Weekly Breakout Remains Intact

Today’s price action builds on momentum first triggered by a bullish engulfing candlestick three weeks ago on the weekly chart. That pattern engulfed two prior weeks and closed above their highs, creating a more decisive bullish signal than usual. The accompanying breakout from a falling wedge has maintained credibility, and Tuesdays outside day validates the continuation of that earlier pattern’s implications.

Key Levels to Watch

Where natural gas finishes Tuesday will help define support and resistance dynamics. Holding above the 50-Day line at $3.07 and Monday’s high of $3.06 underscores short-term strength. More critically, sustained trade above $3.12 and eventually $3.20, the recent swing high, would clear the way for higher targets. Multiple failed recoveries of the 50-Day line in prior weeks raises the significance of today’s potential close above it.

Upside Potential from Channel and ABCD Pattern

The recent pullback now appears complete, marked by a successful test of confluence support around the 20-Day average, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, and the midpoint of a falling channel. That back test strengthens the case for a move toward the channel’s upper boundary.

An ABCD pattern that includes today’s $2.87 low projects an initial target of $3.45. This aligns with both the 200-Day moving average, now near $3.50, and the upper area of the channel, creating a high-value target zone if $3.20 resistance is broken.

Weekly Closing Setup

Heading into midweek, bulls aim to confirm strength by holding gains above $3.07 and pressing through $3.20. A close above those levels would reinforce the bullish structure and open the door to the higher $3.45 – $3.50 objective.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,690.20

• The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps on Wednesday.
• Upbeat United States data was not enough to rescue the US Dollar.
• XAU/USD consolidates near $3,700, bulls pause ahead of Federal Reserve’s announcement.

The record run of Gold prices continued on Tuesday, with the bright metal surpassing the $3,700 mark for the first time ever amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $3,703.08 early in the American session.

Gold retreated despite persistent USD selling and increasing caution ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. Profit-taking could partially explain Gold’s retracement, as market participants anticipate the first of three interest rate cuts before the year’s end. Policymakers have not yet confirmed other than 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cuts for 2025, meaning markets anticipate a dovish announcement. Should Chair Jerome Powell refrain from hinting at interest rate cuts in October and December, the tide may turn, with the USD finding unexpected yet temporary strength.

Financial markets pretty much ignored better-than-anticipated United States (US) data. The country released Retail Sales, which were up 0.6% in August, above the 0.2% forecast. Also, Import Prices rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in the same month, while Export Prices also gained 0.3% vs the -0.1% and 0.2% expected respectively. Finally, the US published August Industrial Production, which ticked 0.1% up after sliding 0.4% in the previous month, and Capacity Utilization, which held steady at 77.4%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair is showing modest signs of upward exhaustion. Technical indicators are losing their upward strength in extreme overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at around 81. Furthermore, the pair is far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $3,516, over $200 above the longer ones.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair has room to extend its advance. A mildly bullish 20 SMA provides support at around $3,657, while the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated north far below the shorter one. At the same time, the Momentum indicator resumed its advance within positive levels, while the RSI indicator seesaws directionless at around 70.

Support levels: 3,674.30 3,657.30 3,642.00

Resistance levels: 3,705.00 3,720.00 3,735.00

The (ETHUSD) price settled with slight gains in its last intraday trading, leaning on the support of its EMA50, accompanied by testing the critical support level at $4,490, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside minor bias line on the short-term basis, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels, reinforcing the chances for the price recovery on the near-term basis.

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• Silver is testing long-term highs at $42.75, favoured by broad-based Dollar weakness.
• Market expectations that the Fed will hint at a series of rate cuts are hammering the US Dollar.
• XAG/USD is reaching oversold levels, but downside attempts keep finding buyers.

Silver’s (XAG/USD) is trying to break long-terrm highs at $42.75 on Tuesday’s Early European session, favoured by broad-based US Dollar weakness, as the market braces for a “dovish cut” at the end of a two-day Fed monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.

