United States Presidential election spurs concerns about the future of interest rates.
US Treasury yields extend their weekly gains amid a continued run to safety.
XAU/USD keeps reaching higher highs, bulls in full control of the pair.
Gold Price held at record levels on Tuesday, with XAU/USD trading as high as $2,745.01 during American trading hours. The bright metal maintains the positive tone amid the dismal market mood, given tensions in the Middle East and looming US elections.
Speculative interest began pricing in a slower pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts amid concerns former President Donald Trump may win the presidential race. Trump’s policies on taxes and tariffs are seen as a potential booster for inflation and even increased odds for interest rate hikes. Government bond yields extended their advance, with the 10-year Treasury note currently yielding 4.20%, its highest since late in July. The 2-year note currently offers 4.05%, also a fresh multi-week high.
Meanwhile, stock markets are in retreat mode, with most Asian and European indexes having closed in the red. Wall Street trades mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting sharp losses and only the Nasdaq Composite trading in the green.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The risk-averse environment suggests the bright metal will continue posting higher highs, with no signs of bullish exhaustion despite technical readings suggesting overbought conditions.
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is poised to extend its advance. The daily chart shows that the pair trades a handful of cents below its daily high, with technical indicators reaching fresh highs while heading north. Meanwhile, the bright metal runs well above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,668, far above the longer ones.
The near-term picture supports an upward extension. In the 4-hour chart, technical indicators resumed their advances, maintaining upward slopes, with the RSI indicator heading north despite being in overbought territory. At the same time, the pair develops above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,718.
Potential resistance around the 50-Day MA lurks just above today’s high at 2.40. It can be considered along with the interim swing high of 2.44, thereby generating a potential resistance zone from 2.40 to 2.44. Once the 50-Day line is exceeded to the upside, natural gas will have a chance of continuing to rally. In general, Fibonacci ratio analysis considers the 38.2% retracement as a minimum normal retracement. Natural gas reaches its minimum 38.2% retracement target at 2.52.
Correction of 26.8% May be the End
Monday’s low of 2.21 completed a 0.81 point or 26.8% correction from the 3.02 swing high reached in early-October. During the decline, the 61.8% retracement at 2.31 was broken to the downside before support was seen from the 2.21 low, a little shy of a 78.6% retracement at 2.12. Given the sharp drop and signs of support at a potentially significant support zone, it looks like there is a real possibility of a bottom. However, further signs of strength are needed, starting with a clear bullish reversal.
Decisive Breakout Above 2.375 Needed
A more decisive bullish breakout than seen today is needed next with a rally above today’s high of 2.375, followed by a daily close above the high. Subsequently, upward momentum should improve at that point if the reversal takes hold. Yet, yesterday’s wide range day may lead to further backing and filling before the ascent kicks in. Until there is a daily close above today’s high the potential for lower prices and possibly a continuation of the downtrend remains. If the 2.21 fails to retain support, the 78.6% retracement at 2.12 becomes the next lower target.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Silver price soars to near $34.50 due to growing uncertainty over US elections and escalating Middle East tensions.
PBoC’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut has improved Silver’s demand as a metal.
The US Dollar refreshes an 11-week high on expectations of moderate interest rate cuts from the Fed.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges to near $34.50 in Tuesday’s North American session, the highest level seen in over 12 years. The white metal strengthened after Israel launched missiles at Hezbollah’s financial institutions situated in the southern Lebanese cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh. Escalating tensions in the Middle East region has improved Silver’s appeal as a safe haven.
In the United States (US) economy, growing uncertainty over presidential elections, which are just two weeks away has also strengthened the Silver price appeal. Latest national polls have shown that competition between former US President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is very stiff. Market experts worry that Trump’s victory could undermine the currencies of the US’s trading partners. Trump promised to raise tariffs and lower taxes if he wins elections.
