• Gold price clings to the previous rebound above $2,650 ahead of US Retail Sales data.        
• The US Dollar stays defensive with Treasury bond yields despite hopes of a hawkish Fed in 2025.
• Gold price looks for a fresh impetus amid neutral daily RSI while below 50-day SMA at $2,671.

Gold price holds the previous rebound above $2,650 early Tuesday as buyers remain in control amid sustained weakness in the US Dollar (USD) and sluggish US Treasury bond yields. The focus now remains on the US Retail Sales data as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting later on Tuesday.

Gold price awaits US data ahead of Wednesday’s Fed event risk

Traders continue to adjust their USD positions, closing in on the Fed policy announcements, with US Treasury bond yields witnessing a choppy action, unperturbed by the mixed US S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data released on Tuesday. Data showed that the US manufacturing sector contraction deepened to 48.3 in December, missing the forecast of 49.4. Meanwhile, the US Services PMI jumped to 58.5 in the same period from November’s 56.1. The market consensus was 55.7.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets continue to fully price in the probability that the Fed will lower the interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday. This continues to underpin the sentiment around the non-yielding Gold price alongside looming geopolitical risks.

However, growing expectations that the Fed could opt for fewer rate cuts in 2025 and likely pause its easing cycle in January act as a headwind to the Gold price turnaround. Markets eagerly await the Fed’s quarterly economic projections and Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments to gauge the US central bank’s path forward on interest rates next year, which could significantly impact the Gold price.

On the geopolitical front, the US imposed new sanctions on North Korea and Russia on Monday, targeting Pyongyang’s financial activities and military support to Moscow. The political instability in South Korea and Israel-Gaza tensions also support the Gold price.

In the lead-up to the Fed event risks, Gold traders look forward to US November Retail Sales for some fresh trading incentives. The consumer spending data, however, is unlikely to alter the market’s expectations of the Fed’s move this week.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price extends its struggles with the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support at $2,655 after having closed above it on Monday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading flat at around the 50 level, suggesting a lack of clear directional bias.

Gold buyers must scale the 50-day SMA at $2,671 to offer extra legs to the recent rebound. The next upside target is at the $2,700 level.

Further up,  Gold price could revisit the multi-week high of $2,726.

Conversely, a daily candlestick close below the 21-day SMA at $2,655 could initiate a fresh downtrend toward the December 6 low of $2,613.

The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at the $2,600 area, where the 100-day SMA coincides with the November 26 low.

Weakness Persists

Also, potential support around the near-term uptrend line was breached today. This was another minor item, but it could be an early clue to falling demand that would require further evidence. Recognize that a failed breakout to new highs was established with last week’s high of 3.56. Clearly there is resistance around that price level as it also led to a bearish reversal from the first high on November 22.

Therefore, if natural gas is going to have a possibility of breaking out above the 3.56 highs prior to a sustained decline below the 20-Day MA, demand needs to be strong enough to do it. If demand is not strong enough to facilitate a new high breakout, then consolidation near the highs is possible or another decline to below the 20-Day MA. This is why small clues related to supply and demand could help to better prepare for the next moves.

Consolidation Looks Possible

It looks like there is a chance that this week may be largely consolidation type price action given the weekly pattern. Last week’s price range was from 3.07 to 3.56. The week triggered a bearish reversal as natural gas exceeded the previous week’s high of 3.28. However, the close could have been stronger as it was 3.27, below the prior week’s high. For the week the price range was relatively large. Therefore, we could see an inside week this week, in preparation for another attempt at new highs. A scenario to consider.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver trims some losses as US Dollar’s rally halts
• The pair remains vulnerable following a more than 4% depreciation over the last three trading days,
• Upside attempted remain feeble, with the $30,30 support area still at a short distance. 

Silver Prices (XAG/USD) are trading in a mild positive bias on Monday, trimming some losses after the rejection from levels above $32.00 last week. A mild retreat in US Treasury yields is supporting precious metals on Monday but the overall picture shows the pair vulnerable.

The daily chart reveals a sharp reversal pattern last week, which triggered a more than 4% sell-off in the last half of the week. Upside attempts are looking feeble so far, with previous support at $30.85 likely to challenge bulls.

So far the current recovery seems corrective, unable to put a significant distance from Friday’s low, at $30.30. Below here, December’s low at the  $30.00 round level might provide some support ahead of the key $29.65 level.

