The GBPJPY pair failed to resume the bearish correctional attack, affected by forming an obstacle at 66.8%Fibonacci correction level at 198.80, forcing it to provide mixed trading by its stability near 199.90.

Note that regaining bullish bias will be by breaching the resistance at 200.65, while holding below it and stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level confirms the dominance of the sideways bias in the current period, to expect the trading confinement between the mentioned main levels, to keep monitoring the price behavior to confirm the trend by surpassing these levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.85 and 200.60

Trend forecast: Sideways

(Brent) price declined in its last trading on the intraday levels, amid its trading alongside a minor bearish trend line, indicating the dominance of this negative track, especially with the continuation of the negative track, especially with the continuation of the negative pressure, due to its trading below EMA50, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels.

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(Brent) price declined in its last trading on the intraday levels, amid its trading alongside a minor bearish trend line, indicating the dominance of this negative track, especially with the continuation of the negative track, especially with the continuation of the negative pressure, due to its trading below EMA50, besides the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels.

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• Gold price drifts lower to near $3,330 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Unexpectedly strong US economic data weigh on the Gold price, but safe-haven demand might cap its downside. 
• Traders brace for the Trump and Zelenskiy meeting later on Monday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to around $3,330 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal edges lower after unexpectedly strong US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Investors will closely monitor a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy later on Monday for further developments.

Hotter-than-expected PPI inflation data released on Thursday prompted traders to trim wagers on rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, which creates a headwind for the yellow metal. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 3.3% YoY in July, versus the 2.4% increase prior. This reading came in stronger than the expectations of 2.5% by a wide margin.

Furthermore, data released by the US Census Bureau on Friday showed that the US Retail Sales increased by 0.5%  MoM in July, versus a rise of 0.9% seen in June (revised from 0.6%). This reading came in line with the market consensus.  

However, the cautious mood in the market might boost the safe-haven flows and help limit gold’s losses. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that US special envoy Steve Witkoff said that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Ukraine security pledges. 

Witkoff further stated that the deal did not enable Ukraine to achieve its goal of NATO membership, as Russia objected to NATO admission. Gold traders will take more cues from the Trump and Zelenskiy meeting later in the day as details from the US-Russia talks remain unclear.  

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot average crude oil price forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on August 12.

According to that STEO, the EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $67.22 per barrel this year and $51.43 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in July, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.89 per barrel in 2025 and $58.48 per barrel in 2026.

The EIA revealed in its latest STEO that it sees the Brent spot price average coming in at $67.40 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $58.05 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $49.97 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $49.67 per barrel in the second quarter, $52 per barrel in the third quarter, and $54 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In its previous July STEO, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $68.02 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025, $64.02 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $60 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $59 per barrel in the second quarter, $58 per barrel in the third quarter, and $57 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Both STEOs highlighted that the Brent spot price averaged $80.56 per barrel in 2024.

“Significant growth in oil supply will cause crude oil prices to fall in the coming months,” the EIA warned in its August STEO.  

“In our forecast, the Brent crude oil spot price falls from $71 per barrel in July to $58 per barrel in 4Q25 and $49 per barrel in March and April 2026,” it added.

“On August 3, OPEC+ members again agreed to accelerate their scheduled production increases. The 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts announced in November 2023 and initially scheduled to be fully unwound by September 2026 will now be fully unwound by September of this year,” the EIA pointed out in its STEO.

“We expect this increase will contribute to large inventory builds through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices,” it continued.

In its STEO, the EIA said it now forecasts global liquid fuels production will rise by 2.0 million barrels per day on average in the second half of 2025, compared with the first half of the year.

“OPEC+ will contribute half of this increase. Non-OPEC producers led by the United States, Brazil, Norway, Canada, and Guyana provide the other half,” the EIA said in the STEO.

“At the same time, we expect global liquid fuels demand in 2H25 will be up 1.6 million barrels per day from the first six months of the year, meaning the pace at which oil is put into inventory will accelerate by almost 0.5 million barrels per day in 2H25,” it added.

“With inventories already building at a rate of 1.4 million barrels per day in 1H25, we now expect inventories will build by 1.9 million barrels per day in 2H25 and 2.3 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026,” it continued.

