The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.
Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.
The country reported that Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.
Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.
Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.
If the 2.02 support zone fails to hold, a drop below 2.00 will have the price of natural gas heading towards the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.92. That price is given further significance as it confirmed by the gap up support level from late-April at 1.91.
Natural gas fell hard on Wednesday as it was down by as much as 0.16 cents or 7.5% for the day. It has established a wide price range for the day with a full body red candle. And it is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s trading range.
Current Support May Lead to a Bounce
Nonetheless, it is possible that the 2.00 price area holds as support and attracts buyers. Today’s sharp selloff has occurred further into the downtrend and therefore, nearer to the end of the decline than it had been previously. A sharp drop near the end of a trend can sometimes signal capitulation as holders can longer take the pain of loss and finally sell. That creates a vacuum that allows for a potential sharp bounce.
Breakout Above Trendline Give First Sign of Strength
Unfortunately, on a daily chart there is no sign of strength until natural gas rallies above today’s high of 2.21. Of course, that may change in the coming days as alternative price levels may become apparent. Be that as it may, more aggressive investors and traders may key off intraday price patterns as they watch for signs of a bullish reversal from a key support zone. As noted previously, a rally above the internal downtrend line will provide a sign of strength, but trendlines are typically not too reliable on their own. Breaks through trendlines are more useful when confirmed by additional signs of strength.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.
Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.
The country reported that Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.
Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.
Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.
Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.50 2,422.65
Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,483.70 2,495.00
XAU/USD Current price: $2,456.23
The US Dollar corrects higher after reaching extreme oversold conditions.
Better-than-anticipated United States data helped the Greenback in the near term.
XAU/USD corrects after reaching record highs, the overall bullish stance persists.
Spot Gold rallied to an all-time high of $2,483.60 on Wednesday as market players kept dampening the US Dollar on the back of mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the September meeting. Extreme technical conditions helped the USD recover some ground after Wall Street’s opening, also backed by encouraging United States (US) macroeconomic data.
The country reported that Building Permits rose 3.4% in June, while Housing Starts in the same period were up 3%. Furthermore, Industrial Production increased 0.6% in June, beating expectations, while Capacity Utilization in the same month rose to 78.8% against the 78.6% anticipated.
Finally, it is worth adding that several Fed officials hit the wires, with their words tilting to the dovish side of the spectrum, seen by market players as an anticipation of the September cut. The central bank will meet by the end of July, and speculative interest hopes policymakers will offer some clearer clues about the near future of monetary policy. It is also worth remembering that Chairman Jerome Powell has repeated multiple times that decisions will be made meeting by meeting and depend entirely on macroeconomic developments.
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on monetary policy. President Christine Lagarde and co. are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this time after trimming them by 25 basis points (bps) in the previous meeting.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The XAU/USD pair is trading in negative territory on a daily basis, hovering around $2,455. The slide, however, seems corrective given the overbought conditions technical indicators have reached in the daily chart. In the same time frame, the bright metal holds far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintaining its upward slope at around $2,365 while above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.
Technical readings in the 4-hour chart suggest that XAU/USD corrective slide may continue. The current candle is quite long, usually a sign of increased selling interest, while technical indicators retreat almost vertically from extreme overbought readings. Nevertheless, the pair keeps developing far above bullish moving averages, with the 20 SMA currently at around $2,435.50. Buyers could return around the latter if the level is reached, as the overall stance is still bullish.
Gold price sits at a new record high above $2,480 early Wednesday.
The US Dollar licks wounds with Treasury bond yields as a September Fed rate cut is a done deal.
India Gold demand stands resilient, despite elevated prices – ANZ.
The daily RSI prods 50 level, suggesting more upside for Gold price.
Gold price is consolidating the three-day uptrend to a new record high above $2,480 in Asian trades on Wednesday, as buyers take a breather before resuming the winning momentum.
Gold price looks to $2,500 and beyond
With a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September inevitable, a fresh lifetime high for the non-interest-bearing Gold price comes as a little surprise. Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.
Data on Tuesday showed that US Retail Sales stagnated in the month to June, down from a 0.3% growth in May. The Retail Sales Control Group for June came in at 0.9% versus the previous increase of 0.4%. The readings showed US economic resilience however, that failed to alter market bets for a Fed cut in September.
Therefore, the US Dollar downtrend resumed, following a temporary bounce, helping Gold price attain fresh levels on record above $2,450. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s comments added to the recent dovishness from several Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, and accentuated the Gold price bullish momentum.
