XAU/USD Current price: $2,724.07

• Looming US elections and Middle East tensions push investors into the US Dollar.
• Treasury yields surged in a risk-averse environment and ahead of earnings reports.
• XAU/USD reached $2,740 and retreated, but bulls are not yet done.

Spot Gold keeps reaching record highs on a daily basis, trading as high as $2,740.42, before retreating after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar gathered momentum alongside government bond yields as looming United States (US) elections fuel demand for safe-haven assets. According to the latest Washington Post poll, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate and Kamala Harris, the Democratic one, are still virtually tied in the seven key states.

However, there are different polls showing that former President Trump outperforms Vice-president Harris in key matters such as the economy, inflation, and immigration. A Trump victory would mean quite a different scenario, with more taxes and restrictions that could negatively affect inflation and, hence, push the Federal Reserve (Fed) away from the current monetary loosening path.  The uncertainty is high three weeks ahead of elections, explaining resurgent bonds demand.

In the meantime, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further support the USD. Israel launched airstrikes across Lebanon overnight,  targeting Hezbollah’s financial operations, as reported by local authorities. Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz noted: “We will keep striking the Iranian proxy until it collapses,” cooling down hopes for a potential cease-fire.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the risk remains skewed to the upside. The pair develops above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $2,660. The Momentum indicator lost its upward strength but holds near its October high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned directionless at around 72, suggesting receding buying interest.

XAU/USD has corrected extreme overbought conditions in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows technical indicators turning flat after retreating from multi-week peaks, still holding well above their midlines and suggesting buyers have paused yet not given up. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, keeps advancing below the current level while above the 100 and 200 SMAs, in line with the dominant bullish trend.

Support levels: 2,716.40 2,700.00 2,685.45

Resistance levels: 2,740.00 2,755.00 2,770.00

According to experts, the increase in USD and the strong short buying volume on the two exchanges pushed up coffee prices. world has been decreasing continuously in recent weeks. This week, coffee continues to be under pressure from new crop supply in Vietnam. Domestically, many localities have entered the new crop coffee harvest.

Many experts predict that coffee prices on October 22, 10 will continue to increase slightly in many localities across the country. After the increase at the beginning of the week, domestic coffee prices are expected to continue to increase due to the influence of the world market and the stable trend of supply and demand.

Recorded in the trading session on October 21, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased by 2024 VND/kg to between 100 – 111.200. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 111.800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong is 111.8100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 111.600 VND stable compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 111.500 VND/kg. In the province Kon Tum at 111.600 VND, unchanged from yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at 111.800 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 111.200 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 21) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at about 111.600 VND/kg, an increase of 100 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 111.500 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 21, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The delivery term for January 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.484 USD; the delivery term for March 131 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and the delivery term for May 4.391 is 121 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 21, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 243.85 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 250.80 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 6.50 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 249.65 delivery period is 6.35 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 247.60 cents/lb, down 6.45 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on September 21, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.00 is 2.31 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 301.50 USD/ton, up 2.19% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 311.90%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Vietnam is gearing up for a new coffee harvest. However, according to a Reuters survey, Vietnam’s coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by up to 10% due to the impact of the worst drought in a decade, which lasted from March to early May.

Nguyen Ngoc Quynh, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, said that the drought had severely damaged coffee trees, leading to a sharp drop in output, even though rain returned in May.

Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, forecasts that coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by 5,4%. Meanwhile, traders in Europe predict a smaller decline of about 3,4%, but still enough to raise concerns about a global robusta shortage.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

• Gold price consolidates near fresh record highs of $2,729 ahead of Fedspeak.
• The US Dollar extends its corrective decline, as Treasury bond yields recovery falters.
• The daily RSI holds within the overbought territory, a correction in the offing?  

The gold price is holding the renewed upside near a fresh record high of $2,729 early Monday. Gold buyers take a breather amid rife Middle East tensions and the uncertainty around the US presidential election, awaiting a fresh trading impetus from the upcoming speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers.

Gold price appears vulnerable, as Fedspeak loom

The US Dollar (USD) maintains its corrective mode intact, tracking the renewed weakness in the US Treasury bond yields, as Chinese stocks recover ground after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) delivered a bigger-than-expected cut to the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10%.

