• Gold price loses momentum to around $2,735 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Geopolitical risks and uncertainty around US presidential elections boost the yellow metal. 
• Bets for a smaller Fed rate cut weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to near $2,735, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. However, the downside of the precious metal might be limited amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Saturday’s attack on Iran severely damaged Tehran’s defenses. Meanwhile, Iranian officials vowed an “appropriate response” Sunday, while saying they do not seek a wider war, per CNN. The geopolitical risks and uncertainty around the upcoming US presidential election could provide some support to traditional safe-haven assets like Gold. 

The purchases of Gold reserves among central banks and increasing demand from investors have lifted the price of yellow metal. The World Gold Council suggested that the central banks worldwide purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold during each of the last two years, and China ranks atop the list of nations seeking to bolster their gold reserves. 

On the other hand, a slower pace of rate reductions from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) amid the stronger US economic data undermines the yellow metal. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are now pricing in nearly 97.7% that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November. 

Experts predict that coffee prices on October 27, 10 in the domestic market may increase sharply due to the impact of the world coffee market.

The main reason is that the demand for coffee in the international market is increasing, pushing up prices. In addition, coffee production in some key growing areas is showing signs of decreasing due to unfavorable weather, limiting supply.

In the international market, the price increase of Robusta and Arabica coffee is expected to continue in the coming time. Futures contracts on the London and New York exchanges both recorded steady increases, indicating positive sentiment among traders and the recovery of the coffee market after a period of slight adjustment.

Coffee price forecast October 27, 10: Will the uptrend continue and how long will it last?

Recorded in the trading session on October 26, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 1.200-108.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 108.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 108.600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 108.600 VND, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 108.500 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 108.600 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 108.800 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 108.400 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (October 26) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 10 VND/kg, down 108.600 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 1.200 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 26, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 26, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.411 USD; Delivery term in January 74 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.323 is 57 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 26, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 243.60 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 248.40 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 2.95 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; The March 247.50 delivery period is 3.05 cents/lb, an increase of 5 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 246.15 cents/lb, an increase of 3.15 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 26, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.10 is 0.22 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 300.00 USD/ton, up 0.37% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 301.40%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Weather reports in Brazil continue to be positive across most coffee growing regions, with rainfall providing much-needed moisture after the dry winter months. Forecasters expect more rain next week, which should have a positive impact on flowering and preparation for Brazil’s 2025-2026 crop.

In Vietnam, Tropical Storm Trami is moving toward central Vietnam in the coming days after sweeping across the Philippines. The storm could bring heavy rains to parts of the world’s largest robusta coffee producer. It is too early to predict the impact on coffee growing areas, but heavy rains could disrupt ongoing harvesting activities, I&M Smith said.

The global coffee industry has been and continues to face many difficulties and challenges due to climate change which has greatly affected productivity, output and quality. Drought and heat waves have lasted from the beginning of the season, followed by storms at the end of the season.

In addition, geopolitical instability, war, local embargoes between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and the Gaza Strip, and many other places in the world with prolonged developments continue to impact the difficulties of the global economy in the medium and long term. Up to now, coffee prices have cooled down, but the market situation in the upcoming 2024-2025 crop year is still difficult to predict.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

EUR/USD

The euro has plunged during most of the week, but we are starting to see a little bit of support near the 1.08 level.

At this point in time, the market looks as if it is trying to bounce but there is still a lot of negativity out there, and I believe any rally at this point in time will probably continue to attract short sellers and it comes to this pair, mainly due to the fact that interest rate spiking in the United States will be a major driver of the US dollar.

I have no interest in buying this pair in the short term, unless of course something changes from a fundamental point of view.

USD/CHF

The US dollar has rallied again during the course of the week, but it does look like we are struggling a little bit with a certain amount of resistance.

If we can break above the present area, then we could go looking to the 0.8750 level, an area that previously has been important due to both support and resistance, and it’s likely that we could go looking to that area.

I also believe that area would be very difficult to get above. Pulling back from this area could open up the possibility of a move to the 0.8550 level, which is a little bit of a floor. We are in the middle of 2 major areas, so expect choppiness.

NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar has fallen pretty significantly during the course of the week, as we are testing the 0.60 level. Breaking down below the bottom of the candlestick for the previous week opens up the possibility of a move down to the 0.5850 level.

If we turn around and bounce from there, it’s very likely that the market could go looking to the 0.61 level, but quite frankly I think this is an area that should continue to be a massive resistance, and of course, if the interest rates in America continue to spike and of course we continue to see more “risk off behavior”, it makes sense that we will go negative in this pair.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ 100 has fallen quite a bit during the course of the week to reach the 20,000 level, only to turn around and bounce rather significantly.

In fact, as we are closing out the week it looks like we are trying to do everything we can to continue to go much higher, perhaps reaching the 21,000 level before it is all said and done.

