The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Market reached below the $77 level, but now finds enough buyers to turn things around and perhaps form some type of hammer. We will have to wait and see how the day closes, but I think at this point in time, we are looking at a situation where buyers are licking their chops with the potential opportunity in this market.

That being said, if we were to rally from here and take out the 200 day EMA to the upside, a lot of traders would be very interested in getting involved in momentum trading. Alternatively, if we were to break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, that means we would probably more likely than not test the $75 level for support. This is an area that I think will be very cautious at this point, and therefore it is likely that we will see a huge fight in this region is we were to reach it.

• 

Brent looks very much the same as we initially fell rather significantly during the day, but we have seen a fairly large pushback. With this being the case, the 200-day EMA is near the $83.50 level, and I think a major signal if and when we break above there. All things being equal, we are in the middle of a cluster in both grades of crude oil and there should be plenty of support.

• Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that geopolitical issues continue to be a major issue.
• And with that being the case, all it’s going to take is one errant headline coming out of the Middle East, and you will see oil markets rally a dollar almost instantly.
• In general, this is a market that is very noisy, but it does look like it’s in the midst of forming some type of basing pattern after what has been a significant pullback.

Ready to trade the WTI/USD exchange rate? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

• Gold was rather choppy during the early hours on Wednesday, but we do still have a significant amount of support below that comes into the picture to offer a bit of a potential buying opportunity.
• After all, gold has a lot of things working for it right now as the geopolitical situation continues to be an absolute mess.

Furthermore, we’ve been in an uptrend for a while, so I don’t really see an argument for any type of shorting of the market, even if we were to get a bit of profit taking. We are focusing mainly on the $2,300 level and perhaps even just a little bit below there.

With the 50 day EMA approaching this area, it should only serve to solidify it as important support. If we can break above the $2,350 level, then it opens up a move back to the highs that were just above the $2,400 region. In general, this looks like a bullish flag that is getting ready to kick off and continue the overall uptrend. At this point, it would probably only take some type of random headline out there to really get the market spooked and have gold rallying. Even if we were to break down below here, I think there’s even more support near the $2,200 level. And I do think that gold ends up being one of your better trades this year, albeit probably very noisy.

• 

Keep in mind that the gold markets can be extraordinarily volatile, and therefore you need to be conscious of your position sizing as there are a lot of different things moving around at the moment. However, I also believe that the gold market is strong for a reason and should continue to be so. Given enough time, it’s very likely that gold not only reaches the high levels that we have seen previously but break above there and go looking into the $2500 level over the longer term. Given enough time, I believe that gold will turn things around in order to continue the previous bullish run.

Ready to trade our Gold price forecast? We’ve made a list of the best Gold trading platforms worth trading with. 

Oil prices increased slightly in Asian markets on Thursday after mixed trade data from China and as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remained high. The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was a focal point, particularly with the U.S. intensifying efforts to mediate.

This context saw Brent oil futures rise to $83.92 and West Texas Intermediate to $79.41 per barrel. However, a decline in China’s oil imports in April, despite stronger overall imports, suggested a potential cooling in the world’s largest crude importer’s demand.

Crude oil prices rose by 0.5 per cent to $78.48 on Monday amid volatility tied to hopes for an end to the Gaza conflict.

Neha Qureshi Mumbai

XAU/USD Current price: $2,316.79

• The US Dollar shed early gains despite a souring market mood.
• Federal Reserve’s officials mixed comments doing little for speculative interest.
• XAU/USD remains technically neutral, with sellers pushing for fresh weekly lows.

Gold price flirts with $2,320 in the American session, trimming early losses that sent XAU/USD to a weekly low at $2,303.60. The US Dollar lost momentum after Wall Street’s opening despite the poor performance of American indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts some modest gains, although the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade in the red.

Financial markets continue to struggle for direction in a week marked by the absence of relevant macroeconomic data. Speculative interest tries to take clues from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ words, but so far, none provide fresh clues that could spur some directional price action. Of course, there are always some officials confident enough to deliver a hawkish message, while others stand at the other end of the spectrum.

But in the end, none of them clearly responds to when and by how much the Fed will trim interest rates. At least market players understood it wouldn’t be anytime soon, regardless of the Fed’s dot plot signalling three potential rate cuts through 2024 at the beginning of the year.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the upward potential remains well-limited. The Momentum indicator turned south below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around its midline, reflecting the absence of buying interest. The same chart shows sellers continue to add on approaches to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains flat at around $2,340, further limiting advances.