To the upside, immediate resistance is at $31.00. Above here, $31.45 (November 18, 24 and December 4 high and December 11 low) will be targeted ahead of last week’s highs at $32.30.  

XAG/USD 4-Hour chart
 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,654.21

• The US Dollar trades with a firmer tone amid cautious ahead of central banks’ announcements.
• The UK will publish employment figures and Canada an update on inflation on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD is bearish in the near term, but a steeper decline seems unlikely in the upcoming session.

Spot Gold saw little action at the beginning of the week, with the bright metal stuck around $2,660 a troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) finds near-term demand in a cautious mood ahead of central banks’ announcements. In the upcoming days, the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will have monetary policy meetings and decide on interest rates while hinting at what 2025 could bring to the table.

The Fed is widely expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps), completing a 100 bps trim in 2024. The movement has been long ago priced in, which means the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot, in which policymakers detail their expectations on inflation, growth, rates and employment. Any change to what officials were seeing back in September will have an impact on the USD.

In the meantime, S&P Global published the preliminary estimates of the December Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies. The US  report showed a solid improvement in services output, as the index printed at 58.5, much better than the 55.7 expected and the previous 56.1. The Manufacturing PMI, on the contrary, contracted to 48.3 from the 49.7 posted in November, also missing the expected 49.4.

Coming up next, the Asian macroeconomic calendar will have nothing relevant to offer, yet the United Kingdom (UK) will release the monthly employment report while Canada will release the November Consumer Price Index (CPI). Finally, the US will publish November Retail Sales on Tuesday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it is seesawing around its opening while confined to a tight range. The same chart shows the pair is unable to clearly overcome a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators remain flat within neutral levels. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes below the current level, limiting the Gold’s bearish potential.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the downside. The pair is finding intraday buyers around converging and flat 100 and 200 SMAs. The 20 SMA turned gains downward traction above the longer ones, indicating mounting selling pressure. Finally, technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with a continued slide in the upcoming sessions.

Support levels: 2,643.40 2,630.20 2,617.90

Resistance levels: 2,657.30, 2,672.70 2,689.00

• Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday and languishes near a two-week low.
• Bears await a sustained break and acceptance below the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets.
• Any attempted recovery might be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain capped.

Silver (XAG/USD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates last week’s retracement slide from or over a one-month high. The white metal remains close to a two-week low touched Friday and trades around the $30.55 region, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), during the Asian session.

From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 100-day SMA will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders against the backdrop of last week’s failure near the $32.35 horizontal resistance. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, the XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the $30.00 psychological mark and test November lows, around the $29.70-$29.65 region. 

Some follow-through selling should pave the way for an extension of the downward trajectory towards the $29.10-$29.00 support zone en route to the $28.40-$28.35 region before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the $28.00 round figure. 

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt now seems to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $31.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD towards the $31.75 horizontal barrier. The momentum could extend further towards the $32.00 round figure en route to the monthly swing high, around the $32.35 horizontal zone touched last week.

Silver daily chart

• Silver struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday and languishes near a two-week low.

• Bears await a sustained break and acceptance below the 100-day SMA before placing fresh bets.

• Any attempted recovery might be seen as a selling opportunity and is likely to remain capped.

Silver (XAG/UD) kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates last week’s retracement slide from or over a one-month high. The white metal remains close to a two-week low touched Friday and trades around the $30.55 region, or the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), during the Asian session.

From a technical perspective, acceptance below the 100-day SMA will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders against the backdrop of last week’s failure near the $32.35 horizontal resistance. Given that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction, the XAG/USD might then turn vulnerable to weaken further below the $30.00 psychological mark and test November lows, around the $29.70-$29.65 region. 

Some follow-through selling should pave the way for an extension of the downward trajectory towards the $29.10-$29.00 support zone en route to the $28.40-$28.35 region before the XAG/USD eventually drops to the $28.00 round figure. 

On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt now seems to confront stiff resistance and remain capped near the $31.00 mark. A sustained strength beyond, however, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD towards the $31.75 horizontal barrier. The momentum could extend further towards the $32.00 round figure en route to the monthly swing high, around the $32.35 horizontal zone touched last week.

• Gold price trades on a flat note near $2,650 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Huge demand from central banks and safe-haven flows could support Gold price, but Trump’s tariff plan might cap its upside. 
• Investors brace for the preliminary US December PMI data, which is due on Monday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades flat around $2,650 during the early Asian session on Monday. However, strong central bank buying and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could underpin the precious metal in the near term. Investors await the preliminary US December Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for fresh impetus, which is due later on Monday. 

