• Gold holds the pullback early Thursday, having renewed record highs at $3,708 in a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed announcement.
• US Dollar recovers on Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on further policy easing.
• Gold retreats from extreme overbought conditions on the daily chart, keeping buying interest alive.  

Gold is licking its wounds near $3,650 in Thursday’s Asian trades, having stalled its pullback from fresh record highs of $3,707 reached in an initial reaction to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.  

Gold assesses Fed’s interest rate outlook ahead of data

Gold witnessed intense volatility during the Fed event on Wednesday, initially spiking to a new lifetime high before falling as low as $3,646 to settle the day just above $3,650.

Fed delivered on the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot chart, showed that the Fed policymakers project two additional rate cuts this year.

Markets read this as dovish and smashed the US Dollar (USD) across the board, spiking up Gold to new record highs.

However, the Greenback staged an impressive comeback alongside US Treasury bond yields after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy meeting press conference, adopted a measured rhetoric on further policy easing.

Powell signaled caution on future rate cut outlook by saying that “the policy action as a risk-management cut in response to the weakening labour market and the central bank is in a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ situation,” per Reuters.

The resurgent USD demand and the Fed’s restraint triggered a pullback in the non-yielding Gold.

Traders are now pricing in a 87.7% chance of another 25 bps cut at the Fed’s October meeting, compared to a 74.3% probability a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

With the dovish expectations surrounding the Fed still intact, any downside in Gold is likely to be seen as a good bargain-buying opportunity, keeping the uptrend alive.

Markets now look forward to the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data for fresh trading impetus.

Additionally, geopolitical headlines and US President Donald Trump’s commentary could also play their part in driving Gold price action in the sessions ahead.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold buyers seem to be given another chance for a sustained uptrend as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has finally eased considerably from the extreme overbought zone, from 80 to 72 levels, as of writing.

If dip-buying emerges and gathers strength, Gold could retest the record high at $3,708. A daily candlestick closing above that level will open doors toward the $3,750 region.

However, Gold could challenge this week’s low at $3,627 if the corrective decline extends.

Further down, the $3,600 round figure will be tested, below which the previous week’s low of $3,578 will be next on sellers’ radars.

The GBPAUD confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario by providing positive close above the support of the bullish channel at 2.0260, taking advantage of providing positive momentum by stochastic, to notice its rally towards 2.0610, attempting to surpass 23.6%Fibonacci correction level.

The continuation of facing the positive pressures will ease the mission of surpassing the moving average 55 near 2.0610, opening the way for recording several gains that might extend towards 2.0695 and 2.0765.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0465 and 2.0610

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price is affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bullish attack by reaching below $1400,00, to provide mixed trading to keep its stability main stability above the critical support at $1355.00.

We expect the continuation of forming mixed trading until gathering the positive momentum, to pave the way for holding above $1400.00, to begin recording extra gains that might begin at $1435.00, while the decline below the critical support and holding below it will force the price to activate the negative track, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $1315.00 and $1300.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1355.00 and $1395.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

Rising But Cautious Momentum

Although gold notched another record on Tuesday, momentum had already been showing signs of fatigue, reflected in a narrow-range session despite the breakout. Price remains within a resistance zone defined by multiple technical markers and prior hesitation around the $3,675 level. From the $3,311 swing low in late July, gold advanced by $396, or nearly 12%, with only three brief one-day pullbacks along the way. While this reflects strong demand, it also raises the risk that the market may be due for a deeper corrective phase, until recently when there were two days of lower highs and lower lows.

Short-Term Support Under Pressure

For most of its advance, gold has held above its rising 8-Day moving average, currently at $3,651. That price area was successfully tested today with the day’s low of $3,646. A decisive close below today’s low would also represent a break beneath the 8-Day average, signaling short-term weakness. Furthermore, a decline through Monday’s low of $3,627 would add further downside confirmation as that day’s low also found support around the 8-Day average.

Key Downside and Upside Levels

Should sellers press their advantage, support levels to monitor include last week’s low at $3,576 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,557. The 20-Day moving average, now rising at $3,532, may align with that retracement and may serve as the next dynamic support. On the other hand, if bulls regain control with a decisive rally above today’s $3,707 high, upside targets reemerge at $3,734, followed by a confluence zone between $3,782 and $3,812.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,687.07

• The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time in 2025.
• US President Donald Trump is likely to add noise to the Fed’s decision.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its record rally, in pause ahead of Fed’s decision.

Gold prices stand near the recent record high at $3,703.20 a troy ounce,  trimming early losses. The US Dollar (USD) found some modest demand throughout the first half of the day, but gave it up as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision looms. The central bank is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a two-day meeting, delivering the first interest rate cut for this 2025.

