Crude oil price jumped for the third consecutive day, with Brent hitting a high of $83.75, up by 7.30% from its lowest level this week. This rebound happened after China boosted its oil purchases and after Iran published details of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.

China boosts oil purchases

One reason why crude oil prices have not surged during the US-Iran war is that China has largely stayed away from the market.

Now, however, there are signs that Beijing is starting to buy oil again as its strategic petroleum reserves falls. Data released today showed that pipeline and seaborne flows jumped to 35.73 million tons in July, up by 22% from a month earlier.

It imported about 8.45 million barrels of crude oil per day. While this is much lower than it used to import before the war, there is a possibility that Beijing will increase its purchases later this year.

Such a move will lead to more oil demand as the country rushes to fill its strategic petroleum reserves. This is important because China is the biggest importers of crude oil in the world.

Iran shares details of its deal with Oman

Crude oil price is also rising as investors react to the details of the Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. One notable part of the deal is that the two sides will not charge a toll for now.

However, Iran will control inbound traffic, while Oman will control the outbound one. As part of the agreement, Iran has insisted that it will not allow U.S and Israeli ships from transiting the strait. Also, countries that have harmed Iran will not be allowed to pass through the Strait until a compensation plan is made. Iran plans to impose a 20% fee for these countries.

It is unclear whether the Trump administration will endorse the deal. Also, it is unclear whether Trump will end the blockade it has placed on Iran. What is clear, however, is that the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to how it used to be in the future.

In the long-term, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will invest heavily on pipelines to avoid the Strait. Indeed, the UAE has said that it will be independent of the Strait in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Houthis have continued to attack Saudi Arabian ships and troops. They attacked a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, off the coast from the Yanbu export terminal. An escalation could have an impact on oil prices.

Most notably, the US and Iran have not yet reached a ceasefire agreement, meaning that the war may resume at any time. Iran may also use the latest reports on US weapons to restart the war and put more pressure on Trump.  https://twitter.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2085433285602136467

Brent crude oil price forecast

Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that Brent crude price peaked at $101.9 in July and then plunged to a low of $78.30 as Trump and Iran restarted their war. Recently, it bounced back to $83.70, which coincides with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

The price has moved above the Ultimate Support of the Murrey Math Lines level of $75. Therefore, the price will likely continue rising in the near term, potentially to the Major S/R pivot point of $100. A drop below the support of $78 will invalidate the bullish outlook.

BitcoinWorld

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Extends Rally, Bulls Set Sights on $4,380

Gold prices extended their upward move on Thursday, with XAU/USD trading firmer as bulls target the $4,380 area, according to the latest technical outlook. The precious metal has shown resilience amid mixed economic signals, and market participants are closely watching key resistance levels.

What’s Driving the Gold Rally?

The current rally in gold is underpinned by a combination of factors, including persistent geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance from major central banks. As of this week, spot gold has gained momentum, breaking above previous consolidation ranges. Traders are now focusing on whether the bulls can sustain the push toward the $4,380 level, which represents a significant psychological and technical barrier.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that gold has formed a series of higher lows, indicating strong buying interest on dips. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside. A clear break above the $4,380 area could open the door for a test of the next resistance zone, while failure to do so might lead to a short-term pullback toward support levels.

Market Context and Implications

The broader market context remains supportive for gold, as real yields stay low and inflation concerns persist in several economies. Additionally, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been diversifying their reserves into gold, providing a solid demand base. This backdrop has attracted both institutional and retail investors looking for a safe-haven asset amid volatility in equity markets and currency fluctuations.

For traders, the key levels to watch are the immediate support at $4,300, followed by the $4,250 zone, which could act as a buffer in case of a correction. On the upside, a sustained move above $4,380 would confirm the bullish momentum and could lead to accelerated buying, potentially pushing prices toward the $4,420–$4,450 region. However, market participants should remain cautious, as any unexpected economic data or policy shift could quickly alter the outlook.

Why This Matters to Investors

Understanding the gold price forecast is crucial for investors who use gold as a hedge against inflation or currency depreciation. The current rally reflects a broader trend of risk aversion and portfolio diversification. If gold breaks above $4,380, it could signal further gains, making it an opportune time for investors to review their positions. Conversely, a rejection at this level might suggest a consolidation phase, prompting a more cautious approach.

Conclusion

Gold’s rally continues to gain traction, with bulls eyeing the $4,380 level as the next major target. While the technical and fundamental backdrop remains supportive, traders should monitor key economic releases and geopolitical developments for potential volatility. A clear breakout above $4,380 could confirm the bullish trend, but until then, caution is advised.

FAQs

Q1: What is the current gold price target?
The current upside target for XAU/USD is the $4,380 area, as per the latest technical analysis. This level represents a key resistance zone that bulls are aiming to break.

Q2: What factors are driving the gold rally?
The rally is driven by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and expectations of looser monetary policy. Low real yields and inflation concerns also support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Q3: What happens if gold fails to break $4,380?
If gold fails to break above $4,380, it could lead to a short-term pullback toward support levels at $4,300 or $4,250. Traders may then look for a consolidation pattern before the next directional move.

This post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Extends Rally, Bulls Set Sights on $4,380 first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

For now, the 100-day moving average presents key resistance that could lead to a pullback or consolidation. However, the next higher target is defined by the 200-day moving average, now near $4,496. It represents a more significant resistance zone given its long-term timeframe and therefore may be tested before the current advance reaches its conclusion. The path toward that higher target, however, may depend on how gold responds to the initial resistance near $4,392.

Trendline Recovery Strengthens the Bullish Case

Friday’s extension of the rally confirmed a recovery above the long-term uptrend line that had shown signs of resistance over the past couple of days. A recovery above the trendline is another piece of bullish technical evidence for gold. It follows the recent reclaim of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a breakout above a downtrend line, and a trend reversal signal on a move above the lower swing high at $4,203. Together, these developments strengthen the case that the broader trend has shifted back in favor of the bulls.

Next Test: $4,382-$4,392

Near-term support is Friday’s low of $4,230, especially since it aligns closely near the uptrend line, followed by the lower swing high at $4,203. Key dynamic support is indicated by the 50-day moving average near $4,152. The magnitude of any pullback will assist in gauging demand, and it may determine whether the 200-day moving average is tested, if it doesn’t occur during this initial sharp advance.

Thus, Friday’s strong close not only reinforces the recent bullish reversal but also sets up the next test: whether buyers can push through the $4,382-$4,392 resistance zone without a meaningful pullback, keeping the higher $4,496 target in view.

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

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