“During similar periods when global inventory builds exceeded one million barrels per day for a sustained time period – including 2020, 2015, and 1998 – crude oil prices declined by 25 percent – 50 percent from the previous year,” it went on to state.

The EIA noted in its August STEO that inventory builds of this size will cause market participants to seek increasingly expensive options for storing crude oil.

“As available commercial storage on land fills, other methods such as floating storage or strategic stock building might be increasingly used to match large imbalances between supply and demand,” the EIA said.

“In this case, crude oil prices will fall to reflect the higher marginal cost of storage,” it pointed out.

The EIA went on to state in its STEO that it expects that prices dropping below $50 per barrel will cause some producers to reduce supply.

“Particularly, we expect that OPEC+ will reduce crude oil production by 0.2 million barrel per day in 2026 compared with 4Q25. Some non-OPEC countries that rely on supply from short-investment cycles will also see oil production drop,” the EIA said.

“Most notable among these countries is the United States, where we expect annual average crude oil production in 2026 will decrease 0.1 million barrels per day on average from the record in 2025,” it added.

Falling oil prices will also cause a small increase in demand in 2026, the EIA noted in its August STEO.

“Combined with the slowdown in supply, we expect inventory builds will moderate slightly. Inventory builds in our forecast fall to near one million barrels per day in 2H26, which we expect will push the Brent price back to an average of $54 per barrel in 4Q26,” it added.

The EIA warned in its STEO that “significant uncertainty” is still present in its price forecast.

A report sent to Rigzone on Tuesday by the Standard Chartered team showed that Standard Chartered is projecting that the ICE Brent nearby future crude oil price will average $61 per barrel in 2025 and $78 per barrel in 2026.

In that report, the company predicted that the commodity will average $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, $71 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $76 per barrel in the second quarter, $81 per barrel in the third quarter, and $83 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

A J.P. Morgan research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team on Monday showed that J.P. Morgan sees the Brent crude price averaging $66 per barrel this year and $58 per barrel next year.

J.P. Morgan projected in that note that the commodity will average $63 per barrel in the third quarter, $61 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $55 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $57 per barrel across the second and third quarters, and $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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20-Week Moving Average Adds to Support Confluence

The lower boundary of the triangle is reinforced by the 20-week moving average (not shown), now at $3,310 on the weekly chart. This average was reclaimed in early January and has since acted as potential dynamic support. In July, it aligned with a swing low that sparked a bullish weekly reversal and proved itself as a support line.

This alignment creates a significant confluence of support between $3,303 and $3,310. A clean break below both the lower boundary and the 20-week moving average would carry greater weight, potentially triggering a stronger downside reaction. In that case, a test of the May swing lows and the 38.2% retracement would become increasingly likely, and the odds of falling below that zone would rise.

Pattern Approaches Decision Point

Gold’s price action remains confined within a tightening consolidation, with each swing high and low narrowing toward the triangle’s apex. This suggests that a resolution — either bullish or bearish — is approaching.

On the upside, a breakout is triggered on a move above the $3,438 swing high. Such a move would signal bullish trend continuation and could pave the way for a retest of $3,500. On the downside, the first trigger is a drop through the lower boundary line, followed by a break below $3,268 to confirm a bearish breakout. Until then, gold’s consolidation reflects a market in balance, but the proximity to major technical levels hints that this balance may not hold much longer.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Four Straight Weeks of Lower Highs and Lows

Friday’s bounce has not changed the bigger picture. Natural gas will log a fourth consecutive week of lower weekly highs and lows, highlighting persistent selling pressure. A bearish continuation signal triggered this week as prices fell through the April swing low. That decline also pierced a long-term support zone where an anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) from the 2024 trend low converged with a long-term uptrend line. This line formed the lower boundary of an ascending parallel trend channel, giving the breakdown added significance.

Bearish Targets Remain in Play

Support near the AVWAP level at $2.96 held for several weeks but failed to produce a meaningful rally. With the breakdown confirmed, downside targets remain intact. Below this week’s trend low of $2.764, the next potential target sits at $2.79, completing a 100% projection of a falling ABCD pattern. This would match the size of the second downswing to the first. If weakness extends further, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $2.54 becomes the next major level to watch, and given the strength of recent bearish signals, this deeper target is possible.