Markets were unimpressed in an initial reaction to the PBOC policy announcements but they now remain expectant of more stimulus coming in from China to support the economic growth. Meanwhile, China’s stimulus optimism alongside the persistent tensions between Israel and Iran kept the Gold price underpinned.

According to Lebanese media outlets, Israel carried out a new wave of air strikes on southern Beirut after it announced the targeting of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution’s offices. Additionally, The US government has launched an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents detailing Israel’s military preparations for a potential strike on Iran. Investors prefer to flock to safety in the traditional safe-haven Gold price, in times of geopolitical turmoil.

However, the US Dollar could see resurgent demand on the revival of the ‘Trump rally’. Markets seem optimistic that Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential elections. Trump’s fiscal and trade policies are seen as inflationary and positive for the Greenback.

In the absence of top-tier US economic data releases due on Monday, the focus will remain on risk sentiment and the speeches from several Fed policymakers for a fresh directional impetus to Gold price.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price challenged the $2,730 level on the renewed upside this Monday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flattish while holding above the 70 level – the overbought zone.

This suggests that buyers are facing exhaustion and that a pullback could be in the offing.

The immediate support, therefore, is seen at Friday’s low of $2,692, below which a drop toward the previous resistance now turned support at $2,670 cannot be ruled out.

A sustained break below that level will expose sellers to the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support at $2,653.

On the other hand, if Gold buyers manage to take out the $2,730 round level, a test of the $2,750 psychological barrier will be inevitable.

• Silver price receives support from safe-haven flows amid rising Middle-East tensions.
• Israel targeted the offices of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution in southern Beirut.
• The non-yielding Silver gains ground due to easing monetary policies from major central banks.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the fifth consecutive day, trading around $34.10 during the Asian session on Monday. This upward trend is driven by safe-haven demand amidst escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Lebanese media report that Israel has launched a new series of airstrikes on southern Beirut, targeting the offices of Hezbollah’s al-Qard al-Hassan financial institution. Furthermore, the US government has initiated an investigation into the unauthorized release of classified documents that outline Israel’s military preparations for a potential strike on Iran.

Furthermore, easing monetary policies from major central banks are bolstering non-yielding Silver prices. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) from 3.35% to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR from 3.85% to 3.60%. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) also opted to cut its interest rates by 25 basis points.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely anticipated to implement a significant interest rate cut of 50 basis points at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Recent inflation data suggests that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may consider potential rate cuts next month. Additionally, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points by the end of 2024.

Regarding the US elections, markets appear optimistic about Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. Trump’s fiscal and trade policies are viewed as inflationary and favorable for the US Dollar (USD), which could negatively impact Silver demand. A stronger US Dollar makes Silver more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies, potentially dampening their purchasing power.

• Gold price gains momentum to near $2,720 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Uncertainty surrounding the US election and geopolitical risks prompted higher demand for safe-haven assets like Gold. 
• The fear of a Chinese economic slowdown could weigh on the XAU/USD. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its upside to around $2,720 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uncertainty surrounding tensions in the Middle East and the US presidential election boosts the safe haven flows. 

The uptick in the precious metal is bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, uncertainties around the US elections and easing monetary policy expectations from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). “With the conflict intensifying – particularly following Hezbollah’s announcement to escalate the war with Israel – investors are flocking to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset,” noted Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. “Adding to the momentum, concerns around the U.S. presidential election and anticipation of looser monetary policies have further fuelled the rally,” Zumpfe added.

Furthermore, the prospects of further Fed rate cuts continue to underpin the Gold price. The US central bank lowered its interest rates for the first time in more than four years in the September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of an additional quarter-point rate cut in November stand at more than 90%. Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, lifting the Gold price. 

On the other hand, China’s sluggish economy could undermine the precious metal. China’s economy grew in the third quarter (Q3) at the slowest pace since early last year. The National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 versus 4.7% prior. This figure was below the government’s “around 5%” target for this year. This, in turn, might weigh on the yellow metal as China is the world’s largest gold consumer.

The coffee market has been experiencing complex fluctuations in recent days, with both supporting and negative factors affecting prices. In that context, the forecast of coffee prices tomorrow, October 20, 10, is attracting the attention of investors and farmers. Below is reference information about the market situation and forecast of coffee prices tomorrow, and at the same time, comments on price prospects in the coming time.

