U.S. crude oil futures fell Monday as traders monitored the impact of Tropical Storm Beryl on Gulf Coast refining, production and export infrastructure.
Beryl made landfall near Matagorda, Texas, as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 miles per hour, according to the National Hurricane Center. Matagorda is about 150 miles northeast of Corpus Christi, a leading crude export facility in the U.S.
Beryl was subsequently downgraded to a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 miles per hour and is forecast to weaken further, according to the NHC. The storm is moving in a northeast direction.
U.S. crude oil closed lower on Friday while still booking a fourth consecutive weekly gain, as traders took advantage of recent prices after the benchmark touched a two-month high of $84.52 per barrel.
Here are today’s energy prices:
West Texas Intermediate August contract: $82.82, down 34 cents, or 0.42%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained 15.5%.
Brent September contract: $86.32 per barrel, down 22 cents, or 0.25%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 12%.
RBOB Gasoline August contract: $2.55 per gallon, little changed. Year to date, gasoline is up 21.7%.
Natural Gas August contract: $2.37 per thousand cubic feet, up 5 cents, or 2.37%. Year to date, gas is down 5.6%.
Shell shut in production and evacuated personnel from its Perdido platform about 200 miles south of Galveston, according to a company statement Friday. The platform was producing roughly 100,000 barrels per day, or bpd, about 5.5% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
“I don’t foresee this storm affecting either supply or price to any significant degree; the consumer will get their gasoline. Most people will not even notice,” Lipow said in a note on Sunday.
See Chart…
WTI vs. Brent
There will be some reduction in refining operations and a delay in getting products to Florida, but the price of gasoline should remain steady through the storm, Lipow said. Afterward, gasoline prices may drift higher as crude futures have risen recently, he said.
Prices at the pump were averaging about $3.50 per gallon nationwide on Monday, about 1 cent higher than last week but 3 cents lower than last month, according to the motorist association AAA.
“There’s enough market momentum to push prices higher throughout the next couple weeks, probably up to about $3.60 or so,” Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Friday.
But gasoline prices are unlikely to hit the $4 per gallon mark unless “we have something really go nuts,” Cinquegrana said.
PBoC left its gold reserves untouched for the second consecutive month.
Gold’s multi-month range remains in play.
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Gold prices are under slight pressure as China’s central bank – the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) – holds off on purchases for the second straight month. This absence of a significant buyer – the PBoC have been a constant buyer of gold over the last 18 months – leaves the precious metal susceptible to profit-taking after last week’s NFP-inspired rally. The precious metal traded at a six-week high last Friday at just under $2,400/oz. but has drifted lower today after the weekend news.
US interest rate cut expectations nudged higher at the end of last week after the latest US Jobs Report suggested a hiring slowdown. While the headline NFP number was slightly higher than expected, the prior month’s revisions, and the increase in the jobless rate to 4.1%, more than outweighed the headline beat. There is now a 74% probability of a 25bp cut at the September 18th FOMC meeting with a further quarter-point cut priced in by the end of the year.
Gold remains rangebound and is currently sitting in the middle of a multi-month range. The 20- and 50-day simple moving averages remain supportive, while a clean break above $2,287/oz. would leave range resistance at $2,450/oz. under threat. A break below the two moving averages would leave $2,320/oz. as the next level of interest.
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How to Trade Gold
Gold Daily Price Chart
Chart via TradingView
Retail trader data shows 51.73% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.07 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 7.45% higher than yesterday and 14.76% lower than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.83% higher than yesterday and 17.61% higher than last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias.
Change in
Longs
Shorts
OI
Daily
16%
0%
8%
Weekly
-7%
19%
3%
What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Silver price trades in negative territory around $30.95 in Monday’s early European session, down 0.95% on the day.
The US economy added fewer jobs in June, and Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021.
Fed’s hawkish stance or hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data might weigh on the white metal.
Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to $30.95 during the early European session on Monday. The white metal declines on the back of renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and higher US bond yields. However, the precious metal’s losses might be limited by the rising bets on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts this year.
