Created on January 01, 2026

The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market.

Crude Oil

Crude oil markets have been generally negative during December as we continue to pay close attention to a downtrend line. But perhaps more importantly, I think we’re going to continue to pay a lot of attention to the $55 level. The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market, and I think that continues to be a major battleground.

Whether or not we can break down below, there is still a question that remains to be answered, but I would not be surprised at all to see more of the same action in January that we have seen in both November and December. Quite frankly, the only sign of life in this market over the last couple of months has been due to new sanctions against Russia. And that bullish behavior was squashed almost immediately.

Major Resistance

This has shown that the $62 level is a major resistance barrier that I think is going to take some type of external pressure to break above. I also believe that January will end up being fairly weak from a cyclical standpoint as well, as typically speaking, January is somewhat soft. All things being equal, I think that January will behave in the same way we have seen the oil market behave in general, that anytime we get some type of rally, you’re looking to sell the first signs of exhaustion.

I do not want to get long of oil anytime soon because we do have massive amounts of supply coming out of Guyana and the United States, just to name a couple of places. In other words, the market is awash in oil, and therefore, it’s counterintuitive to think that prices will rise anytime soon. Yes, there will be more sanctions against Russia, would be my bet, but really, at the end of the day, Russian oil still ends up in Europe and Asia, and to a lesser extent, even the United States. So, it’s all a shell game. We have plenty of oil out there. I think we continue to see a lot of overhang as far as selling pressure is concerned.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

10-Day Average Flip Confirms Bearish Behavior

Conversely, Monday’s sharp bearish retracement to a seven-day low that included a breakdown below the 10-day average. There was a chance that the 10-day average would show signs of support but instead Tuesday’s high successfully tested resistance at the 10-day line, confirming a flip from support to resistance. That is bearish behavior. In addition, a narrow range inside day inverted hammer pattern formed below the 10-day average and in the lower third of Monday’s trading range. That is also bearish behavior, which confirmed today with a breakdown from that inside day, followed by further bearish signs.

Monthly Structure Adds Downside Pressure

This puts gold at a critical support zone that is at risk of failure. The monthly chart adds to that risk, as it shows overhead supply keeping downward pressure on prices. A potentially bearish monthly shooting star candlestick pattern has formed for December. The low for the month and therefore a key pivot is December’s low of $4,164. This is interesting since a sustained drop below today’s low puts gold in a position to challenge support near the 50-day average, now at $4,174, above this month’s low.

50-Day Average Marks Critical Defense Zone

Keep in mind that the potentially bearish monthly pattern is not valid until there is a breakdown below December’s low. Until then strong support is anticipated near the 50-day line, now at $4,175. But given the bearish monthly pattern, new trend highs in January seems unlikely, and an inside month more likely.

Bullish Reversal Requires Key Levels to Reclaim

Alternatively, if support holds near the 20-day average and is followed by bullish signs, the long-term bull trend could reassert itself as a short-term pullback completes. It is interesting to note that Wednesday’s weakness shows a break below the near-term uptrend line, adding to potential downside risk. A sustained advance above today’s high of $4,373 would show a one-day bullish reversal and the potential for further upside.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dominion Energy, Inc. (D) declined in its latest intraday trading, amid continued negative and dynamic pressure from trading below its 50-period simple moving average. This comes while a corrective bearish wave dominates the short term, following the stock’s earlier break of a main ascending trendline. In addition, a bearish crossover is beginning to appear on the RSI after reaching extremely overbought levels.

 

Therefore we expect the stock price to decline further in the upcoming trading sessions, as long as resistance at $60.25 holds, to target the support level at $57.55.

 

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

Lower High Signals Second Leg Down

Given Monday’s sharp bearish reversal following a successful test of resistance near the 20-day average the price of natural gas remains under pressure. The reversal generated a lower daily high at $4.59, likely putting an end to the counter-trend rally. Monday’s decline to a lower retracement low shows the potential for a second leg down from the $5.50 trend high reached earlier this month. Symmetry in price between the two downswings is reached at $2.89, providing a potential downside target. However, to reach that lower price level higher key potential support levels would need to fail first.

Fibonacci Support Defines Next Downside Targets

Support for the retracement has been seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone of $3.89, and the top boundary line of a rising trend channel. If a sustained decline triggers below the current low of $3.79, the 61.8% support zone will have failed. Based on Fibonacci analysis, the next lower target would then be $3.45, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. However, the potentially significant 200-day moving average is a little higher, at $3.57 currently.

200-Day Average Becomes Key Support Focus

The current bearish correction is the first pullback towards the 200-day line since it was reclaimed in late-October. Resistance near the 200-day line was seen during two periods in October prior to the upside breakout. So, the expectation is for signs of support to occur near or above the 200-day average if the bearish correction continues to lower prices. If not, the price area around the 78.6% level becomes a key area for support to be seen. Depending on when the lower Fibonacci level is reached, a lower rising channel line might also assist in identify areas of dynamic support.

Broadening Range is Alternative Scenario

An alternative scenario is that last week’s outside week shows the potential for a broadening formation to evolve as price consolidates. If so, additional consolidation within a range from around today’s low of $3.79 and up to last week’s high of $4.59.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price repeatedly forming weak trading, attempting to surpass stochastic negativity by its fluctuation above EMA50 at $5.5100, the continuation of the sideways bias dominance is expected until gathering the required bullish momentum to resume the bullish attack and achieving extra gains by its rally towards $5.8000 reaching the next resistance at $5.9700.

