Buyers Show Interest

Today’s low was just shy of reaching of potential support zone for around 2.23 to 2.17. Nonetheless, a likely strong daily close and a key reversal day shows buyers stepping up. That may lead to a bullish retracement to test potential areas of resistance. If natural gas stays within the downtrend (retracement) price structure following a bounce, a test of the lows and possibly the slightly lower support zone may yet occur.

Resistance Zone from 2.45 to 2.475

A key price zone to watch for resistance is around the 200-Day MA, which is now at 2.46. That moving average can be watched together with the previous swing low of 2.475 as they are close to each other. Moreover, the most recent minor swing high of 2.45 is a little lower than the 200-Day line. It has some significance as it was the first day in eight days down that exceeded the previous day’s high.

An advance above 2.45 improves the chance that natural gas can challenge resistance around the 200-Day MA. It would show strength as the 2.45 swing high makes up part of the downtrend price structure of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. A daily close above the price level would confirm strength and improve the chance for a continuation higher. The next higher potential resistance zone looks to be from the 50-Day MA at 2.56 and up to the 20-Day MA at 2.59.

Higher Target Goes From 2.56 to 2.59

Notice that the 50-Day line continues to rise, and it is approaching the 20-Day line. Also, the 20-Day line is falling and has converged with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.60. In general, in Fibonacci analysis, a minimum retracement to at least the 38.2% retracement is common. On June 28 support was found around the same price area as the 38.2% retracement. However, that support level didn’t last long as the next day natural gas continued to fall. A downtrend line for the current decline has been added to the chart to provide additional guidance during an advance.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

The natural gas markets did very little in the early hours on Friday, and so it looks like we are just going to hang around the $2.25 region. This is a market that might be in the process of forming a little bit of a double bottom on the four hour chart, but really at this point, I think any bounce is probably more or less going to be a short term rally just waiting to happen, not necessarily some type of major turnaround. In fact, we may get that little bit of a bounce, mainly due to the fact that at least here in the northeastern part of the United States, we are going to get pretty nasty heat.

Next week it will be in the neighborhood of around 38°C. if my calculation is correct. But this is a short term thing. So, if you are nimble enough, yes, you may be able to buy it here, but I wouldn’t get married to this position. For myself, I am investing in natural gas and therefore I am through an ETF, and I don’t have any leverage. So, I’m just going to sell at the end of summer, mid fall when we really start to spike in price. It happens every year. So, it’s not exactly a very difficult trade to take, but the lack of leverage is what you desperately need because this is a market that can get thrown around quite quickly.

CPI Data Fuels Rate Cut Optimism

Thursday saw silver prices surge to nearly two-month highs following an unexpected decline in U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The surprise dip in inflation metrics bolstered investor confidence that the Federal Reserve might be inching closer to interest rate cuts, potentially as early as September.

PPI Report Dampens Enthusiasm

However, Friday’s PPI report, showing a 0.2% increase in wholesale prices for June, slightly exceeded expectations. This data has prompted some traders to book profits and reassess their positions, introducing uncertainty about the Fed’s next moves.

Treasury Yields React

U.S. Treasury yields edged higher on Friday in response to the PPI data. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by over 2 basis points to 4.21%, although it remains on track for a significant weekly decline following Thursday’s CPI-induced drop.

Fed Officials Signal Potential Easing

Recent comments from Fed officials have added to the market’s dovish expectations. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggested that further easing in both prices and the labor market could warrant interest rate cuts. Similarly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed optimism about the U.S. economy’s trajectory toward 2% inflation.

Market Forecast

The silver market is experiencing a significant downturn, with prices plummeting rapidly. The bullish momentum from the CPI report has been completely overshadowed by the PPI data, leading to a sharp reversal in market sentiment. Traders are aggressively selling off their positions, causing a cascade effect in prices.

The short-term outlook for silver appears decidedly bearish, with the potential for further downside as market participants continue to digest the conflicting economic signals. Key support levels are likely to be tested in the coming sessions. Investors should brace for increased volatility and potentially steeper declines.

 It can be hard to balance the demands of eating well without spending a lot. In this series, we try to find the healthiest options in the supermarket for the best value – and have enlisted the help of Sunna Van Kampen, founder of Tonic Health, who went viral on social media for reviewing food in the search of healthier choices. We also speak to dieticians each week.

Usual caveat: this series isn’t trying to outline the outright healthiest option, but help you get better nutritional value for as little money as possible.