At the end of the trading session on October 19, 10, Robusta coffee prices on the London floor increased sharply, with an increase from 2024 USD/ton to 17 USD/ton. This shows that the demand for Robusta coffee is increasing in the international market, especially from the Chinese market and European countries. Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor also recorded a significant increase in the trading session on October 26, 19, with an increase from 10% to 2024%, reflecting the general optimism about the demand for Arabica coffee.

However, Brazilian Arabica coffee prices recorded mixed increases and decreases, with December 12 and March 2024 delivery terms decreasing, while May 3 and July 2025 delivery terms increasing. This shows the differentiation in demand for Brazilian Arabica coffee, possibly due to weather factors or trade policies.

Meanwhile, the domestic coffee market has been moving in the opposite direction to the international market. On October 19, 10, domestic coffee prices fell sharply, with an average decrease of VND 2024/kg. The main reason is believed to be the impact of the weather. Information from the Department of Industry and Trade Gia Lai said that continuous rain is expected to hit the Central Highlands this weekend and into the new week, which could affect the progress of the new coffee harvest. This is the time when the largest producer of Robusta coffee world The new coffee harvest is scheduled to start between October 10 and September 2024. Traditionally, people expect rain to stop around this time to facilitate harvesting.

In addition to weather factors, domestic coffee prices are also affected by policy. The Council of the European Union has announced an agreement to postpone the implementation date of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). This could put pressure on coffee prices in the long term, as the EUDR will require coffee exporters to prove that their coffee has not been linked to deforestation.

Based on the above analysis, it can be predicted that Robusta coffee prices will continue to increase slightly tomorrow, October 20, 10, due to high demand and the market’s expectation of a delay in the implementation of the EUDR. Arabica coffee prices may also increase slightly, but the increase will be lower than that of Robusta. However, due to the impact of rain, domestic coffee prices may decrease slightly tomorrow, but the decrease will not be significant.

However, it should be noted that coffee price forecasts are for reference only and may change depending on market developments. Investors and farmers should closely monitor information on the coffee market to make appropriate investment decisions.

In the coming time, the coffee market will continue to face many challenges and opportunities. Global coffee consumption is expected to continue to increase, due to the economic development of emerging countries and the increasing popularity of coffee consumption. However, the market also faces risks from climate change, epidemics and trade policies.

To ensure stability and sustainable development for the coffee market, coffee producing countries need to coordinate with each other to respond to challenges and maximize opportunities. Investors and farmers need to proactively update market information and develop appropriate business strategies.

*Information for reference only.

• Gold prices surged past $2700/oz fueled by expectations of global rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• The London Bullion Market Association’s bullish prediction of $2941/oz gold price in 12 months.
• Technically, gold is overbought, but the threat of an Israeli strike on Iran could limit downside risks.

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Gold prices advanced further overnight gaining acceptance above the $2700/oz as global rate cut bets intensified. The killing of Hamas Political Bureau leader and of the masterminds behind the October 7 attacks Yahya Sinwar had raised expectations of an escalation in the Middle East conflict, but the precious metal was already well on its way to fresh highs.

Currently, a mix of factors is fueling the gold rally. Despite the strengthening US dollar, gold prices continue to climb. Economic data from the UK and the ECB’s interest rate meeting have boosted expectations for rate cuts worldwide, enhancing gold’s attractiveness. Lower global interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding this non-yielding precious metal and could keep the rally moving forward. 

A bullish take from the London Bullion Market Association who conducted a poll recently further adds credence to the idea that Gold prices may not be done just yet. The poll was to predict the price of Gold in 12 months time with the association seeing prices at $2941/oz. 

The US election is nearing as well and uncertainty continues around the next US President. This could be another reason the appeal of safe haven continues to grow.  

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, Gold has been difficult to analyze with the lack of price action. 

Gold bears may have been hoping for some headwinds from US data but that has not materialized as housing data disappointed. This has led to some USD weakness, which in theory should aid Gold prices. . 

The concern for bulls lies in the fact that the RSI is now in overbought territory on the four-hour, daily and weekly charts. That coupled with the potential for profit taking before the end of the day leaves me slightly concerned. However, the threat of a retaliatory strike by Israel on Iran has strengthened as Israeli officials commented today a strike is imminent. This is something that could limit downside ahead of the weekend and into next week as well. 

