As we step into the second half of 2024, analysts’ forecast for has remained increasingly optimistic, with many predicting that gold prices could reach new record-highs by mid-2025, driven by a confluence of factors including central bank purchases, investor demand, and macroeconomic conditions. 

Insights from Citi, TD Securities, and Bank of America show that key drivers behind the bullish outlook for gold prices continue to be strong physical demand, central bank activities and recent investment trends. 

Strong physical demand 

Citi analysts recently noted a slight softening in physical gold demand in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. The investment bank and financial services company, however, pointed out that the softening comes from a very strong base. 

It also emphasized that underlying gold consumption growth remains strong, which could push spot prices towards a record average range of $2,400-$2,600 per ounce in the latter half of the year, as financial investors play catch-up with the physical market. 

Another significant trend that will impact XAU/USD is the decrease in non-monetary gold imports into China, which fell to 137 tons per month in the second quarter from 189 tons per month in the first quarter. 

Despite this decrease, Citi projected a record 1,750 tons of onshore bullion imports for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase and an eightfold rise from 2020 levels. If accurate, this would mean Chinese retail gold imports would represent 47% of global gold mine output in 2024, up from an average of 34% in 2021-2023 and 36% in 2017-2019.

Moreover, official sector demand remains strong. Central bank gold purchases have stabilized at a record 28-30% of gold mine production since 2022, with the potential to rise to 35% in a bullish scenario.

Citi forecasted a record 1,100 tons of central bank gold buying in 2024, with the possibility of exceeding 1,250 tons if bullish conditions prevail. Inflows into gold ETFs are also expected to improve as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle.

Central bank activities 

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) did not purchase gold for a second consecutive month in June 2024, leading to a brief decline in gold prices. However, the Reserve Bank of India, the National Bank of Poland, and the Czech National Bank continued their gold purchases. The buying coming from the central banks of the latter nations helped in stabilizing the market. 

The pause in China’s central bank purchases followed a record high in spot gold prices in May, driven by 18 months of consistent buying from the PBoC and other central banks.

China held 72.80 million troy ounces of gold at the end of June 2024, unchanged from May, while the value of its gold reserves slightly decreased. TD Securities suggested that while the PBoC may be waiting for a price pullback before resuming purchases, other central banks are likely to continue buying, maintaining the overall bullish sentiment in the market. 

The World Gold Council’s survey supported this view, indicating that 29% of central banks intend to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest level since the survey began in 2018.

Gold prices: Future projections and outlook 

Bank of America (BofA) analysts predicted that gold prices could surge to $3,000 per ounce within the next 12-18 months. However, they noted that current market flows do not yet support this price point. 

The analysts stressed the need for increased non-commercial demand as they believe a Federal Reserve rate cut could trigger significant inflows into physically backed gold ETFs and higher trading volumes.

Central bank purchases also play a crucial role in BofA’s bullish outlook. The analysts argued that ongoing central bank buying, driven by efforts to reduce the share of USD in foreign exchange portfolios, will support gold prices. Gold’s status as a long-term value store, hedge against inflation, and portfolio diversifier underpin this trend.

BofA’s model considered various factors, including mine output, recycled gold, and jewelry demand. Analysts estimated that non-commercial purchases have supported an average price of $2,200 per ounce year-to-date. 

A substantial increase in investment demand could push prices towards the $3,000 mark. The World Gold Council’s survey aligned with this view, which is also in line with central banks’ intentions to increase their gold reserves which could further drive up prices.

A bullish year ahead for gold

The 2024 outlook for XAU/USD is apparently bullish at the moment, supported by strong physical demand, strong central bank purchases, and potential shifts in monetary policy. 

While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the long-term trend points towards higher gold prices. Analysts from several banking firms note that the critical factors that could drive gold prices to new heights include sustained central bank buying, increased investment demand, and macroeconomic uncertainties.

