• Brent Crude oil prices opened lower due to renewed ceasefire hopes after a limited Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran.
• The attack didn’t target energy infrastructure, leading to a drop in geopolitical risk premium.
• CitiGroup lowered its Brent price target for the next three months to $70 a barrel.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook – ‘Magnificent 7’ Earnings, BoJ Meeting and US Jobs Data

Oil prices opened $4 lower or 5.84% on renewed ceasefire hopes after Israel launched a limited retaliatory attack on Iran over the weekend. The attack by Israel did not target any energy infrastructure but rather focused on military targets. The scope of the attacks have led to increased hopes of a potential ceasefire.

The attacks have seen the premium priced in from Geopolitical risk largely fall away. My question would be whether such a move is premature? There are some analysts who share my view that a ceasefire in the Middle East is unfortunately still far away.  

OPEC + continues to lower its forecasts as does the IEA with many hoping recent Chinese stimulus may help demand concerns. However, more importantly moving forward will be whether OPEC + proceeds with production increases as planned for the end of the year. Last week this seemed plausible as Oil prices appeared to be heading back toward $80 a barrel. The narrative has shifted after the weekend, at least from my point of view. If oil prices continue to languish in the low 70’s a barrel, i think OPEC + is unlikely to raise output in December.  

After the developments over the last week, CitiGroup has lowered their Brent price target for the next three months to around $70 a barrel, from a previous $74. This is a significant downgrade in my opinion and it will be interesting to monitor whether other analysts or investment banks/houses do the same.

The week ahead usually brings the most recent inventory data which will once again be monitored. There is a lot of risk this week that relates to markets as a whole with US Earnings and Jobs data ahead. 

Sentiment changes from these events could also have a knock on effect on Oil prices. 

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.  

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, oil has had a $4 gap to the downside over the weekend which does mess with the price action outlook. Following Friday, the technicals were hinting at a bullish continuation move for oil prices which could still materialize but seems less certain now. 

Brent opened around the 72.35 mark having finished last week trading at 76.050 a barrel. As things stand, price is caught in a massive demand which would hint at a bounce. However, with the geopolitical premium out for now and Skepticism around global growth, could Oil prices decline further?

Immediate support rests at 71.50 before the psychological 70.00 mark comes into focus. Below this we have the YTD low just shy of the 69.00 to keep an eye on.

As much i would love a recovery and for Oil prices to close the gap, i am not sure if we have the right conditions for that at the minute. A move higher from here will have to negotiate the resistance area at 73.40 before 75.00 deserves attention. A break above 76.35 could lead to a speedy rally toward the 79.00 handle.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, October 28, 2024

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

Resistance

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• Gold price extends the previous rebound early Tuesday, retakes $2,750.   
• The US Dollar tracks US Treasury bond yields lower ahead of key US jobs data.
• Technically, Gold price remains within a range with upside risks intact.  

Gold price is building on the previous day’s rebound, eyeing a sustained move above $2,750 early Tuesday. Despite the renewed uptick, Gold price remain within a familiar range as the US Dollar (USD) rally takes a breather ahead of top-tier US economic data releases due later on Tuesday.

Can Gold price sustain the upswing ahead of US data?

USD buyers resort to profit-taking after the recent upsurge to three-month highs while repositioning in the run-up to the high-impact US statistics due this week. Later this Tuesday, the JOLTS Job Openings survey and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence data will be eyed to gauge the US economic resilience, which could provide fresh hints on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate cut outlook.

The Greenback traders also remain wary ahead of Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index, followed by the all-important US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) showdown. Additionally, traders’ nervousness before the publication of the third-quarter earnings reports of the US’ biggest companies by market capitalization, including Google’s parent company Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Amazon Inc., etc., also keeps the USD on the back foot.

Meanwhile, increased enthusiasm that former US President Donald Trump could win the November 5 election, combined with hopes of more Chinese stimulus, underpin global equities, diminishing the attractiveness of the go-to safe-haven, the US Dollar.

Against a broad US Dollar pullback, Gold price is trying its luck to make another headway toward the record high of $2,759, despite reports that physical Gold demand from China has taken a hit.

According to a state-backed gold association, cited by Reuters on Monday, “China’s gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2024 slid 11.18% from the same period a year ago to 741.732 metric tons as high prices dented buying interest for jewelry products.”

Further, the festive season in India – the world’s no.2 yellow metal market – also lends support to the bright metal.

However, it remains to be seen whether Gold price can sustain its uptick, as the US Dollar could jump back on the bids on the revival of the USD/JPY bullish momentum. At the press time, the Japanese Yen has recovered some ground on a dip in Japan’s Unemployment Rate, suggesting tight labor market conditions that are conducive for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to mull further rate hikes. This has triggered a decent USD/JPY pullback below 153.00.

