Failure Following Strong Opening is Bearish Behavior

Such a bearish reaction to a strong opening is not bullish behavior. It creates further uncertainty as to whether the uptrend may have more upside to go before a deeper retracement, or if today creates a second high that leads to a bearish continuation. The 200-Day MA at 2.46, along with the recent swing low of 2.475 are the near-term price levels to watch for support. However, a retest of support around the 200-Day line could lead to a failure and a deeper retracement that targets lower price levels.

Correction Can Include a Retracement and/or Consolidation

The correction, if it does continue, could take place with a deeper retracement or consolidation. As of today, a possible consolidation range would have a high of 2.92 and a low of 2.475. But since the 200-Day line is so close to the recent swing low, they can be watched together. Notice what is happening with the purple 20-Day MA. It is rising and heading towards the 200-Day line. If natural gas further consolidates above the 200-Day line, the 20-Day line may continue to rise. It is leaning towards a possible crossing above the 200-Day line, which would be bullish overall and a sign that demand is improving. The 20-Day MA is now a match with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.41.

20-Day MA is Current Trend Support to Watch

For the current advance the 20-Day line is the key trend support line to watch during weakness. If it remains a support boundary the chance for a continuation higher in the price of natural gas remains. Alternatively, a drop below the line increases the chance to a test of support at lower prices. The 50-Day MA at 2.03 being one of the lower price levels. That should be the maximum of a retracement, but certainly support can be seen higher.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Interest Rate Concerns

Despite the recent upbeat sentiment, concerns over persistent high U.S. interest rates could limit further significant gains in oil prices. Higher interest rates elevate borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic activity and reducing oil demand. Last week, these concerns contributed to a weekly decline in crude prices.

Healthy Oil Demand Signals

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that despite fears of softer demand growth due to high interest rates, real-time mobility data shows that oil demand remains robust. Supporting this, U.S. air travel has surged, with domestic flight seat numbers in May increasing by 5% month-on-month and nearly 6% year-on-year, surpassing 2019 levels, according to flight analytics firm OAG.

OPEC+ Meeting Expectations

Looking ahead, traders are focused on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2. The market anticipates that the group will maintain voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, which should support prices. The start of the U.S. summer driving season is also expected to bolster demand and prices.

Saudi Arabia’s Potential Price Cuts to Asia

In a separate development, Saudi Arabia may reduce July oil prices to Asia for the first time in five months. Sources suggest the official selling price for Arab Light crude could fall by 30 to 50 cents per barrel due to weakened Middle East benchmarks and Asian refining margins. The narrowing backwardation in the Dubai market has influenced this potential price cut, signaling eased supply tightness.

Market Forecast: Bullish Outlook

Given the anticipated OPEC+ supply cuts and robust U.S. summer demand, oil prices are expected to move higher in the short term. The pressure from sustained high U.S. interest rates and potential price adjustments by major producers like Saudi Arabia will be key factors to monitor. Overall, the market appears poised for a bullish run, dependent on these factors and broader economic conditions.

Technical Analysis

XAU/USD Current price: $2,340.30

• Federal Reserve officials’ words cooled hopes for a September interest rate cut.
• Treasury yields surged to fresh one-month highs, underpinning US Dollar demand.
• XAU/USD gains downward traction and approaches a relevant support level at $2,325.30.

Spot Gold is under selling pressure mid-American session, pressuring an intraday low of $2,334.34 a troy ounce. The US Dollar gathered near-term strength at the beginning of the day, giving up gains during European trading hours. After Wall Street’s opening, however, the USD resumed its advance with a more sustainable momentum and trades sharply up across the FX board.

Markets are in a sour mood amid comments from Federal Reserve’s (Fed) officials, further cooling down hopes for upcoming interest rate cuts this year amid stubbornly high inflation levels. Among others,  Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the monetary policy stance is restrictive, adding policymakers haven’t entirely ruled out additional interest-rate increases, speaking at an event in London. “I don’t think anybody has totally taken rate increases off the table,” Kashkari said. As a result, chances of a no-change in rates in September have increased to roughly 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

At the same time, easing demand for United States (US) government bonds pushed yields higher, adding to the USD’s near-term strength. The 10-year Treasury note offers 4.61%, while the 2-year note yields 4.98%, the highest in a month and close to the critical 5.0% threshold.