The US employment report on Friday showed that employers added fewer jobs in June and that the Unemployment Rate rose to its highest level since late 2021, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States saw 206K job additions in June. The previous month saw a sharp downside revision to 218K from the initial reading of 272K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in June from 4% in May.
The downwardly revised NFP and a further rise in the jobless rate suggested that strength in labour market conditions has eased further, prompting the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the third quarter. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and creates a tailwind for the precious metal. A lower interest rate generally lifts the Silver price as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Investors are now pricing in nearly 77% odds of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 70% before the US employment report, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Investors will keep an eye on the Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for June, which is due on Thursday. The hawkish stance from the Fed and hotter-than-expected CPI inflation data could dampen the rate cut speculation, which boosts the Greenback and exerts some selling pressure on the silver price.
(This story was corrected on July 8 at 08:06 GMT to say that the precious metal’s losses might be limited, not gains).
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
So far, the correction down from the 3.16 peak (A) has seen the price of natural gas decline by 0.86 cents or 26.7%. How does that compare with prior bearish corrections? Since the initial February 2023 trend bottom there have been five corrections with a decline of greater than 20% and three that saw drops of more than 26%. Those three corrections were 55.1%, 38.7%, and 35.7%.
Given the history, since a 26% decline has already been exceeded as well as the support zone, the potential of a minimum 35.7% has become more likely. This does not mean that it will happen, but the chance for it to happen has increased. If natural gas reaches 2.03 it will have dropped by 35.7% from the most recent swing high. That will be a pivot zone to watch if it gets that low.
Bears Dominate Bigger Picture
In the bigger picture the bears dominate as there remains a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs on the chart. That pattern will remain unless there is a rally above the most recent swing high of 3.16, followed by a daily close above it to confirm strength. From the February bottom, the first upside breakout triggered on a move above the top of a symmetrical triangle bottom at 2.00. If a roundtrip is in process, the area around 2.00 could be tested as support given its significance initially as resistance. Of course, that would also more than match a 35.7% price correction.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The company demonstrates growing revenue and profitability year after year.
MSFT consistently outperforms the S&P 500.
Microsoft has been publicly traded for almost 40 years. Its stock has risen consistently, reaching a $1 trillion market cap in 2019. Today, the tech giant has a market cap of more than $3 trillion.
Here’s what you need to know about MSFT stock.
Microsoft stock price
Microsoft is one of the original tech giants. Its stock has had decades to weather various storms.
Take the turn of the 21st century, for example. On a split-adjusted basis, MSFT climbed as high as $59.97 in December 1999 during the dot-com bubble. But it dropped as low as $14.87 in 2009 during the Great Recession. It took the stock nearly 17 years to return to its dot-com bubble highs in October 2016.
Since then, it has been on a tear. Shares reached nearly $350 in late 2021. The 2022 tech sector sell-off dropped the stock price to under $215. It rallied in 2023, hitting above $384 per share in November. The climb continued in 2024, with MSFT reaching a split-adjusted high of $446.50 on June 17, 2024.
What is Microsoft’s target price?
The average target among 58 Wall Street analysts covering MSFT is $485.82.
How has the Microsoft stock price performed?
MSFT has performed very well since its 1986 initial public offering.
Over the past 20 years ending June 13, Microsoft shares have generated returns of more than 1,400%.
Microsoft earnings
Microsoft has increased its earnings over time. For fiscal 2023, revenue was $211.9 billion, up 7% from the previous year. Net income was $73.3 billion, a 6% increase. Gross margin increased $10.4 billion, or roughly 8%.
Research and development costs also increased by over $2.6 billion. Operating expenses increased by $5.3 billion, or 10%. Microsoft cited factors such as employee severance packages, acquisitions, investments in cloud engineering and LinkedIn.
Microsoft maintains a consistent net profit, with margins above 35% in the past four quarters. After seeing a decline in its cash and cash equivalents in 2021 and 2022, those figures increased in 2023.