Significant demand from central banks lifts the yellow metal price. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for nearly 15 years, emphasizing its value as a crisis hedge and a reliable reserve asset. According to the World Gold Council, the precious metal is expected to rise modestly in 2025 due to central bank actions, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions in key markets like the US, China, and India.

On Sunday, Israel’s government approved a plan to double its population in the occupied Golan Heights, citing threats from Syria, per Reuters. Any signs of escalating geopolitical tensions in this region could boost a flight to safe assets, benefiting the Gold price. 

On the flip side, US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plan would stoke further inflation and delay the Federal Reserve (Fed) easing policy. Additionally, the robust US economy could lift the US Dollar (USD) and undermine the USD-denominated commodity price as it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “Generally speaking, we see a stronger U.S. economy next year, which should leave less room for rate cuts and should thus bring less tailwinds for gold,” said Carsten Menke, an analyst at Julius Baer. 

Gold traders will closely watch the Fed meeting on Wednesday, which is anticipated to cut the interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The attention will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, as it might offer some hints about US monetary policy for 2025. 

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its 2024 and 2025 Brent spot price forecast in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released this week.

According to its December STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $80.49 per barrel in 2024 and $73.58 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in November, projected that the Brent spot price would average $80.95 per barrel this year and $76.06 per barrel next year.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s December STEO showed that the organization expects the Brent spot price to average $74.37 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $74.00 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $74.33 per barrel in the second quarter, $74.00 per barrel in the third quarter, and $72.00 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

In its previous STEO, the EIA forecast that the Brent spot price would come in at $76.20 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $78.00 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $77.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $75.67 per barrel in the third quarter, and $73.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Both STEOs put the 2023 Brent spot price at $82.41 per barrel.

“The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $74 per barrel in November, $1 less than the average in October,” the EIA noted in its December STEO.

“Crude oil prices fell slightly in November following a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The ceasefire removed some of the risk premium present in oil prices, which had reflected the potential for attacks on oil infrastructure and a disruption to oil supplies,” it added.

“In addition, signs of weakening global oil demand growth, primarily centered on slowing oil demand growth in China, continued to weigh on prices,” it continued.

In its latest STEO, the EIA also highlighted that, last week, some OPEC+ countries “agreed to delay production increases that were set to begin in January 2025 until April 2025” and OPEC+ “announced production targets through 2026”.

“Our forecast assumes OPEC+ will generally raise production in line with the new target levels through much of 2025, as the announced targets align with the production that we expect will keep oil markets relatively balanced next year,” the EIA said in its December STEO.

“We expect global oil inventories will end 2025 near their current volume. We estimate that ongoing OPEC+ production cuts have contributed to global oil inventory withdrawals of about 0.4 million barrels per day on average in 2024, and we expect that the extension of OPEC+ production cuts will cause inventories to fall by 0.7 million barrels per day the first quarter of 2025,” it added.

“However, we expect the subsequent ramp up in OPEC+ production and continued supply growth outside of OPEC+ will lead to an average inventory build of 0.1 million barrels per day over the remainder of 2025,” it went on to state.

The EIA said in its latest STEO that it forecasts that inventory builds will put some downward pressure on crude oil prices later in 2025, “with Brent falling from an average of $74 per barrel in 1Q25 to an average of $72 per barrel in 4Q25”.

The organization also warned in its December STEO that it continues to see “at least two main sources of price uncertainty”. These are “the course of the ongoing Middle East conflict and OPEC+ members’ willingness to adhere to voluntary production cuts”, the EIA highlighted in the STEO.

“The volatility and risk premium associated with the conflict in the Middle East moderated in recent weeks before prices increased again on December 9 following Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster,” the EIA said in its latest STEO.

“An escalation in the regional conflict has potential to reduce oil supplies, and regional political uncertainty can increase the risk premium,” it added.

“Second, although we assess that OPEC+ producers will likely continue to limit production below recently announced targets in 2025, the potential for weakening commitment among OPEC+ producers to continue cutting production adds downside risk to oil prices,” it continued.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on December 6 showed that J.P. Morgan expects the Brent Crude price to average $80 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025.

That note showed that the company sees the commodity averaging $74 per barrel across the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, $77 per barrel in the second quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the third quarter, and $69 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

“Our view on oil shifts from neutral to outright bearish,” J.P. Morgan analysts stated in the note. 

