Natural gas futures are trading higher on Thursday shortly after the regular session opening. The change in the market’s direction over the Christmas holiday is being attributed to a colder shift in the latest forecasts starting around the second week of January, according to Natural Gas Intelligence.
The latest model guidance maintained similar demand expectations overall for the next two weeks but shifted to colder in the 11- to 15-day period, according to Bespoke Weather Services.
The colder shift was “a little surprising given a continued tendency” in the pattern toward a combination of a positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) and a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Bespoke said. “This gives us some pause, as this suggests that either the projected 11- to 15 day cold weakens again as it rolls into the six- to 10-day, or the cold shot is real but just a narrow colder window in the sea of a warmer pattern type.”
“For now, we did adjust the forecaster colder starting on January 5 but did not move as cold as the current model consensus, as we want to see progression forward, or see a more pronounced change in the EPO/NAQ configuration that would be more supportive for a material colder turn.”
NatGasWeather Outlook
According to NatGasWeather for December 26 to January 1, “Strong high pressure will dominate much of the US through the weekend with much warmer than normal conditions where highs will reach the 40s to 70s, warmest over the southern US. The West Coast will be unsettled with rain and snow showers for locally cool conditions. The Northern Plains will be the only truly cold area with highs of 20s and 30s, but over very low population states. Overall, very light versus normal national demand through the weekend, then moderate early next week.”
Daily Forecast
There is not a lot of interest in the December 26 to January 1 forecast. All eyes are on the 11 to 15 day outlook. This is when the cold is expected to arrive.
Today’s reaction is short-covering in response to the change in the forecast. Aggressive counter-trend buyers or speculators will start to come in if the forecast continues to trend toward colder.
The rally could be dampened by position-squaring ahead of the EIA Natural Gas report on Friday. It is expected to show a 145B draw.
Technically, look for an upside bias to develop on a sustained move over $2.260, and for the downside bias to continue on a sustained move under $2.239.
Money saving trends are constantly popping up on social media – but one in particular has been gaining huge amounts of attention.
Created accidentally by a comedian, loud budgeting is breaking down the taboo of speaking about money.
The idea is based on being firmer/more vocal about your financial boundaries in social situations and setting out what you are happy to spend your money on, instead of “Keeping up with the Joneses”.
On TikTok alone, videos published under the hashtag #loudbudgeting have garnered more than 30 million views – and that figure is continuing to climb.
We spoke to Lukas Battle – the 26-year-old who unintentionally created the trend as part of a comedy sketch.
Based in New York, he came up with the term in a skit about the “quiet luxury” hype, which had spread online in 2023 inspired by shows like Succession.
The term was used for humble bragging about your wealth with expensive items that were subtle in their design – for example, Gwyneth Paltrow’s £3,900 moss green wool coat from The Row, which she wore during her ski resort trial…
“I was never a big fan of the quiet luxury trend, so I just kind of switched the words and wrote ‘loud budgeting is in’. I’m tired of spending money and I don’t want to pretend to be rich,” Lukas said.
“That’s how it started and then the TikTok comments were just obsessed with that original idea.”
This was the first time he mentioned it…
Lukas explained that it wasn’t about “being poor” but about not being afraid of sharing your financial limits and “what’s profitable for you personally”.
“It’s not ‘skip a coffee a day and you’ll become a millionaire’.”
While talking money has been seen as rude or taboo, he said it’s something his generation is more comfortable doing.
“I’ve seen more debate around the topic and I think people are really intrigued and attracted by the idea,” he said.
“It’s just focusing your spending and time on things you enjoy and cutting out the things you might feel pressured to spend your money on.”
He has incorporated loud budgeting into his own life, telling his friends “it’s free to go outside” and opting for cheaper dinner alternatives.
“Having the terminology and knowing it’s a trend helps people understand it and there’s no awkward conversation around it,” he said.
The trend has been a big hit with so-called American “finfluencers”, or “financial influencers”, but people in the UK have started practising it as well.
Mia Westrap has taken up loud budgeting by embarking on a no-buy year and sharing her finances with her 11.3k TikTok followers.