Ultimately, I think that short-term pullbacks could continue to be an issue, but I also recognize that we have a situation where traders are certainly bullish, and I think that it’s almost impossible to start shorting this index anytime soon.

USD/MXN

During the trading week, we have seen the US dollar rally toward the 20 MXN level, but that area continues to be a major resistance barrier.

If we can break above that area, then the market is likely to continue to see plenty of reasons to go higher. After all, the market has a lot of things to worry about right now, and that of course makes the US dollar much more attractive than the Mexican peso which is pretty far out on the risk appetite spectrum, and that of course is the most important thing to pay attention to.

If we can break above the 20 MXN level, that could open up a move to the 20.50 MXN level. As things stand right now, I do believe that this remains a “buy on the dips” market.

Gold

Gold markets have had another bullish week, and it is probably worth noting that we have sold off quite a bit toward the top.

That being said, I also recognize that a short-term pullback would probably be the best thing that could happen for gold. Whether or not we get it remains to be seen, but the one thing that I can take away from this chart is that we are most certainly due for some type of dip so that you can take advantage of it.

If and when it happens, I would be a major buyer, with the $2600 level being a massive support level

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit during the course of the week as we continue to see a lot of back and forth.

At this point, I believe that the $65.50 level is a major floor in the market, and the $85 level above is a major ceiling. As we are closer to the bottom than the top, I suspect that range bound traders will continue to look at each one of these dips as a potential trading opportunity.

Having said that, I don’t necessarily think that the market is going to take off and jump straight in the air, but at this point in time I also recognize that a little bit of sideways and back and forth trading makes a lot of sense.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has had a strong week against the Japanese yen, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

With that being the case, the ¥152 level looks to be a major area of importance, so if we can break above there, then the market could very well find itself looking toward the ¥155 level.

On the other hand, if we get some type of pullback, then I think you’ve got a situation where people will be looking for work value as the interest rate differential continues to favor the greenback.

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Experts predict that coffee prices on October 27, 10 in the domestic market may increase sharply due to the impact of the world coffee market.

The main reason is that the demand for coffee in the international market is increasing, pushing up prices. In addition, coffee production in some key growing areas is showing signs of decreasing due to unfavorable weather, limiting supply.

In the international market, the price increase of Robusta and Arabica coffee is expected to continue in the coming time. Futures contracts on the London and New York exchanges both recorded steady increases, indicating positive sentiment among traders and the recovery of the coffee market after a period of slight adjustment.

Recorded in the trading session on October 26, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 1.200-108.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 108.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 108.600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 108.600 VND, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 108.500 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 108.600 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 108.800 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 108.400 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (October 26) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 10 VND/kg, down 108.600 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 1.200 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 26, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 26, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.411 USD; Delivery term in January 74 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.323 is 57 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 26, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 243.60 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 248.40 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 2.95 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; The March 247.50 delivery period is 3.05 cents/lb, an increase of 5 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 246.15 cents/lb, an increase of 3.15 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 26, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.10 is 0.22 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 300.00 USD/ton, up 0.37% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 301.40%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Weather reports in Brazil continue to be positive across most coffee growing regions, with rainfall providing much-needed moisture after the dry winter months. Forecasters expect more rain next week, which should have a positive impact on flowering and preparation for Brazil’s 2025-2026 crop.

In Vietnam, Tropical Storm Trami is moving toward central Vietnam in the coming days after sweeping across the Philippines. The storm could bring heavy rains to parts of the world’s largest robusta coffee producer. It is too early to predict the impact on coffee growing areas, but heavy rains could disrupt ongoing harvesting activities, I&M Smith said.

The global coffee industry has been and continues to face many difficulties and challenges due to climate change which has greatly affected productivity, output and quality. Drought and heat waves have lasted from the beginning of the season, followed by storms at the end of the season.

In addition, geopolitical instability, war, local embargoes between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and the Gaza Strip, and many other places in the world with prolonged developments continue to impact the difficulties of the global economy in the medium and long term. Up to now, coffee prices have cooled down, but the market situation in the upcoming 2024-2025 crop year is still difficult to predict.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

Experts predict that coffee prices on October 27, 10 in the domestic market may increase sharply due to the impact of the coffee market. world

The main reason is that the demand for coffee in the international market is increasing, pushing up prices. In addition, coffee production in some key growing areas is showing signs of decreasing due to unfavorable weather, limiting supply.

In the international market, the price increase of Robusta and Arabica coffee is expected to continue in the coming time. Futures contracts on the London and New York exchanges both recorded steady increases, indicating positive sentiment among traders and the recovery of the coffee market after a period of slight adjustment.

