Rising Momentum and Key Levels to Watch

Wednesday’s reversal established a higher swing low, while reaffirming dynamic support at the triangle’s lower boundary line. A rally above last week’s minor swing high at $3,375 would further confirm strength, putting the upper boundary in sight. Beyond that, $3,409 presents an intermediate hurdle. A decisive breakout above $3,439, however, would clear resistance at the top boundary and signal continuation of the broader bull trend.

The consolidation has compressed price energy, building potential for an eventual surge once a breakout occurs. Any sustained upside move should be accompanied by stronger volume and signs of momentum expansion to validate a bullish continuation.

Long-Term Support Remains Intact

Importantly, the recent pullback found support around the long-term 20-Week moving average. That level was also tested successfully in late July, confirming its role as dynamic support. It is not unusual for price to retest such a key moving average before breaking higher. This behavior adds weight to the current rebound and strengthens the argument that gold is preparing for another leg higher if resistance is overcome.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural Gas Price Forecast: NG=F Struggles at $2.75 With Downside Risks Toward $2.60 as Storage and Mild Weather Undercut Demand

Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Under Pressure After Failing at $2.88 Resistance

Natural gas futures NG=F are locked in a bearish setup, trading at $2.75 after multiple failed attempts to break above $2.88, the ceiling reinforced by the 100-day EMA. A descending trendline has capped every rally since late July, keeping bulls sidelined. The current structure shows price action pinned just above short-term support at $2.73, but momentum is weak — the RSI at 36.3 signals that sellers remain in control. Unless there is a rebound above $2.80–$2.83, markets face another leg down toward $2.67, with an extension to $2.61 if selling pressure accelerates.

Bearish Technical Formations Signal Next Stops at $2.61 and $2.39

The rejection at $3.05 earlier this week marked the neckline of a bearish reversal pattern, and the follow-through to $2.76 confirmed that control has shifted to sellers. Analysts tracking price cycles point to $2.61 as the next key station, with further downside risks toward $2.39. The trading range projected for this week is $2.61–$2.85, skewed to the downside. Negative momentum across oscillators — RSI, Stochastic, and MACD — strengthens the case for continued weakness unless a sharp volume-driven recovery develops.

Storage Levels and Seasonal Demand: Why $2.50 Is in Play

Natural gas inventories remain elevated, keeping storage buffers comfortable heading into late summer. With U.S. temperatures mild, neither air-conditioning demand nor heating demand is stressing the grid. That seasonal lull has coincided with a steep drop from early August highs, as speculative longs unwind positions in the absence of strong consumption catalysts. Traders now eye the $2.50 zone as a likely point of capitulation before the market starts to turn its attention to winter heating demand. Historically, NG=F often finds a seasonal floor in the $2.40–$2.50 band before building pre-winter rallies.

Macro Environment and Powell’s Fed Risk

The latest macro shock comes not from energy-specific data but from monetary policy fears. Ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, commodities tied to risk sentiment, including natural gas, have been pressured lower. Fears of sticky inflation — reinforced by consumer price signals and warnings from U.S. retailers like Home Depot about cost pressures — have raised the probability that the Fed delays rate cuts. For NG=F, this means speculative capital outflows as traders reduce exposure to volatile assets. In just 24 hours, natural gas lost nearly 0.73%, with the broader commodity complex in the red. If Powell signals higher-for-longer rates, expect NG=F to retest $2.61 quickly, with deeper losses possible.

Global Energy Supply and OPEC+ Dynamics Impact NG=F

While natural gas is not as directly tied to OPEC+ as crude, the broader energy complex has been dragged by production increases from OPEC+ members and Russian export flows. Oil benchmarks are down 10% month-to-date, with Brent trading at $66.44 and WTI at $62.47, and this weakness has bled into NG=F sentiment. Traders are increasingly pricing in an oversupplied global market, especially with U.S. LNG export growth failing to offset weaker domestic consumption. Until supply disruptions or unexpected geopolitical risks emerge, NG=F is vulnerable to further downside.

Medium-Term Outlook: Watching $2.95 and $3.25 for Recovery

Despite the short-term bearish tilt, the medium-term picture for NG=F is not universally negative. If buyers can force a sustained break above $2.83, it would trigger a relief rally to $2.95, followed by a retest of $3.25 — the upper boundary that would need to be cleared to shift momentum decisively. Such a breakout would require a combination of colder-than-expected September weather forecasts and stronger LNG demand. Until then, short sellers are expected to dominate every rally, with resistance layers thick between $2.80–$2.95.

Buy, Sell, or Hold? NG=F Decision Point

At $2.75, with clear bearish technical signals, comfortable storage, mild weather, and Powell risk looming, the bias remains bearish in the short term. NG=F is more likely to test $2.61 and even $2.39 before staging a seasonal recovery toward winter. Aggressive traders may see speculative opportunities near $2.50, historically a turnaround level, but without a confirmed catalyst, any long positions remain highly risky. Based on the current balance of evidence, NG=F aligns more with a Sell rating, with opportunistic buys only at deeper support zones closer to $2.50.