Resistance Zone Capped by 20-Day MA

The 20-Day moving average is accelerating lower and is close to crossing beneath the long-term uptrend line. At $3.04, it marks the top of a potential resistance zone starting at the AVWAP line near $2.96. Resistance was seen today at the bottom of that $2.96–$3.04 band and it may serve as a key pivot area where sellers could reassert control, keeping the prevailing downtrend intact. Also, the top of the range would be a upside target for now if today’s bullish price action can continue in the short-term.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• XAG/USD up 1.63% as US 10-year yields tumble due to rate-cut bets pressuring the Dollar.
• Price hits $38.65, clearing last higher-high; next resistance at $39.00, then YTD high of $39.53.
• Downside risks if $38.00 fails, with supports at $37.50 and $36.21.

Silver price rises over 1.63% on Wednesday, boosted by broad US Dollar weakness as traders had fully priced in a rate cut by the Federal Reserve at next month’s meeting.

Consequently, US Treasury yields, which correlated inversely with XAG/USD, tumbled with the 10-year benchmark note, down five basis points at 4.236%. At the time of writing, the grey metal trades at $38.53, after bouncing off daily lows of $37.85.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver price uptrend remains intact, hitting a three-week high of $38.65 with buyers clearing the last higher-high ahead of challenging the $39.00, with them eyeing the YTD peak of $39.53. From a price action standpoint, if those two levels are cleared, the grey metal could test $40.00 in the near term.

Momentum is bullish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Nevertheless, if something goes wrong, XAG/USD’s drop below $38.00 could put buyers under stress, and bears could challenge the latest cycle low of $37.50, the August 12 low. If cleared, the next area of interest would be the July 31 swing low of $36.21.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

• Gold price regains some positive traction following the previous day’s slump to a two-week low.
• Strong US PPI-inspired USD recovery falters amid Fed rate cut bets and supports the commodity.
• The upbeat market mood could cap the safe-haven XAU/USD pair ahead of the US macro data.

Gold attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Friday and stalls the previous day’s retracement slide from the $3,375 region. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to capitalize on Thursday’s strong US Producer Price Index (PPI)-inspired recovery move from the vicinity of its lowest level since July 28, and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the precious metal.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline PPI accelerated from the 2.4% YoY rate to 3.3% in July, surpassing expectations of a 2.5% by a wide margin. This overshadows the relatively cooler July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Tuesday and suggests that a broad pickup in inflation was imminent. Traders were quick to react and trimmed their bets for a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, triggered an intraday USD short-covering and weighed on the non-yielding Gold.

The USD recovery momentum, however, runs out of steam as traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in September. Furthermore, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates the possibility of two 25-basis-point (bps) Fed rate cuts by the end of this year. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and turns out to be a key factor that helps revive demand for Gold. However, the prevalent risk-on environment could act as a headwind for the safe-haven commodity.

An extension of the US-China tariff truce for another three months eased concerns about a full-blown trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Moreover, investors remain hopeful that the US-Russian summit this Friday will increase the chances of ending the prolonged war in Ukraine. This remains supportive of the bullish sentiment across the global financial markets. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move for the Gold price.

Friday’s US economic docket – featuring the release of Monthly Retail Sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, followed by the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Index. This, along with speeches by influential FOMC members, could offer fresh cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, should provide some impetus to the Gold price later during the North American session. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register heavy losses for the first time in the previous three weeks.

Gold 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight sustained break and acceptance below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour charts was seen as a key trigger for the XAU/USD bears. Moreover, slightly negative oscillators on hourly/daily charts suggest that any further move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the 100-hour SMA, currently pegged near the $3,355 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter, however, could trigger a short-covering move and lift the Gold beyond the overnight swing high, around the $3,375 zone, towards reclaiming the $3,400 mark.

On the flip side, the two-week low, near the $3,330 area, now seems to have emerged as a strong support and should protect the immediate downside. Some follow-through selling could make the Gold vulnerable to accelerate the fall further towards the $3,3,00 round figure. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which, if broken decisively, could negate any near-term positive bias and shift the bias in favor of the XAU/USD bears. This should pave the way for a fall towards the $3,272-$3,270 horizontal support, representing the lower boundary of a nearly three-month-old trading range.