Immediate support rests at 2700 before the 2685 and 2673 handles come into focus. 

Conversely, looking at the upside and immediate resistance rests at today’s high print around 2717 before 2725 and 2750 come into focus. 

GOLD (XAU/USD) Four-Hour (H4) Chart, October 18, 2024

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

Resistance

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200-Day MA Marks a Key Price Level

The 200-Day MA was reclaimed on September 11, leading to a sharp rally to the 3.02 swing high, which is also the top of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Subsequently, the current decline is the first real test of support around the 200-Day MA since the upside breakout. There was a brief test shortly after the breakout, but this test of support at the 200-Day line takes on a greater significance.

Given that natural gas has fallen hard, down by as much as 0.76 points or 25.4% from the 3.02 high, as of today’s low, it may yet break below the 200-Day line. Further, there has been barely a retracement during the decline. There has been only one day out of ten that natural gas has not had a lower daily low and lower high on the way down. This clearly shows sellers in charge, and they may yet stay in charge.

Lower Support at 78.6% Retracement – 1.92

If the 200-Day line is broken to the downside, the 78.6% retracement at 1.92 is next in line as a lower target. Also, the internal uptrend line, which is the lower line of the triangle pattern, needs to be considered as well, if it is eventually approached. Given that resistance was seen at the top of the consolidation pattern, a full swing to test support around the lower boundary of the pattern could yet occur before the decline is complete.

Triangle May Continue to Exert Influence

Although the 200-Day MA may not be as reliable of an indicator when inside a larger consolidation pattern, the market did recognize the 200-Day line specifically as support following the September 11 bull breakout. And there have been relatively wide price swings inside the triangle pattern given its large size. Bullish momentum accelerated following the initial test of support on September 19.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver surges past $32.00, driven by falling US Treasury yields, with prices up 2.26% during the North American session.
• The RSI indicates growing bullish momentum, with key resistance levels at $32.95 and $33.00 in sight.
• A pullback below $32.00 could see support at $31.32, with stronger backing around the 50-DMA at $30.13.

Silver’s price skyrocketed during the North American session, sponsored by falling US Treasury bond yields. Even though traders trimmed bets that the Federal Reserve would ease policy less aggressively than expected, precious metals extended their gains. The XAG/USD trades at $32.33, up over 2.26%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s price uptrend remains intact, at the brisk of registering a yearly record high. Earlier in the session, XAG/USD cleared the $32.00 psychological barrier and has extended its gains past the $32.50 area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, aiming higher, indicating buyers are gathering steam.

 Given the backdrop, the XAG/USD key resistance levels would be the year-to-date (YTD) high at $32.95, followed by the $33.00 mark. Once it is exceeded, the next stop would be October 1, 2012, peaking at $35.40.

Conversely, if XAG/USD retreats below $32.00, the first support would be the October 17 swing low of $31.32, followed by the confluence of the October 8 low and the 50-day moving average (DMA) at $30.13

XAG/USD Price Action – Daily Chart

• Silver regains positive traction on Friday and climbs to a nearly two-week top.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for additional gains.
• Move beyond $32.20-$32.25 is needed to validate the near-term positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) regains positive traction following the previous day’s good two-way price moves and climbs to a two-week top during the first half of the European session on Friday. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to capitalize on the move beyond the $32.00 round figure, warranting some caution for bullish traders. 

Looking at the broader picture, the recent bounce from the vicinity of the $30.00 psychological mark and the subsequent move up supports prospects for a further near-term appreciating move. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still away from being in the overbought zone. 

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the $32.20-$32.25 hurdle before placing fresh bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then climb to its highest level since December 2012 touched earlier this month and make a fresh attempt to conquer the $33.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. 

On the flip side, the $31.65 horizontal zone now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the overnight swing low, around the $31.30 region. Any further decline could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $31.00 mark. A convincing break below the said handle, however, might prompt some technical selling and make the XAG/USD vulnerable. 

The downward trajectory might then drag the white metal below the $30.75 support zone, back towards last week’s swing low, around the $30.15-$30.10 region. The said area now coincides with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and is closely followed by the $30.00 mark, which if broken decisively will shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.

Silver daily chart