This week we’re looking at chocolate. 

“Making the right chocolate choices can drastically cut your sugar intake without spoiling the fun,” says Sunna. 

We previously looked at how to turn chocolate into a superfood by swapping milk chocolate to increasingly higher percentage dark chocolate – but now we turn to the kind of high street favourite we can’t help but open in front of the telly.  

Let’s get straight into Sunna’s cost and sugar rankings…

M&M’s Chocolate – 125g for £1.65, 66% sugar content

Galaxy Counters – 122g for £1.65, 58% sugar content

Cadbury Buttons – 119g for £1.65, 56% sugar content

Reese’s Mini Cups – 90g for £1.75, 54% sugar content

Maltesers – 102g for £1.65, 53% sugar content

Maltesers Dark Chocolate – 88g for £1.65, 32% sugar content

“There seems to be a clear correlation here that we have to factor into our choices,” Sunna says.

That is – cocoa is expensive and sugar is cheap. 

“So, the better ‘value’ bigger packs are just loading you with more sugar,” he says.

How much sugar can we eat?

The NHS recommends adults have 30g of sugar a day, with that decreasing to 24g for seven to 10-year-olds and 19g a day for four to six-year-olds. 

“A cut in sugar is not just good news for our waistlines, but also for our overall health, contributing to a balanced diet without the same spikes in blood sugar levels,” Sunna says.

Those spikes can cause sudden drops in energy, spates of hunger and potentially lead to type two diabetes. 

Putting those figures into context

Take the M&M’s mentioned by Sunna in that table. 

“They offer 125g bag with 66% sugar content which is an astounding 82.5g of sugar per bag,” he says.

“That’s over 20 teaspoons of sugar – or nearly three times your daily recommended intake for adults in just one bag – and we all know that one bag never makes it through movie night unfinished.”

At the bottom end of the list is Maltesers Dark Chocolate. 

“At just 32% sugar in an 88g bag, we are talking about a cool 28g of sugar per bag. 

“That’s still seven teaspoons of sugar and 93% of your daily allowance – but is a whopping 65% less sugar than M&M’s – so that’s a big win for your health.”

Zooming out

Let’s take an even further step back. 

If you consume 60 bags’ worth over the course of a year, then you could be in for a massive 3.2kg of sugar savings per year if you switch from M&M’s to Maltesers Dark Chocolate. 

“That’s definitely worth it considering the price you’ll pay is exactly the same – albeit for a 30% smaller bag,” Sunna says.

“You could look at it being a 30% more expensive choice for the healthier Dark Maltesers, but your health will certainly thank you and your bank account will look the same at the end of the day.”

If the dark chocolate alternative just isn’t for you, then try picking options that have lower sugar content – and use the examples above as a guide. 

The nutritionist’s view – from Nichola Ludlam-Raine, dietitian at nicsnutrition.com…

“When we cut down on sugar, it’s crucial not to overlook other aspects of our diet, particularly saturated fat. 

“Many foods, including chocolate, marketed as ‘low sugar’ or ‘sugar-free’ (many ‘diabetic’ chocolate bars may say this on the front) often compensate for taste with increased levels of saturated fats or sweeteners – too much of which may cause an upset stomach. 

“These fats, when consumed in excess, can raise cholesterol levels and increase the risk of heart disease. 

“Therefore, while reducing sugar intake, one must also be mindful of saturated fat content to ensure a truly balanced and health-promoting diet.

“In the quest for healthier alternatives, 70% cocoa chocolate often strikes a happy balance between health and taste. 

“Dark chocolate with this level of cocoa content tends to have less sugar compared to milk chocolate while still retaining a satisfying taste. 

“Additionally, it offers several health benefits, including antioxidants, which can contribute to heart health and improved cognitive function. 

“However, it’s still important to consume it in moderation, as even dark chocolate contains calories and some saturated fat.”

Sky News has approached Mars Wrigley Confectionary Ltd, which owns M&M’s, for comment. 

Read more from this series… 

• Gold price pulls back to $2,400 early Friday, having hit fresh two-month highs at $2,425 on Thursday.
• The US Dollar rebounds with Treasury bond yields after softer US CPI data spiked September Fed rate cut bets.
• The USD/JPY recovery post-FX intervention also supports the Greenback.
• Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade amid the bullish technical setup on the daily chart.

