Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning (March 27) recorded a downward adjustment, pushing prices away from the support level of 93,000 VND/kg. Agents in the Central Highlands region simultaneously reduced purchase prices from 500 – 700 VND/kg, causing the average price level of the whole region to fall back to 92,600 VND/kg.

Detailed changes in key localities:

Dak Nong (old): Reduced by 500 VND, currently purchased at 92,700 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both adjusted down sharply by 700 VND, currently fluctuating around the threshold of 92,500 VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Recorded price of 91,700 VND/kg after a decrease of 500 VND compared to the previous session.

Although it has decreased significantly compared to the high of 96,900 VND recorded at the end of February, the current price base is still trying to accumulate in the face of negative fluctuations from the international futures exchange.

World coffee prices

Thursday’s trading session witnessed a simultaneous decline on both exchanges due to the prospect of abundant supply from South America.

New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell sharply by 8.45 cents (-2.67%), closing at 307.65 cents/lb. Selling pressure exploded after Marex Group Plc forecast Brazil’s 2026/27 crop output to reach a record 75.9 million sacks (up 15.5% y/y), exceeding all previous forecasts from Sucafina and StoneX. Arabica’s ICE inventory hitting a 6-month peak (585.621 sacks) also stalled the increase.

London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 futures fell 33 USD (-0.91%), closing the session at 3,596 USD/ton. Robusta’s decline was somewhat curbed thanks to ICE floor inventories continuing to fall to a 2.5-month low (only 4,173 lots). However, Vietnam’s export data for the first 2 months of the year increased by 14% (reaching 366,000 tons) is still a major barrier.

Market outlook

The coffee market is entering a sensitive phase as forecasts for record crops in Brazil are continuously released. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which disrupted sea transport, is still a cost-supporting factor, but not enough to cope with long-term oversupply pressure. Although Brazilian farmers are limiting sales to wait for higher prices, the prospect of a bumper crop of 75.9 million bags is causing speculators to worry.

It is forecasted that in the last sessions of the week, coffee prices will continue to fluctuate strongly around the area of 91,500 – 93,000 VND/kg. Developments in Brazil when low rainfall in Minas Gerais (only reaching 45% of the historical average) may be the only factor helping prices have technical recovery.

The actual price may differ depending on the quality and purchasing area.

2026.03.27 2026.03.27
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 27.03.26–03.04.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 83.45 with a target of 126.00–150.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 83.45. Stop Loss: below 83.45, Take Profit: 126.00–150.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 83.45 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–55.00. A sell signal: the level of 83.45 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 83.45, Take Profit: 65.00–55.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 83.45 with a target of 126.00–150.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 83.45 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–55.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, the ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) developing as its part. On the H4 chart, a bearish correction has likely finished developing as wave iv of 1 and wave v of 1 is currently forming. Within it, wave (iii) of v has started unfolding. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to the levels of 126.00–150.00. The level of 83.45 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 65.00–55.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

The GBPJPY pair didn’t move anything since yesterday, due to the continuation of forming a strong obstacle at 213.30 level against resuming the bullish scenario, holding is sideways range near 212.90 level.

Confirming that breaching the obstacle and holding above it is important, to reinforce the chances of reaching extra positive stations that are located near 214.05 and 215.20, while the failure of the breach might push it to form corrective trading, which forces it to suffer some losses by reaching 212.35 followed by the main bullish channel’s support at 211.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 212.35 and 214.05

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach 

Copper price stayed below $5.5100, maintaining its negative stance and increasing the likelihood of forming short-term corrective downward waves. Since yesterday, the price has been fluctuating near $5.4200, affected by the ongoing divergence in key indicators, particularly the moving average 55 positioned above current trading levels.

It is important for the price to gather bearish momentum during today’s sessions, which would facilitate targeting first $5.2700, followed by the next key support near $4.9500. However, a strong push above $5.5100 with a positive close would cancel this bearish outlook and give the price a chance to start recovering, potentially moving first toward $5.6300.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Bearish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, March 26, witnessed a fairly strong downward adjustment after reaching a high level in the middle of the week. Agents in the Central Highlands region reduced purchase prices from 800 to 1,000 VND/kg, causing the average price of the whole region to fall back to the threshold of 93.2 million VND/kg.

Detailed changes in localities:

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both decreased by 800 VND, currently purchasing at the mark of 93. 200 VND/kg.

Dak Nong (old): Recorded a decrease of 1,000 VND, pushing prices here down to 93.2 million VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Adjusted down 1,000 VND, currently fluctuating around the threshold of 92. 200 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

Wednesday’s trading session saw both London and New York exchanges turn down as concerns about sea transport disruptions began to cool down.

New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 futures fell 1.75 cents (-0.55%), closing the session at 316.10 cents/lb. Selling pressure appeared as there were hopes for US diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Iran, helping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Arabica’s ICE inventory is still at its highest level in 6 months (585.621 bags).

London exchange (Robusta): May 2026 delivery futures fell 33 USD (-0.90%), closing at 3,629 USD/ton. The decline occurred despite Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange still at a record low of 2.25 months (4,211 lots). Forecasts of a record crop of 75.3 million bags from Brazil and a 14% increase in exports from Vietnam continue to be major obstacles.

Market outlook

The coffee market is showing extreme sensitivity to geopolitical news. The sharp increase in logistics, insurance and fuel costs due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was once a stepping stone for Arabica prices to break through to a 7-week peak. However, when peace expectations appeared, the market immediately reacted with a strong profit-taking.

It is forecasted that in the coming sessions, coffee prices will continue to be in a state of stalemate in the range of 92,000 – 94,000 VND/kg. Basic factors such as low rainfall in Minas Gerais (only reaching 45% of the historical average) and Robusta inventory scarcity will prevent prices from falling deeply.

*Note: The actual price may differ depending on the quality and purchasing area.

Despite recent minor upward corrective movements, platinum price continues to face repeated resistance within the descending channel, with $2005.00 acting as an extension of the main resistance, which makes us keep the bearish scenario in the near and medium period trading.

Additionally, the 55-period moving average is forming an extra resistance barrier below the channel’s upper limit, providing further bearish momentum. Our negative outlook targets first $1865.00, with potential extension toward $1775.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1980.00 and $1865.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price neediness to the negative momentum that comes from the moving average 55 positivity contradiction with stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum led to form new sideways trading, due to its fluctuation near the barrier at $5.5100 level.

This barrier represents a detecting key for the near and medium trading, so the stability below it confirms the dominance of the bearish corrective trend, which might target $5.2700 and $4.9500, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will force the price to delay the decline and begin providing bullish trading, attempting to reach $5.6300 and $5.7600.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Bearish

The effect of Fibonacci positivity by forming bullish waves to rally towards the moving average 55 near $1985.00, keeping its stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents an extension level for the main resistance at 2040.00 level.

The stability below the main resistance makes us keep the bearish scenario, as gathering the negative momentum makes us begin targeting some negative stations by reaching $1865.00 and $1775.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will confirm regaining the bullish trend, to attempt to reach $2090.00 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $1865.00 and $2000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish