The GBPJPY pair faced strong negative pressures yesterday to notice crawling below 191.90 level and suffering some losses by touching 191.15 level, while the current positive rebound won’t allow the price to regain the bullish track due to the MA55 consolidation near 50% Fibonacci correction level at 194.10, to confirm confining trades within the negative track for the near-term trades.
Also, stochastic crawl below 50 level will increase the negative pressures to expect suffering additional losses by crawling towards 190.60 followed by reaching the next support at 189.50.
The expected trading range for today is between 190.60 and 192.60
Silver price bounces back to near $30.50 as its outlook remains firm on Donald Trump’s tariff fears.
Donald Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on North American peers and 100% on BRICS.
Investors await the US PCE inflation data for December.
Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers a majority of intraday losses and rebounds to near $30.50 in Friday’s European session. The white metal bounces back strongly as its outlook remains firm amid fears that United States (US) President Donald Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday for allowing illegal immigrants and the deadly opioid fentanyl enter into the economy. Such a scenario could lead to a trade war, which heightens geopolitical uncertainty, which is favorable for precious metals, like Silver.
Donald Trump has also threatened to implement 100% tariffs on the BRICS for attempting to create a new currency to diminish their reliance on the US Dollar. On his social media platform, Truth Social, on Thursday, Trump said, “There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs and goodbye to America.”
Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s (USD) appeal has also increased on Trump’s tariff threats but is trading subduedly in European trading hours ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists estimate the core PCE inflation to have risen by 0.2% against 0.1% growth seen in November on month-on-month, with annual figures growing steadily by 2.8%.
Signs of persistent inflationary pressures would boost market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at their current levels for a lengthy period. On Wednesday, the Fed left its key borrowing rates steady at 4.25%- 4.50% and guided that the central bank will remain in the waiting mode until it sees real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens on a decisive break above the upward-sloping trendline around $30.85, which is plotted from the 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe. The near-term outlook of the white metal remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $30.57.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI manages to hold above 60.00.
Looking down, the January 27 low of $29.70 will act as a key support zone for the Silver price. On the upside, the December 12 high of $32.33 will act as key resistance.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Crude oil price closed yesterday above 73.90$ level, to attempt to build bullish wave on the intraday basis and head towards achieving expected gains in the upcoming sessions, targeting testing 75.52$ mainly.
Therefore, the bullish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaking 73.90$ and holding below it will push the price to resume the correctional bearish track and head towards 72.30$ as a next negative station.
The expected trading range for today is between 72.80$ support and 75.80$ resistance
Gold price consolidates at fresh record highs of $2,800 early Friday.
Renewed Trump’s tariff threats spark the safe-haven appeal of Gold price.
The Dollar lacks bullish conviction amid disappointing US growth figures.
The daily technical setup points to more gains in the offing for Gold buyers.
Gold price is battling $2,800, sitting at its highest level on record early Friday. Renewed US Dollar selling and US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats help keep Gold price afloat ahead of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release.
Gold price eyes higher highs as Trump’s tariffs loom
President Trump’s latest tariff warnings keep investors on the edge, fuelling fresh demand for traditional safe havens such as the Japanese Yen, Gold and US government bonds. In his latest post on X, the 47th US President reiterated his threat of imposing 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they try to replace the US Dollar with a new currency in international trade.
Earlier in Thursday’s American trading, Trump noted that the US is set to impose a flat 25% import tax on February 1 “because of fentanyl” on all goods crossing the border into the US from Canada or Mexico while adding that “we’re in the process of doing a China tariff.”
Resurgent demand for the traditional store of value keeps the record-setting rally in Gold price alive and kicking as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid the ongoing pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen capitalizes on risk-off flows and hot Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which bolstered further Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike bets.
Traders now look to the US core PCE Price Index data, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation measure, for fresh insights on the central bank’s next policy move, especially after the American economy showed a bigger-than-expected slowdown in the final quarter of 2024.
US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department said, falling short of the 2.6% increase expected after reporting a growth of 3.1% in the third quarter.
The US Dollar tracked the US Treasury bond yields lower on disappointing US growth figures as the data revived dovish Fed expectations. However, Trump’s tariff threats lent some support to the Greenback in late American trading. However, that failed to deter Gold buyers as a flight to safety theme remained in vogue.
With tariffs likely to be announced over the weekend on Canada, Mexico and China, Gold price will remain the go-to asset due to its status as a safe-haven and an inflation hedge. Trump’s trade policies are prerceived as inflationary.
Gold price stands tall near fresh record highs after closing Thursday well beyond the symmetrical triangle target of $2,785 or the previous all-time high of $2,790.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently near 68, suggesting that there is more room to the upside before Gold price enters the overbought territory at 70.
Adding credence to the bullish potential, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 100-day SMA Bull Cross confirmed last week remains in play.
Gold price needs a sustained move above the $2,800 level to target next topside barrier at $2,850.
On the downside, the immediate support will be seen at the previous day’s low of $2,754.