Gold price is reversing to test the $2,400 threshold early Friday, staging a minor pullback from a new two-month top set at $2,425 on Thursday. Traders now look forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and looming risks of more Japanese forex (FX) market intervention for the next push higher in Gold price.

Gold price consolidates weekly gains

Gold price is on track to witness a third consecutive week of gains, sitting at its highest level since May. Despite the latest pullback Gold price remains exposed to upside risks, as a September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost a done deal after the softer-than-expected June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Thursday.

The US CPI climbed 3.0% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May and below the 3.1% expected print. Meanwhile, the annual core CPI inflation dipped to 3.3% in the same period, against the market consensus of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% while core CPI rose 0.1%. Both readings fell short of expectations.

Bets for a September Fed rate cut spiked to above 90% following the dismal US inflation data, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, compared to a 74% chance seen pre-CPI release. The US Dollar was slammed alongside the US Treasury bond yields, in the aftermath of the US inflation data, with the pain exacerbated by the USD/JPY sell-off.

The Japanese Yen rallied hard, as the US CPI gloom was joined by Japan’s forex market intervention, smashing USD/JPY over 300 pips in a matter of an hour. Against this backdrop, Gold price stormed through the $2,400 barrier to hit the highest level in two months.  

In the day ahead, Gold price could see an extension of the corrective downside if the US Dollar recovery gathers traction. However, traders will likely remain wary ahead of the US PPI inflation report and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, which could reinforce fresh selling around the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a fresh leg higher in Gold price. The end-of-the-week flows could also play a pivot role in the Gold price action.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to suggest a retest of the all-time highs at $2,450, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds its position well above the 50 level.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from below, which if realized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross and revive the Gold price upside.

Gold buyers need to yield a decisive break above the two-month high of $2,425 to retake the record highs of $2,450.

On the downside, if the pullback gains momentum, Gold price could face immediate support at the previous week’s high near $2,390.

The next bearish target is seen at the previous day’s low of $2,371, below which the $2,350 psychological level will come into play.

All in all, Gold price remains a good buying opportunity on every pullback.

(This story was corrected on July 12 at 07:41 GMT to say that “the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from below, which if realized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross and revive the Gold price upside,” not Bear Cross).

 

• Gold price pulls back to $2,400 early Friday, having hit fresh two-month highs at $2,425 on Thursday.
• The US Dollar rebounds with Treasury bond yields after softer US CPI data spiked September Fed rate cut bets.
• The USD/JPY recovery post-FX intervention also supports the Greenback.
• Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade amid the bullish technical setup on the daily chart.

Gold price is reversing to test the $2,400 threshold early Friday, staging a minor pullback from a new two-month top set at $2,425 on Thursday. Traders now look forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and looming risks of more Japanese forex (FX) market intervention for the next push higher in Gold price.

Gold price consolidates weekly gains

Gold price is on track to witness a third consecutive week of gains, sitting at its highest level since May. Despite the latest pullback Gold price remains exposed to upside risks, as a September interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost a done deal after the softer-than-expected June US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Thursday.

The US CPI climbed 3.0% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May and below the 3.1% expected print. Meanwhile, the annual core CPI inflation dipped to 3.3% in the same period, against the market consensus of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.1% while core CPI rose 0.1%. Both readings fell short of expectations.

Bets for a September Fed rate cut spiked to above 90% following the dismal US inflation data, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, compared to a 74% chance seen pre-CPI release. The US Dollar was slammed alongside the US Treasury bond yields, in the aftermath of the US inflation data, with the pain exacerbated by the USD/JPY sell-off.

The Japanese Yen rallied hard, as the US CPI gloom was joined by Japan’s forex market intervention, smashing USD/JPY over 300 pips in a matter of an hour. Against this backdrop, Gold price stormed through the $2,400 barrier to hit the highest level in two months.  

In the day ahead, Gold price could see an extension of the corrective downside if the US Dollar recovery gathers traction. However, traders will likely remain wary ahead of the US PPI inflation report and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations, which could reinforce fresh selling around the US Dollar. This, in turn, could trigger a fresh leg higher in Gold price. The end-of-the-week flows could also play a pivot role in the Gold price action.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to suggest a retest of the all-time highs at $2,450, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds its position well above the 50 level.

Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from below, which if realized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross and revive the Gold price upside.

Gold buyers need to yield a decisive break above the two-month high of $2,425 to retake the record highs of $2,450.