Precious metals have been thriving in recent days with investors pricing in a series of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, starting with a quarter-point cut on Wednesday.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of currencies, is testing two-month lows, just above 97.00, after depreciating nearly 1% from last week’s highs.

Technical analysis: XAG/USD has scope for further appreciation

The technical pìcture is bullish, Momentum indicators show overbought levels on intra-day charts –the 4-hour RSI is above 70, but US Dollar weakness keeps downside attempts limited.

To the upside, above the mentioned $42.75 resistance area, the $43.00 psychological level might hold bulls ahead of the 261.8% retracement of the September 8 rally, at $43.50.

The pair has solid support at a previous resistance in the area of $42.50. Below here, the September 14 and 15 low, at $42.00, and the September 8 high, at $41.65, would come into focus.

 (This story was corrected on September 16 at 11:45 GMT to say that the $42.75 level is a long-term high, and not an all-time high, as previously stated.)

The U.S. shale patch is trimming capital expenditure budgets to preserve cash amid the lower oil prices. American producers could further cut back on spending and activity if the prevailing forecasts of a global oversupply materialize in the coming months.

Efficiency gains allow companies to pump more or equal volumes of crude with the same or reduced expenses.

The pullback in activity – the number of operating rigs and frac crews has crumbled in recent months – is not showing yet in the U.S. oil production figures. The shale patch is now in the lag window of a few months before the price decline shows up in output.

Efficiency gains are also pushing back production declines, but if the glut hits the global market and prices plunge in the $50s per barrel, the U.S. shale industry will likely curb drilling activity and cut capital budgets even more.

The market consensus appears to be that the strong summer demand is at its peak, and come the fourth quarter, global oil consumption will slow, and rising supply will overwhelm the market.

Growing supply from OPEC+ and higher output from South America will tip the market balance into oversupply toward the end of the year, analysts say.

Despite geopolitical risks, Wall Street banks have lowered their oil price forecasts for later this year and the first quarter of 2026, expecting the glut to depress prices.

Related: Oil Industry Gains Ground in California Regulatory Battle

Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan, see Brent Crude prices averaging $63.57 per barrel in the fourth quarter, a survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal showed this week. The projection is down from $64.13 expected in July and down from the Friday prompt price of about $68 a barrel.

For WTI Crude, the banks expect the price to average just above $60 per barrel, at $60.30, in the fourth quarter, down from last month’s $61.11 a barrel and down compared to the current price of about $64 a barrel.

Oil prices are set to further drop in the first quarter of 2026, with Brent at $62.73 and WTI at $59.65 per barrel, according to the Journal’s survey.

The glut will diminish by the third quarter of 2026, the banks reckon, as excess supply shocks are absorbed during next summer’s peak demand period.

But banks, analysts, and market participants expect oil supply to outstrip demand over the next six months, putting additional downward pressure on prices. This would make U.S. shale producers even more cautious with spending and budgets because a dip below $60 per barrel is threatening breakevens for drilling new wells.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is even more bearish than major banks in oil price projections.

The EIA expects in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Brent to slump in the coming months, falling from $71 per barrel in July to average just $58 in the fourth quarter of 2025 and around $50 per barrel in early 2026.

Earlier this year, shale executives said that a $50 WTI price would result in declining U.S. crude production.

U.S. shale production will likely plateau if WTI prices remain in the low $60s per barrel, and decline at prices in the $50s, ConocoPhillips chairman and CEO Ryan Lance said in May.

Due to the OPEC+ supply hikes, global oil inventory builds will average more than 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in late 2025 and early 2026, which is 800,000 bpd more than in last month’s STEO.

“Low oil prices in early 2026 will lead to a reduction in supply by both OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers, which we expect will help moderate inventory builds later in 2026,” the EIA said.

The administration expects Brent prices to average $51 a barrel next year, down from last month’s forecast of $58 a barrel.