The Fed is ready to drop the hawkish stance adopted earlier in the year, when United States (US) President Donald Trump announced his massive world-spread tariffs. Chair Jerome Powell and co. Noted the potential upward risks to inflation associated with trade levies, and decided to pause their loosening cycle ahead of more clarity.

President Trump has claimed multiple times that the Fed’s decision to keep rates at high levels damages the American economy, and came to the point of threatening to fire Powell, despite the fact that he can not do so. Calling Powell names and firing and suing other Fed officials have been part of Trump’s pressure strategy.

Anyway, the day comes when the Fed is widely anticipated to deliver, but the question is what. The Fed will hardly go for something different from what is actually priced in. The question is what officials would do from now on. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot will paint a clearer picture of whether policymakers plan to cut rates two times this year, as previously reported, or if they will go for three, as the market believes.

If the SEP keeps showing two interest rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, that would be considered hawkish, while three this year and two the next one, will confirm what the market anticipates and lean to the dovish side.

Once the Fed makes its announcement, it would be interesting to see what President Trump has to say about it. Most likely, Trump will stick to his view that Powell is moving too slowly and too late.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Ahead of the announcement, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it trades around its opening level, still largely overbought. Technical indicators turned flat within extreme levels, but are far from signaling an upcoming slide. At the same time, the pair is far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north at around $3,530 while further extending its advance above the 100 and 200 SMAs.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD bounced after briefly piercing a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators recovered their upward slopes after correcting overbought readings, in line with additional gains ahead. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated north far below the shorter one, also supporting an upward continuation.

 Support levels: 3,670.20 3,657.30 3,642.00

Resistance levels: 3,705.00 3,720.00 3,735.00

The EURJPY pair took advantage of the extra positive momentum due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, noticing by the above image the price attempt to breach the barrier at 173.50, to confirm the continuation of the positivity that depends on the stability of the trading within the main bullish channel levels that appears in the above image.

The price should provide new positive close above the current barrier, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations that are located near 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level near 175.20, while the price return to settle below the current barrier will force it to activate the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 172.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.00 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair took advantage of the extra positive momentum due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, noticing by the above image the price attempt to breach the barrier at 173.50, to confirm the continuation of the positivity that depends on the stability of the trading within the main bullish channel levels that appears in the above image.

The price should provide new positive close above the current barrier, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations that are located near 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level near 175.20, while the price return to settle below the current barrier will force it to activate the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 172.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.00 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the weak trading of Platinum price recently, its stability above the moving average 55 reinforces the stability of the extra support at $1382.00, besides stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, these factors assist confirming the continuation of the positivity, to keep waiting for breaching the obstacle of $1408,00 to ease the mission of achieving the main targets that begin at $1435.00.

The risk of changing the main trend is represented by attempting to break the critical support at $1355.00, forcing it to form strong bearish waves, to expect reaching $1302.00 initially reaching to 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00. 

The expected trading range for today is between $1375.00 and $1425.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Face Diverging Pressures as Oversupply Meets Geopolitical Risk

Oil markets remain in a tight tug-of-war between oversupply signals and the slow rebuilding of a geopolitical risk premium. WTI crude (CL=F) is holding near $63.86 per barrel, up 0.96% on the day, while Brent (BZ=F) trades at $67.74, adding 0.77%. Both benchmarks have rallied from last week’s lows, but upside momentum is capped by projections of a supply glut into 2026, with Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent could slump below $55 per barrel next year on the back of a 1.8 million barrels per day surplus.

EIA Data Highlights U.S. Stock Drawdowns and Resilient Demand

U.S. government data showed commercial crude inventories fell by 2.4 million barrels in the week ending August 22, extending a prior draw of 6 million barrels, leaving stockpiles at 418.3 million barrels—around 6% below the five-year average. Gasoline inventories slipped another 1.2 million barrels, while distillates fell 1.8 million barrels, now 15% below their seasonal norms. Refineries are producing 10 million barrels per day of gasoline and 5.2 million barrels of distillates, indicating that U.S. demand, which averaged 21.2 million bpd over the past month, remains higher by 2.5% year over year. This domestic strength has helped WTI avoid steeper losses despite global bearish forecasts.