Earning roughly £2,100 a month, she spends around £1,200 on essentials, like rent, petrol and car insurance, but limits what else she can purchase.
Clothes, fizzy drinks, beauty treatments, makeup, dinners out and train tickets are just some things on her “red list”.
The 26-year-old PHD student first came across the idea back in 2017, but decided to take up the challenge this year after realising she was living “pay check to pay check”.
She said her “biggest fear” in the beginning was that her friends wouldn’t understand what she was doing, but she found loud budgeting helped.
“I’m still trying my best to just go along with what everyone wants to do but I just won’t spend money while we do it and my friends don’t mind that, we don’t make a big deal out of it,” she said.
So far, she has been able to save £1,700, and she said talking openly about her money has been “really helpful”.
“There’s no way I could have got this far if I wasn’t baring my soul to the internet about the money I have spent. It has been a really motivating factor.”
Financial expert John Webb said loud budgeting has the ability to help many “feel empowered” and create a “more realistic” relationship with money.
“This is helping to normalise having open and honest conversations about finances,” the consumer affair manager at Experien said.
“It can also reduce the anxiety some might have by keeping their financial worries to themselves.”
However, he warned it’s important to be cautious and to take the reality of life into consideration.
“It could cause troubles within friendship groups if they’re not on the same page as you or have different financial goals,” he said.
“This challenge isn’t meant to stop you from having fun, but it is designed to help people become more conscious and intentional when it comes to money, and reduce the stigma around talking about it.”
The 200-Day MA is at the top of the next higher price range at 2.46, along with the 50% retracement. These indicators themselves provide a realistic higher target for the current rally. However, there are several other factors that point to a price range from 2.37 to 2.46 as being significant. This doesn’t mean that higher prices are reached, but they could be. The 2.37 price level is identified twice. It is an initial target derived from measuring the bottom symmetrical triangle that natural gas broke out of on April 26. Also, a rising ABCD pattern with the CD leg extended by 161.8% of the AB leg completes at that price.
Measured Move Targets 2.40
There is also the completion of a measured move at 2.40. The measured move identifies price symmetry with the last large rally that began from the December swing low. During that advance the price of natural gas increased by 51.8%. On a percentage basis the current rally will match at 2.40. Again, this doesn’t mean it will be reached but when there are five indications identifying a similar price area, some attention is warranted.
Weekly Close May Provide a Clue
Since the week is about to end, the closing price relative to the week’s trading range may provide some guidance. In general, the higher natural gas closes above the halfway point of the weekly range, the stronger the close. The halfway point is at 2.24. Also, this week’s low of 2.13 is a key pivot level as it is a third sequential higher weekly low.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Coffee farmers in different parts of the country are all smiles following an upsurge in coffee prices.
Currently, the farm gate price of a kilogramme of Robusta coffee (FAQ or Kase) is Shs125,000, compared to Shs6,500 last year. The price is about the same for Arabica coffee.
The farmers from Rwenzori, Greater Masaka to Mt Elgon are excited by the high prices, which has motivated them to plant more coffee.
As a result, coffee nursery bed operators are having a field day.
Mr Joseph Nkandu, the executive director of the National Union of Coffee Agribusiness and Farm Enterprises (NUCAFE), says there is a rising global demand for coffee.
“More countries have now switched to drinking coffee, including highly populated countries such as China and South Korea. There is increased coffee consumption even in traditional large-producing countries such as Brazil, which consumes 40 percent of its coffee,” he says.
“Right here in Uganda, our consumption of coffee has gone up. This is borne out of mushrooming powder coffee-producing companies such as NUCAFE Coffee, Kibinge Coffee, and several others. I even expect the coffee prices to go much higher,” he adds.
According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), coffee exports in February amounted to 434,582 60-kilo bags, which is worth $82.56 million. The value of the coffee exports was higher than last year, and this, according to UCDA, was due to the prevailing high global coffee prices.
Buganda Kingdom under its Mwanyi Terimba Programme has also contributed to the ongoing coffee planting craze.
Many of the farmers that Daily Monitor spoke to are looking forward to this coffee season as an opportunity for them to buy cars, improve their homes by buying new furniture and other items, and pay tuition for their school-going children while others are planning to buy more land to plant more coffee.