Gold price will also take cues from the upcoming US data and sentiment on Wall Street, as the US earnings calendar heats up.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price has entered a phase of consolidation, with the upside capped by the record high of $2,759 set on October 23 while buyers continue to find demand at $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to all-time high of $2,759.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is inching higher, approaching the overbought region, currently near 69.  The leading indicator indicates more room for Gold price upside in the near term.

Therefore, Gold buyers need a sustained move above the $2,750 psychological barrier to take on the lifetime high at $2,759. Further up, the $2,570 level will challenge the bearish commitments. 

On the downside, the 23.6% Fibo support at $2,723 remains a tough nut to crack for Gold sellers.  

Acceptance below that level on a daily candlestick closing basis could revive the correction, targeting the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700.

Further south, the 50% Fibo support at $2,681 will be challenged, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns. 

Pullback From 20-Day MA

Today’s sharp bearish reversal triggered a decline below the inside day from Friday. Both last Friday and Thursday’s highs found resistance around the purple 20-Day MA, now at 2.57. That was the top of the counter-trend rally seen so far. There was concern discussed recently about potential resistance around the 20-Day line, and the bearish answer is now clear. However, how that plays out with the larger developing patterns remains to be seen.

Trades Within Weekly Range

The two key price levels to be aware of are last week’s high of 2.58 and low of 2.21. Until then, natural gas is consolidating within last week’s price range when considered on a weekly basis. Also, the market has clearly recognized the price zone represented by the 20-Day MA and therefore it may do so again. Although trendlines may not be too reliable on their own as a signal they can provide indications of improving or decreasing demand. So, the internal uptrend line can be watched in that regard. If there is a daily close below the line, the chance of a deeper pullback from there increases.

20-Day Line to Provide a Clue

A clear sign of strength will be given if the 20-Day line is recaptured. However, a daily close confirming the breakout will be needed to indicate that price is likely to continue to strengthen. Further, a rally above last week’s high is needed to provide a weekly bullish signal. Of course, that would also signal a breakout above the most recent swing high as seen on the daily chart and thereby trigger a continuation of the bull trend as it would signal a higher swing high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price hovers near $34.00 resistance with positive momentum, supported by RSI in bullish territory.
• A breakout above $34.00 could target the YTD high at $34.86, followed by the October 2012 peak at $35.40.
• Key support levels are the October 25 low at $33.09 and October 17 pivot low at $31.32, with further downside to the 50-day SMA at $30.82.

Silver price clings to gains above $33.50 yet struggles to clear the $34.00 mark amid falling through high US 10-year T-note yields at 4.260%. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $33.79, up by 0.30%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal remains bullish, though it has failed to clear the October 25 daily peak at $34.01, opening the door to complete a ‘bullish harami’ candle pattern.

Momentum remains positive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) in bullish territory and aiming upwards. Therefore, the XAG/USD could test $34.00 in the short term.

If XAG/USD climbs past $34.00, the next resistance would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at $34.86. A breach of the latter will expose the October 2012 peak at $35.40.

Conversely, if Silver price extended its losses below the October 25 swing low of $33.09, this could expose the October 17 pivot low at $31.32. On further weakness, XAG/USD’s next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.82.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Experts predict that coffee prices on October 29, 10 in the domestic market will continue to decline tomorrow and tend to decrease in the following days.

The 2024-2025 coffee crop has begun since early October, and the price of Robusta coffee on the London exchange has dropped about $10/ton compared to its peak at the end of September.

At the market world, the Brazilian Real continued to decline sharply, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to increase during trading hours. Favorable weather in Brazil and abundant supply from the new harvest in Vietnam continued to be factors that caused coffee prices to decline last week.

Recorded in the trading session on October 28, 10, domestic coffee prices today are stable at around 2024-109.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 110.000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 110.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.800 VND, unchanged from yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.700 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.800 VND/kg, stable compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 110.000 VND/kg, stable compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 109.400 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 28) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.800 VND/kg, also slowing down following the general trend, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 28, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 28, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.405 USD; Delivery term in January 82 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.313 is 57 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 28, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 28, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 249.40 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 254.85 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 6.45 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; The March 253.70 delivery period is 6.20 cents/lb, an increase of 5 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 252.15 cents/lb, an increase of 6 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 28, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 28, 10 increased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, up 2024%; the delivery period for March 305.40 is 1.63 USD/ton, up 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 306.00 USD/ton, up 1.63% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 301.40%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

According to the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), world coffee prices have decreased recently due to the Brazilian Real falling against the USD, encouraging Brazilian producers to increase sales.