That’s TradingNEWS

The EURJPY pair didn’t settle above 172.00 level, affected by stochastic exit from the overbought level, forming some of the bearish correctional waves and its stability near 171.65.

The continuation of the negative pressures will force it to suffer more of the losses, to expect attacking 170.45 level, to extend the losses towards 169.80 which might form a neckline for the negative double top level, therefore, we recommend monitoring the price behavior when reaching this level to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 170.45 and 172.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

Created on August 20, 2025

Today’s Gold Analysis Overview

• The overall Gold Trend: Neutral with a downward bias.
• Gold Support Levels Today: $3310 – $3270 – $3220 per ounce.
• Gold Resistance Levels Today: $3360 – $3350 – $3410 per ounce.

Today’s Gold Trading Signals

• Buy gold from the $3290 support level, with a target of $3400 and a stop-loss at $3270.
• Sell gold from the $3370 resistance level, with a target of $3280 and a stop-loss at $3400

Technical Analysis of Gold Price (XAU/USD) Today

The gold price index has fallen to a three-week low, with losses taking it to the $3311 support level. Before this decline, we had advised on the live trading recommendations page to close the buy recommendation for gold at the current profit to avoid further selling pressure. The recent drop was fueled by the potential for easing geopolitical tensions and a rising US dollar, both weighing on the yellow metal ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium.

Yesterday, US President Trump indicated he would not deploy ground troops to Ukraine, but left open the possibility of providing air support as part of efforts to address the conflict with Russia. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy also welcomed the peace talks, but Russia has not yet confirmed its participation, creating uncertainty about the prospects for a swift resolution.

Meanwhile, amid an additional factor influencing the market, all eyes are on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, seeking guidance on the future direction of the US central bank’s policy. Later today, the release of the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to provide additional insights. Overall, market prices currently point to two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, with the first likely to occur in September.

Technical levels for gold prices today

Dear reader, based on the performance on the daily chart above, gold prices are still trending down. According to gold analysts’ expectations, bears may have the opportunity to breach the $3,300 per ounce support level if an agreement is reached to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. The US dollar gained ground in response to the Jackson Hole Symposium, and vice versa. With the recent losses, the 14-day RSI has moved around a reading of 48 below the midline, supporting bearish control and signaling a stronger downward move before the index reaches a sell-off. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator remains bearish.

Note that a break of the $3,300 support will increase technical selling activity, but at the same time, it may provide opportunities to establish a new buying base. Conversely, over the same timeframe, bulls will regain confidence in the performance if they return the gold price index to the resistance levels of $3,375 and $3,400 per ounce, respectively.

Trading Tips

Traders at TradersUp are advised to wait for gold to move towards and below the $3,300 support level before considering buying again.

Dollar price rebounds ahead of FOMC minutes

According to currency market trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of other major currencies, rose above 98.3 today, continuing its winning streak for the third consecutive session. This comes as investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting for clues on the outlook for monetary policy. The meeting was notable for being the first since 1993, with two dissenting members voting, with Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Bowman favoring a quarter-point cut in US interest rates rather than holding them steady.

Markets will now focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium for indications of whether the US central bank will resist market expectations for monetary easing. Traders currently price in an 85% chance of a September rate cut and anticipate about 54 basis points of cuts by year-end.

According to trading, the US dollar has generally strengthened, with its largest gains against the Euro, Pound Sterling, and Australian Dollar.

Ready to trade our Gold forecast? We’ve shortlisted the most trusted Gold brokers in the industry for you.

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The (silver) price continued the decline in its last intraday trading, affected by the dominance of minor bearish wave, while it moves alongside a support bias line, indicating the strength of the dominant pressure on the trading, resuming its trading below EMA50, intensifying the strength of the bearish trend.

At the same time, the negative signals come from the (RSI), despite reaching sharp oversold levels, opening the way for limited rebounding attempts on an intraday basis, but the overall technical image remains suggesting more of the downside moves unless it manages to breach critical resistance levels that turns some of the positive momentum back.

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Key Breakdown Levels

If gold breaks decisively below the triangle’s lower boundary, a bearish signal would be triggered. However, confirmation requires further weakness, specifically a decline through the higher swing low at $3,268. A close below that level would confirm a breakdown from the triangle, setting up a test of the May swing low at $3,121. That level also marks the completion of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ($3,149) measured from April’s $3,500 record high.

Broader Bearish Risks

Should $3,121 fail to hold, volatility could increase sharply, as failed consolidation patterns often lead to extended moves. Given that this triangle has formed at the top of a long-term bull trend, the expectation under normal conditions would be for an eventual upside breakout. If that does not occur, the 200-Day moving average, now at $3,043, becomes the next major downside target. Whether it is reached or not it indicates increasing seller pressure.