Microsoft at a glance
In its early days, Microsoft focused on developing an operating system for IBM. The system, MS-DOS, was released in 1981 with IBM’s first personal computer. By the early 1990s, Microsoft had sold over 100 million copies of MS-DOS. It released its groundbreaking Windows operating system in 1985. But Windows didn’t gain traction until the 1990s.
Over the next 20 years, the company focused on shifting its business to a subscription model. It invested in its cloud services segment and expanded its presence in the gaming market.
Microsoft acquired the video collaboration application Skype in 2011. In 2016, it added LinkedIn to its portfolio. In 2020, the company bought game developer and publisher ZeniMax. It acquired cloud and artificial intelligence software company Nuance Communications the following year. In 2022, it bought Activision Blizzard, maker of “Call of Duty” and “World of Warcraft.”
The tech giant made a big splash in the AI world in 2019 when it invested $1 billion in ChatGPT maker OpenAI. That same year, it secured a deal with OpenAI to build Azure AI technologies. Microsoft announced another $10 billion investment in OpenAI in January 2023. About a month later, it integrated OpenAI technology into its Bing search engine.
Microsoft controversies
Microsoft has been the subject of several controversies. In the late 1990s, the Department of Justice brought an antitrust lawsuit against the company. It alleged that Microsoft held monopoly power, citing its dominant PC market share and a high barrier to entry. As a result, customers lacked viable alternatives to Windows. The two parties later reached a settlement that restricted Microsoft’s conduct.
Microsoft has been criticized for its labor practices. In 2000, it paid $97 million to settle a lawsuit brought by temporary workers denied benefits.
The tech giant has also been accused of using its complex corporate structure to avoid paying taxes.
Microsoft is the subject of the largest audit in IRS history. The agency says the company owes $28.9 billion in back taxes, plus penalties and interest. Microsoft disputes that figure.
Microsoft IPO
With an initial public offering in 1986, MSFT was priced at $21 per share. The company netted a valuation of $777 million. Before the close of the first trading day, shares reached $35.50. About 2.5 million shares were sold that day, raising $61 million.
During the IPO, co-founder Bill Gates, then 30 years old, sold $1.6 million in shares. He retained a 45% stake worth $350 million.
Purchasing MSFT during its IPO was one of the best investments of the 1990s. At the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000, its market cap reached nearly $600 billion.
Microsoft stock splits
The company’s most recent stock split was a 2-for-1 split in February 2003. The stock has split nine times. Today, a single share of Microsoft’s IPO stock represents 288 shares.
Microsoft stock split history
Opportunities and obstacles facing Microsoft
Microsoft is well positioned to continue outperforming. But it faces several potential stumbling blocks.
Public cloud computing is one of the largest growth markets in the tech world. Microsoft’s Azure is a leading provider in that market. The Microsoft 365 productivity software suite creates upselling opportunities and tremendous cash flow. This can help the company invest in Azure and other growth initiatives. A ChatGPT service is now on the market as ChatGPT Azure OpenAI Service. Microsoft’s relationship with OpenAI could give it a first-mover advantage in AI technology.
Unfortunately, Microsoft Office is a mature product and likely has limited growth opportunities. The company also faces competition for cloud services from other tech companies, such as Amazon.com (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).
Developing AI technology is expensive. But Microsoft risks falling behind Google’s Gemini and other AI leaders if it doesn’t stay on the cutting edge of development.
Strengths
Microsoft is a market leader in the high-growth enterprise cloud services business.
The company’s diversified portfolio of professional software applications creates upselling opportunities.
Microsoft has a relationship with OpenAI and is an early market leader in ChatGPT AI technology.
Weaknesses
Microsoft Office is a mature product with limited growth opportunities.
The company faces stiff competition from Amazon, Google and others for cloud services.
The PC market is relatively stagnant, which may limit growth potential for Windows and related products.
Nasdaq: Microsoft comparison
MSFT is one of the top stocks in the Nasdaq composite index, with a weight of 11.78% as of March 28, 2024.
The table below orders the 10 stocks with the greatest weighting in the Nasdaq by market cap. It’s reordered daily at market close.