The near-term picture is neutral. XAU/USD remains trapped between a mildly bullish 200 SMA and a descendant 100 SMA while stuck to a flat 20 SMA. Finally, technical indicators seesaw around their midlines without clear directional strength. Bears may have better chances on a clear break below the $2,300 mark, although a bearish run will need to wait until the Gold breaks below the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned rally at $2,260.45.

Support levels: 2,310.40 2,291.20 2,276.50

Resistance levels: 2,326.50 2,340.15 2,356.90 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,316.79

• The US Dollar shed early gains despite a souring market mood.
• Federal Reserve’s officials mixed comments doing little for speculative interest.
• XAU/USD remains technically neutral, with sellers pushing for fresh weekly lows.

Gold price flirts with $2,320 in the American session, trimming early losses that sent XAU/USD to a weekly low at $2,303.60. The US Dollar lost momentum after Wall Street’s opening despite the poor performance of American indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts some modest gains, although the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade in the red.

Financial markets continue to struggle for direction in a week marked by the absence of relevant macroeconomic data. Speculative interest tries to take clues from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ words, but so far, none provide fresh clues that could spur some directional price action. Of course, there are always some officials confident enough to deliver a hawkish message, while others stand at the other end of the spectrum.

But in the end, none of them clearly responds to when and by how much the Fed will trim interest rates. At least market players understood it wouldn’t be anytime soon, regardless of the Fed’s dot plot signalling three potential rate cuts through 2024 at the beginning of the year.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the upward potential remains well-limited. The Momentum indicator turned south below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around its midline, reflecting the absence of buying interest. The same chart shows sellers continue to add on approaches to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains flat at around $2,340, further limiting advances.

The near-term picture is neutral. XAU/USD remains trapped between a mildly bullish 200 SMA and a descendant 100 SMA while stuck to a flat 20 SMA. Finally, technical indicators seesaw around their midlines without clear directional strength. Bears may have better chances on a clear break below the $2,300 mark, although a bearish run will need to wait until the Gold breaks below the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned rally at $2,260.45.

Support levels: 2,310.40 2,291.20 2,276.50

Resistance levels: 2,326.50 2,340.15 2,356.90 

XAU/USD Current price: $2,316.79

• The US Dollar shed early gains despite a souring market mood.
• Federal Reserve’s officials mixed comments doing little for speculative interest.
• XAU/USD remains technically neutral, with sellers pushing for fresh weekly lows.

Gold price flirts with $2,320 in the American session, trimming early losses that sent XAU/USD to a weekly low at $2,303.60. The US Dollar lost momentum after Wall Street’s opening despite the poor performance of American indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts some modest gains, although the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade in the red.

Financial markets continue to struggle for direction in a week marked by the absence of relevant macroeconomic data. Speculative interest tries to take clues from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ words, but so far, none provide fresh clues that could spur some directional price action. Of course, there are always some officials confident enough to deliver a hawkish message, while others stand at the other end of the spectrum.

But in the end, none of them clearly responds to when and by how much the Fed will trim interest rates. At least market players understood it wouldn’t be anytime soon, regardless of the Fed’s dot plot signalling three potential rate cuts through 2024 at the beginning of the year.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the upward potential remains well-limited. The Momentum indicator turned south below its 100 level, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around its midline, reflecting the absence of buying interest. The same chart shows sellers continue to add on approaches to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50. At the same time, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains flat at around $2,340, further limiting advances.

The near-term picture is neutral. XAU/USD remains trapped between a mildly bullish 200 SMA and a descendant 100 SMA while stuck to a flat 20 SMA. Finally, technical indicators seesaw around their midlines without clear directional strength. Bears may have better chances on a clear break below the $2,300 mark, although a bearish run will need to wait until the Gold breaks below the 38.2% retracement of the aforementioned rally at $2,260.45.

Support levels: 2,310.40 2,291.20 2,276.50

Resistance levels: 2,326.50 2,340.15 2,356.90 

U.S. Treasury Yields Inch Higher as Rate Outlook Evaluated

U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight increase on Wednesday as investors deliberated over the latest statements from Federal Reserve officials, seeking insights into the future path of interest rates. At 10:08 GMT, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by over 1 basis point to 4.479%, while the 2-year Treasury yield edged up by just over 1 basis point to 4.839%. Investors closely scrutinized remarks from Fed officials regarding the timing and frequency of potential rate cuts, with recent comments aligning with the Fed’s current stance to maintain steady rates until clearer inflation signals emerge.

Fed Officials Signal Caution Amid Rate Cut Speculation

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin indicated a cautious approach towards rate adjustments, emphasizing the need for greater confidence in inflation returning to the 2% target before considering rate cuts. Kashkari also acknowledged the possibility of rate hikes, albeit without ruling out rate cuts entirely. Fed Chair Jerome Powell previously stated the Fed’s reluctance to raise rates at the upcoming meeting, adding to market uncertainty.

