The continuation of the contradiction between the main indicators led to delay the negative attempts of platinum, to form some bullish corrective waves by reaching $1625.00, by the above image, we notice the stability of the trading within minor bearish channel levels, to confirm the stability of the bearish scenario by its stability below the initial resistance at $1745.00.
And that makes us wait for gathering extra negative momentum, which allows it renew the negative attempts that might target $1555.00 and $1510.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will provide extra chances for recovering more losses by its rally $1775.00 reaching the next barrier near $1855.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1515.00 and $1680.00
At 9 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $73.74 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a drop of 28 cents compared with yesterday morning and around $5.76 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$74.02
-0.37%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$97.59
-24.43%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$67.98
+8.47%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$74.02
% Change
-0.37%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$97.59
% Change
-24.43%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$67.98
% Change
+8.47%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
Nearby targets start with a 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $3,927, followed by a swing low from October at $3,886. Additionally, the midline of the descending trend channel cuts through those levels. The midline was just recently tested as support, resulting in a bounce and lower swing high. Its location adds to the potential significance of the support zone from $3,927 to $3,886.
Lower Extension Risk Still in Play
Nevertheless, a bounce from that zone may lead to a setup for a bearish continuation to the next lower 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target of $3,650. The parameters of the falling channel would also suggest that target zone could be reached. One thing is relatively clear. If gold stays below the uptrend line, it remains prone to further declines. Bearish implications from the break below the 200-day moving average in early June have come to pass and the new trendline break signals suggests a continuation of the overall bearish trend.
Resistance Thresholds Define Next Move
However, as noted above, a decisive advance above Wednesday’s high of $4,115 would trigger a daily reversal and recovery of the trendline. Trend resistance near the 20-day moving average, now near $4,248 would then be next in line to be tested as resistance. It is a potential upside barrier confirmed twice during the last two advances. Therefore, a reclaim of that average would provide the first indication that gold may continue to rise from there.
Trendline Boundary Remains the Decisive Line
Ultimately, price action remains defined by the trendline boundary: sustained trading below it keeps the bearish channel intact, while a breakout above it would shift momentum back toward a broader recovery phase.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.6% higher to near $4,050 during the European trading session on Friday. The precious metal recovers after discovering support near $3,960 in the past two trading days. The yellow metal gets some relief after a long underperformance as the US Dollar (USD) loses steam, with traders reconsidering hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets.
Technically, a correction in the US Dollar brings favorable risk-reward opportunities for the Gold price.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20. The DXY has corrected from its yearly high of 101.80 posted on Wednesday.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least two interest rate hikes this year are 41.7%, down from 50.2% seen a week ago.
Traders have trimmed hawkish Fed bets slightly as oil prices have returned to pre-war levels due to an increase in energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that would anchor global inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE), which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, accelerated to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) in May, as expected, from 3.3% in April.
Gold technical analysis
XAU/USD trades higher at around $4,050, but maintains a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,232.13. The metal has been retreating from recent highs, and the EMA now acts as overhead supply, hinting that rallies could be capped while below this barrier.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 34.63 sits just above oversold territory, suggesting negative momentum persists but with some scope for a corrective bounce.
On the topside, the March 23 low at $4,098.88 is the immediate resistance, which the Gold price needs to break for a mean-reversion move to near the 20-period EMA around $4,232. Looking down, the Gold price could extend its decline towards the October 28 low at $3,886.62 and the September 23 high at $3,791.12 if it drops below the June 24 low at $3,959.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Copper price confirmed its commitment to the corrective bearish trend by posting new negative closes below the $6.1000 barrier. The price renews the attempt of pressing on the moving average 55 by its fluctuating around $5.9500, in an attempt to find a chance to resume its decline and target the next support level at $5.7700.
Note that Stochastic continues to fluctuate within oversold levels will increase the negative pressures on the current trading, to reinforce the chances of reaching the previously suggested next target, while the attempt of renewing the bullish attempts requires surpassing $6.3000 level and holding above it.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.7700 and $6.0700
Dark roasted coffee beans with scoop by Rattanapol via Shutterstock
September arabica coffee (KCU26) today is down -3.35 (-1.21%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) is down -2 (-0.05%).
Coffee prices are moving lower today on forecasts for drier weather in Brazil next week, which should allow for the resumption of the country’s coffee harvest.
Coffee prices have moved higher this week, with robusta posting a 4-month high on Thursday and arabica posting a 7-week high on Wednesday. Recent heavy rains in Brazil have delayed the country’s coffee harvest, pushing prices higher. Meteorologist Climatempo said a cold front has supported rainfall over southern Brazil this week, with more than 50 millimeters (2 inches) expected, which has limited field activities and potentially lowered the quality of the coffee crop.
ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, which is also supportive of coffee prices. ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 385,191 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but jumped to a 2.25-month high of 4,032 lots last Thursday.
Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record. On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific. This sets the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 19-month nearest-futures low, and robusta slid to a 2-month low, amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil this year. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y. Also, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica coffee surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously. Meanwhile, Cecafe reported June 11 that Brazil’s May green coffee exports rose +4.2% y/y to 2.73 million bags.
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On June 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-May) rose by +7.9% y/y to 922,000 MT. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).
As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.
The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags. FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
No new for Platinum price since yesterday’s trading, keeping its negative stability near $1570.00 level, attempting to gather extra negative momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the negative trend by targeting $1515.00 level, reaching the main support at $1440.00.
Note that stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might force the price to delay the bearish trend and providing some corrective waves by its rally towards $1640.00, however, it will not affect the main bearish scenario, depending on forming an initial resistance at $1745.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1515.00 and $1630.00
2026.06.26 2026.06.26 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 26.06.26–03.07.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 68.75 with a target of 91.80–105.17. A buy signal: the price holds above 68.75. Stop Loss: below 67.00, Take Profit: 91.80–105.17.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below the level of 68.75 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–60.45. A sell signal: the level of 68.75 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 70.50, Take Profit: 65.00–60.45.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 68.75 with a target of 91.80–105.17.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below the level of 68.75 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–60.45.
Analysis
On the weekly chart, a descending correction (2) of larger degree has formed, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending wave (3) is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (3) of smaller degree has formed, and a downward correction has unfolded as wave 2 of (3). On the 4-hour chart, wave 3 of (3) is developing. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to increase to the levels of 91.80–105.17. The level of 68.75 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–60.45.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
No new for Platinum price since yesterday’s trading, keeping its negative stability near $1570.00 level, attempting to gather extra negative momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the negative trend by targeting $1515.00 level, reaching the main support at $1440.00.
Note that stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might force the price to delay the bearish trend and providing some corrective waves by its rally towards $1640.00, however, it will not affect the main bearish scenario, depending on forming an initial resistance at $1745.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1515.00 and $1630.00