The interplay between monetary policy, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risks will continue to shape the gold market’s trajectory. For now, the consensus appears to be pretty much clear: gold remains a valuable asset in an uncertain world, with the potential for significant gains in the coming months and years.

Confluence of Indicators Point to 2.23 and Lower

There is a confluence of price levels that appear from around 2.23 to 2.17. That is not too much lower than the current retracement low of 2.27. The range provides a potential support area given the confluence of indicators pointing to the price range. Two key levels include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.18 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2.20. Each method is looking to identify a harmonic price level associated with prior swings highs and lows. The target from the ABCD pattern is an extended target using the 127.2% Fibonacci ratio.

Bullish Sentiment Begins to Dominate Above 2.46

An alternative to the bearish scenario unfolds with a rally above Tuesday’s high of 2.45, along with the 200-Day MA at 2.46. An earlier initial indication of strength would be seen in a rally above today’s high of 2.385. However, an advance above 2.385 puts the price of natural gas heading back up into potential resistance around the 200-Day line. And resistance may be seen again.

Once the 200-Day line is exceeded, a potentially significant near-term barrier to a continuation higher is resolved. It would set the stage for a rally up to the 50-Day MA at 2.55 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.61. A little higher will be a price range from around 2.67 to 2.71. That range consists of the 20-Day MA and 50% retracement, respectively.

20-Week MA Further Confirms Support Zone

Regarding the next lower potential support zone, in addition to four price levels that identify the price range there is also confirmation of the range on the higher time frame weekly chart. The 20-Week MA is present on the weekly chart (not shown) at 2.19. Also, the 50-Week MA is a close match with potential resistance around the 200-Day line. It shows potential resistance at 2.49.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

I took about a half off and now I’m still up a little bit, not overly concerned, this is something that I’m playing with no leverage, so it’s not a big deal if I’m down or percent in this position. It’s down 1% of like 3.5% of my portfolio. So again, not something to be overly concerned about. Natural gas is something that I swing trade.

I don’t want short term trade, although I’m the first to admit that a little bit of a bounce would make a certain amount of sense, but we just don’t have a catalyst. We have the CPI and the PPI numbers coming out over the next couple of days. So that could come into the picture. But really, at this point in time, I think the natural gas market is still going to suffer from the one massive problem it’s going to have, probably for years. It’s that natural gas is everywhere. It’s not rare. So, at this point in time, you know, I may add a little bit to a dip. But again, this is such a small part of my portfolio I really don’t care.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

3 Players Profiles
3.1 Power Root
3.1.1 Power Root Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.1.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.1.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.1.4 Business Overview
3.2 Smucker
3.2.1 Smucker Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.2.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.2.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.2.4 Business Overview
3.3 Vinacafe
3.3.1 Vinacafe Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.3.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.3.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.3.4 Business Overview
3.4 The Kraft Heinz
3.4.1 The Kraft Heinz Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.4.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.4.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.4.4 Business Overview
3.5 Starbucks
3.5.1 Starbucks Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.5.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.5.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.5.4 Business Overview
3.6 Trung Nguyen
3.6.1 Trung Nguyen Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.6.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.6.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.6.4 Business Overview
3.7 AMT Coffee
3.7.1 AMT Coffee Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.7.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.7.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.7.4 Business Overview
3.8 Tata Global Beverages
3.8.1 Tata Global Beverages Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.8.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.8.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.8.4 Business Overview
3.9 Maxwell House
3.9.1 Maxwell House Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.9.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.9.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.9.4 Business Overview
3.10 Nestle
3.10.1 Nestle Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.10.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.10.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.10.4 Business Overview
3.11 JDE
3.11.1 JDE Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.11.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.11.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.11.4 Business Overview
3.12 Tchibo Coffee
3.12.1 Tchibo Coffee Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.12.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.12.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.12.4 Business Overview
3.13 Unilever
3.13.1 Unilever Basic Information, Manufacturing Base, Sales Area and Competitors
3.13.2 Product Profiles, Application and Specification
3.13.3 3 in 1 Coffee Market Performance (2017-2022)
3.13.4 Business Overview

Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending July 5, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts had expected a 250,000-barrel draw.