Current growth in well productivity will push U.S. crude oil production to an all-time high near 13.6 million bpd in December 2025, the EIA said.

However, as crude oil prices fall, the EIA sees U.S. producers accelerating the decreases in drilling and well completion activity that have been ongoing through most of this year. As a result, U.S. crude oil production is set to decline from a record-high 13.6 million bpd at the end of this year to 13.1 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2026.

Energy Intelligence forecasts U.S. shale to show greater resilience in the face of falling prices, expecting U.S. crude production to be flat at around 13.5 million bpd through the end of 2025, and closing 2026 at about 13.4 million bpd.

The actual U.S. production will depend on how large the expected oversupply will be and how low oil prices will dip, as well as to what extent efficiencies can offset a drop-off in drilling activity and budgets.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

At 16:50 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.004, up $0.063 or +2.14%.

Will Seasonal Weather Patterns Support the Bulls?

Weather forecasts offer mixed signals for demand. NatGasWeather expects high pressure to dominate much of the U.S. this week, keeping highs in the 80s and 90s across the interior and Southwest. These conditions will boost cooling demand in the short term, though national demand is forecast to ease significantly over the weekend as northern states cool into the 60s and 70s.

This pattern translates to moderate demand early in the week, tapering off to light demand by the weekend — a setup that could cap rallies unless weather-driven demand persists longer than expected.

Is Surging Production Offsetting Demand Gains?

Supply remains a limiting factor for bullish sentiment. U.S. dry gas production continues to hover near 107 Bcf/d, keeping upward pressure on storage and tempering the impact of late-season heat.

The latest EIA storage report showed a 71 Bcf injection for the week ending September 5, bringing total inventories to 3,343 Bcf. While stocks remain 38 Bcf below last year, they sit 188 Bcf above the five-year average — a bearish overhang that looms over any short-term rallies unless demand materially exceeds expectations.

What’s the Near-Term Setup for Natural Gas Futures?

The short-term setup leans neutral-to-bearish with risks skewed lower if bulls fail to retake the $3.147 moving average. The defense of $2.887 was a critical hold, but without strong follow-through — particularly if weekend demand proves weak — prices could slip back toward $2.695.

• Gold retreats from lifetime highs shy of $3,700 as traders cash in early Tuesday.
• US Dollar sellers refuse to give up amid calls for aggressive Fed easing and Miran’s confirmation.
• Gold remains in the overbought region on the daily chart; a brief correction on the cards?

Gold has paused its record run early Tuesday, as traders cash in on their long positions, gearing up for the top-tier US Retail Sales data and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting, starting later in the day.

Gold down but not out as eyes turn to the Fed

Despite the latest pullback, Gold’s bullish bias remains intact amid increased calls for aggressive easing by the Fed, in light of growing stagflation risks and the Senate confirmation of US President Donald Trump’s pick, Stephen Miran, as a Fed Governor.

Miran replaces Adrian Kuglar and will be on the Fed Board until January.

Meanwhile, Trump, in a social media post on Monday, called for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to enact a “bigger” cut to benchmark interest rates.

Further, geopolitical and trade tensions continue to underpin the haven demand for the yellow metal.

Trump said late Monday that trade talks with China are still ongoing, adding that he is “undecided on the TikTok stake.”

The US president also “declared his intention to forcefully insert military forces under his control into cities that he personally deems require it,” per FXStreet’s Analyst Joshua Gibson.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas intensify as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refused to rule out further attacks on Hamas leaders in foreign countries, following last week’s strike in Qatar.

Looking ahead, attention turns to the high-impact US Retail Sales data on Tuesday and the Fed policy announcements on Wednesday for a fresh directional impetus to Gold.

In the meantime, a brief profit-taking decline cannot be ruled out in Gold as markets resort to repositioning after the recent record rally and ahead of the Fed verdict.

