Crude oil price opened today’s trading with sharp rise to touch 75.52$ level, and found solid resistance there, to rebound downwards strongly and reach 73.90$ level again, these mixed trades – affected by Trump decision to impose the tariffs on Canada and Mexico – make us prefer to continue with our neutrality until we get clearer signal for the next trend, to continue monitoring the price according to 73.90$ level.
Note that continuing to decline and breaking this level will push the price to resume the bearish track that its next target located at 72.30$, while consolidating above it will push the price to recover and visit 75.52$ again.
The expected trading range for today is between 72.40$ support and 75.60$ resistance
Gold price corrects from record highs to return below $2,800 early Monday.
US Presi. Trump started the trade war on Saturday, bolstering the US Dollar demand.
Markets resort to ‘sell everything’ mode as risk aversion intensifies.
The daily technical setup favors Gold buyers despite the ongoing retracement.
Gold price is falling back below $2,800 early Monday, extending its correction from record highs of $2,817 set on Friday. Despite, the latest leg down in Gold price, buyers remain hopeful as global trade war fears intensify.
Gold price down but not out
US President Donald Trump on Saturday imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico while slapping China with 10% levy, effective 05:01 GMT on Tuesday, citing that the measures were necessary to combat illegal immigration and the drug trade.
In response, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, in a tit-for-tat, announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods. Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry said it would challenge Trump’s levies at the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Trump’s tariffs initiated the inevitable trade war, with Asian traders hitting their desks and reacting negatively to the weekend announcement. Risk sentiment is heavily hit, reflective of the 1.40% decline in US S&P 500 futures.
Markets have resorted to ‘sell everything’ mode in times of panic and uncertainty, flocking to the go-to haven – the US Dollar (USD) at the expense of the traditional store of value, Gold. Traders are taking profits off the table in Gold price after it set record highs last week to cover for their losses in other financial assets.
However, if China retaliates with tariffs and risk-off flows intensify, Gold price could also find some support amid mounting concerns over a global trade war and its impact on global growth and inflation. Trump’s trade policies are perceived as inflationary, eventually boding well for the renowned inflation-hedge – Gold price.
Besides, traders might also take some cues from the top-tier US ISM Manufacturing PMI due later in the American session on Monday. Amid trade worries, discouraging China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which arrived at 50.1 in January, adds to the gloom. Meanwhile, speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will also provide some trading incentives in Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive as long as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 63.50, holds above the 50 level.
Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross remains in play.
Gold price needs a sustained move above the $2,800 level to retest the all-time highs of $2,817. The next topside barrier is at the $2,850 psychological level.
Conversely, the extended correction could challenge the January 30 low of $2,754, below which the previous week’s low of of $2,731 will come to buyers’ rescue.
The last line of defense for them is seen at the 21-day SMA at $2,721.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Goldman Sachs raises Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026
Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for Brent crude oil prices for 2025 and 2026, citing a reduction in commercial reserves within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which has resulted in a tightening of supply, Azernews reports.
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Bitcoin price (BTCUSD) is testing the key resistance 95195.00$ now, noticing that the EMA50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, while stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly to show overbought signals now.
Therefore, these factors encourage us to keep our expectations of continuing the bearish correction in the upcoming sessions, reminding you that our targets begin at 91000.00$ and extend to 87055.00$, reminding you that breaching 95195.00$ will stop the bearish trend and push the price to return to the main bullish track again.
The expected trading range for today is between 91500.00$ support and 96500.00$ resistance.
Silver price could regain its ground as the daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias.
The pair may appreciate toward its primary resistance around its two-month high of $32.28.
The immediate support appears at a nine-day EMA of $30.82, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $31.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. A daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias for the precious metal, as its price continues to rise within an ascending channel pattern.
The XAG/USD pair trades above both the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that short-term momentum is strong. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, reinforcing the active bullish sentiment.
On the upside, the Silver price could find its initial resistance around its two-month high of $32.28, last achieved on December 9. A break above this level would support the XAG/USD pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at $32.60.
Immediate support is located at a nine-day EMA of $30.82, followed closely by a 14-day EMA of $30.66 which is aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary. A break below this crucial support zone would cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around its four-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Breakout Above Friday’s High is a Sign of Strength
Depending on where it closes the day, today’s price action might result in a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. If it does, a breakout above Friday’s high of 3.12 will show strength and a one-day bullish reversal from a key long-term support zone. Whether strength continues from there remains to be seen.
Further testing of the support zone may also occur before bullish follow through. Upside price targets for a bullish reversal, if it is sustained, start with the completion of a gap at a daily low of 3.36 and a prior swing high at 3.39. Notice that there are two metrics pointing to a similar price area thereby increasing the potential significance of that price zone.
Key Upside Target Around 50-Day MA
Since the 50-Day MA was busted on the way down earlier this week, it seems likely to be tested as resistance on the way back up. And the 50-Day line is joined by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Together, they identify a potential resistance zone around 3.51. Next up, there is a potentially more significance resistance zone from 3.64 to 3.71.
The range begins with a prior swing high and top of the symmetrical triangle bottom at 3.64. Included within the range is the 50% retracement at 3.67. Finally, it ends with the 20-Day MA, which is currently at 3.71. Note that the 20-Day line is falling and getting closer to the 50% retracement. A declining trendline showing dynamic resistance of the current bearish correction has been added to the chart as a guide.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Brent oil price faces negative pressure to attempt to break 77.05$ level, which urges caution from the upcoming trading, as the price needs to hold above this level to keep the positive scenario active for the upcoming period, reminding you that the main waited target reaches 78.40$, taking into consideration that confirming breaking 77.05$ will put the price under negative pressure that targets 75.66$ initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 76.00$ support and 79.00$ resistance.
Silver price could regain its ground as the daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias.
The pair may appreciate toward its primary resistance around its two-month high of $32.28.
The immediate support appears at a nine-day EMA of $30.82, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
Silver price (XAG/USD) halts its three-day winning streak, trading around $31.30 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Friday. A daily chart analysis suggests a persistent bullish bias for the precious metal, as its price continues to rise within an ascending channel pattern.
The XAG/USD pair trades above both the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting that short-term momentum is strong. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, reinforcing the active bullish sentiment.
On the upside, the Silver price could find its initial resistance around its two-month high of $32.28, last achieved on December 9. A break above this level would support the XAG/USD pair to test the upper boundary of the ascending channel at $32.60.
Immediate support is located at a nine-day EMA of $30.82, followed closely by a 14-day EMA of $30.66 which is aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary. A break below this crucial support zone would cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around its four-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold price settles above 2790.00$ level, to keep the bullish trend scenario active for today, reminding you that our next station is located at 2808.20$, which breaching it represents the key to head towards 2850.00$ as a next main target.
The EMA50 supports the suggested bullish wave, which will remain valid unless breaking 2790.00$ and holding below it.
The expected trading range for today is between 2780.00$ support and 2820.00$ resistance.
The GBPJPY pair faced strong negative pressures yesterday to notice crawling below 191.90 level and suffering some losses by touching 191.15 level, while the current positive rebound won’t allow the price to regain the bullish track due to the MA55 consolidation near 50% Fibonacci correction level at 194.10, to confirm confining trades within the negative track for the near-term trades.
Also, stochastic crawl below 50 level will increase the negative pressures to expect suffering additional losses by crawling towards 190.60 followed by reaching the next support at 189.50.
The expected trading range for today is between 190.60 and 192.60