Gold traders also cheered robust physical demand for Gold in India even though prices remain elevated. Analysts at the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group said in their research note that “higher prices are still dampening demand, but sensitivity has diminished over the past year. Despite a rise in gold’s price of more than 10 percent in 2023, consumer demand stayed buoyant at 760 tons, a marginal decline of only 2 percent y/y. The demand was also in line with the long-term (2013–22) average of 755 tons.”
“Higher capital gains and income growth have helped gold demand weather elevated prices,” ANZ analysts added.
Looking ahead, upside risks remain intact for Gold price, as dovish sentiment around the Fed’s interest rate outlook will continue to boost the appeal of the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, any stimulus rollout by China to stimulate its economic growth could also act as a tailwind for Gold price.
Gold traders will closely scrutinize the mid-tier US industrial and housing data, as well as, the speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller for fresh trading directives.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tests the overbought threshold while the previous week’s Bull Cross remains in play.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 50-day SMA on Friday, portraying the bullish crossover.
Gold buyers look to capture the $2,500 level on a retest of the record highs at $2,482. The next contention level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.
However, any pullback in Gold price could challenge the previous lifetime high at $2,450, below the $2,400 figure will be put to the test again.
The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Waller speech
Christopher J. Waller is a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system. He took office on December 18, 2020, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2030. Dr. Waller had served as executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis prior to his Fed board appointment. Read more.
Gold price sits at a new record high above $2,480 early Wednesday.
The US Dollar licks wounds with Treasury bond yields as a September Fed rate cut is a done deal.
India Gold demand stands resilient, despite elevated prices – ANZ.
The daily RSI prods 50 level, suggesting more upside for Gold price.
Gold price is consolidating the three-day uptrend to a new record high above $2,480 in Asian trades on Wednesday, as buyers take a breather before resuming the winning momentum.
Gold price looks to $2,500 and beyond
With a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate cut in September inevitable, a fresh lifetime high for the non-interest-bearing Gold price comes as a little surprise. Markets are fully pricing in the September Fed rate cut while odds of another cut in December stand at above 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWAtch Tool.
Data on Tuesday showed that US Retail Sales stagnated in the month to June, down from a 0.3% growth in May. The Retail Sales Control Group for June came in at 0.9% versus the previous increase of 0.4%. The readings showed US economic resilience however, that failed to alter market bets for a Fed cut in September.
Therefore, the US Dollar downtrend resumed, following a temporary bounce, helping Gold price attain fresh levels on record above $2,450. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s comments added to the recent dovishness from several Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell, and accentuated the Gold price bullish momentum.
Gold traders also cheered robust physical demand for Gold in India even though prices remain elevated. Analysts at the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) Banking Group said in their research note that “higher prices are still dampening demand, but sensitivity has diminished over the past year. Despite a rise in gold’s price of more than 10 percent in 2023, consumer demand stayed buoyant at 760 tons, a marginal decline of only 2 percent y/y. The demand was also in line with the long-term (2013–22) average of 755 tons.”
“Higher capital gains and income growth have helped gold demand weather elevated prices,” ANZ analysts added.
Looking ahead, upside risks remain intact for Gold price, as dovish sentiment around the Fed’s interest rate outlook will continue to boost the appeal of the non-yielding Gold price. Meanwhile, any stimulus rollout by China to stimulate its economic growth could also act as a tailwind for Gold price.
Gold traders will closely scrutinize the mid-tier US industrial and housing data, as well as, the speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller for fresh trading directives.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The path of least resistance for Gold price remains to the upside, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) tests the overbought threshold while the previous week’s Bull Cross remains in play.
The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed above the 50-day SMA on Friday, portraying the bullish crossover.
Gold buyers look to capture the $2,500 level on a retest of the record highs at $2,482. The next contention level is seen at the $2,550 psychological mark.
However, any pullback in Gold price could challenge the previous lifetime high at $2,450, below the $2,400 figure will be put to the test again.
The next relevant support levels are seen at the July 11 low of $2,371 and the $2,350 psychological levels.
Economic Indicator
Fed’s Waller speech
Christopher J. Waller is a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve system. He took office on December 18, 2020, to fill an unexpired term ending January 31, 2030. Dr. Waller had served as executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis prior to his Fed board appointment. Read more.
Global “Coffee Mugs Market”Insight Survey 2023 By Type, Application, Region, Global Market Analysis, Market Size, Share, Growth, Trends, And Forecast 2023 To 2029. The Report published by Industry Research Biz attempts to offer a high-quality and accurate analysis of the market, keeping in view the current market scenario. The report compromises in-depth analysis covering key regional trends, market dynamics, and provides country-level market size of the global Coffee Mugs Market.