The demand outlook of the Silver as metal has improved after the People’s Bank of China’s policy announcement on Monday in which the central bank reduced one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by larger-than-expected size of 25 basis points (bps). Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), wires and cables, and mining etc. The PBoC cuts its key borrowing rates with an outsize margin to boost households’ consumption and spending on infrastructure and to revive the housing sector.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) posts a fresh 11-week high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates gradually. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs above 104.00.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Coffee price forecast October 21, 10: Market fluctuates, positive sign for coffee growers Coffee price forecast October 2024, 22: Will the slight upward trend continue?
Coffee price today October 22, 10 at the market world decreased, while in the domestic market it increased slightly. Many experts predict that coffee prices may decrease on October 23 due to the high USD, pressure on supply from Vietnam and favorable rainy weather in Brazilian coffee growing areas.
Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest producer of arabica coffee, received 115% of its historical average rainfall over the past week, according to Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia, with more heavy rains forecast from Oct. 26 onwards, which should improve soil moisture and growing conditions.
Coffee price forecast for October 23, 10: Continue to decline under pressure from supply from Vietnam
Coffee prices were also pressured by the Brazilian real, which fell to a two-and-a-half month low against the dollar. The weaker real prompted Brazilian coffee producers to increase sales, adding further downward pressure on global coffee prices.
The dollar rose for a third straight week as a series of positive economic data from the US led investors to reduce expectations for the size and pace of interest rate cuts from the Fed. The DXY index surged to 3, its highest level in more than two weeks, pushing coffee prices further down.
Recorded in the trading session on October 22, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased by 2024 VND/kg, ranging from 100 – 111.200. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 111.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong is 111.8100 VND/kg.
Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 111.600 VND stable compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 111.500 VND/kg. In the province Kon Tum at 111.600 VND, unchanged from yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at 111.800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 111.200 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Coffee prices today (April 22) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 111.600 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 111.500 VND/kg.
Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 22, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com
The January 1 delivery term is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.414 USD; the March 84 delivery term is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and the May 4.330 delivery term is 75 USD/ton, down 5 USD.
New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 22, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 244.20 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 249.70 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 248.55 delivery period is 1.90 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 247.05 cents/lb, down 1.50 cents/lb.
Brazilian Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)
The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 22, 10 decreased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 298.80 is 0.75 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 299.70 USD/ton, down 0.65% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 304.60%.
Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.
Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, is facing a crop decline of more than 10% while other countries are having good harvests. Vietnam’s coffee output is forecast to continue to decline next season due to drought and shrinking planting areas as farmers switch to other economic crops. This affects coffee supply, contributing to the recent decline in global coffee prices.
*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality
Silver price receives support from the safe-haven flows amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Israel has targeted sites linked to Hezbollah’s financial operations in Beirut, heightening concerns about an escalating conflict.
With the US election just two weeks away, demand for safe-haven silver is on the rise.
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues its winning streak for the sixth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Tuesday. The demand for safe-haven Silver is increasing amid rising tensions, as Israel has targeted sites associated with Hezbollah’s financial operations in Beirut, raising fears of escalating conflict.
Israel’s potential retaliatory actions against Iran are also back in focus following an Iranian drone breach that detonated near Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. Additionally, Israeli military forces intensified their operations on Monday, surrounding hospitals and shelters for displaced individuals in the northern Gaza Strip, which has hindered the delivery of essential aid to civilians, according to Reuters.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday as the first stop on a broader Middle East tour aimed at revitalizing ceasefire talks in Gaza and discussing the region’s future following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
As the tight US election approaches in just two weeks, demand for safe-haven Silver continues to rise. On Monday, Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, Donald Trump, presented starkly different messages on the campaign trail as they sought to win over undecided voters ahead of Election Day.
Moreover, easing monetary policies from major central banks are supporting non-yielding Silver prices. The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to announce a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Recent inflation data indicates that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may contemplate potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is projected to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price bounces back toward record highs of $2,741 on tepid risk tone.
The US Dollar pulls back, as Treasury bond yields pause and earnings season unfold.
The daily RSI sits just above the overbought territory, further upside in the offing?
Gold price is picking up fresh bids to revert toward a new record high of $2,741 early Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) buyers catch their breath, assessing the ‘Trump trade’ while gearing up for the US earnings season.