China’s Oil Giants Post Record Output but Weak Profits as Brent Averages $71

China’s three state-run majors—CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec—have all reported profit declines despite record upstream production. CNOOC booked $9.7 billion in first-half 2025 profit, down 13% YoY, even as output surged to 384.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, a 6.1% increase with gas production up 12%. PetroChina reported a 5.4% decline in earnings, while Sinopec posted a staggering 36% slump, both blaming lower refining margins and weaker domestic fuel demand tied to the rise of electric vehicles. The fall in average Brent prices from $83 per barrel in H1 2024 to $71 in H1 2025 underpinned the earnings squeeze.

Kazakhstan Pipeline Halt and Russia-Ukraine Conflict Complicate Flows

Kazakhstan confirmed disruptions in shipments through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline after contamination issues in Azeri crude forced a halt in July. Exports via this route had climbed 12% YoY in H1 2025 to 785,000 tons, around 34,000 bpd, and resuming clean flows is critical for landlocked Kazakhstan, which relies on BTC to bypass Russian ports. Meanwhile, drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure and ongoing tariff disputes between Washington and New Delhi add layers of uncertainty to supply chains. Trump’s tariffs on Indian imports, set to take effect this week, could alter Russian crude flows and reshape global pricing dynamics if India is forced to source more barrels from the Middle East.

OPEC+ Balancing Act: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and India’s Role

OPEC’s basket price stands at $70.45, while Saudi Arabia continues to lead output policy with Russia. Despite output cuts, Russia is still moving product aggressively, with Saudi Arabia and India emerging as top buyers of Russian fuel oil. Kazakhstan exceeded its OPEC+ quota in July, producing 1.827 million bpd versus its ceiling of 1.514 million bpd, underscoring the difficulty in enforcing compliance among members. The cartel faces mounting pressure as supply continues to climb globally while demand signals remain mixed, particularly in Asia where growth in petroleum product demand has slowed to zero according to Kpler data.

Technical Signals Show $62–65 as Key Range for WTI and $65–69 for Brent

Chart analysis highlights that WTI is locked in a trading band with resistance near $65 per barrel and support around $62, coinciding with its 50-day EMA ceiling. Brent crude faces a similar sideways structure, capped by resistance at $69 and support at $65. Liquidity is consolidating in these ranges as traders weigh supply-driven weakness against bursts of risk premium whenever geopolitical shocks hit. Hedge funds and speculators have cut bullish bets on crude to their lowest level in 16 years, signaling widespread skepticism that prices can sustain above current levels without a significant geopolitical trigger.

Goldman Sachs and Market Outlook: Risk of Sub-$55 Oil vs. 2026 Bull Cycle

While Goldman warns of Brent falling to the low $50s by 2026, fund managers like Eric Nuttall see the oversupply period setting the stage for a rebound later that year, driven by capex constraints and depletion of shale productivity. The International Energy Agency projects supply growth of 2.1 million bpd in 2025, with demand climbing only 700,000 bpd, cementing a surplus of 1.4 million bpd this year. Still, China’s crude imports are ticking higher sequentially, U.S. demand remains robust, and structural underinvestment in long-cycle projects could eventually reverse the trend.

Verdict: Oil (CL=F, BZ=F) Rated Hold Amid Conflicting Forces

With WTI at $63.86 and Brent at $67.74, oil prices are caught between short-term oversupply and medium-term bullish structural narratives. Inventories are tightening in the U.S. and geopolitical shocks keep adding floor support, but the macro balance tilts bearish with OPEC+ struggling to enforce quotas and analysts projecting sub-$55 Brent in 2026. Given this split picture, oil remains a Hold, with trading ranges dominating until either demand reaccelerates or supply is curbed more aggressively.

That’s TradingNEWS

Resistance Levels in Focus

If upward pressure continues, the first major resistance comes into view at $3,734, derived from a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bearish correction. However, a more significant upside target range sits between $3,782 and $3,812. That zone is backed by a confluence of technical levels, adding weight to its importance. Within it, the $3,786 measuring objective comes from the symmetrical triangle breakout earlier this month, while a measured move projection completes at $3,812.

The recent symmetrical triangle followed a sharp $543, or 18%, rally from the July swing low at $3,268. If replicated, that advance aligns closely with the $3,812 target, suggesting bulls may still have room to extend higher before a deeper pullback develops.

Short-Term Structure and Risks

Yesterday’s breakout also cleared a minor resistance zone that capped gold for much of last week. The move higher was confirmed by a breakout from a small bull pennant visible on intraday charts, a continuation pattern that reinforces bullish positioning.

For the short term, the outlook remains constructive as long as gold’s price holds above today’s $3,675 low. A drop below that level, followed by weakness under Monday’s $3,627 low, would raise the risk of a broader pullback. Until then, the bullish bias remains intact, with buyers holding the upper hand and keeping the focus on the higher resistance cluster above $3,780.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.