For the week prior, the API reported a surprise 9.163-million-barrel draw in crude inventories.

On Tuesday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 500,000 barrels as of July 5. Inventories are now at 373.1 million, up from 372.6 million barrels the previous week. That is the highest level since December 2022, but still short of the 656 million barrels in inventory in June 2020.

Oil prices were trading down ahead of the API data release on Tuesday. At 4:17 am ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.06% on the day at $84.84-and up about $1 per barrel from this time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was also trading down 0.84% on the day at $81.64-down about 0.87% from this time last week.

Gasoline inventories fell by 3 million barrels this week, after last week’s 2.468-million-barrel increase.

The inventory outlier was distillates, which saw a 2.3-million-barrel increase in stockpiles, compared to last week’s 740,009-barrel draw.

Cushing inventories were down 1.2 million barrels this week, according to API data, after rising by 404,000 barrels in the previous week.

On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2024 demand estimate to 1.11 million barrels per day-up from 1.08 million bpd-while also raising the 2025 estimate from 1.53 mbpd to 1.77 mbpd, noting that the global oil market is heading for a supply deficit next year.

The EIA’s demand upgrade follows the June extension of must OPEC+ output cuts into 2025 to strengthen lagging demand growth.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

• Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
• The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
• Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak

Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.

Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.

Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.

Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.

Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.

Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

• Gold price extends the previous rebound early Wednesday, awaits Powell’s second testimony.
• The US Dollar holds recovery gains with Treasury bond yields even as Fed rate cut bets remain intact.
• Gold price looks north toward $2,400 amid bullish daily RSI, as $2,350 holds the fort.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rebound above $2,350 in Wednesday’s Asian session, as the US Dollar (USD) consolidates its recovery gains alongside the US Treasury bond yields.

Gold awaits more Powell and Fedspeak

Gold traders weigh US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony delivered before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, awaiting his second round in front of the House Financial Services Committee later on Wednesday.

Besides, Powell’s testimony, the focus will also remain on a bunch of speeches from several Fed policymakers, which could help markets seal in a September interest rate cut.

Even though Powell sounded prudent on the policy outlook, during his testimony on Tuesday, saying that inflation had been improving in recent months and that “more good data would strengthen” the case for the rate cut. However, he told lawmakers that he did not want “to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions” on rates.

Markets continued pricing in over a 70% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another rate cut in December is also on the table.

Gold price stalled its rebound near $2,370 on Tuesday, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, as the US Treasury bond yields jumped and propelled US Dollar back on the bids.

Market participants also took Powell’s speech as an excuse to book profits on their US Dollar shorts heading into Thursday’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation release.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

Alternatively, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

Bearish Sentiment Dominates Until Rally Above 200-Day MA

Arguably, the retracement may be complete but there is not enough information yet to make that determination. There remains a lower target zone from 2.23 to 2.17 that has yet to be tested as support. If the 200-Day line continues to reflect resistance, a test of the lower support target becomes more likely. Nevertheless, the bearish scenario begins to soften on a decisive rally above last Tuesday’s high of 2.48. That will put natural gas above the 200-Day line, currently at 2.46. Strength would be confirmed on a daily close above 2.48.

Rally to Test Prior Support at 2.63?

The last breakdown price level was at the swing low of 2.635 (B) from June 24. Therefore, a swing back up to test that price area as resistance may play out if today’s daily bullish reversal can be sustained. Other price levels to watch on an upside move include the 50-Day MA at 2.54, the 38.2% Fibonacci upside retracement at 2.61, and the combined 50% retracement and 20-Day MA at 2.71. Each price area could see resistance on the way up.