Gold price remains at the mercy of the US Dollar
The Greenback pulls back from the highest level in nearly three months against its major rivals in Asian trading on Tuesday, as the US Treasury bond yields consolidate their previous rally. A pause in the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yield upsurge allow Gold buyers to find some foothold after Monday’s sharp reversal from the all-time peak.
A tepid risk tone, uncertainty around the US presidential election and the market’s caution heading into the key US earnings reports revive the demand for the traditional safe-haven Gold price. However, it remains to be seen whether the Gold price sustains its upswing and refreshes a lifetime high as Chinese equities buck the broad downtrend and advance on China’s recent stimulus efforts.
Further, increased expectations of less aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could also infuse fresh demand into the US Treasury bond yields and the USD, capping the bright metal’s bullish momentum.
On Monday, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields spiked nearly 11 basis points (bps) and lifted the Greenback across the board, following the commentary from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.
Schmid said in his prepared remarks that “lowering rates in a gradual fashion would provide time to observe the economy’s reaction to our interest rate adjustments and give us the space to assess at what level interest rates are neither restricting nor boosting the economy.”
Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted late Monday that while she expects the Fed to continue slowly easing interest rates lower in the coming quarters, the Fed is still maintaining a data-dependent approach.
Against this backdrop, Gold price corrected sharply from a record high even though Wall Street indices tumbled, as investors resorted to profit-booking after recording their best performance last week.
Looking ahead, the US data docket remains dry and devoid of multiple speeches from Fed policymakers. Therefore, Gold traders will take cues from the broad market sentiment and any policies and trade developments from the three-day BRICS Summit, beginning on Tuesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price is looking to retest the record high of $2,741, as buyers fight back control.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing north while above the 70 level – the overbought zone. The leading indicator justifies the latest uptick in Gold price.
A firm break of the all-time high at $2,741 could challenge the rising trendline resistance at $2,746.
The next bullish target is seen at the $2,750 psychological barrier, which will likely be a tough nut to crack for Gold optimists.
Alternatively, the immediate support at $2,700, below which the October 18 low of $2,692 will be threatened.
A deeper correction could put the previous resistance now turned support at $2,670 to the test.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price hit new highest since November 2012 on Monday, in extension of last Friday’s record daily rally of 6.4%, with psychological $34.00 barrier being cracked.
Increased safe haven demand dragged silver price, as geopolitical situation is overheated and markets pricing around 90% chance of Fed rate cut in November FOMC policy meeting.
Strong bullish signal has been generated on monthly chart after bulls eventually broke above key barriers at $30.00/50 (psychological / 50% retracement of $49.78/$11.23, 2011/2020 downtrend) which where the price was stuck for four months.
Firmly bullish daily studies continue to contribute to positive structure, underpinned by favorable fundamentals.
The price is currently riding on extended fifth wave of five wave sequence from $26.39 (Aug 8 low) with FE 161.8% (33.89) being cracked.
Close above this level to verify fresh signal and open way for attack at next targets at $35.00/05 (psychological / Fibo 61.8% of $49.78/$11.23) and $35.369 (FE 200%).
Meanwhile, bulls may take a breather under these barriers as daily studies are overbought, with limited dips to be ideally contained above $32.20 zone and to offer better buying opportunities.
Disclaimer: Opinions are our own and not financial or investment advice
A lot is written about gold and silver predictions, there is hardly any research on platinum predictions.
At jpost.com, we try to fill that gap by presenting readers with our platinum prediction research readout.
Table of contents
We look at the following topics in this article. Readers who are only interested in the specific platinum predictions for 2025, not in the research, may scroll down to the bottom to find our best case and base case platinum forecast 2025.
The importance of platinum as a physical metal
The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
The role of platinum the precious metals universe
The platinum chart
The correlation between platinum and silver
Physical market supply/demand
Platinum prediction 2025 – summary
Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
1. The importance of platinum as a physical metal
Platinum, a precious metal known for its luster and durability, is also a cornerstone of modern industry. Its unique properties and versatility make it indispensable in various applications.