Data has been scarce, with investors waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures to be released on Friday. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is expected to show price pressures remained above the central bank’s goal in April, following an uptick in the previous three months.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The dismal market mood prevents XAU/USD from falling further despite fresh USD demand. Technical readings in the daily chart show the pair could extend its slide. It is falling below a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while technical indicators gain downward traction and are piercing their midlines, which is not enough to confirm a continued slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north, although far below the current level.

The pair turned bearish in the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, although a continued decline seems unlikely. XAU/USD trades below all its moving averages, with a flat 20 SMA providing near-term resistance at around 2,347.10. At the same time, technical indicators turned flat after crossing their midlines into negative territory, limiting the downward scope. The pair set a relevant low last week at $2,325.30, the level to break to confirm a stepper decline ahead.

Support levels: 2,334.35 2,325.30 2,307.10

Resistance levels: 2,347.10 2,364.00 2,372.90 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,340.30

• Federal Reserve officials’ words cooled hopes for a September interest rate cut.
• Treasury yields surged to fresh one-month highs, underpinning US Dollar demand.
• XAU/USD gains downward traction and approaches a relevant support level at $2,325.30.

Spot Gold is under selling pressure mid-American session, pressuring an intraday low of $2,334.34 a troy ounce. The US Dollar gathered near-term strength at the beginning of the day, giving up gains during European trading hours. After Wall Street’s opening, however, the USD resumed its advance with a more sustainable momentum and trades sharply up across the FX board.

Markets are in a sour mood amid comments from Federal Reserve’s (Fed) officials, further cooling down hopes for upcoming interest rate cuts this year amid stubbornly high inflation levels. Among others,  Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said the monetary policy stance is restrictive, adding policymakers haven’t entirely ruled out additional interest-rate increases, speaking at an event in London. “I don’t think anybody has totally taken rate increases off the table,” Kashkari said. As a result, chances of a no-change in rates in September have increased to roughly 53%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

At the same time, easing demand for United States (US) government bonds pushed yields higher, adding to the USD’s near-term strength. The 10-year Treasury note offers 4.61%, while the 2-year note yields 4.98%, the highest in a month and close to the critical 5.0% threshold.

Data has been scarce, with investors waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures to be released on Friday. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge is expected to show price pressures remained above the central bank’s goal in April, following an uptick in the previous three months.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The dismal market mood prevents XAU/USD from falling further despite fresh USD demand. Technical readings in the daily chart show the pair could extend its slide. It is falling below a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while technical indicators gain downward traction and are piercing their midlines, which is not enough to confirm a continued slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading north, although far below the current level.

The pair turned bearish in the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, although a continued decline seems unlikely. XAU/USD trades below all its moving averages, with a flat 20 SMA providing near-term resistance at around 2,347.10. At the same time, technical indicators turned flat after crossing their midlines into negative territory, limiting the downward scope. The pair set a relevant low last week at $2,325.30, the level to break to confirm a stepper decline ahead.

Support levels: 2,334.35 2,325.30 2,307.10

Resistance levels: 2,347.10 2,364.00 2,372.90 

Rising Daily Volatility

Daily volatility in the natural gas market has escalated, with daily trading ranges expanding significantly. According to NatGasWeather, recent sessions have seen daily price movements of 10-20 cents, compared to a more stable 10-cent range in previous months. This increased volatility is contributing to uncertainty in market direction.

Weather and Demand Outlook

According to NatGasWeather, from May 29 to June 4, the southern U.S. is expected to experience very warm to hot weather, with temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to 100s in desert areas. The northern U.S. will see milder conditions, with highs in the 60s to lower 80s. However, a warm-up is anticipated next week, potentially boosting national demand for natural gas as temperatures rise into the 80s in the northern regions and remain hot in the southern areas.