Downward Pressure Remains

Given the bearish reaction today when encountering the 200-Day line resistance area, downward pressure remains. Unless there is a decisive rally above the 200-Day line with a daily close above it, the correction is set up to continue. As noted, there is a slightly lower target support zone that is derived from four price levels. Two come from previous support or resistance levels and two are from Fibonacci calculations. Just using the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement as a target level is enough. The other levels further confirm the likelihood of a 61.8% retracement prior to the correction being complete.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This blog post is part of a special series based on the April 2024 Commodity Markets Outlook, a flagship report published by the World Bank. This series features concise summaries of commodity-specific sections extracted from the report. Explore the full report here.

The World Bank’s beverage price index eased in early to mid-May after reaching a record high in April 2024. This year, the index is expected to average over 20 percent higher than in 2023, with a projected decrease in 2025 as new supplies enter the market. However, the emerging La Niña could cause weather-related disruptions, posing risks to this forecast.

After reaching record highs in April, coffee prices eased in May. Both Arabica and Robusta prices declined following significant weather-related supply constraints in the first quarter of 2024, particularly impacting Robusta. The global coffee market is expected to see some relief with an anticipated addition of nearly 7 million bags this season, mainly from key Arabica producers such as Brazil and Colombia. However, the Robusta market will continue to face supply challenges, particularly in Vietnam—the world’s dominant Robusta supplier—where hot and dry conditions could impair yields. On the demand side, consumption is projected to increase by more than 1 percent from last season, reaching a record 170.5 million bags during the ongoing 2023-24 season. Arabica prices are expected to rise marginally in 2024 before easing in 2025. In contrast, Robusta prices are projected to average more than 40 percent higher in 2024 compared to 2023 before also easing in 2025. Risks to this forecast, especially for 2025, include the emerging La Niña, which could impact production in both South America and East Asia.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,360.03

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee.
• Chairman Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission.
• XAU/USD under modest selling pressure but holding above $2,350.

Gold remained weak throughout the first half of Tuesday, albeit holding on to familiar levels as financial markets traded with an optimistic yet neutral stance. XAU/USD fell to $2,349.31 yet quickly trimmed losses and bounced towards the current price zone just above $2,360 as investors assessed words from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy, Powell offered some hawkish headlines that helped the US Dollar. Among other things, he said that restrictive policies are helping put downward pressure on inflation, but adding that inflation remains above the 2% goal. Furthermore, he said that policymakers are not confident enough that elevated inflation will keep receding and that they need more confidence to abandon the tight monetary policy stance. Finally, he explained that decisions would be made meeting by meeting.

Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission and may add some interesting headlines, although the most relevant comments have already been made.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades at around its daily opening, with the risk still skewed to the upside. The pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) flat, providing dynamic support at around $2,335. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below it, while technical indicators turned flat right above their midlines.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, on the contrary, the risk skews to the downside. Sellers are aligned at around a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory without enough strength to confirm an upcoming slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs converge at around the $2,335 price zone, reinforcing its relevance as a support area.

Support levels: 2,349.30 2,335.00 2,318.40

Resistance levels: 2,368.60, 2,387.60 2,400.00

XAU/USD Current price: $2,360.03

• Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee.
• Chairman Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission.
• XAU/USD under modest selling pressure but holding above $2,350.

Gold remained weak throughout the first half of Tuesday, albeit holding on to familiar levels as financial markets traded with an optimistic yet neutral stance. XAU/USD fell to $2,349.31 yet quickly trimmed losses and bounced towards the current price zone just above $2,360 as investors assessed words from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

Testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy, Powell offered some hawkish headlines that helped the US Dollar. Among other things, he said that restrictive policies are helping put downward pressure on inflation, but adding that inflation remains above the 2% goal. Furthermore, he said that policymakers are not confident enough that elevated inflation will keep receding and that they need more confidence to abandon the tight monetary policy stance. Finally, he explained that decisions would be made meeting by meeting.