However, the high coffee prices have come with a new wave of crime and insecurity. The chairperson of Mateete Sub-county in Sembabule District, Mr Beka Byayi, says: “My people no longer sleep in their houses these days. They are up and down all night guarding their coffee gardens against thieves. ”
Mr Shafiq Ssenyimba, the Masaka regional coffee extension officer at UCDA, says the biggest complaint he has received from the farmers is coffee theft.
Due to the rising prices, coffee traders also have problems. “Most of us don’t have the amount of money that is now required to stay in the coffee trade business,” says Mr Lawrence Ssekyaya, a coffee trader at Manja Village, in Kisekka Sub-county, Lwengo District.
In the central district of Kassanda, leaders have been tasked to come up with a by-law to curb coffee theft.
Production forecast According to UCDA, world coffee production for 2023–24 is forecast to reach 171.4 million bags, 6.9 million bags higher than the previous year of 164.5 million bags, with higher output in Brazil, Colombia, and Ethiopia expected to more than offset reduced production in Indonesia.
Global exports are expected to increase by 8.4 million bags to 119.92 million bags, mainly due to strong shipments from Brazil.
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, downwardly reviewed inflation forecasts.
Federal Reserve’s speakers will gather all the attention on Friday.
XAU/USD may extend gains in the near term, needs to run above $2,340.
Gold price posted an interesting comeback on Thursday, as buyers continued to defend the $2,300 area. XAU/USD fell throughout the first half of the day as the US Dollar benefited from a poor market mood. The Greenback changed course ahead of Wall Street’s opening following the release of the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 3. The report showed seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped to 231,000, the highest level since August 2023. The figure revived markets optimism as it is a tepid sign of a loosening labor market. As a result, stock markets surged while the US Dollar fell.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced its decision on monetary policy but had no impact beyond that on the British Pound. The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting and hinted at soon-to-come rate cuts, as inflation is forecast to fall below target. Policymakers upwardly revised growth figures while noting they would like to see more evidence price pressures are receding before loosening the monetary policy.
On Friday, the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, while multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will hit the wires.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it stalled its recovery around a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands at around $2,335. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, while technical indicators remain below their midlines without apparent directional strength. Overall, Gold extends its consolidative phase ahead of a relevant directional catalyst.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair met intraday buyers around a bullish 200 SMA but can’t extend gains beyond a mildly bearish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators stand flat within positive levels, suggesting bulls are more willing to jump in.
Support levels: 2,322.90 2,310.40 2,291.20
Resistance levels: 2,340.15 2,356.90 2,367.10
XAU/USD Current price: $2,332.56
The Bank of England kept rates unchanged, downwardly reviewed inflation forecasts.
Federal Reserve’s speakers will gather all the attention on Friday.
XAU/USD may extend gains in the near term, needs to run above $2,340.
Gold price posted an interesting comeback on Thursday, as buyers continued to defend the $2,300 area. XAU/USD fell throughout the first half of the day as the US Dollar benefited from a poor market mood. The Greenback changed course ahead of Wall Street’s opening following the release of the United States (US) Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended May 3. The report showed seasonally adjusted initial claims jumped to 231,000, the highest level since August 2023. The figure revived markets optimism as it is a tepid sign of a loosening labor market. As a result, stock markets surged while the US Dollar fell.
The Bank of England (BoE) announced its decision on monetary policy but had no impact beyond that on the British Pound. The BoE left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the sixth consecutive meeting and hinted at soon-to-come rate cuts, as inflation is forecast to fall below target. Policymakers upwardly revised growth figures while noting they would like to see more evidence price pressures are receding before loosening the monetary policy.
On Friday, the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the May Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, while multiple Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will hit the wires.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it stalled its recovery around a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands at around $2,335. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, while technical indicators remain below their midlines without apparent directional strength. Overall, Gold extends its consolidative phase ahead of a relevant directional catalyst.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is neutral. The pair met intraday buyers around a bullish 200 SMA but can’t extend gains beyond a mildly bearish 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators stand flat within positive levels, suggesting bulls are more willing to jump in.