Catalytic Properties:
Reduces harmful emissions in catalytic converters
Facilitates chemical reactions in industrial processes
Jewelry: Popular choice for its beauty and durability
Physical Properties:
High melting point
Malleable and ductile
Resistant to corrosion
Economic Value:
Highly sought-after metal due to its versatility and scarcity
Plays a vital role in driving innovation and economic growth
2. The importance of platinum as portfolio diversification
Platinum, a precious metal often overshadowed by its more well-known counterparts, gold and silver, offers unique investment opportunities due to its distinct characteristics and market dynamics. As a component of a diversified portfolio, platinum can provide several advantages:
1. Diversification Benefits:
Uncorrelated Returns: Platinum’s price movements often diverge from those of traditional assets like stocks and bonds, offering a potential hedge against market volatility.
Reduced Risk: By adding platinum to a portfolio, investors can spread their risk across different asset classes, mitigating the impact of potential losses in any single asset.
Enhanced Returns: Platinum’s price fluctuations can generate attractive returns, contributing to the overall performance of a diversified portfolio.
2. Precious Metals Synergy:
Complementary Exposure: Combining platinum with other precious metals, such as gold and silver, can provide a broader exposure to the precious metals market, capturing potential upside movements in different segments.
Risk Management: Strategically allocating investments across precious metals can help mitigate the impact of fluctuations in any individual metal’s price.
3. Long-Term Investment Potential:
Structural Demand: Platinum’s industrial applications, particularly in the automotive and electronics sectors, create a solid foundation for long-term demand.
Scarcity and Supply Constraints: The limited supply of platinum relative to its demand can support its price over the long term.
4. Tactical Allocation Strategy:
Buy on Dips: Consider adding platinum to your portfolio when its price falls to a historically significant support level, potentially offering a favorable entry point.
Gradual Accumulation: As platinum’s price appreciates, gradually increase your allocation to capture potential upside while managing risk.
5. Chart Analysis: A Long-Term Perspective
3. The role of platinum the precious metals universe
As we gain an understanding of the importance of having some exposure to physical platinum, we now pivot to platinum’s leading price indicators as well as intermarket dynamics.
Platinum, being one of the 4 precious metals, has a rather strong correlation with other precious metals, particularly gold and silver.
However, there are some specific things that investors should know about intermarket dynamics between platinum and the precious metals universe. This is critical, both from an investor perspective and also to set the expectations right for a platinum forecast for 2025.
Platinum positively correlated to gold and silver over a long period of time.
The correlation is not strong on a short timeframe, certainly not on a day-by-day basis.
Platinum tends to thrive when gold is in a long term bull market. It typically is a leveraged play on gold’s secular bull market.
Conversely, platinum tend to underperform gold when gold was going down (2013-2016).
The chart below, exhibiting all 4 precious metals, over a period of 30 years, helps us create a framework for a reasonable platinum prediction for 2025 and beyond.
Take-away – Platinum is expected to have a bullish bias in 2025 as gold’s bull market is now here to stay.
4. The platinum chart
The platinum price chart will ultimately have the answers for a reasonable platinum price prediction in 2025.
The platinum market is consolidating around the $1,000 mark for nearly 8 years. That’s remarkable.
What’s even more remarkable is the obvious falling trendline combined with ultra strong support around $800 on the platinum chart. Anyone can spot this, no PhD needed.
Chart-wise, platinum is creating what is called a bullish triangle:
Bullish triangles tend to consolidate for a long time, much longer than most investors can wait.
Whenever a bullish triangle resolve to the upside, it does so with a vengeance. Don’t want to miss those moves, and positioning when the market is quiet during the ‘boring’ consolidation is the easiest way to gain exposure (minimal headache, only patience required).
The invalidation point is simple and clear – horizontal support must hold to ensure a ‘good outcome’.
The bullish triangle on the platinum chart makes it very simple for investors – as long as $800 is respected, platinum is supposed to be working on a bullish resolution.
Now that is an important input into a 2025 platinum price prediction. Moreover, it looks also bright for investors that can exhibit patience.