Microsoft stock forecast 2024
Analysts are generally optimistic about Microsoft’s business and stock price in 2024. The analysts covering MSFT project full-year adjusted earnings per share of $11.80 in fiscal 2024.
Microsoft’s fiscal 2024 already looks rosy. The company reported 20% net income growth in its fiscal third quarter. Revenue was $61.9 billion, increasing by 17%.
Microsoft stock forecast 2025
Microsoft’s revenue is expected to grow in 2025, with an average estimated $280.03 billion. That represents about a 14.3% increase from the 2024 estimate. Earnings are also expected to grow, with an estimated $13.27 per share in 2025.
What can we expect in the coming years?
AI technology is the biggest wild card for Microsoft investors in the next several years. The company is off to a strong start with its initial wave of AI product launches and investment in OpenAI.
Investors should monitor how the company integrates Activision Blizzard into its gaming business and its long-term strategy for the gaming segment.
Frequently asked questions (FAQs)
The average target among Wall Street analysts covering MSFT is $485.82. Of 58 analysts, 47 have a “buy” rating and 3 have a “hold” rating.
As of this writing, the highest stock price recorded for MSFT was an intraday high of $446.50 on June 17, 2024.
Microsoft has split its stock nine times The first split was on Sept. 18, 1987, and the most recent was on Feb. 14, 2003. Most splits have been 2-for-1. But the company had 3-for-2 splits in 1991 and 1992.
Microsoft stock pays a quarterly dividend with a yield of 0.7%.
The provided chart illustrates WTI crude’s bullish trend since June. The price has broken through several key resistance levels, including the $80.22 mark. The current price of $83.16 is approaching the next significant resistance at $86.24. A breakthrough could potentially push prices towards the $92.02 level, which represents a major resistance point from September-October 2023.
Inventory Drawdowns Drive Weekly Gains
This week’s primary price driver was a significant reduction in U.S. crude inventories. Weekly data showed a 12.2 million barrel decrease in crude stocks and a 2.2 million barrel drop in gasoline inventories. The American Petroleum Institute reported an even larger weekly crude inventory draw of 9.163 million barrels, surpassing analysts’ expectations.
Summer Demand Outlook Strengthens
The American Automobile Association’s forecast of a 5.2% increase in Independence Day travel compared to last year supports the bullish sentiment for this week’s gasoline demand. This aligns with analysts’ predictions of a tighter market in the coming weeks as summer fuel consumption rises.
Geopolitical Tensions and OPEC+ Influence
This week saw Middle East tensions reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium to oil prices. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to support prices through production cuts, despite slight output increases from Nigeria and Iran in June.
Shift in Weekly Market Sentiment
Recent weeks have witnessed hedge funds and money managers increasing their petroleum purchases, moving from bearishness to a more neutral stance. This shift provided additional support to this week’s prices.
Price Targets and Weekly Forecast
Looking ahead, UBS projects global oil demand growth of 1.5 million barrels per day this year. Both UBS and JPMorgan have set Brent crude price targets at $90 per barrel in the coming months, with UBS expecting this level to be reached this quarter.
This document provides a basic overview of the industry, covering its definition, applications, and manufacturing technology. Further details about the main players in the global sector are included in the study. There are primary and secondary data sources in the research report on the global Fully Automatic Coffee Machines Market. During the research process, a variety of factors that affect the industry are examined, including legislation, market conditions, competitive levels, region, historical data, market conditions, technological improvements, and projected developments.
That being said, I do like owning natural gas and I do own it through an ETF. And that way I can avoid leverage. I just simply hang on to it for an investment. I’m interested in maybe buying a little bit of an ETF position in this general vicinity, but keep in mind, I’m thinking about selling in two to three months. This is not a short term trade.
I do get asked short term analysis all the time about natural gas, but the reality is, unless you know transmission, uh, rates in the United States through the lines, weather patterns in the Northeastern United States and a whole litany of geopolitical issues, you really don’t have much of a chance trying to figure out what the next day or two is going to be.