Recorded in the trading session on October 26, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 1.200-108.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 108.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 108.800 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 108.600 VND, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 108.500 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 108.600 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 108.800 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 108.400 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 26) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 108.600 VND/kg, down 1.200 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 108.500 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 26, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 26, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.411 USD; Delivery term in January 74 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.323 is 57 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 26, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 243.60 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 248.40 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 2.95 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; The March 247.50 delivery period is 3.05 cents/lb, an increase of 5 cents/lb and the May 2025 delivery period is 246.15 cents/lb, an increase of 3.15 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 26, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 26, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.10 is 0.22 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 300.00 USD/ton, up 0.37% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 301.40%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Weather reports in Brazil continue to be positive across most coffee growing regions, with rainfall providing much-needed moisture after the dry winter months. Forecasters expect more rain next week, which should have a positive impact on flowering and preparation for Brazil’s 2025-2026 crop.

In Vietnam, Tropical Storm Trami is moving toward central Vietnam in the coming days after sweeping across the Philippines. The storm could bring heavy rains to parts of the world’s largest robusta coffee producer. It is too early to predict the impact on coffee growing areas, but heavy rains could disrupt ongoing harvesting activities, I&M Smith said.

The global coffee industry has been and continues to face many difficulties and challenges due to climate change which has greatly affected productivity, output and quality. Drought and heat waves have lasted from the beginning of the season, followed by storms at the end of the season.

In addition, geopolitical instability, war, local embargoes between Russia and Ukraine, Israel and the Gaza Strip, and many other places in the world with prolonged developments continue to impact the difficulties of the global economy in the medium and long term. Up to now, coffee prices have cooled down, but the market situation in the upcoming 2024-2025 crop year is still difficult to predict.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

• Silver trades at $33.64, bouncing back from a weekly low of $33.09 as RSI approaches overbought territory, signaling bullish momentum.
• Key resistance levels include the October 24 high at $34.29, YTD high at $34.86, and October 2012 peak at $35.40.
• A bearish daily close could shift bias to the downside, with first support at $33.24, followed by $33.00 and October 17 low of $31.32.

Silver prices staged a comeback after dipping to a weekly low of $33.09, though it remains below its opening price by 0.10% late during Friday’s North American session. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $33.64.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal remains upwardly biased, even though it has posted back-to-back days recording new weekly lows. Momentum backs buyers as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), reaccelerating toward overbought territory. Therefore, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside.

XAG/USD first resistance would be the October 24 high at $34.29, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at $34.86. On further strength, buyers could challenge October 2012 high at $35.40.

Conversely, if XAG/USD prints a bearish daily close, it could pave the way for further downside. the first support would be the October 24 daily low of $33.24, followed by $33.00. A breach of the latter, Silver could tumble as low as $31.32, to the October 17 swing low.

XAG/USD Daily Chart

Test of 20-Day Line at 2.60 Looks Up Next

A bullish reversal triggered on Wednesday off a 2.21 bottom that successfully tested support around the 200-Day MA (blue). The subsequent counter-trend rally exceeded the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement yesterday before trying to retrace to the 50% level at 2.615.

That price zone is joined by the 20-Day MA, now at 2.60. Before natural gas has a chance to rise above 2.60/2.62 and head for higher targets, it first needs to recapture the 20-Day line and exceed the 50% retracement. Notice that today’s low retraced part of Thursday’s price range but support was found well above the orange 50-Day MA, which was recaptured only yesterday.

Signs of Strength Retained

Despite the recent 26.8% correction that triggered a bullish reversal day from the new trend low of 2.21, the 20-Day MA stayed well above both the 50-Day and 200-Day lines. In concert, the 50-Day MA, a measure for the intermediate trend, remained in an uptrend and above the 200-Day MA during the correction. This is a sign of underlying strength in demand for natural gas that can lead to further highs and a test of resistance around the top trendline across resistance of a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. There are a couple reasons for this assessment.

Underling Demand Shows Improvement

Notice that when looking at the angles of the lower uptrend lines, the slope of the line, that represents the trend, has been increasing. This is due to higher swing lows that have been established since the February bottom. Combine that with the recent rally from the long-term trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, and the price behavior shows improving demand. Next, natural gas either continues to progress inside the triangle consolidation formation or it breaks out. The next potential breakout on the table is to the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price rebounds after the release of the US Durable Goods Orders data for September.
• Fresh demand for US core goods contracted steadily by 0.8%.
• Improving market sentiment could dampen the appeal of safe-haven assets.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its intraday losses after discovering buying interest near the key support of $33.00 in Friday’s New York session. The white metal rebounds after the release of the United States (US) Durable Goods Orders for September, which showed that fresh demand for long-lasting goods declined steadily by 0.8%. However, the pace at which Durable Goods Orders contracted was slower than estimates of 1.0%.