Bullish Price Action Improves Chance of Hitting 2.37 and Higher
Bullish price action seen today improves the chance that natural gas reaches the next higher target zone. It is anchored around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.465. Given the current trajectory of the trend and the fact that the 200-Day line has not been tested as resistance since late-January, there is a good chance the 200-Day line may be reached. It is the top of a potential resistance zone that starts at 2.37, which is the completion of a rising ABCD pattern where the CD leg of the advance is 161.8% of the AB leg. Also, a minimum target from the bottom symmetrical triangle completes at 2.37 (light blue arrows).
Measured Move Completes at 2.40
A little higher, at 2.40, a measured move completes. That is where the current rally matches the advance from the December 13 low on a percentage basis. The December rise was 51.8% and the current rally matches at 2.40. It would reflect price symmetry between different swings. The December rally was the last advance that was greater than the previous three, which all followed the December rally. It is also close to a match with the rally that began from the August 24 swing low last year. And that rally was just prior to the December advance. Natural gas advanced by 50.2% from that low.
Can the price of natural gas extend beyond the 200-Day MA. Of course it can, but the resistance zone noted above is backed by multiple indications that a potentially significant resistance zone begins at 2.37. The risk of a retracement will be highest upon entering the 2.37 to 2.465 price zone.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold prices remained range-bound in recent weeks after the bullion’s sharp drop last month, triggered by worries of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Today, held its ground as investors awaited U.S. economic data for insights on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A slight increase in the U.S. dollar limited gains.
Recent gold price action
Gold remained mostly flat at $2,312.61 in today’s trading, while U.S. for June delivery settled 0.1% lower at $2,322.3 per ounce.
The dollar rose by 0.1% amid renewed expectations of rate cuts this year, which could make gold less appealing for foreign currency holders.
“Market is likely to wait for a catalyst for additional upside, whereas the downside does appear to be capped by the limited participation from money managers,” a commodity strategist at TD Securities said.
Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins expressed confidence that current monetary policy will slow the economy sufficiently to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
Investors are now awaiting the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment reading on Friday and comments from several Fed officials this week. Also, U.S. consumer price index data will be released on May 15.
Recent weak U.S. jobs data has led money markets to price in two Fed rate cuts this year and around 40 basis points of monetary easing.
Last week, gold prices witnessed the second consecutive weekly decline, settling just above the $2,300 threshold after recent market volatility stemming from the Federal’s midweek policy announcement and the U.S. employment report.
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Bullion’s decline surprised traders who had anticipated a stronger rally amid falling U.S. bond yields, especially after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a likely rate cut despite lingering inflation concerns. His dovish stance lifted market optimism, pushing risk assets at the expense of safe-haven investments.
XAU/USD price outlook
Economic uncertainty, potential Fed easing, and a weakening U.S. dollar should theoretically support precious metals, yet gold’s recent rally and disconnection from fundamentals could mean prices remain stagnant or deflate further.
While the U.S. economic calendar appears relatively quiet in the coming week, this may change with the release of the April inflation data on May 15, potentially sparking market volatility. Any surprises could impact sentiment and lead to sharp price shifts.
Following a weak performance last week, gold hit its lowest level in nearly a month but remained above $2,280.
According to a DailyFX analyst, bulls must defend this support to avoid a decline to the key Fibonacci level of $2,260. Further losses could pull XAU/USD prices toward the 50-day simple moving average at $2,235.
On the upside, a bullish turnaround would face initial resistance at $2,325, followed by $2,355. Clearing this territory could open a path toward $2,375 for XAU/USD, marked by a short-term descending trendline from the record high.
According to recent trading, gold prices have stabilized around $2310 per ounce, failing to break above the $2331 resistance level at the start of the week and resuming a downward trend to around $2308 per ounce at the start of Thursday’s trading, despite renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Recently, gold’s price performance came as investors expected new signals from several Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak this week, seeking clearer insights into the potential timeline for interest rate cuts.
In this regard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Tuesday that due to the cessation of inflation, the US central bank may need to keep borrowing costs unchanged for an extended period, perhaps throughout the year, especially in light of the strength of the housing market.