In addition, favorable weather and steady rainfall in Brazil’s key robusta growing region of Espirito Santos have eased supply concerns that have put downward pressure on prices.

As Vietnam enters a new harvest season, increased supplies of robusta coffee also impact coffee prices.

In addition, the European Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is being suspended to allow third countries, Member States, operators and traders to fully prepare for due diligence obligations, which is also expected to impact coffee prices. The regulation is scheduled to be voted on by the European Parliament on 13 and 14 November 11.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,740.65

• Market players are cautiously optimistic ahead of multiple first-tier data.
• Turmoil in Japan and the Middle East backed the US Dollar during Asian trading hours.
• XAU/USD consolidates near record highs, bulls paused but did not give up.

Spot Gold is comfortable trading in the $2,740 price zone, marginally higher for the day. The bright metal gapped lower at the weekly opening amid renewed US Dollar demand, although the latter changed course amid an improved market mood. Such a better sentiment limits the upside for XAU/USD in the American session.

The focus during Asian trading hours was on Japan after a snap election that resulted in the worst result in fifteen years for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pledged to stay in office despite losing support amid a political scandal, including undocumented political funds and kickbacks. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edged sharply lower, supporting the USD.

Falling oil prices also helped the Greenback. Crude Oil Prices fell after Iran reported that the latest Israel attacks did not affect the country’s oil industry. As a result, stock markets trade in positive territory. Gains are modest ahead of multiple first-tier figures scheduled throughout the week. The United States (US) will publish the flash estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and several employment-related figures ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday. Additionally, the US, Australia, Germany and the Eurozone will publish fresh inflation-related figures, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will announce its decision on monetary policy.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

Gold holds on to modest intraday gains but trades below Friday’s close and within familiar levels. XAU/USD daily chart shows moving averages keep heading north far below the current level, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating higher, in line with buyers’ dominance. Technical indicators, on the contrary, offer neutral-to-bearish slopes holding within positive levels.

Even further, XAU/USD met intraday buyers just ahead of $2,721.20, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the  $2,601.87/$2,756.36 rally. More relevant support comes at $2,698.66, which is the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.

The near-term technical picture is neutral. The XAU/USD 4-hour chart shows the pair barely holding above a mildly bearish 20 SMA. The 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north far below the current level, yet technical indicators have turned marginally lower, just above their midlines. A break through the intraday high at around $2,745.90 should favor a retest of the record high en route to the $2,800 mark.

Support levels: 2,721.20 2,708.50, 2,698.60

Resistance levels: 2,745.90 2,758.40 2,775.00

• Silver price faces marginal pressure below $34.00 with an array of US data in focus.
• Investors will keenly focus on the US labor market and the economic growth data for fresh interest rate guidance.
• Iran-Israel tensions would keep the downside in the Silver price limited.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades cautiously below the key resistance of $34.00 in Monday’s North American session. The white metal faces slight pressure as traders brace for an array of United States (US) economic data to be published this week.

Investors will pay close attention to labor market-related data, Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), and the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data to get fresh cues about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action in the remainder of the year.

Currently, financial market participants expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in both the policy meetings in November and December. With decent confidence among Fed officials that the disinflationary trend is intact, the labor market and the GDP data will be keenly watched to understand the quantum of economic risks.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against ix major currencies, retreats after failing to extend its upside above an almost three-week high of 104.60. 10-year US Treasury yields trade sideways near 4.23%.

On the geopolitical front, war between Israel and Iran will continue to keep the Silver price well-supported. Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s defense-manufacturing capacity over the weekend. After the attack, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We promised we would respond to the Iranian attack, and on Saturday we struck. The attack in Iran was precise and powerful, achieving all of its objectives”, Home Newsday reported.

The scenario of deepening geopolitical tensions bodes well for precious metals, such as Silver price, as investors consider them a safe-haven bet.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades inside Friday’s trading range in North American trading hours on Monday. The white metal strives to revisit a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00. The asset strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as support for now. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.55 signals more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays in the 60.00-80.00, pointing to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

• Silver price attracts sellers as recent US data reinforces the odds of nominal rate cuts by the Fed.
• The US Dollar receives support as Treasury yields continue to gain ground.
• The downside of the Silver could be restrained due to political uncertainty around the US presidential election.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) and Treasury yields continue to rally, driven by recent robust US economic data released on Friday. Silver price hovers around $33.50 per troy ounce during Monday’s European trading hours.