Sellers will then aim for this week’s low of $2,731, folowed by the 21-day SMA at $2,714.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
A support zone is indicated around the 61.8% retracement level as a prior interim swing high was at 3.02 and an internal uptrend line is close by. However, if that price zone fails to show support, the next lower level to consider is around a trendline at approximately 2.82. That line is the top boundary line of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Further down is a potentially more significant support zone identified by both the 200-Day MA at 2.68 and the 78.6% retracement at 2.67. When two or more indicators point to a similar price area, it is one way that the market provides clues.
200-Day MA is Most Significant
Although the 200-Day line was successfully tested as support initially following a reclaim of the line on September 11, the current retracement is at a larger scale of the trend structure. Nonetheless, it would be expected to hold as support if tested given its long-term significance as a trend indicator. It is also interesting to note that the triangle apex crosses right at the 78.6% retracement level.
One way to identify a possibly failure of a bull breakout from a symmetrical triangle is the center line of the pattern (where boundary lines cross). The idea being that if the bulls remained in charge overall following a bull breakout of the pattern, the price would not be able to fall back below the midpoint, as it shows relative weakness that is getting worse.
Month of January Likely Ends Very Bearish
As noted previously, with one trading day remaining till the end of January, the developing monthly candlestick pattern (not shown) is likely to end in a bearish position. Today’s decline dropped the low for the month of January to 3.04, which increasing the chance that natural gas will end the month in a very bearish position on the monthly chart.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The EURJPY pair surrendered to the stability of 164.80 barrier to notice forming correctional bearish waves to settle near 162.20, testing the minor bullish channel’s support line that appears on the chart.
Note that crawling below the MA55 and stochastic continuous negative momentum might force the price to break the current support and suffer additional losses by crawling towards 161.60 and 161.00 levels, while holding above the support will reinforce the chances of forming bullish waves, to wait to rally above 163.30 to confirm its preparation to activate the bullish track again.
The expected trading range for today is between 161.60 and 163.00
Coffee price continued to form bullish waves recently, taking advantage of its consolidation within the bullish channel and 347.10 level forming new support line, to notice achieving the first main target at 367.80.
We expect the domination of the sideways bias to provide mixed waves until breaching 367.80 to open the way to record new historical gains that might extend towards 376.00 followed by reaching the bullish channel’s support line at 383.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 355.00 and 376.00
The United States grew at a slower-than-anticipated pace in the last quarter of 2024.
The December US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be out on Friday.
XAU/USD is technically bullish and could surpass the $2,800 mark in the upcoming sessions.
Spot Gold reached a fresh all-time high following the second round of first-tier events, trading as high as $2,798.53 after Wall Street’s opening. The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure after the release of tepid growth-related figures.
According to the United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, declining from the 3.1% posted in Q3 and missing expectations of 2.6%. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report also showed that the GDP Price Index rose by 2.2%, below the expected 2.5%.
Additionally, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% on a quarterly basis, matching the market consensus. Finally, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended January 24 improved to 207K from the previous 223K.
Wall Street struggled to digest the news after the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates on hold on Wednesday and failed to provide fresh clues on the monetary policy direction. Still, after the dust settled, US indexes trimmed most of their early losses and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posts modest gains, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 trade a handful of points below their Wednesday’s close.
On Friday, the focus will be on Germany, as the country will release December Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the January Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The US will publish the December PCE Price Index, but following the GDP release, the report will not be a surprise; hence, the market will post a limited reaction to the news.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows the bullish momentum is strong enough to anticipate a break through $2,800 in the upcoming sessions. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north above the longer ones while providing dynamic support at around $2,710. Technical indicators, in the meantime, resumed their advances within positive levels, approaching overbought readings yet still with room to go.
The XAU/USD 4-hour chart also supports another leg north. Technical indicators maintain their bullish slopes while entering overbought territory. Finally, the bright metal develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA gaining upward traction at around $2,758 while standing well above the 100 and 200 SMAs. The former all-time high at
The natural gas markets have rallied slightly during the trading session and the early hours of Thursday, but still, we see a lot of lack of interest. We have switched over to the March contract and that is going to have a lot to do with where we go next. Quite frankly, now that you’re in the March contract, you’re starting to think about spring. And yes, I realize it’s just now turning February, but it is a futures market. And your CFD contract that you might be trading will be following this one way or another. Sometimes it is the average price, sometimes it’s just the front month, which would be this month, March, or other times it is halfway between two contracts. You just never know what you’re getting with the CFD.
So, with that, we look at the futures market and it tells us that things are going lower. That makes sense as it is expected to be warmer than usual in the month of March in North America and by extension, somewhat the same in Europe, and if that’s going to be the case, demand for natural gas is going to fall off of a cliff. This happens every year, there’s nothing particularly unique about this, it’s just that it might be happening a little earlier than usual. So, as things stand right now, I like the idea of fading rallies, assuming we get one. Any bounce for a couple of days that shows a long wick on top of it, I’m more than willing to start shorting.
Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.
Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$