On the downside, if the pullback gains momentum, Gold price could face immediate support at the previous week’s high near $2,390.

The next bearish target is seen at the previous day’s low of $2,371, below which the $2,350 psychological level will come into play.

All in all, Gold price remains a good buying opportunity on every pullback.

(This story was corrected on July 12 at 07:41 GMT to say that “the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from below, which if realized on a daily closing basis will confirm a Bull Cross and revive the Gold price upside,” not Bear Cross).

 

Targets 2.23 to 2.17 Support Zone

Within the 2.27 to 2.17 price zone are two additional indications on the daily chart that support the identification of that price zone. First, there is a descending ABCD pattern where the CD leg of the pattern has been extended by 127.2% of the initial AB decline. It reaches the target at 2.20. In addition, there is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that completes at 2.18.

Since today is Thursday, if natural gas stays around current price levels or lower heading into the weekend, it is set to end with another bearish weekly candlestick pattern and a close near the lows of the week. Regardless, this week will complete the fourth sequential week of lower weekly highs and lower weekly lows. As of the 2.26 low today, the price of natural gas has declined by 28.4% from the June swing high of 3.16 (A).

Challenging Below 200-Day MA

If support is seen in the price zone that leads to a bullish reversal, rallies will first need to contend with possible resistance around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.46. It represented resistance earlier this week and may do so again. Given how persistent the current correction has been to date, there is a chance for a bounce up into resistance, followed by a turn back down.

Either way, if the 2.17 price area is decisively broken to the downside, the initial bullish breakout from the top of a bottom symmetrical triangle pattern could eventually be challenged as support. That price level is at 2.00 and highlighted on the chart with a red box.

The current retracement followed a failed attempt to break out above the downtrend line in early-June. That created a lower swing high and kept the downtrend price structure in place. Failed moves can lead to fast moves and that looks to be what we’ve been seeing in natural gas since the June high.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Fed Chair Signals Potential Rate Cut

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent congressional testimony has sparked renewed interest in gold. During his appearances before Senate and House committees, Powell indicated that the Fed is moving closer to a rate cut decision, while maintaining caution about declaring victory over inflation.

Inflation Data in Focus

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due later today, is expected to show core inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month in June. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast June’s headline CPI to reflect a 0.1% rise monthly and 3.1% annually, down from May’s 3.3% yearly increase. The Producer Price Index (PPI) follows on Friday. These reports are crucial for gauging the Fed’s next moves.

Market Expectations Shift

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in a more than 71% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, a significant increase from the near-even odds a month ago. This shift in expectations has put pressure on the U.S. dollar, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies.

Treasury Yields and Dollar Performance

U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as investors await the inflation data. The dollar edged 0.2% lower against a basket of currencies, with traders hesitant to take new positions before the CPI report. The Fed’s 2% inflation target remains a key focus, with Powell suggesting that the central bank might not wait for inflation to reach this level before considering rate cuts.

Analyst Perspectives

Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, noted that “Gold continues to shine on rising Fed rate cut bets following dovish comments by Powell during his congressional testimony.” Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA, added that a softer-than-expected CPI could push gold above $2,400.

Market Forecast

The short-term outlook for gold appears bullish. If CPI data comes in softer than expected, gold prices could potentially break above the $2,400 mark. The current trend in monetary policy and sustained gold demand indicate the ongoing bull market in gold could persist.

For Savings Guide this week, Savings Champion research and development manager Daniel Darragh gives us the lowdown on the best notice accounts on the market right now… 

Notice accounts have seen a rally in recent times, with rates on the rise.

Some of these accounts are offering some of the highest rates outside of regular savings accounts. OakNorth’s 95-Day Base Rate Tracker, paying 5.37% AER, and Vanquis’s 90 and 60-Day accounts, paying 5.35% and 5.30% AER respectively, even beat any fixed-rate term accounts currently available.

A relatively unloved and often overlooked area of the savings market, notice accounts tend to offer higher rates than easy access accounts due to their restrictions on access, but they have greater flexibility of access than a fixed-term bond.

As the name suggests, notice accounts require you to give notice to access your money without a penalty. Usual notice periods range from 30 to 120 days, although there are some accounts on the market that require six months or even a year’s notice. 

While you need to give the required notice to access your cash on the majority of notice accounts, some will allow immediate access with a penalty equivalent to the notice period – although this is now less common. This penalty can be taken from the capital if insufficient interest has built up prior to access, so it’s important to plan carefully as you could end up with less money than you put in.