“Brent crude oil price is projected to average $80 per barrel in 2024 – $2 below our expectations from last June – before slipping to $73 in 2025 and $61 in 2026,” they added.

A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell this week showed that the bank expects the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price to average $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $92 per barrel in the second quarter, $95 per barrel in the third quarter, $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $92 per barrel overall in 2025.

“We forecast a 2025 global demand increase of 1.31 million barrels per day, with non-OPEC supply growth of 0.96 million barrels per day,” Standard Chartered analysts, including Horsnell, said in the report.

“Our model puts the Q1 balance as a draw of 0.2 million barrels per day … Our overall projected balance for 2025 is a draw of 0.1 million barrels per day, even if there are no reductions in export flows from Iran during the year,” they added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

Giá cà phê hôm nay December 13, 2024 trên thị trường world quay đầu tăng trở lại so với phiên giao dịch ngày hôm qua. Giá cà phê trực tuyến hôm nay của ba sàn giao dịch cà phê kỳ hạn chính ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US và B3 Brazil được Y5Cafe cập nhật liên tục trong suốt thời gian giao dịch của sàn, được cập nhật như sau:

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn London lúc 3 giờ 20 phút ngày December 13, 2024 có đợt tăng giá mạnh sau một phiên giảm sâu trước đó từ 33 – 55 USD/tấn, dao động 5019 – 5194 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng January 2025 là 5194 USD/tấn (tăng 33 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 5152 USD/tấn (tăng 51 USD/tấn); kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 5095 USD/tấn (tăng 53 USD/tấn) và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 5019 USD/tấn (tăng 55 USD/tấn).

Tương tự, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York vào sáng ngày December 13, 2024, cũng có sắc xanh khi đồng loạt tăng giá nhưng không đáng kể so với kỳ hạn giao dịch trước đó, mức tăng từ 1.05 – 1.55 cent/lb, dao động 307.60 – 321.25 cent/lb. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 321.25 cent/lb (tăng 1.05 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 319.00 cent/lb (tăng 1.20 cent/lb); kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 314.45 cent/lb (tăng 1.40 cent/lb) và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 307.60 cent/lb (tăng 1.55 cent/lb).

Kết thúc phiên giao dịch, giá cà phê Arabica Brazil sáng ngày December 13, 2024 thì có mức tăng, mức giảm tuỳ theo kỳ hạn giao dịch, mức tăng từ 1.85 – 4 USD/tấn (đối với các kỳ hạn tháng 12/24, 05/25, 07/25). Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng December 2024 là 402.00 USD/tấn (tăng 4 USD/tấn); kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 397.75 USD/tấn (tăng 1.60 USD/tấn) và giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 391.60 USD/tấn (tăng 1.85 USD/tấn). Riêng kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng 03/25 là 404.50 USD/tấn (giảm 4.05 USD/tấn).

Tại thị trường trong nước, theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, giá cà phê hôm nay ngày December 13, 2024 trung bình ở mức 124.100 đồng/kg, tăng 1.000 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm trước.

Giá cà phê cao nhất thu mua ở các vùng trọng điểm của Tây Nguyên (Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Gia Lai, Dak Nong, Kon Tum) được ghi nhận ở mức 124.200 đồng/kg. Cụ thể, giá cà phê hôm nay tại Đắk Lắk có mức 124.000 đồng/kg, tăng 1.000 đồng so với hôm qua. Giá cà phê tại Lâm Đồng có mức giá 122.700 đồng/kg, tăng 700 đồng so với giá giao dịch hôm qua. Trong khi đó, giá cà phê tại Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 124.000 đồng/kg, tăng 1.000 đồng so với giao dịch ngày hôm qua. Giá cà phê tại Đắk Nông hôm nay có giá 124.200 đồng/kg, tăng 1.000 đồng so với hôm qua. Còn giá cà phê hôm nay tại tỉnh Kon Tum được thu mua với mức 123.700 đồng/kg, tăng 700 đồng/kg.

Giá cà phê trong nước, mà Giacaphe.com niêm yết mỗi ngày được tính toán dựa trên giá của hai sàn cà phê thế giới kết hợp với việc khảo sát liên tục từ các doanh nghiệp, đại lý thu mua tại các vùng trọng điểm trồng cà phê trên cả nước.

Y5Cafe luôn cố gắng để bám sát nhất với từng vùng, tuy nhiên sẽ có những ngày giá niêm yết không hoàn toàn khớp với giá cà phê thu mua tại địa phương của bà con, nhưng Y5Cafe tin rằng thông tin được niêm yết là nguồn thông tin tham khảo giá trị cho bà con.