Granted, we could bounce to the $2.50 level and that would not surprise me at all. But I also think that could offer a little bit of resistance. Either way, this is a market that I think you need to build up a position. This is a swing trader’s market, not a scalper’s market.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Natural Gas (NG) is trading at $2.354, down 1.26%. On the 2-hour chart, the pivot point is $2.39. Immediate resistance levels are $2.44, $2.47, and $2.51, while support levels are $2.34, $2.31, and $2.27.
Technical indicators show the 50 EMA at $2.46 and the 200 EMA at $2.64, indicating a bearish trend below $2.39. A break above this level could shift the bias to bullish.
Asia Pacific specialty coffee market will grow by 14.7% annually with a total addressable market cap of $266.39 billion over 2024-2033. The growth is driven by rising disposable income and urbanization, growing demand for on-the-go coffee, strengthening premium coffee shops, and rising preferences for specialty coffee and green coffee.
Highlighted with 48 tables and 57 figures, this 127-page report ?Asia Pacific Specialty Coffee Market 2023-2033 by Grade (80-84.99, 85-89.99, 90-100), Product Type, Application (Home, Commercial), Consumer Age, Roast (Regular, Artisanal), Distribution Channel, and Country: Trend Forecast and Growth Opportunity? is based on comprehensive research of the entire Asia Pacific specialty coffee market and all its sub-segments through extensively detailed classifications. Profound analysis and assessment are generated from premium primary and secondary information sources with inputs derived from industry professionals across the value chain. The report is based on studies on 2021-2023 and provides forecast from 2024 till 2033 with 2023 as the base year. (Please note: The report will be updated before delivery so that the latest historical year is the base year, and the forecast covers at least 5 years over the base year.)
In-depth qualitative analyses include identification and investigation of the following aspects:
The trend and outlook of Asia Pacific market is forecast in optimistic, balanced, and conservative view by taking into account of COVID-19 and Russia-Ukraine conflict. The balanced (most likely) projection is used to quantify Asia Pacific specialty coffee market in every aspect of the classification from perspectives of Grade, Product Type, Application, Consumer Age, Roast, Distribution Channel, and Country.
Based on Grade, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
? Coffee with 80-84.99 Points
? Coffee with 85-89.99 Points
? Coffee with 90-100 Points
Based on Product Type, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
? Instant Coffee
? Ground Coffee
? Whole Beans
? Single-Cup
? Other Products
By Application, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
By Consumer Age, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
? 18-24-Year-Old Consumers
? 25-34-Year-Old Consumers
? 35-44-Year-Old Consumers
? 45-54-Year-Old Consumers
? >55-Year-Old Consumers
By Roast, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
? Regular Roast
? Artisanal Roast
By Distribution Channel, the Asia Pacific market is segmented into the following sub-markets with annual revenue ($ mn) for 2023-2033 included in each section.
Geographically, the following national/local markets are fully investigated:
? Japan
? China
? South Korea
? Australia
? India
? Rest of APAC (further segmented into Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, New Zealand, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Philippines)
For each key country, detailed analysis and data for annual revenue ($ mn) are available for 2023-2033. The breakdown of national markets by Grade, Application, and Distribution Channel over the forecast years are also included.
The report also covers the current competitive scenario and the predicted trend; and profiles key vendors including market leaders and important emerging players.
Analyze market outlook with recent trends and SWOT analysis.
Dynamic market scenario along with market growth opportunities for the coming years.
Market segmentation analysis, including qualitative and quantitative research incorporating the impact of economic and non-economic aspects.
Regional and national analyzes integrating supply and demand forces that are influencing market growth.
Market value (millions of dollars) and volume (millions of units) data for each segment and sub-segment
Competitive scenario involving the market share of the main players, along with the new projects and strategies adopted by the players in recent years.
Report Ocean is a renowned provider of market research reports, offering high-quality insights to clients in various industries. Their goal is to assist clients in achieving their top line and bottom line objectives, thereby enhancing their market share in today’s competitive environment. As a trusted source for innovative market research reports, Report Ocean serves as a comprehensive solution for individuals, organizations, and industries seeking valuable market intelligence.