It’s also important to note that unlike fixed-rate bonds, notice accounts pay a variable rate of interest so are subject to fluctuations in rates over time. This is particularly pertinent given the speculation that the Bank of England is considering cutting interest rates in the coming months, which may well be passed onto savers in variable rate accounts by the underlying provider.

In the case of notice accounts, when rates decrease, the amount of notice given to customers varies from provider to provider. Some providers will give customers the full notice period, plus x number of days, before any rate reductions take effect – in essence, allowing clients to give notice and withdraw their funds from the account before the new, lower rate takes effect. 

Other providers may only give a set amount of days, less than the notice period itself, which means that, even if you were to give notice on the day you were informed of the rate drop, your money would be subject to the lower rate for at least part of the notice period. As there is no hard and fast rule on this, it is important to check the terms and conditions of the account so you know what situation you will be in if or when rates start to fall.

For some people, not being able to access their money immediately is important to help them to resist dipping into their savings and it could also be a good way of getting a higher return on money that you know you will not need straight away – so could be a serious consideration for many cash savers.

• Gold price extends its recovery momentum toward $2,400 on US CPI day.
• The US Dollar nurses losses with Treasury bond yields, as risk flows dominate on Fed rate cut bets.
• Gold price keeps eyes on $2,400 and US CPI inflation data amid bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price is extending its upbeat momentum into a third consecutive day on Thursday, eagerly looking forward to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release later in the day to seal in a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

All eyes remain on US CPI report

Following a brief pause in the Gold price recovery following round one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, buyers regained control on Wednesday after Powell’s second congressional appearance.

Powell’s caution on loosening labor market conditions suggested a September rate cut is likely on the cards, knocking off the US Dollar (USD) once again alongwith the US Treasury bond yields. Heightening dovish Fed expectations fuelled a risk-on rally on Wall Street, which exerted additional downside pressure on the safe-haven Greenback.

Broad US Dollar weakness, Gold price made another run toward $2,400 but failed due to risk appetite, diminishing the demand for the non-yielding Gold price.

On Thursday, risk flows extend into Asian trading, keeping Gold price afloat at the expense of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields seems to lack conviction, in the face of the expected slowdown in the annual US CPI inflation data for June.

The US CPI is seen rising 3.1% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May while the annual core CPI inflation is likely to steady at 3.4% in the same period. On a monthly basis, CPI is set to rise 0.1% while core CPI is seen up by 0.2%.

A softer-than-expected US headline annual CPI data or a downside surprise in the monthly inflation figure could affirm a September Fed rate cut while boosting odds for another rate cut in December. Conversely, hot inflation data could push back against Fed rate cuts as early as September.

In the former case, Gold price could storm through the roof and retest all-time highs, as the US Dollar is likely to melt with the yields. However, hot US inflation data could sink Gold price toward $2,300.

Markets are currently pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Besides, speeches from Fed officials and US President Joe Biden could also have some bearing on the USD-denominated Gold price. Biden could express his take on the June inflation data and the timing of the Fed rate cut. Also, markets could focus on his comments on the nomination issue amid long-simmering concerns about Biden’s age and whether he’s fit to serve a second term as a US President.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to lean in favor of buyers, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the downside, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

• Gold price extends its recovery momentum toward $2,400 on US CPI day.
• The US Dollar nurses losses with Treasury bond yields, as risk flows dominate on Fed rate cut bets.
• Gold price keeps eyes on $2,400 and US CPI inflation data amid bullish daily technical setup.

Gold price is extending its upbeat momentum into a third consecutive day on Thursday, eagerly looking forward to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release later in the day to seal in a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in September.

All eyes remain on US CPI report

Following a brief pause in the Gold price recovery following round one of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony on Tuesday, buyers regained control on Wednesday after Powell’s second congressional appearance.

Powell’s caution on loosening labor market conditions suggested a September rate cut is likely on the cards, knocking off the US Dollar (USD) once again alongwith the US Treasury bond yields. Heightening dovish Fed expectations fuelled a risk-on rally on Wall Street, which exerted additional downside pressure on the safe-haven Greenback.

Broad US Dollar weakness, Gold price made another run toward $2,400 but failed due to risk appetite, diminishing the demand for the non-yielding Gold price.