 

While the decline below the current support will force it to delay the bullish attack and form bearish waves, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.3200 followed by the base of the next sport at 5.1500 level.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.5500 and $5.8000

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price repeatedly forming weak trading, attempting to surpass stochastic negativity by its fluctuation above EMA50 at $5.5100, the continuation of the sideways bias dominance is expected until gathering the required bullish momentum to resume the bullish attack and achieving extra gains by its rally towards $5.8000 reaching the next resistance at $5.9700.

 

While the decline below the current support will force it to delay the bullish attack and form bearish waves, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching $5.3200 followed by the base of the next sport at 5.1500 level.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.5500 and $5.8000

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

Gold, silver, and copper ended 2025 with notable volatility and strong year-to-date gains, reflecting a combination of market demand, supply constraints, and global economic shifts. Gold is trading at $4,400.72 per ounce as of December 30, supported by Federal Reserve rate cuts, softer dollar conditions, and steady central bank buying. Investors continue to view gold as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although some profit-taking has introduced short-term fluctuations.

Silver reached $77 per ounce, recovering slightly after a dramatic “flash crash” that saw prices plunge from $84 to below $73 in a single session. Analysts link the decline to a major bank liquidation, rumored to be UBS, and a margin increase by the CME Group. Despite this, silver’s long-term outlook remains bullish due to industrial demand in solar panels, electronics, and the upcoming Chinese export restrictions.

Copper prices are currently around $5.51–$5.80 per pound. The metal has experienced a volatile end to the year but remains up 36% year-over-year. Growth in electrification, AI data center expansion, and green energy infrastructure have fueled strong demand. Supply disruptions in Indonesia and Chile, combined with worker protests in Peru, have tightened global availability, contributing to copper’s 2025 rally.

Gold holds steady on fed cuts and geopolitical risks

Gold has traded in a narrow range above $4,300, reflecting moderate easing by the Fed and inflation dynamics. Prices ranged from $4,323.80 to $4,403.90 in the final days of December, closing at $4,400, a 1.58% increase over recent sessions. Market analysts note that central bank purchases and continued safe-haven interest will likely support gold in 2026, with projections from Goldman Sachs and UBS pointing toward $5,000 per ounce.

Investor sentiment has also been influenced by a softer U.S. dollar, which makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies. Geopolitical tensions and year-end portfolio rebalancing have added momentum, encouraging traders to maintain positions in gold. Overall, gold remains a key hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty heading into 2026.

Silver’s flash crash and supply constraints

Silver experienced extreme volatility between December 29–30, dropping from $84 to below $73 per ounce. The sudden decline followed a major bank liquidation and a margin hike on CME silver contracts. Prices have since stabilized near $75–$77. Investors are closely watching China’s new silver export licensing rules, effective January 1, 2026. As the world’s dominant silver processor, China’s policy is expected to tighten global supply, a key factor behind silver’s record-breaking rally earlier this month.

The industrial demand for silver, particularly in solar panels, electronics, and electric vehicles, continues to underpin its value. Analysts highlight that the supply-demand imbalance could persist for months, making silver a potential outperformer in 2026. Market watchers are also noting increased interest from investment funds, which may further amplify price movements.

Copper rally driven by electrification and global demand

Copper ended 2025 near $5.6787 per pound, up 2.59% over the last trading session and 36% for the year. Demand is being driven by AI infrastructure, data center buildouts, and global green energy transitions. Supply-side risks remain significant, with halted operations at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, responsible for 3% of global output, and labor unrest in Chile and Peru. Recent threats of US tariffs on copper commodity forms have also shifted flows into US warehouses, tightening markets further.

Long-term demand for copper is expected to strengthen as countries accelerate electrification projects and renewable energy installations. Analysts point to rising copper intensity in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and battery storage as a structural support for prices. The market is likely to remain sensitive to production disruptions, making copper a high-interest commodity for 2026 investors.

Market outlook for precious and industrial metals

Analysts remain bullish for 2026. Gold is expected to continue as a safe-haven asset amid global uncertainties. Silver may test $100 per ounce due to supply deficits and industrial demand. Copper’s outlook is supported by governments’ electrification agendas and rising capital expenditure in AI and clean energy sectors. Investors are closely monitoring both geopolitical developments and supply disruptions as metals enter the new year with strong momentum.

Experts also emphasize the role of central banks, particularly in emerging markets, as continued buyers of gold and silver. Policy shifts, export controls, and infrastructure spending in green technology could create new volatility and opportunities across all three metals. Overall, metals are positioned for strong performance, but investors should prepare for occasional price swings.

As 2025 closes, gold near $4,400, silver around $77, and copper above $5.60 reflect not just cyclical momentum, but deeper structural shifts. Entering 2026, investors are watching whether these forces intensify—or collide—setting the stage for another defining year in global commodities markets.

FAQs:

Q: Why did silver experience a sharp drop at the end of December 2025? A: Silver plunged from $84 to below $73 on December 29–30 due to a major bank liquidation and a CME Group margin hike. The move caused short-term volatility but prices stabilized near $75–$77. China’s upcoming export licensing rules may continue to influence supply and price.

Q: What factors are driving copper and gold prices heading into 2026?

A: Copper remains strong at $5.68 per pound, supported by AI infrastructure, data centers, and green energy demand. Gold trades above $4,400 due to Fed rate cuts, safe-haven buying, and geopolitical tensions. Supply disruptions in Indonesia, Chile, and Peru further tighten global markets. Analysts forecast higher metals prices in 2026.