding precious metal. 

However, bets for a less aggressive policy easing by the Fed could cap the upside for the Silver. Financial markets anticipate the US central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both the policy meetings in November and December.

Later this week, the advanced US Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) will be the highlights. These reports could offer some hints about the size and pace of US Fed rate reductions.