The US Dollar (USD) edged lower after the release of the Durable Goods Orders data, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggling to hold 104.00. 10-year US Treasury yields fall to near 4.19%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

The Silver price faced pressure in the last two trading sessions amid profit-booking after it posted a fresh high close to $35 on Tuesday, the highest level seen in over 12 years.

Meanwhile, an improvement in investors’ risk appetite could weigh on the Silver price. The market sentiment has improved as investors start digesting expectations that former US President Donald Trump will win over current Vice President Kamala Harris in national elections on November 5. The S&P 500 has opened on a positive note on Friday.

Also, the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Saudi Arabia has slightly renewed hopes of a ceasefire in the war between Iran and Israel in southern cities of Lebanon.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price bounces back from 33.00 in North American trading hours on Friday. The white metal aims to revisit a fresh over 12-year high near $35.00. The asset strengthened after breaking above the horizontal resistance plotted from May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe, which will act as a support for now. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $32.30 and $31.10, respectively, signal more upside ahead.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.

Silver daily chart

Experts predict that coffee prices on October 26, 10 in the domestic market may continue to decline due to market impacts. world and the new harvest situation in Vietnam.

Currently, many coffee gardens in Vietnam are starting to ripen and people are harvesting. This is one of the factors that causes the market to continue to decrease in price because Vietnam is the largest supplier of robusta coffee in the world. Although at present, coffee prices are still high at over 100.000 VND/kg, the prolonged decline has also made many people worried about the refrain “every harvest season, prices decrease”.

Poor weather in Brazil has also contributed to the price drop. According to Somar Meteorologia, rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state, reached 36,8 mm last week, 15% higher than the historical average.

In addition, although the Dollar Index decreased, the Brazilian Real decreased more sharply, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to increase. In this context, the market is concerned that Brazilian farmers will increase sales due to earning more foreign currency, thereby creating downward pressure on prices.

Recorded in the trading session on October 25, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased slightly by 2024 – 200 VND/kg, ranging from 300 – 109.600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 110.000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 110.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.800 VND, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.700 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.800 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 110.000 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 109.600 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 25) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.800 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 25, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 25, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.346 USD; Delivery term in January 9 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.269 is 3 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 25, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 25, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 242.25 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 246.95 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 1.50 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; March 246.05 delivery is 1.60 cents/lb, up 5 cents/lb and May 2025 delivery is 244.80 cents/lb, up 1.80 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 25, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 25, 10 decreased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 298.10 is 0.03 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 298.55 USD/ton, down 0.15% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 297.25%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), more than 95% of Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming season will be robusta. The growing popularity of instant and take-away coffee, combined with limited supplies due to weather, has caused robusta prices to double over the past year. The current price of robusta is almost equal to that of premium arabica, which has also increased sharply in recent times.

Volcafe Ltd., a major coffee trader, forecasts a severe global robusta deficit in the 2024-2025 crop year, which would be the fourth consecutive year of such a deficit.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the coming years, with a potential rise to $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2024, before dipping to the low $60s by the end of 2025, according to a report by JP Morgan. 

The report attributes the current volatility to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, but notes that key players in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have strong economic incentives to keep the conflict contained.

“The current situation suggests a sustained geopolitical premium in crude prices until the conflict is resolved in the short term,” said Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy.

Crude oil prices have seen a steady rise, with Brent crude moving from $71 per barrel in late September to nearly $81 in early October, only to drop back to around $73 as demand concerns surfaced. Analysts also highlight weak demand from major economies like China and the U.S., contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Rabobank International expects the market to be oversupplied by about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, which could drive prices lower.

Petroleum Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, remains confident about the country’s ability to manage crude supplies despite geopolitical concerns. “There is no shortage of oil,” Puri said at a recent event, adding that additional supplies from Brazil and Guyana are helping to stabilize the market. He also acknowledged that while geopolitical tensions can inflate costs due to higher freight and insurance, India’s crude needs will be met. India imports over 85% of its crude oil, making price stability crucial for managing inflation and fuel costs domestically.

Key points from the JP Morgan and Rabobank reports:

• 2024 Price Forecast: Crude prices are expected to reach $80 per barrel in Q4 2024 due to geopolitical tensions.
• 2025 Price Outlook: Prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025, driven by weak demand and an oversupplied market.
• Supply Concerns: Global oil inventories are at their lowest since 2017, but additional supplies from countries like Brazil and Guyana are expected to ease pressure.
• Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in West Asia, particularly concerning Israel and Iran, could cause price spikes, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, is disrupted.
• While JP Morgan and Rabobank forecast an oversupplied market by 2025, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2025 global oil demand forecast down by 300,000 bpd, now expecting demand to reach 104.3 million bpd. OPEC has also cut its demand growth projections for 2024 and 2025, citing weaker consumption globally.

Puri emphasized that despite these fluctuations, India’s energy security remains intact, pointing to India’s preparedness in managing any disruptions to global oil supplies.