I took about a half off and now I’m still up a little bit, not overly concerned, this is something that I’m playing with no leverage, so it’s not a big deal if I’m down or percent in this position. It’s down 1% of like 3.5% of my portfolio. So again, not something to be overly concerned about. Natural gas is something that I swing trade.
I don’t want short term trade, although I’m the first to admit that a little bit of a bounce would make a certain amount of sense, but we just don’t have a catalyst. We have the CPI and the PPI numbers coming out over the next couple of days. So that could come into the picture. But really, at this point in time, I think the natural gas market is still going to suffer from the one massive problem it’s going to have, probably for years. It’s that natural gas is everywhere. It’s not rare. So, at this point in time, you know, I may add a little bit to a dip. But again, this is such a small part of my portfolio I really don’t care.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending July 5, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts had expected a 250,000-barrel draw.
For the week prior, the API reported a surprise 9.163-million-barrel draw in crude inventories.
On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 500,000 barrels as of July 5. Inventories are now at 373.1 million, up from 372.6 million barrels the previous week. That is the highest level since December 2022, but still short of the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020.
Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday. At 4:17 am ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.06% on the day at $84.84-and up about $1 per barrel from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading down 0.84% on the day at $81.64-down about 0.87% from this time last week.
Gasoline inventories fell by 3 million barrels this week, after last week’s 2.468-million-barrel increase.
The inventory outlier was distillates, which saw a 2.3-million-barrel increase in stockpiles, compared to last week’s 740,009-barrel draw.
Cushing inventories were down 1.2 million barrels this week, according to API data, after rising by 404,000 barrels in the previous week.
On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 demand estimate to 1.11 million barrels per day-up from 1.08 million bpd-while also raising the 2025 estimate from 1.53 mbpd to 1.77 mbpd, noting that the global oil market is heading for a supply deficit next year.
The EIA’s demand upgrade follows the June extension of must OPEC+ output cuts into 2025 to strengthen lagging demand growth.
Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.
Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.
Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak
Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.
Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.
Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.
Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.
Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.
Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.
Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.
Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.
Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Chair Powell testifies
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell’s prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill. Read more.
Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.
Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.
Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak
Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.
Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.
Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.
Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.
Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.
Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.
Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.
Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.
Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Chair Powell testifies
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell’s prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill. Read more.
Bearish Sentiment Dominates Until Rally Above 200-Day MA
Arguably, the retracement may be complete but there is not enough information yet to make that determination. There remains a lower target zone from 2.23 to 2.17 that has yet to be tested as support. If the 200-Day line continues to reflect resistance, a test of the lower support target becomes more likely. Nevertheless, the bearish scenario begins to soften on a decisive rally above last Tuesday’s high of 2.48. That will put natural gas above the 200-Day line, currently at 2.46. Strength would be confirmed on a daily close above 2.48.
Rally to Test Prior Support at 2.63?
The last breakdown price level was at the swing low of 2.635 (B) from June 24. Therefore, a swing back up to test that price area as resistance may play out if today’s daily bullish reversal can be sustained. Other price levels to watch on an upside move include the 50-Day MA at 2.54, the 38.2% Fibonacci upside retracement at 2.61, and the combined 50% retracement and 20-Day MA at 2.71. Each price area could see resistance on the way up.
Downward Pressure Remains
Given the bearish reaction today when encountering the 200-Day line resistance area, downward pressure remains. Unless there is a decisive rally above the 200-Day line with a daily close above it, the correction is set up to continue. As noted, there is a slightly lower target support zone that is derived from four price levels. Two come from previous support or resistance levels and two are from Fibonacci calculations. Just using the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as a target level is enough. The other levels further confirm the likelihood of a 61.8% retracement prior to the correction being complete.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.
The World Bank’s beverage price index eased in early to mid-May after reaching a record high in April 2024. This year, the index is expected to average over 20 percent higher than in 2023, with a projected decrease in 2025 as new supplies enter the market. However, the emerging La Niña could cause weather-related disruptions, posing risks to this forecast.
After reaching record highs in April, coffee prices eased in May. Both Arabica and Robusta prices declined following significant weather-related supply constraints in the first quarter of 2024, particularly impacting Robusta. The global coffee market is expected to see some relief with an anticipated addition of nearly 7 million bags this season, mainly from key Arabica producers such as Brazil and Colombia. However, the Robusta market will continue to face supply challenges, particularly in Vietnam—the world’s dominant Robusta supplier—where hot and dry conditions could impair yields. On the demand side, consumption is projected to increase by more than 1 percent from last season, reaching a record 170.5 million bags during the ongoing 2023-24 season. Arabica prices are expected to rise marginally in 2024 before easing in 2025. In contrast, Robusta prices are projected to average more than 40 percent higher in 2024 compared to 2023 before also easing in 2025. Risks to this forecast, especially for 2025, include the emerging La Niña, which could impact production in both South America and East Asia.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee.
Chairman Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission.
XAU/USD under modest selling pressure but holding above $2,350.