Dự báo giá cà phê ngày 14/ 12 / 2024

Các thương nhân cho rằng giá sẽ tăng ở nhiều thị trường những ngày qua, điều này có thể khiến mức tiêu thụ chậm lại, đặc biệt là ở các nước đang phát triển.

người dân phơi cà phê tại xã Liên Đầm, huyện Di Linh, tỉnh Lâm Đồng. Ảnh: Lê Sơn

Còn theo các nhà giao dịch thì mưa trái mùa đã quay trở lại tại Việt Nam, nhà sản xuất Robusta hàng đầu, có thể tiếp tục gây gián đoạn vụ thu hoạch và làm dấy lên những lo ngại mới về chất lượng. Robusta và Arabica ở một mức độ nào đó có thể thay thế cho nhau, do đó, sự thiếu hụt của loại này có thể làm gia tăng nhu cầu đối với loại còn lại.

Theo dự báo, giá cà phê thế giới vào ngày December 14, 2024, sau khi có phiên tăng tương đối mạnh vào ngày December 13, 2024, thì rất có thể giá cà phê tiếp tục tăng mạnh tại các sàn Robusta ở London, Arabica ở New York và Arabica Brazil. Do đó, giá cà phê trong nước cũng được dự báo sẽ chạm mốc lên 125.000 đồng/kg.

Bà Nguyễn Vi Hạ – Phó Giám đốc Công ty TNHH Nông Nguyên chuyên thu mua cà phê trên địa bàn thị trấn Di Linh, tỉnh Lâm Đồng cho biết, việc người dân đang e ngại chốt lời, cộng với thời tiết tại Lâm Đồng đang diễn biến phức tạp do mưa nhiều chưa có dấu hiệu dừng lại, điều này đã ảnh hưởng nghiêm trọng đến việc thu hoạch và phơi cà phê, dẫn đến lỗi lo lắng cho cả người dân lẫn doanh nghiệp thu mua do lo ngại chất lượng cà phê không đạt yêu cầu.

“Rất có thể một hai ngày tới sẽ khan hiếm cà phê cục bộ, dẫn đến doanh nghiệp không có hàng để xuất bán, do đó, tôi dự đoán giá cà phê ngày mai December 14, 2024 sẽ tiếp tục tăng, còn mức độ tăng thế nào thì rất khó đoán” – Bà Nguyễn Vi Hạ cho hay.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released recently, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price forecasts for this year and next year.

According to its December STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.51 per barrel in 2024 and $69.12 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in November, projected that the WTI spot price would average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $71.60 per barrel in 2025.

In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price will average $70.37 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $69.67 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $69.83 per barrel in the second quarter, $69.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $67.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s November STEO saw the WTI spot price coming in at $72.32 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $73.17 per barrel in the second quarter, $71.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $68.52 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel and the third quarter 2024 WTI spot price average at $76.43 per barrel.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last Friday showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI Crude price to average $76 per barrel in 2024, $69 per barrel in 2025, and $57 per barrel in 2026.

J.P. Morgan sees the WTI Crude price averaging $70 per barrel across the fourth quarter of 2024 and first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter, the report showed. The company expects the commodity to come in at $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $55 per barrel in the third quarter, and $53 per barrel in the fourth quarter, according to the report.

A BMI report sent to Rigzone on the same day by the Fitch Group showed that BMI expects the front month WTI Crude price to average $77 per barrel in 2024 and $73 per barrel in 2025.

Another report sent to Rigzone late Tuesday by Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research Head Paul Horsnell showed that the bank expects the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price to average $89 per barrel in 2025, $92 per barrel in 2026, and $103 per barrel in 2027.

That report revealed that Standard Chartered Bank sees the commodity averaging $86 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, and $88 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026.

In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone on Thursday, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst at the company, warned that WTI positioning “remains in historically bearish territory”.

“Hedge funds and other institutional investors began rebuilding their positions in Brent last week amid OPEC+ negotiations,” Hvalbye said in that report.

“Fund managers added 26 million barrels to their Brent contracts, bringing their net long positions to 157 million barrels – the highest since July. This uptick signals a cautiously optimistic outlook, driven by OPEC+ efforts to manage supply effectively,” he added.

“However, while Brent’s positioning improved to the 35th percentile for weeks since 2010, the WTI positioning remains in historically bearish territory, reflecting broader market skepticism,” he continued.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com