On Thursday, risk flows extend into Asian trading, keeping Gold price afloat at the expense of the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the modest uptick in the US Treasury bond yields seems to lack conviction, in the face of the expected slowdown in the annual US CPI inflation data for June.

The US CPI is seen rising 3.1% YoY in June, slowing from a 3.3% increase in May while the annual core CPI inflation is likely to steady at 3.4% in the same period. On a monthly basis, CPI is set to rise 0.1% while core CPI is seen up by 0.2%.

A softer-than-expected US headline annual CPI data or a downside surprise in the monthly inflation figure could affirm a September Fed rate cut while boosting odds for another rate cut in December. Conversely, hot inflation data could push back against Fed rate cuts as early as September.

In the former case, Gold price could storm through the roof and retest all-time highs, as the US Dollar is likely to melt with the yields. However, hot US inflation data could sink Gold price toward $2,300.

Markets are currently pricing in a 74% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Besides, speeches from Fed officials and US President Joe Biden could also have some bearing on the USD-denominated Gold price. Biden could express his take on the June inflation data and the timing of the Fed rate cut. Also, markets could focus on his comments on the nomination issue amid long-simmering concerns about Biden’s age and whether he’s fit to serve a second term as a US President.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The short-term technical outlook for Gold price continues to lean in favor of buyers, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points north above the 50 level.

Gold buyers need to find acceptance above the six-week high of $2,393 to resume the uptrend toward the all-time high of $2,450. Ahead of that, the $2,400 level could act as a tough nut to crack for them.

On the downside, Gold price could face immediate support at the $2,350 psychological barrier, below which the $2,340 demand area will be challenged.

Around that level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 21-day SMA close in. A sustained move below the latter could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the $2,300 round level.

 

By Emily Mee, Money reporter

If TikTok is anything to go by, many of us are seeking that Sabrina Carpenter bronzed look this summer (me included). 

But without a pop star’s team of make-up artists and the bank account to boot, how can the rest of us get that perfect glow? 

We’ve asked four beauty experts to give us their top affordable dupes for high-end products. Here’s what they said (before one of them reveals the product you should never skimp on)… 

Suzanne Baum, freelance beauty editor

For Suzanne, affordable make-up brand e.l.f. can’t be beaten for its dupes: “Super affordable, long-lasting and provides a perfect finish for a summer glow.” 

These are her picks from the brand… 

e.l.f. Bronzing Drops, £12 

It’s a dupe for… Drunk Elephant’s D-Bronzi drops, £34

“A nourishing tinted serum for a sun-kissed glow,” she says. 

Just add one to three drops to your moisturiser, face oil or body cream.

e.l.f. Halo Glow Liquid Filter, £15 

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Flawless Filter, at £39

“A multi-purpose, liquid glow booster that gives your complexion a soft-focus social filter effect IRL,” says Suzanne. 

Wear on its own for sheer coverage, under foundation as a luminous base, as a highlighter or mixed with foundation for a dewy glow.

e.l.f. Power Grip Primer, £10 

It’s a dupe for… Milk Makeup Hydro Grip Primer, £35 

“A gel-based, hydrating face primer that smooths skin while gripping your make-up,” Suzanne says. 

e.l.f. Halo Glow Contour Beauty Wand, £9 

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Beauty Light Wand, £30 

“A liquid contour wand with a cushion-tip applicator for a naturally sculpted complexion,” the beauty expert says. 

Apply to your hairline, temples, sides of your nose, hollows of your cheeks and jawline, then blend with a brush. 

e.l.f. Camo Liquid Blush, £7

It’s a dupe for…. Rare Beauty Soft Pink Liquid Blush, £24

“A long-lasting liquid blush that delivers a high pigment pop of colour to cheeks with a dewy finish,” says Suzanne. 

e.l.f. Glow Reviver Lip Oil, £8 

It’s a dupe for… Dior Lip Glow Oil, £32 

“An ultra-glossy tinted lip oil that nourishes, hydrates and enhances your lips’ natural colour,” Suzanne says. 

Joyce Connor, make-up artist 

For Joyce, she’ll often go for the high-end brands over dupes – but there was one product that she thought was even better than the original. 

Here are her picks… 

Revolution Pro CC Perfecting Skin Enhancer, £10

It’s a dupe for… IT Cosmetics CC+ Nude Glow, £37

The IT Cosmetics product is Joyce’s go-to, but she says the Revolution version makes for a “very good” dupe. 