Powell will repeat its testimony on Wednesday before a different commission and may add some interesting headlines, although the most relevant comments have already been made.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades at around its daily opening, with the risk still skewed to the upside. The pair keeps trading above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) flat, providing dynamic support at around $2,335. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below it, while technical indicators turned flat right above their midlines.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, on the contrary, the risk skews to the downside. Sellers are aligned at around a flat 20 SMA, while technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory without enough strength to confirm an upcoming slide. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs converge at around the $2,335 price zone, reinforcing its relevance as a support area.

Support levels: 2,349.30 2,335.00 2,318.40

Resistance levels: 2,368.60, 2,387.60 2,400.00

• Gold price rebounds early Tuesday after the pullback from six-week highs of $2,393 on Monday.
• The US Dollar holds the downside in sync with Treasury bond yields, as risk appetite returns.
• Gold price stays ‘buy-the-dips-‘ trade on increased Fed rate cut bets, Powell’s testimony is next on tap.

Gold price is attempting a tepid bounce while defending the $2,350 psychological support in Asian trading on Tuesday.

The renewed uptick in Gold price could be attributed to the downside consolidation phase of the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Traders eagerly await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimonies for fresh hints on the interest-rate cut timing.

Markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another cut is expected by December.

Friday’s disappointing US labor market report affirmed a Fed rate cut in September after the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 in June, beating the market forecast for a 190,000 gain but April and May readings were significantly revised down by a combined 111,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-on-year, as expected, registering its lowest since the second quarter of 2021.

Fed Chair Powell’s words could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, lifting Gold price to all-time highs beyond $2,400 at the expense of the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. Powell delivers two days of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, beginning later on Tuesday and followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Besides, several other Fed policymakers are also likely to speak on Tuesday, which could drive the Gold price action amid a data-light US calendar.

Gold price tumbled on Monday due to profit-taking and concerns over China’s Gold demand. Gold traders resorted to profit-taking after the bright metal failed at the $2,400 threshold while some repositioned ahead of Powell’s testimony and US inflation data due this week.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of Gold at the end of June, unchanged from the end of May, the data showed. This was the second month in a row that the PBOC refrained from adding Gold to its reserves.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns north again, above the 50 level.

Gold buyers must take out the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the flip side, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

• Gold price rebounds early Tuesday after the pullback from six-week highs of $2,393 on Monday.
• The US Dollar holds the downside in sync with Treasury bond yields, as risk appetite returns.
• Gold price stays ‘buy-the-dips-‘ trade on increased Fed rate cut bets, Powell’s testimony is next on tap.

Gold price is attempting a tepid bounce while defending the $2,350 psychological support in Asian trading on Tuesday.

The renewed uptick in Gold price could be attributed to the downside consolidation phase of the US Dollar and the US Treasury bond yields. Traders eagerly await US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s congressional testimonies for fresh hints on the interest-rate cut timing.

Markets are pricing a 77% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Another cut is expected by December.

Friday’s disappointing US labor market report affirmed a Fed rate cut in September after the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 in June, beating the market forecast for a 190,000 gain but April and May readings were significantly revised down by a combined 111,000. Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-on-year, as expected, registering its lowest since the second quarter of 2021.

Fed Chair Powell’s words could reinforce dovish Fed expectations, lifting Gold price to all-time highs beyond $2,400 at the expense of the US Dollar and the Treasury bond yields. Powell delivers two days of testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, beginning later on Tuesday and followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Besides, several other Fed policymakers are also likely to speak on Tuesday, which could drive the Gold price action amid a data-light US calendar.

Gold price tumbled on Monday due to profit-taking and concerns over China’s Gold demand. Gold traders resorted to profit-taking after the bright metal failed at the $2,400 threshold while some repositioned ahead of Powell’s testimony and US inflation data due this week.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday, China held 72.80 million troy ounces of Gold at the end of June, unchanged from the end of May, the data showed. This was the second month in a row that the PBOC refrained from adding Gold to its reserves.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price remains constructive, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) turns north again, above the 50 level.

Gold buyers must take out the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the flip side, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.