Gold remained weak throughout the first half of Tuesday, albeit holding on to familiar levels as financial markets traded with an optimistic yet neutral stance. XAU/USD fell to $2,349.31 yet quickly trimmed losses and bounced towards the current price zone just above $2,360 as investors assessed words from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.
Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy, Powell offered some hawkish headlines that helped the US Dollar. Among other things, he said that restrictive policies are helping put downward pressure on inflation, but adding that inflation remains above the 2% goal. Furthermore, he said that policymakers are not confident enough that elevated inflation will keep receding and that they need more confidence to abandon the tight monetary policy stance. Finally, he explained that decisions would be made meeting by meeting.
Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission and may add some interesting headlines, although the most relevant comments have already been made.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades at around its daily opening, with the risk still skewed to the upside. The pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) flat, providing dynamic support at around $2,335. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below it, while technical indicators turned flat right above their midlines.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, on the contrary, the risk skews to the downside. Sellers are aligned at around a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory without enough strength to confirm an upcoming slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs converge at around the $2,335 price zone, reinforcing its relevance as a support area.
Support levels: 2,349.30 2,335.00 2,318.40
Resistance levels: 2,368.60, 2,387.60 2,400.00
XAU/USD Current price: $2,360.03
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee.
Chairman Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission.
XAU/USD under modest selling pressure but holding above $2,350.
Gold remained weak throughout the first half of Tuesday, albeit holding on to familiar levels as financial markets traded with an optimistic yet neutral stance. XAU/USD fell to $2,349.31 yet quickly trimmed losses and bounced towards the current price zone just above $2,360 as investors assessed words from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.
Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy, Powell offered some hawkish headlines that helped the US Dollar. Among other things, he said that restrictive policies are helping put downward pressure on inflation, but adding that inflation remains above the 2% goal. Furthermore, he said that policymakers are not confident enough that elevated inflation will keep receding and that they need more confidence to abandon the tight monetary policy stance. Finally, he explained that decisions would be made meeting by meeting.
Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission and may add some interesting headlines, although the most relevant comments have already been made.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades at around its daily opening, with the risk still skewed to the upside. The pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) flat, providing dynamic support at around $2,335. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below it, while technical indicators turned flat right above their midlines.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, on the contrary, the risk skews to the downside. Sellers are aligned at around a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory without enough strength to confirm an upcoming slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs converge at around the $2,335 price zone, reinforcing its relevance as a support area.
Gold price rebounds early Tuesday after the pullback from six-week highs of $2,393 on Monday.
The US Dollar holds the downside in sync with Treasury bond yields, as risk appetite returns.
Gold price stays ‘buy-the-dips-‘ trade on increased Fed rate cut bets, Powell’s testimony is next on tap.
Gold price is attempting a tepid bounce while defending the $2,350 psychological support in Asian trading on Tuesday.
The renewed uptick in Gold price could be attributed to the downside consolidation phase of the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Traders eagerly await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimonies for fresh hints on the interest-rate cut timing.
Markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another cut is expected by December.
Friday’s disappointing US labor market report affirmed a Fed rate cut in September after the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 in June, beating the market forecast for a 190,000 gain but April and May readings were significantly revised down by a combined 111,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-on-year, as expected, registering its lowest since the second quarter of 2021.
Fed Chair Powell’s words could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, lifting Gold price to all-time highs beyond $2,400 at the expense of the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. Powell delivers two days of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, beginning later on Tuesday and followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Besides, several other Fed policymakers are also likely to speak on Tuesday, which could drive the Gold price action amid a data-light US calendar.
Gold price tumbled on Monday due to profit-taking and concerns over China’s Gold demand. Gold traders resorted to profit-taking after the bright metal failed at the $2,400 threshold while some repositioned ahead of Powell’s testimony and US inflation data due this week.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of Gold at the end of June, unchanged from the end of May, the data showed. This was the second month in a row that the PBOC refrained from adding Gold to its reserves.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns north again, above the 50 level.
Gold buyers must take out the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.
On the flip side, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.
Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Chair Powell testifies
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell’s prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill. Read more.
Gold price rebounds early Tuesday after the pullback from six-week highs of $2,393 on Monday.
The US Dollar holds the downside in sync with Treasury bond yields, as risk appetite returns.
Gold price stays ‘buy-the-dips-‘ trade on increased Fed rate cut bets, Powell’s testimony is next on tap.
Gold price is attempting a tepid bounce while defending the $2,350 psychological support in Asian trading on Tuesday.
The renewed uptick in Gold price could be attributed to the downside consolidation phase of the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Traders eagerly await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimonies for fresh hints on the interest-rate cut timing.
Markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another cut is expected by December.
Friday’s disappointing US labor market report affirmed a Fed rate cut in September after the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 in June, beating the market forecast for a 190,000 gain but April and May readings were significantly revised down by a combined 111,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-on-year, as expected, registering its lowest since the second quarter of 2021.