This sentiment continues to provide support for precious metals like silver, which do not offer yields, making them more attractive when yields on other investments are low.
Economic Indicators and Silver’s Near-Term Outlook
Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. Industrial Production data, seeking further direction. The anticipation of a dovish shift by the Fed is largely priced into the market, keeping bond yields near multi-month lows and underpinning silver prices.
Therefore, any further decline in silver might still attract buyers, viewing dips as favorable opportunities.
Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment
Recent statements from Fed officials have reinforced the likelihood of rate cuts, influencing investment flows towards traditionally non-yielding assets like silver.
Moreover, upbeat U.S. Retail Sales data has shown consumer resilience, suggesting robust economic activity which could temper aggressive bullish bets on silver.
Despite this, the prevailing economic sentiment and monetary policy landscape suggest that silver prices may continue to find substantial support, limiting significant downside risks.
Market participants increased bets on a Federal Reserve’s September rate cut.
Encouraging United States macroeconomic data backed the generalized optimism.
XAU/USD bullish momentum supports another leg north in the upcoming sessions.
Gold reached fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, trading in the $2,460 price zone mid-American afternoon. The bright metal rallied despite a firmer US Dollar, the latter benefiting from better-than-anticipated United States (US) Retail Sales. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales remained unchanged in June as expected, although the core reading, Retail Sales Control Group, improved to 0.9% from 0.4% in May.
Still, XAU/USD rally could be explained by mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut as soon as September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut stand at 93.3%, while the chance of a 50 bps cut stands at 6.7%. Investors rushed into betting on upcoming lower interest rates after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington DC on Monday.
Among other things, Powell said that the economy performed remarkably well in the last couple of years, while easing inflation in the second quarter builded up confidence. Nevertheless he also noted that upcoming decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting, based on evolving data and the outlook.
Wall Street rallied to fresh record highs on Monday, only to surpass them in the current session. Optimism reigns among investors and the US Dollar trades oddly mixed across the FX board, partially benefiting from upbeat macroeconomic data, yet with the upside limited amid the risk-on mood.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The bright metal has room to extend its gains according to technical readings in the daily chart. XAU/USD holds far above all its moving averages, which offer sharp upward slopes. At the same time, technical indicators accelerated north, approaching overbought territory without signs of giving up.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is overbought, yet a corrective decline remains out of the picture. A firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) leads the way north, providing dynamic support at around $2,420. The 100 and 200 SMA also head higher below the shorter one, in line with increased buying interest. Finally, the Momentum indicator maintains its bullish slope at extreme levels, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned flat at around 76, suggesting a pause before the next directional movement.
The slope of the retracement accelerated following the June 26 high. Since then, price action has been contained below the lower downtrend line and the line has since been confirmed since by an additional touch with price. Therefore, the internal downtrend line can be used as a guide for initial trend resistance. The decline can be anticipated to continue until there is at least an advance above the trendline. So far, that has not happened, indicating that the downtrend remains in force.
Drop Below 2.15 is Bearish
A drop below yesterday’s low of 2.15 signals the likely continuation of the bear trend. The next lower support zone is identified around 2.02 to 2.00. Notice that an earlier bull breakout was confirmed on a rally above 2.00 on April 29. That was the top of a bottom symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. Consequently, a full round trip will be completed at 2.00.
Since natural gas has gotten this close and given the continuing bearish signs, it seems very possible that 2.00 may be tested as support before the correction is complete. Nonetheless, this doesn’t mean it will be achieved. The market for natural gas will provide additional clues as it continues to evolve.
Interim Lower Target of 2.17
Prior to the 2.00 price target there is an interim target of 2.17. It is interim because the price level was resistance during a minor swing high on way up from the triangle bottom. As shown on the chart the 2.02 price level is indicated by a falling ABCD pattern. This pattern identifies symmetry between the two downswings. One labeled AB and the other CD.
An initial target from the pattern looks for a similar move in price for each leg of the pattern. Subsequently, additional targets can be found by incorporating a harmonic ratio to extend the completion of the CD target. A 127.2% ratio generated a target of 2.20, which was exceeded yesterday. Once that target failed to stop the decline, a second extended target was added. The extended target reaches its completion at 2.02.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Market participants increased bets on a Federal Reserve’s September rate cut.
Encouraging United States macroeconomic data backed the generalized optimism.