Take-away – For as long as platinum respects support, the base case platinum prediction 2025 is a move to $1,200. Visibly, this chart suggests that whenever a breakout occurs, clearing the 16-year falling trendline, a quick move to $1,440 is the obvious outcome. Based on this chart, we consider $1,200 to be the base case platinum forecast for 2025, and $1,440 the best case prediction.
5. The correlation between platinum and silver
The platinum chart messages are clear – support at $800, first higher target $1,200 followed by $1,440 which where the real platinum market starts.
Now, let’s look at potential intermarket drivers, within the precious metals universe.
Based on our own research, it appears that platinum has the strongest correlation with silver.
The next chart, showing both platinum (candlesticks) and silver (line), over a period of 40 years, makes is it crystal clear – silver and platinum are strongly correlated.
What is absolutely crucial is the long term aspect of this intermarket dynamic – the chart shows a correlation over 40 years. Investors should not compare both silver and platinum on a day-by-day basis. Rather, it is a quarter-by-quarter comparison that should be applied to discover the correlation.
Essentially, the key question to resolve to understand whether intermarket dynamics will push platinum higher, is what silver will do.
This authority in silver forecasting has a high confidence level result from this research – silver is set to move higher in 2025. The research underpinning this bullish silver prediction is based on lots of data points, but it also considers a variety of angles.
Take-away – It is fair to say that silver is set to move higher, creating bullish intermarket dynamics for platinum. This increases confidence is a sustained move higher in platinum in the coming years. The $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is rightfully a base case prediction, and the best case forecast of $1,440 is likely a reasonable platinum target either in 2025 or 2026, provided $800 holds strong.
Their latest research suggests that platinum is entering a period with supply deficit.
This should sound like music in the ears of smart investors, looking to pick up physical platinum at discounted prices, around $1,000.
Below is the platinum market prediction for 2025 and beyond, particularly physical demand and supply data, on aggregate level.
Visibly, 2023 and 2024 are pivotal years for platinum. Equally important is the adjusted forecast by the WPIC, as seen below, suggesting even tighter physical market conditions in 2025 and beyond (compared to their previous forecast).
It seems like there is a trend – a sustained supply deficit in the physical platinum market.
7. Platinum price prediction 2025 – a summary
Now, let’s combine the data points we presented in this research:
The physical platinum market is entering a longer period of supply deficit. This should be a catalyst for higher platinum prices, likely even a platinum bull market.
Precious metals intermarket dynamics: the long term gold bull market is expected to be here to stay. This should support both silver and platinum to move higher, directionally, in 2025 and beyond, for as long as gold continues its uptrend.
Platinum is strongly correlated to silver. While silver has moved up strongly in 2024, platinum has been flat, starting to turn higher. Platinum seems to be supported by silver, with platinum still a bargain in relative terms (for as long as it respects $800 as support).
All of the above are visible on the platinum price charts:
The triangle on platinum’s secular chart has a strong bullish character.
Platinum is slowly but surely turning higher, reflecting the intermarket and physical market dynamics discussed above.
Because of this, it is fair to say that the $1,200 platinum price prediction for 2025 is a base case prediction, likely even a conservative prediction.
The best case platinum price forecast for 2025 and 2026 is $1,440 followed by $1,800.
8. Platinum predictions 2025 by financial institutions
So far, among financial institutions, only ANZ Research has published a platinum prediction for 2025. ANZ Research expects platinum to rise to $1,273/oz in 2025.
Their platinum prediction sits somewhere in-between our price targets, so it’s fair to say that it seems a rather conservative target, based on the data at hand at the time of writing.
Over time, we plan to add more platinum price predictions of financial institutions as more of them decide to publish their annual platinum forecast.
“Best Overall” by Money Magazine, Award-Winning for 6 Years, Thousands of 5-Star Rankings
Expand Details
Renowned for its exceptional customer service and commitment to transparency, Augusta Precious Metals has garnered numerous accolades, including “Best Overall” from Money magazine and “Most Transparent” from Investopedia. The company’s dedication to educating and supporting its clients has earned it top ratings from organizations such as A+ from BBB and AAA from BCA.