Market Reactions and Storage Levels

U.S. natural gas futures rose by 3% on Tuesday due to expectations of higher demand over the next two weeks and increased LNG export activity. Despite these gains, there are indications of oversupply, with gas stockpiles about 27% above normal levels for this time of year. The June futures contract rose by 2.8% to $2.590 per mmBtu, while July futures increased by 2.0% to $2.83 per mmBtu.

Supply and Production Factors

Natural gas production in the Lower 48 states has averaged 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May, down from 98.2 bcfd in April. Despite this, daily output has increased by 1.5 bcfd since early May. The rise in futures prices over the past month has encouraged some drillers to ramp up production. Nevertheless, overall production is still down around 8% in 2024 due to delayed well completions and reduced drilling activities.

Export Activities

LNG export plants have seen increased activity, with gas flows rising from an average of 11.9 bcfd in April to 12.8 bcfd in May. This is largely due to the resumption of operations at Freeport LNG’s plant in Texas. However, exports are still below the December 2023 record of 14.7 bcfd due to ongoing maintenance at various facilities.

Market Forecast

Given the current market conditions, the short-term outlook for U.S. natural gas prices remains bearish. Despite higher demand forecasts and increased LNG exports, the significant oversupply and rising production levels are likely to continue putting downward pressure on prices. Traders should remain cautious and monitor weather patterns and production data closely.

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam’s coffee output in the 2023–24 crop year is estimated to decrease by 20 per cent compared to the previous crop year, to 1.47 million tonnes, the lowest in four years, putting pressure on Robusta supply in the world market, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Due to the impact of climate change, the dry season comes earlier than usual in Việt Nam, and prolonged hot weather causes water levels at dams in some provinces to rapidly decrease.

Fears that drought could affect crops have caused domestic coffee prices to increase sharply in the past week.

The price of coffee bean in the Central Highlands and southern provinces soared by VNĐ1,500 (US$0.059) per kilogramme, bringing the domestic purchase price of coffee bean to VNĐ114,500 – VNĐ116,000/kg.

Over the past years, coffee prices were low, prompting many farmers to gradually switch to higher value crops. However, this year’s coffee prices are experiencing a record high, and it’s expected to be an opportunity to motivate farmers to restore coffee growing area.

Việt Nam exported 756,000 tonnes of coffee, earning nearly US$2.57 billion in the first four months of the year, up 5.4 per cent in volume and 57.9 per cent in value from the same period last year. — VNS

Market Drivers

On the backdrop of a consensus among traders and analysts, the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia, is expected to maintain its voluntary production cuts. These cuts sum up to approximately 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd). This decision aims to stabilize the market and avert further downward pressure on prices, which have compelled several producers to accrue more debt and delay key projects.

Policy and Production Adjustments

OPEC+ has rescheduled its pivotal output policy meeting to June 2, transitioning from an in-person gathering in Vienna to a virtual format. This adjustment allows for continued strategic discussions as the group solidifies its stance on extending the current output restrictions. These include an additional 3.66 million bpd cuts, bringing the total to about 5.86 million bpd, representing roughly 5.7% of global daily demand.

Demand Indicators and Market Sentiment

The onset of the northern hemisphere’s summer has traditionally boosted demand for road and aviation fuels. Early signs of robust U.S. holiday travel during the Memorial Day weekend, marked by increased road trips and strong air travel figures, are supporting crude prices. Furthermore, market participants are closely monitoring U.S. crude inventory data, with forecasts suggesting a decrease in stockpiles, which could further tighten the market.