The Fed is widely expected to cut fed fund rates by 25 basis points (bps) as the central bank grapples with a slowing labor market, stubborn inflation and an unprecedented push by US President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs

Speculations are rife over a 50 bps rate cut, while markets are also betting on three rate cuts this year, beginning this week. Gold tends to benefit in a low-interest rate regime.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold buyers appear defiant even as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the extreme overbought zone, near 80.

On the upside, the $3,700 level is the immediate barrier to conquer, above which doors will open up toward the $3,750 region.

To the downside, the previous day’s low at $3,627 will offer some support on further pullback, below which the $3,600 round figure will be tested.

Sellers could target the previous week’s low of $3,578 on a decisive break below the $3,600 threshold.

Natural Gas Price Struggles Below $3.00 as Oversupply Pressures Mount

Natural Gas (NG=F) futures remain under heavy pressure, drifting around $2.94 per MMBtu after logging a 3.5% weekly decline. The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report showed a 71 Bcf injection for the week ending September 5, exceeding both market forecasts of 69 Bcf and the five-year average build of 56 Bcf. This elevated storage level pushed total inventories to 3,343 Bcf, 188 Bcf above the five-year norm, reinforcing a market well-supplied ahead of peak winter demand. With daily consumption slipping to 99.5 Bcf from 99.9 Bcf the prior week and LNG exports softening, the supply cushion is suppressing any immediate price rebound.

Global LNG Expansion Threatens to Tip Market Into Oversupply

Beyond the near-term softness, a structural challenge looms. Global LNG supply capacity is set to surge, with more than 174 million metric tonnes per year of new projects under development, including Qatar’s North Field East and U.S. Gulf Coast expansions. The U.S. alone has revised its 2025 natural gas production forecast upward to 106.63 Bcf/day, near record highs, as active rigs reached a two-year peak. LNG output grew 19% in the first half of the year compared to 2024, underscoring the supply acceleration. While developers expected Europe and China to absorb additional cargoes, China’s LNG imports have slowed due to stronger domestic production and increased flows from Russia. This shift risks leaving the market in a state of surplus by 2026, creating a persistent cap on price rallies beyond the $3.25 ceiling seen earlier in the summer.

European Gas Prices Ease But Sanctions Risk Keeps Upside Alive

In Europe, benchmark Dutch TTF front-month gas slipped to €32.19 per MWh, equivalent to $11.07 per mmBtu, while the U.K. front-month dropped to 79.15 pence per therm. Strong LNG arrivals and storage levels already 80% full have weighed on pricing. Mild weather and high wind generation reduced power-sector gas demand, reinforcing downside pressure. Yet, geopolitical risks remain a potent upside driver. Germany’s Emden terminal will undergo maintenance, and U.S. sanctions on Russian Arctic LNG 2 exports could disrupt flows further, particularly as cargoes have continued to reach China. Any escalation in restrictions would tighten LNG supply chains globally, reversing the current softness in European benchmarks and potentially spilling over into U.S. pricing.

Technical Picture: NG=F Locked Between Support and Resistance

Technically, Natural Gas (NG=F) remains in a consolidation phase, trading just below the $3.00 psychological barrier. Resistance is defined at $3.23, a level repeatedly tested but not breached, while near-term support sits between $2.80 and $2.82. Momentum indicators reinforce this range-bound scenario: the RSI hovers near 51, showing neutrality, while the 25-day EMA provides short-term support against a 50-day EMA ceiling. The inability to close above $3.13 signals buyers lack conviction, and the formation of lower highs since March adds weight to the bearish case. If $2.80 fails, downside could accelerate toward $2.64, while a bullish break above $3.23 would open the path toward $3.50.