Industry leader with over $2 Billion in gold and silver. Top rated precious metals company with buy back guarantee
Expand Details
From precious metals iras to direct purchases of gold and silver, goldco have helped thousands of americans place over $2 billion in gold and silver. Top-rated precious metals company rated A+ by the better business bureau rated triple a by business consumer alliance earned over 6,000+ 5-star customer ratings Money.Com 2024 best customer service 2024 inc. 5000 regionals: pacific ranked #17 2024 gold stevie award, fastest growing company inc. 5000 award recipient, 8+ years
American Hartford Gold, ranked #1 Gold Company on Inc. 5000, boasts thousands of A+ BBB ratings and 5-star reviews, endorsed by Bill O’Reilly and Rick Harrison..
Expand Details
With over $2 billion in precious metals sold, American Hartford Gold helps individuals and families diversify and protect their wealth. Their expert team provides investors with the latest market insights and a historical perspective, ensuring informed decisions. Trusted by public figures and praised for exceptional customer service, the company offers competitive pricing on top-tier gold and silver coins, backed by a 100% customer satisfaction guarantee
This article is for informational purposes only. The opinions and analysis herein are those of the author and are not financial advice. The Jerusalem Post (JPost.com) does not endorse or recommend any investments based on this information. Investors should consider their financial situation, investment goals, and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Consulting a qualified financial advisor is recommended. JPost.com is not liable for any investment losses from using this information. The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as trading or investment advice.
Silver price posts a fresh high above 34.00 on multiple tailwinds.
The white metal gains on the fresh escalation in the Middle East war and US presidential election uncertainty.
The Fed is expected to reduce interest rates moderately.
Silver price (XAG/USD) jumps above $34.00 in Monday’s North American session for the first time in almost 12 years. The white metal strengthens on multiple tailwinds: continuing war between Israel and Iran, and growing uncertainty over United States (US) presidential elections.
Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran’s attack on October 1, as shown by leaked documents originating from the National Security Agency (NSA) and the Geospatial Intelligence Agency (GEOIN), which was authenticated by a US official, reported by The New York Times. The scenario of escalating geopolitical tensions improves the appeal of precious metals, such as Silver, as a safe haven.
The Silver’s safe-haven appeal has also been strengthened by neck-to-neck competition between US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump for presidential elections on November 5.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) bounces back strongly after a mild correction on expectations that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy-easing spell will be moderate in the remainder of the year. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to recapture the 11-week high around 104.00.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the United States (US) flash S&P Global PMI data for October, which will be published on Thursday.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Looming US elections and Middle East tensions push investors into the US Dollar.
Treasury yields surged in a risk-averse environment and ahead of earnings reports.
XAU/USD reached $2,740 and retreated, but bulls are not yet done.
Spot Gold keeps reaching record highs on a daily basis, trading as high as $2,740.42, before retreating after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar gathered momentum alongside government bond yields as looming United States (US) elections fuel demand for safe-haven assets. According to the latest Washington Post poll, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and Kamala Harris, the Democratic one, are still virtually tied in the seven key states.
However, there are different polls showing that former President Trump outperforms Vice-president Harris in key matters such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. A Trump victory would mean quite a different scenario, with more taxes and restrictions that could negatively affect inflation and, hence, push the Federal Reserve (Fed) away from the current monetary loosening path. The uncertainty is high three weeks ahead of elections, explaining resurgent bonds demand.
In the meantime, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further support the USD. Israel launched airstrikes across Lebanon overnight, targeting Hezbollah’s financial operations, as reported by local authorities. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz noted: “We will keep striking the Iranian proxy until it collapses,” cooling down hopes for a potential cease-fire.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the risk remains skewed to the upside. The pair develops above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,660. The Momentum indicator lost its upward strength but holds near its October high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned directionless at around 72, suggesting receding buying interest.
XAU/USD has corrected extreme overbought conditions in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators turning flat after retreating from multi-week peaks, still holding well above their midlines and suggesting buyers have paused yet not given up. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, keeps advancing below the current level while above the 100 and 200 SMAs, in line with the dominant bullish trend.