Market Speculation on Rate Cuts Amid Economic Data Awaited

Investors anticipate further insights into monetary policy as additional comments from Fed officials are anticipated throughout the week. Concurrently, market attention is directed towards key economic indicators such as weekly initial jobless claims and consumer sentiment data, which could influence future rate decisions.

Stronger Dollar Dampens Silver Appeal

The U.S. dollar strengthened, reversing some losses attributed to renewed expectations of Fed rate cuts, thereby diminishing the appeal of silver for foreign currency holders. The uncertainty surrounding the timing and likelihood of rate cuts contributes to market volatility, influencing silver’s attractiveness as an investment.

Geopolitical Tensions Provide Limited Support

While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine typically bolster silver’s safe-haven status, the impact was mitigated by the prevailing market focus on interest rate dynamics and the dollar’s strength. Political developments, including discussions regarding potential NATO intervention in the UK and escalating conflicts in Gaza, add to market uncertainties.

Short-Term Forecast

Silver prices remained subdued amidst rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar, counteracting safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical tensions. Market participants await further clarity on the Fed’s rate outlook and key economic data releases to gauge future silver price movements.

Goldman Sachs has been unabashedly bullish copper this year and they’ve been rewarded by a strong copper rally so far in 2024.

They’re now boosting their year-end forecast for LME copper to $12,000/ton, a 21% rise from current prices and they continue to see another 50% gain (on average) in 2025. Those forecasts would roughly correspond to $5.40/lb this year and $6.75 next year.

Here’s what they wrote:

The copper market’s path into scarcity has gathered momentum so far this year, with the concentrate segment – which sits just before the metal market-moving into extreme tightness. Lacking any near term mine supply solution, the only way to maintain concentrate market function will be via demand rationing. Whilst the metal market has yet to reflect that upstream tightness, we think the increasing bind on refined supply set against healthy end demand leads to an inevitable deficit path ahead. Short run midstream responses have emerged to the higher LME price signal – particularly in scrap and semis – but these are temporary responses which will abate as economics rebalance and respective inventories exhaust. Our latest supply demand estimates point a 454kt metal deficit for this year (vs 428kt deficit previously) and 467kt metal deficit for 2025 (vs. 413kt deficit previously). With the seasonal surplus phase now at an end, we expect deficit accumulation to build momentum into mid-year and particularly H2 this year. Given visible stocks stand at just over 600kt, the potential still persists for that metal tightening path in H2 this year to take the market to a stockout episode by Q4. Whilst we see a near term phase of price consolidation as most likely, given the physical market digests short term responses to the higher LME environment, this will be relatively brief. Given the larger deficits, we upgrade our year-end target on copper to $12,000/t from $10,000/t, whilst raising our full year forecast average price to $9,800/t (vs. $9,200 previously) and retain our average $15,000/t in 2025.

Oil prices decreased in early Asian trading on Wednesday due to growing U.S. crude and fuel inventories and weaker demand, which signal potential challenges in the oil market.

The decline was further influenced by cautious supply expectations before an OPEC+ policy meeting. Brent crude fell to $82.66 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped to $ 77.95 a barrel.

Inside Day Sets Up

An inside day provides a potential bull trend continuation setup. A decisive advance above today’s high would trigger the breakout. Then, further signs of strength should be seen to reflect increasing demand, including a daily close above today’s high. Once yesterday’s high is exceeded, the path is clear to test higher potential resistance areas. As noted in prior articles, the key higher price area to watch is around the 200-Day MA, now at 2.47. It is also marked by the 50% retracement at 2.46. In addition, a measured move completes at 2.40.

Measured Move Targets 2.40

The measured move is looking for a match with the mid-December rally on a percentage basis. That rally ended at a high of 3.39 to complete a 51.8% advance. A similar size move for the current rally completes at 2.40. It deserves attention especially since the target is close to the 200-Day line. When two or more indicators identify a similar price zone, it is the market’s way of identifying an area of interest. Since there is some distance to be traveled to approach the 200-Day line, it is anticipated to act as resistance on the first approach.

Watch Support on Deeper Pullback

Alternatively, if a deeper pullback happens before a bullish continuation, a drop below today’s low of 2.14 will provide the next sign of weakening. Yesterday’s low of 2.13 may act as near-term support, but if not the prior recent trend high at 2.09 is then a target. During uptrend, it is common for resistance around a prior trend high to act as support during pullbacks.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.