She says it gives a “nice glow without being shiny, because in the summer we don’t want to be caked in make-up”. 

It is worth noting that the IT Cosmetics version includes SPF 40, whereas the Revolution one does not. 

Apply before foundation for an added glow. 

Boots Glow Essence Serum, £5 

It’s a dupe for… Glossier Future Dew Facial Oil Serum Hybrid, £30

There’s quite a difference in price here, and Joyce says the Boots version gives a “nice sheen” under your foundation. 

However, she notes the Glossier product has a more golden tint. 

Massage two to three drops onto your skin before moisturising. 

Avon Radiance Ritual Touch Of Gold Body Oil, £5

It’s a dupe for… Sol De Janeiro GlowMotions Glow Body Oil, £35

For added glow, massage into the skin and do not rinse – or you can use it as a bath oil. 

NYX Professional Makeup Fat Oil Lip Drip Lip Gloss, £7.99

It’s a dupe for… Dior Addict Lip Glow Oil, £32

“To be honest, I prefer the Fat Oil to the Dior one,” says Joyce, picking it out as her favourite dupe. 

“It lasted longer on my lips. I didn’t have to top it up as quickly. I like the sheen of it. The colour was lovely,” she raves. 

Sue Moxley, beauty expert 

Sue believes you don’t have to spend a fortune to get quality products – and she’s a fan of “good old” Revlon and L’Oreal. 

Here are her picks… 

Revolution Fix and Glow Setting Spray, £8.99

It’s a dupe for… Charlotte Tilbury Hollywood Flawless Filter, £39

Okay, this isn’t a direct dupe as it’s a setting spray rather than a foundation. But Sue says if you pair this with your favourite foundation, it should give you that “wonderful flawless glow” similar to Flawless Filter. 

She recommends spraying it about 10 inches from your face all over and allowing it to dry for a few minutes. 

NYX Bare With Me Blur Tint Foundation, £9.99

It’s a dupe for… Jones Road What the Foundation, £42

A good alternative to the trending Jones Road foundation is NYX’s Bare With Me, which Sue says “smoothes pores but looks really light and natural”. 

“Apply with a make-up brush all over your face for a professional finish,” she says. 

Lacura Luminous Filter Foundation, £5

It’s a dupe for… Clinique Even Better SPF15 Foundation, £34.50

TikTok went wild for this Aldi dupe, which Sue says is an alternative to the “high end glossy foundations”. 

“It’s such a bargain – it’s definitely up there,” she says. 

She recommends applying all over with a sponge, pressing rather than rubbing into the skin. 

Rimmel Natural Bronzer, £6.99 

It’s a dupe for… Iconic London Kissed By the Sun Bronzer, £25

Sue says this is a light bronzer that “glides on easily with a blusher brush”. 

Swirl it on the hollows of your cheeks, up to your temples, down underneath your jawline and on the bridge of your nose. 

So, how much difference is there between the dupes and the high-end products? 

You might be wondering just how noticeable the difference is if you go for the cheaper alternative. 

It’s a difficult question to answer as it can vary from product to product – and not all the experts we spoke to were in total agreement. 

Sue Moxley says a lot of the lower end budget brands use similar ingredients to their more expensive counterparts. 

“You can get better packaging or the quality of the packaging is better, but it’s also the brand name that is putting the prices up,” she says. 

The high-end brands do put extra ingredients in, she says, but “they don’t warrant the amount of difference in price”. 

“It’s still lovely to go and buy a Chanel lipstick or something and have it in your bag and it makes you feel wonderful. You get it out and it’s gorgeous packaging and you put it on in the restaurant,” she says.

“It does make you feel good, but I do believe that there are products out there that are equivalent in quality and ingredients wise.” 

But Joyce Connor says the high-end brands are often worth it – although she does say you can “mix and match”. 

More expensive brands rarely sell single-ingredient products, she says, and this can make a difference in terms of what you’re getting. 

For example, she says an own-brand hyaluronic acid cream will often have that single ingredient but a similar product from a high-end brand will likely include peptides and ceramides – all providing extra value. 

One item not to skimp on

Joyce says if you’re going to spend money on anything, it should be your moisturiser so you can get a perfect base for your make-up. 

“There are plenty of dupes out there that that are going to be effective as long as you are moisturising,” she says. 

Her pick is the Goldfaden MD Vital Boost Even Skintone Daily Moisturiser – but at £60 for 50ml, that might be a bit much for some.