Alternative Bullish Scenarios

While bearish risks dominate in the short term, traders should also remain alert to the potential for false breakdowns. A reversal back into the triangle after a failed move lower could set the stage for renewed bullish momentum. A breakout above the $3,439 swing high, which helps define the triangle’s upper boundary, would confirm such a reversal and signal a return to the longer-term uptrend.

Outlook

Until gold breaks decisively beyond the symmetrical triangle boundaries, momentum is likely to remain muted. Within this consolidation phase, short-term patterns are less likely to follow through. For now, bears control the short-term picture, but both $3,268 on the downside and $3,439 on the upside remain pivotal levels for the next decisive move.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price gains marginally to near $38.00 amid caution ahead of meeting between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy.

• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September.

• Silver price wobbles near the 20-day EMA around $37.90.

Silver price (XAG/USD) edges higher to near $38.00 during the European trading session on Monday. The white metal attracts slight bids as the market sentiment is slightly cautious, with investors awaiting the meeting between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House on Monday.

US Secretary of the State Marco Rubio has confirmed that a bunch of European and NATO members are joining Trump and Zelenskyy at the White House to discuss concessions proposed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin for ending war in Ukraine.

Signs of a truce between Russia and Ukraine would be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver, which tends to perform strongly in heightened geopolitical tensions.

However, firm expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates in the September meeting continue to provide support to the Silver price. Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates in September is 82.6%. Traders have remained confident about Fed’s interest rate cuts in the policy meeting next month due to cooling labor market conditions.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price gains marginally to near $38.10 on Monday. The white metal demonstrates a sharp contraction in volatility due to the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe. The horizontal support of the above-mentioned chart pattern is plotted from the July 7 low around $36.16, while the downward-sloping border is placed from the July 23 high near $39.53.

The asset wobbles near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $37.90, suggesting a sideways trend

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecisiveness among market participants.

Looking down, the June 24 low of $35.28 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the July 23 high near $39.53 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.

Silver daily chart

Resistance Holds at Key Levels

Today’s weakness follows last Friday’s failed attempt to push higher, where resistance was met at a long-term anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) with a peak at $2.97. That test aligned closely with additional resistance near $3.00, and the 20-Day moving average, now at $2.99, which represents dynamic resistance in the broader downtrend. Any rallies from current levels are expected to face headwinds in this $2.97–$2.99 zone, keeping bears in control.

Bearish Targets Taking Shape

The breakdown has opened the path to lower targets, with $2.63 as the first level of interest. This comes from a smaller descending ABCD pattern, where symmetry between the AB and CD legs projects a 100% match at $2.63.

Confluence Zone Below $2.54

Beyond $2.63, attention shifts to a lower confluence zone between $2.54 and $2.51. Multiple technical factors point toward this region, strengthening its significance as a potential magnet for price. It includes a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 and aligns with a larger ABCD pattern, measured from this year’s peak, that projects a 78.6% downside target also at $2.54. Combined, these overlapping levels define a high-probability area where natural gas may eventually seek support if the bearish correction continues.

Outlook

With today’s continuation signal and sellers maintaining control, natural gas remains biased lower. Until the 20-Day average is reclaimed, momentum favors additional downside toward $2.63 initially, and potentially into the $2.54–$2.51 support band.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,324.34

• US President Donald Trump reported progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
• Financial markets await fresh monetary policy clues from worldwide policymakers.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh weekly lows and aims to extend its slide.

Spot Gold came under selling pressure during American trading hours, easing towards the $3,320 area. The bright metal retreated as the US Dollar (USD) gathered momentum amid fresh optimism about a resolution of the Russian Ukraine war. On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump met with the Kyiv leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and different European authorities to discuss the conditions for a peace agreement.

After the meeting, Trump reported progress and said he would help Ukraine get secure conditions for a peace deal, but excluded the country from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). He also stated the next meeting should be between Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Later, Trump offered an interview to FOX News, in which he added that he hopes Putin “will be good,” and if he’s not, it will become a “rough situation.”

Other than that, investors kept an eye on Canadian inflation data. Canada’s headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded an annual 1.7% increase in July, down from the 1.9% posted in June and matching estimates, according to Statistics Canada. The Bank of Canada (BoC) core annual CPI printed at 2.6% for the year to July, slightly below the previous 2.7%.

Market players are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes scheduled for Wednesday, and the Jackson Hole Symposium taking place this week. Policymakers’ words are closely watched for potential hints on upcoming monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair trades near an intraday low of $3,320.98, and technical readings in the daily chart show that a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps offering dynamic resistance, currently at around $3,348.00. At the same time, a bullish 100 SMA is losing its bullish strength at around $3,309.00, providing support. Finally, technical indicators diverge, as the Momentum indicator aims north above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator gains downward traction at around 45.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is bearish. The 20 SMA accelerated south below converging 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shorter, in line with increased selling interest. At the same time, technical indicators head south within negative levels, in line with lower lows ahead.

Support levels: 3,320.00 3,309.00 3,295.80

Resistance levels: 3,339.20 3,348.00 3,372.30