The dollar-denominated Silver faces challenges due to solid US Dollar (USD) amid higher Treasury yields. A higher US Dollar makes Silver expensive for buyers with foreign currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, trading near 104.30. Meanwhile, yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds are at 4.12% and 4.28%, respectively.

Friday’s data release showed the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 70.5 in October from 68.9, beating forecasts of 69.0. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.8% month-over-month in September, a smaller drop than the expected 1.0%.

Political uncertainty around the US presidential election may lend some support to Silver. In the past three weeks, allies of former President Donald Trump faced at least 10 legal setbacks in key battleground states, which could influence the November 5 race between Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.

The safe-haven appeal of Silver may be limited, however, by easing geopolitical tensions. Following Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian missile and air defense sites early Saturday, which were less aggressive than expected, Iran has downplayed the impact. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remarked that the incident “should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.”

• Silver kicks off the new week on a weaker note, albeit manages to hold above the $33.00 mark.
• The technical setup warrants caution for bears and before positioning for any further losses.
• A sustained break below the $33.00 mark should pave the way for some meaningful correction.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday and currently trades around the $33.30 area, down nearly 1.25% for the day. The white metal, however, manages to hold above a one-week low, around the $33.10-$33.00 area, set on Friday, warranting some caution for bearish traders.

Moreover, technical indicators on the daily chart – though have been losing positive traction – are holding in positive territory. This further makes it prudent to wait for a convincing break below the $33.00 mark before positioning for an extension of last week’s pullback from the highest level since October 2012. Some follow-through selling below the $32.75-$32.65 resistance-turned-support will reaffirm the negative bias and make the XAG/USD vulnerable. 

The subsequent downfall might expose the $32.20-$32.15 intermediate support before the white metal drops to the $32.00 round figure and the $31.70-$31.65 region. The downward trajectory could extend further and drag the XAG/USD towards the $31.00 mark en route to the $30.50 area and the monthly swing low, close to the $30.00 psychological mark tested on October 8.

On the flip side, the $33.65 horizontal zone now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAG/USD is likely to reclaim the $34.00 mark and climb further towards the $34.30-$34.35 supply zone. The momentum could extend further and allow bulls to make a fresh attempt to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark before aiming to challenge the October 2012 swing high, around the $35.35-$35.40 region.

Silver 4-hour chart

• Gold price kicks off a big week on a negative note below $2,750 on Monday.
• The US Dollar finds support from higher Treasury yields, Middle East tensions.
• Technically, Gold price remains ‘buy-the-dips’ trade whilst above 38.2% Fibo level.

Gold price has lost its two-day recovery momentum, trading below $2,750 amid a quiet start to a big week on Monday. Gold buyers did find acceptance above the $2,740 static resistance on Friday but the further upside appears elusive on resurgent US Dollar (USD) demand.

Gold price focuses on Mideast tensions, key US data this week

The USD resumes the recent uptrend, drawing safe-haven demand amid further escalation in the Middle East tensions and uncertainty around the November 5 US presidential election.

Israel attacked Iran with a series of airstrikes early Saturday, saying it was targeting military sites in retaliation for the barrage of ballistic missiles the latter fired upon Israel on October 1, 2024.

Iran’s official newspaper reported, citing the Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei as saying that “the evil committed by the Zionist regime (Israel) two nights ago should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated.”

Additionally, markets are wagering a less aggressive easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on US economic resilience, which keeps the sentiment around the Greenback underpinned at the expense of the Gold price.

However, the downside of the Gold price remains capped due to renewed expectations of more stimulus measures from China. China’s Vice Minister of Finance Liao Min said earlier that the country will step up countercyclical adjustments of its macro policies to bolster economic recovery in the fourth quarter.

China is the world’s biggest Gold consumer and hence, hopes of an increase in physical demand for Gold on stimulus optimism favors buyers. Further, the festive season in India – the world’s no.2 yellow metal market – could also lend support to the bright metal.

Looking ahead, the US economic calendar is devoid of any high-impact data release, and hence, Gold price will remain at the mercy of risk trends. Additionally, a sense of caution could prevail amid Mideast concerns and heading into an action-packed US data docket, with all eyes on inflation and employment details.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has tested $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to all-time high of $2,759, on its renewed downside.

Acceptance below that level on a sustained basis could extend the decline toward the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700.

Further south, the 50% Fibo support at $2,681 will be challenged, where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) aligns. 

Alternatively, Gold buyers could re-attempt the $2,750 psychological barrier if the 23.6% Fibo support at $2,723 holds.

The next relevant bullish target will be seen at the record high of $2,759.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing lower but holds comfortable above the 50 level, currently trading near 64, suggesting that Gold price remains a good dip-buying trade at lower levels.