Winter Outlook and Demand Uncertainty From Data Centers

Looking toward winter, natural gas demand fundamentals remain a wild card. European inventories may appear comfortable now, but a colder-than-expected season could trigger strong withdrawals, lifting prices back toward $3.50. In the U.S., the growing power needs of hyperscale data centers add another layer of uncertainty. Forecasts diverge widely on how much gas these facilities will consume by decade’s end, with some projecting a material uplift in baseline demand. However, renewable energy expansion continues to compete with natural gas in the power stack, limiting longer-term price sustainability unless structural consumption rises meaningfully.

Investment Stance: Bearish Bias With Tactical Buy Opportunities

With NG=F pinned below $3.00 and fundamentals skewed by oversupply risk, the broader stance remains bearish. The strong inventory build, accelerating global LNG capacity, and seasonal demand lull point toward further weakness. However, the downside appears cushioned near $2.80 as the market transitions into the winter cycle, where unexpected cold spells or geopolitical shocks could ignite sharp rallies. For traders, the strategy is to respect the range: accumulation near $2.80 for short-term rebounds toward $3.10–$3.25, while avoiding aggressive long positions until a decisive break above $3.23 confirms momentum. Medium-term, the oversupply trajectory suggests Natural Gas is a Sell on rallies unless demand surprises shift the balance.

That’s TradingNEWS

HSBC expects a big oil surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd) from the fourth quarter of 2025, and a surplus of 2.4 mbd in 2026, exacerbated by the return of OPEC+ barrels over the next 12 months, it said in a note on Monday.

At its meeting this month, OPEC+ opted to further increase oil production by 137,000 bpd in October, starting to unwind the 1.65 million bpd in cuts ahead of schedule.

HSBC’s latest oil market supply and demand model envisions OPEC+ gradually unwinding 1.65 million barrels per day in the “first-phase” voluntary production cuts over a 12-month period, HSBC said a week ago.

The bank also saw a downside risk to its 2026 $65 per barrel Brent price assumption if stockbuilds materialise in the West.

U.S. President Donald Trump urged EU officials last week to hit China with tariffs of up to 100% as part of a strategy to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The bank’s note on Monday stated that “outright losses in Russian supply are not in (HSBC’s) base case (but) Russia will struggle to increase its output in line with OPEC+ quotas.” The bank now expects only a modest production increase, lowering its end-2026 Russian production forecast by 300,000 bpd.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,682.60

• Easing United States government bond yields underpin the bright metal.
• The Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD aims to extend gains in the near term, aims for the $3,700 threshold.

Spot Gold trades near fresh all-time highs just above the $3,680 mark, approaching its all-time high of $3,674.63 posted earlier this month. Absent demand for the US Dollar (USD) prompted the bright metal higher at the beginning of the new week, as market players gear up for central banks’ monetary policy announcements.

Of course, the main focus is the Federal Reserve (Fed) schedule to announce its decision on Wednesday. The Fed is largely anticipated to deliver its first interest rate cut for 2025, with financial markets anticipating a 25 basis points (bps) reduction. The odds for a larger cut decreased following the release of sticky United States (US) inflation data, but some market participants still believe it’s possible.

The central banks of Canada, England, and Japan will also announce their decisions on monetary policy in the upcoming days, while Canada and the United Kingdom (UK) will release fresh inflation data. Other than that, the US will publish August Retail Sales on Tuesday, while Australia will unveil the August employment report on Thursday.

Softer US Treasury yields add to Gold’s advance, with the 10-year note currently offering 4.03%, down from an intraday peak of 4.089%.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it retains most of its intraday gains, with more advances in the docket, despite overbought conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at around 80, while the Momentum indicator approaches overbought territory, without signs of upward exhaustion. At the same time, Gold is rallying far above bullish moving averages, in line with the dominant upward trend. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently stands at $3,497.

In the near term and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is set to extend its advance. Technical indicators head north almost vertically, approaching overbought readings but still with room to go. Meanwhile, a flat 20 SMA provides intraday support at around $3,642, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading firmly north, far below the shorter one.

Support levels: 3,674.30 3,657.30 3,642.00

Resistance levels: 3,690.00 3,705.00 3,720.00