XAU/USD bullish momentum supports another leg north in the upcoming sessions.
Gold reached fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, trading in the $2,460 price zone mid-American afternoon. The bright metal rallied despite a firmer US Dollar, the latter benefiting from better-than-anticipated United States (US) Retail Sales. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales remained unchanged in June as expected, although the core reading, Retail Sales Control Group, improved to 0.9% from 0.4% in May.
Still, XAU/USD rally could be explained by mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut as soon as September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut stand at 93.3%, while the chance of a 50 bps cut stands at 6.7%. Investors rushed into betting on upcoming lower interest rates after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington DC on Monday.
Among other things, Powell said that the economy performed remarkably well in the last couple of years, while easing inflation in the second quarter builded up confidence. Nevertheless he also noted that upcoming decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting, based on evolving data and the outlook.
Wall Street rallied to fresh record highs on Monday, only to surpass them in the current session. Optimism reigns among investors and the US Dollar trades oddly mixed across the FX board, partially benefiting from upbeat macroeconomic data, yet with the upside limited amid the risk-on mood.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The bright metal has room to extend its gains according to technical readings in the daily chart. XAU/USD holds far above all its moving averages, which offer sharp upward slopes. At the same time, technical indicators accelerated north, approaching overbought territory without signs of giving up.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is overbought, yet a corrective decline remains out of the picture. A firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) leads the way north, providing dynamic support at around $2,420. The 100 and 200 SMA also head higher below the shorter one, in line with increased buying interest. Finally, the Momentum indicator maintains its bullish slope at extreme levels, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned flat at around 76, suggesting a pause before the next directional movement.
Support levels: 2,448.90 2,435.10 2,422.65
Resistance levels: 2,465.00 2,480.00 2,493.00
XAU/USD Current price: $2,459.10
Market participants increased bets on a Federal Reserve’s September rate cut.
Encouraging United States macroeconomic data backed the generalized optimism.
XAU/USD bullish momentum supports another leg north in the upcoming sessions.
Gold reached fresh all-time highs on Tuesday, trading in the $2,460 price zone mid-American afternoon. The bright metal rallied despite a firmer US Dollar, the latter benefiting from better-than-anticipated United States (US) Retail Sales. The US Census Bureau reported that Retail Sales remained unchanged in June as expected, although the core reading, Retail Sales Control Group, improved to 0.9% from 0.4% in May.
Still, XAU/USD rally could be explained by mounting speculation the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest rate cut as soon as September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut stand at 93.3%, while the chance of a 50 bps cut stands at 6.7%. Investors rushed into betting on upcoming lower interest rates after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of Washington DC on Monday.
Among other things, Powell said that the economy performed remarkably well in the last couple of years, while easing inflation in the second quarter builded up confidence. Nevertheless he also noted that upcoming decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting, based on evolving data and the outlook.
Wall Street rallied to fresh record highs on Monday, only to surpass them in the current session. Optimism reigns among investors and the US Dollar trades oddly mixed across the FX board, partially benefiting from upbeat macroeconomic data, yet with the upside limited amid the risk-on mood.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
The bright metal has room to extend its gains according to technical readings in the daily chart. XAU/USD holds far above all its moving averages, which offer sharp upward slopes. At the same time, technical indicators accelerated north, approaching overbought territory without signs of giving up.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is overbought, yet a corrective decline remains out of the picture. A firmly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) leads the way north, providing dynamic support at around $2,420. The 100 and 200 SMA also head higher below the shorter one, in line with increased buying interest. Finally, the Momentum indicator maintains its bullish slope at extreme levels, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned flat at around 76, suggesting a pause before the next directional movement.
The $2 level underneath should be a major support level, so we’ll see how that plays out. As for myself, I still have some ETF positions left. Doesn’t really matter. It’s something that I will hang on to until fall. So the day to day fluctuations can be sat through. It’s not a huge part of your portfolio, or at least it shouldn’t be, although any time this happens in natural gas, my email or email box gets full of people begging me to turn the market around.
Somehow, because of this, retail traders really have no business trading natural gas. Unless of course, you are apprised of what’s going on in the northeast in the United States as far as weather is concerned. Transmission through natural gas pipelines in the United States, specifically east of the Mississippi River, the weather in the Gulf of Mexico, and of course, production in places like Henry, Louisiana, which is what this contract is based on, is the Henry Hub contract. Because of this, you can play the cyclicality, but you don’t want to get married to your position. You don’t want a huge position on.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