Market Forecast: Bullish

Looking ahead, the oil market exhibits a bullish outlook as the combined effect of sustained production cuts and a resurgence in demand could continue to push prices upward. The forthcoming OPEC+ meeting will be crucial in shaping short-term price movements, with a likely extension of cuts supporting higher price levels. Investors should also keep an eye on U.S. inflation data due later this week, which might influence market expectations regarding interest rate adjustments and subsequently, oil prices.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas markets have pulled back during the trading session on Tuesday to reach down towards the 50 day EMA yet again. This is an indicator that seems to be like a magnet for price in this market, so of course it does make sense that we would find a way back down here. Ultimately, I think that we eventually go higher in the short term, due to the fact that there will be much more demand for natural gas as cold temperatures slam into the United States. That being said, I still do not know whether or not we can make a fresh, new high but clearly that would be the hope of bullish traders. It all comes down to weather and forecasts, especially around the New York, Boston, and Washington DC areas. Remember, natural gas tends to be a very localized market.

NATGAS Video 02.12.20

To the downside, I see the $2.60 level is essentially the short term “floor” in the market, but I still prefer buying dips regardless. I have no interest in shorting natural gas until we start trading spring contracts, so this is a one-way trade as far as I am concerned. Currently, we are trading the January 2021 contract and that of course does imply that there would be a certain amount of demand going forward. As long as that is going to be the case, I think we have to look at this as a market that still has a lot of upward possibilities, and need to ignore selling opportunities, lease for the time being. Ultimately, I am bearish in natural gas longer term but over the next month or two I will continue to favor the upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

More From FXEMPIRE:

Natural gas markets have rallied significantly during the course of the trading session on Friday, breaking above the 50 day EMA and clearing the $5.25 level. Because of this, the market looks as if it is ready to continue the upward march, but we need to take out that shooting star from last week and order to have the “all clear” for much bigger move. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to be a “buy on the dips” scenario as the temperatures plunge again, and of course there are concerns about overall attitude of the reopening trade. Ultimately, I think natural gas continues to be one of the better trade for the next month or so.

NATGAS Video 29.11.21

Keep in mind that the markets will continue to see a lot of support underneath, especially near the $4.75 level. The temperatures are starting to drop again in the United States, so that of course helps the situation. Natural gas tends to move on the latest weather report, so you need to be aware of that as well. All things been equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of noise, but more upward pressure than down over the next few weeks. Eventually, we will start trading the spring contracts, but we are not doing so yet, so one still has to think higher more than anything else. The market tends to be very erratic, so you need to be cautious about your position size.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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False Breakdown Leads to Sharp Rally

Today’s advance is the third day up after crude oil triggered a false breakdown from recent consolidation last Friday. Buyers subsequently took charge and have managed to see the price of crude advance into the third day, today. The bullish continuation today has taken crude oil above both the downtrend line and purple 20-Day MA, as well as the uptrend line.

Notice that the 20-Day MA and downtrend line mark a similar price of 79.11 around the breakout area. In other words, a significant pivot level has been busted to the upside. Today bullish price action points to likely upside continuation.

Attempting Four-Week Breakout

Again, today the high is marked as potential resistance by two price levels, the most recent swing high at 80.64 and the long-term downtrend line. It is also a weekly high. The downtrend line starts from the March 2022 peak of 130.61. A decisive rally above 80.64 will trigger a bullish continuation on both the daily and weekly chart, which will be confirmed on a daily close above that price level. Once that happens, in the short term the next higher target would be the 50-Day MA at 82.04.

Watch Long-Term Downtrend Line

The long-term downtrend line has some significance for crude oil. It was initially broken to the upside on April 1, but it subsequently failed to hold as support and a breakdown occurred on April 30. That was followed by a correction to last week’s low. A second bullish breakout of a long-term trendline is bullish. That happened today and will likely be confirmed by a daily close above the line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

Brent continues to hang around the 200-day EMA as well, and if it can recapture the $84.50 level, then I think it’s likely that we will break towards the 50-day EMA. In general, I think this is a market that will be very difficult, but I also recognize that we are in an area where you would expect to see a lot of support. Because of this, I suppose it is probably thought of as a value proposition because quite frankly if we can’t pick it up soon, now that we are in the midst of driving season, that could be a bad sign.

Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that it’s only going to take the wrong headline coming out of the Middle East to send this market straight back up into the stratosphere. So, with that, I think this is just noise, nonsense, et cetera. So, whether or not we can recapture that previous support level is what I would be watching in both grades of crude oil.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.