Now, Financial markets show a 65% chance of a US interest rate cut in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Clearly, the lower interest rates make it more attractive to hold non-yielding bullion. On the other hand, the People’s Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 60,000 troy ounces in April, representing the eighteenth consecutive month of purchases. Meanwhile, the United States of America said that negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza should be able to bridge the gaps between Israel and Hamas, while Israeli forces took control of the main border crossing in Rafah yesterday.
As for the factors influencing the gold market, The DXY US dollar index rose above 105.5 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level in a week, as hawkish remarks from a Fed official lifted the currency. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he expects the central bank to stay put for an extended period until there is clear evidence of inflation easing and did not rule out the possibility of a rate hike if inflation accelerates. Concurrently, the investors are looking ahead to more comments from Fed officials and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index on Friday for further clarity on the path of interest rates. On the external front, the US dollar continued to strengthen against the Japanese yen even as Japanese authorities reiterated their warnings against extreme currency moves.
Another factor influencing the price of gold, the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 4.5%, from an intraday low of 4.41% touched on Tuesday, as traders monitor the Federal Reserve’s interest rate forecasts. The probability of an interest rate cut in September fell to 65% from 70% earlier in the week.
Comments from several Federal Reserve policymakers this week are also on the radar. On Monday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that ending the battle against inflation will likely require hitting demand, and New York Fed President John Williams said that eventually there will be interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, monetary policy is currently in a “very difficult situation.” For his part, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank in Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said on Tuesday that it is likely that the US central bank will keep interest rates where they are “for a long period of time.”
Meanwhile, Tuesday’s auction of $58 billion of 3-year Treasuries received good bids. Also, the Treasury will sell ten- and thirty-year bonds this week.
Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:
Global central bank activity also played a major role in supporting gold prices, with a net increase in gold purchases recorded during March. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks have added 15 tons of gold to their reserves, while maintaining a steady pattern of purchases. This continued demand from central banks, which are among the largest buyers of gold globally, continues to support the market.
Overall, the combination of softer economic indicators in the United States of America, the continued economic expansion in China, and continued demand from the central bank indicates a potential bull market for gold, as investors and financial institutions reset their strategies in response to global economic trends. Therefore, we still prefer to buy gold from every falling level without risk, and the closest buying levels are currently $2280 and $2235 per ounce, respectively.
Despite a bullish US Dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve remarks, Silver (XAG/USD) opened strong at around $27.66, peaking at $27.71. However, the potential for a decline in silver prices persists, influenced by risk-off market sentiment and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which typically bolster traditional safe-haven assets like silver. Conversely, the robust US dollar, reinforced by the Federal Reserve’s stance, constrained further gains in silver prices.
Stronger US Dollar and Lower Consumer Sentiment on Silver Prices
The strengthening US dollar, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates, is applying downward pressure on silver prices. Following remarks from Federal Reserve officials like Boston’s Susan Collins, who noted the challenge of reducing inflation to the 2% target, and similar views from New York’s John Williams and Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari, investor confidence in a near-term rate cut has waned, with the likelihood of a September rate reduction now at just 55%.
The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Market reached below the $77 level, but now finds enough buyers to turn things around and perhaps form some type of hammer. We will have to wait and see how the day closes, but I think at this point in time, we are looking at a situation where buyers are licking their chops with the potential opportunity in this market.
That being said, if we were to rally from here and take out the 200 day EMA to the upside, a lot of traders would be very interested in getting involved in momentum trading. Alternatively, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, that means we would probably more likely than not test the $75 level for support. This is an area that I think will be very cautious at this point, and therefore it is likely that we will see a huge fight in this region is we were to reach it.
Brent looks very much the same as we initially fell rather significantly during the day, but we have seen a fairly large pushback. With this being the case, the 200-day EMA is near the $83.50 level, and I think a major signal if and when we break above there. All things being equal, we are in the middle of a cluster in both grades of crude oil and there should be plenty of support.
Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that geopolitical issues continue to be a major issue.
And with that being the case, all it’s going to take is one errant headline coming out of the Middle East, and you will see oil markets rally a dollar almost instantly.
In general, this is a market that is very noisy, but it does look like it’s in the midst of forming some type of basing pattern after what has been a significant pullback.