Fed Chair Powell’s words could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, lifting Gold price to all-time highs beyond $2,400 at the expense of the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. Powell delivers two days of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, beginning later on Tuesday and followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Besides, several other Fed policymakers are also likely to speak on Tuesday, which could drive the Gold price action amid a data-light US calendar.
Gold price tumbled on Monday due to profit-taking and concerns over China’s Gold demand. Gold traders resorted to profit-taking after the bright metal failed at the $2,400 threshold while some repositioned ahead of Powell’s testimony and US inflation data due this week.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of Gold at the end of June, unchanged from the end of May, the data showed. This was the second month in a row that the PBOC refrained from adding Gold to its reserves.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns north again, above the 50 level.
Gold buyers must take out the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.
On the flip side, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.
Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Chair Powell testifies
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell’s prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill. Read more.
The result of the French elections brought relief to financial markets.
Speculative interest awaits a United States Consumer Price Index update.
XAU/USD turned bearish in the near term, next support area at around $2,330.
Gold prices were sharply lower on Monday, with XAU/USD trading in the $2,350 region after surpassing the $2,390 level on Friday. Financial markets started the week in a better mood after the surprise defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party in the French elections. After coming up victorious in the preliminary polling, the party ended up in third place, while a coalition of left parties led the votes.
Additionally, market participants welcomed hints of easing inflationary pressures in the United States (US), reviving hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September. Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of disinflation, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed wages rose at a slower pace in June, while the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in the same month.
Relevant macroeconomic news will come later in the week, as the US is scheduled to release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Thursday.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is under pressure, yet not bearish. In the daily chart, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, although the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) has lost its directional strength and stands pat above the bullish 100 and 200 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators turned lower, gaining downward momentum albeit within positive levels.
The near-term picture is bearish. The intraday slump put XAU/USD below a now flat 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMA stand around the $2,330 level, reinforcing its relevance. The long bearish candles indicate strong selling interest, while technical indicators heading south almost vertically and crossing their midlines into negative territory anticipate another leg s th. Bulls may reappear on an approach to the $2,330 mark, although a break below the level could anticipate a steeper slide towards the $2,300 threshold.
Support levels: 2,341.50 2,329.20 2,313.60
Resistance levels: 2,368.60, 2,387.60 2,400.00
XAU/USD Current price: $2,355.43
The result of the French elections brought relief to financial markets.
Speculative interest awaits a United States Consumer Price Index update.
XAU/USD turned bearish in the near term, next support area at around $2,330.
Gold prices were sharply lower on Monday, with XAU/USD trading in the $2,350 region after surpassing the $2,390 level on Friday. Financial markets started the week in a better mood after the surprise defeat of Marine Le Pen’s far-right party in the French elections. After coming up victorious in the preliminary polling, the party ended up in third place, while a coalition of left parties led the votes.
Additionally, market participants welcomed hints of easing inflationary pressures in the United States (US), reviving hopes for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September. Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged signs of disinflation, and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed wages rose at a slower pace in June, while the Unemployment Rate ticked higher to 4.1% in the same month.
Relevant macroeconomic news will come later in the week, as the US is scheduled to release the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report next Thursday.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is under pressure, yet not bearish. In the daily chart, the pair keeps developing above all its moving averages, although the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) has lost its directional strength and stands pat above the bullish 100 and 200 SMA. At the same time, technical indicators turned lower, gaining downward momentum albeit within positive levels.
The near-term picture is bearish. The intraday slump put XAU/USD below a now flat 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMA stand around the $2,330 level, reinforcing its relevance. The long bearish candles indicate strong selling interest, while technical indicators heading south almost vertically and crossing their midlines into negative territory anticipate another leg s th. Bulls may reappear on an approach to the $2,330 mark, although a break below the level could anticipate a steeper slide towards the $2,300 threshold.
Moreover, since the downtrend price structure remains, a decline to test the next lower support zone is still a possibility. Keep in mind that rallies will be heading up into potential resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.47. Since it is a long-term moving average and the price of natural gas continued to fall after an initial decline below the line last Tuesday, it can be expected to mark an area where resistance may be encountered on the way up.
Lower Price Zone Begins at 2.23
The next lower support zone looks to be around 2.23 to 2.17. It begins with a prior swing low from December and a resistance level from early-February. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement completes within the price zone at 2.18, while an extended falling ABCD pattern completes at 2.20. In summary, there are four indicators pointing to the 2.23 to 2.17 price zone as potential support.
Further, on the weekly chart, the 20-Week MA shows within the price zone at 2.20. The 2.17 price level is shown to have a harmonic relationship with the price drop seen in the first AB leg of the decline. Rather than the AB and CD legs of the decline being equal, a Fibonacci ratio of 127.2% is applied to the price distance seen in the AB leg and that amount is subtracted from the beginning of the CD decline.
When more than normal indicators point to a price range, the market is telling us to pay attention. Therefore, natural gas may rally further from today’s low, but it is heading into potential resistance. If resistance is strong enough it may turn the price of natural gas back down for a potential test of support beginning from the 2.23 price area.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
