The EURJPY pair ended its last attempts with clear failure, to breach 173.50 barrier, which forces it to delay the bullish attack and begin forming bearish correctional waves, to settle near 172.90.

The price might keep forming correctional trading to gather some of the gains, to target 171.60, keeping its main stability within the bullish channel that appears in the above image, while its success in breaching the barrier and holding above it will allow it achieve more of the gains, to reach 174.25 followed by the next main target at 175.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.60 and 173.50

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

• Gold maintains its bullish trend intact, with bears contained above $3,615 so far.
• The US Dollar extends losses as markets brace for Fed monetary easing.
• XAU/USD maintains the $3,675 all-time high at a short distance.

Gold failed to find acceptance above the $3,660 area and is trading lower on Thursday, returning to $3,620, as the US Dollar appreciates for the third consecutive day, with all eyes on the US Consumer Prices Index release.

XAU/USD islands tall at a short distance of the all-time high, at $3,675 on Monday. A weaker US Dollar, weighed by market expectations that the Fed will cut rates later this week, keeps precious metals buoyed, with deonside attemots contained above $3,615.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the US Dollar value against a basket of currencies, is trading 0.2% lower today, drifting closer to two-month lows. Investors are positioning for a 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday and also for a dovish turn on the interest rate projections, the so-called “dot plot” and on the bank’s forward guidance.

XAU/USD downside attempts find buyers

Gold’s consolidation pattern seen over the last few days has contributed to pulling the 4-hour Relative Strength Index down from the oversold levels seen last week, but it is still above the key 50 level. The MACD in the same timeframe is bearish yet with downside momentum fading.

Downside attempts have been contained above $3,615 so far. Further down, the $3,580 support (September 3 high, September 8 low) might provide some support ahead of the September 4 low, at $3,510.

To the upside, immediate resistance is the September 9 high, at $3,675. Beyond this, the psychological $3,700 level emerges as the next target, and then probably the 161.8% extension of last week’s rally, near $3,740.

The EURJPY pair ended its last attempts with clear failure, to breach 173.50 barrier, which forces it to delay the bullish attack and begin forming bearish correctional waves, to settle near 172.90.

The price might keep forming correctional trading to gather some of the gains, to target 171.60, keeping its main stability within the bullish channel that appears in the above image, while its success in breaching the barrier and holding above it will allow it achieve more of the gains, to reach 174.25 followed by the next main target at 175.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.60 and 173.50

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

The (Brent) price rose in its last intraday trading, taking advantage of surpassing the negative pressure of EMA50, which helped it to achieve these gains, on the other hand, the price remains under the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside bias line, with the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), to indicate forming negative divergence due to the difference between its peaks and those actually present on the price movement.

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Platinum price confirmed the stability of the bullish track by its rally above the initial barrier at $1400.00, attempting to face stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, attempting to target more of the positive stations, to expect its rally to $1412.00, then repeat the pressure on 2.618%Fibonacci extension level near $1435.00.

The risk of delaying the rise and activating the bearish correctional track is represented by the stability of the price below $1382.00, to attack the moving average 55 reaching the extra support near $1355.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1390.00 and$1412.00.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price trades on a stronger note around $3,640 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Markets expect the Fed to cut its interest rate on Wednesday. 
• The US-China meeting heads into the second day focused on trade and economy. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $3,640 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal gains traction as a weakening US labor market reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver its first rate cut of the year this week.

The US central bank is anticipated to deliver a quarter-point rate cut at its September meeting on Wednesday, with a small potential for a 50 basis points (bps) move amid signs US job growth is slowing rapidly. 

Markets have also priced in rate reductions continuing deep into 2026 to ward off a recession. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal. 

“Weaker employment and spotty inflation… priced in with the Fed having to cut rates is pushing metals higher because there is the risk of longer-term inflation,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

US and Chinese representatives, helmed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and a Chinese official led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, discussed trade and the economy during high-level talks in Madrid. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-China talks as the meeting heads into the second day. Any signs of easing trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies could boost the risk sentiment, weighing on the safe-haven asset like Gold. 

Natural Gas (NG=F) Market Outlook and Price Levels

Natural Gas futures (NG=F) entered mid-September under mixed pressures. On Friday, October contracts closed at $2.96 per MMBtu, up 0.24% from the prior session after forecasts pointed to hotter weather across the southern U.S. between September 17–21, spurring expectations of higher demand from power generators. That bounce came after a 1.5-week low earlier in the week, when the EIA reported a storage injection of +71 bcf, above consensus at +68 bcf and well above the five-year average of +56 bcf. Inventories now sit +6% above the five-year seasonal norm and only 1.3% lower year over year, signaling ample supply. Europe also sits comfortably at 80% storage levels against a historical 86%, another cap on price strength.

Production and LNG Export Dynamics Driving NG=F

Dry gas production in the lower-48 reached 108 bcf/day, up 7.1% year on year and near record highs. The EIA revised its 2025 production forecast to 106.63 bcf/day, up from 106.40 in August. Rig counts touched a two-year high, underscoring the supply overhang. U.S. LNG exports remain solid but dipped slightly with net flows at 14.5 bcf/day, down 4.7% week over week due to pipeline maintenance. EQT, the Appalachian Basin’s largest producer, is attempting to bypass traditional middlemen by signing contracts to buy LNG from Gulf Coast terminals and sell directly to Europe and Asia. These volumes, totaling 4.5 million tons annually, amount to 5% of U.S. exports. While U.S. benchmark gas is priced around $3 per MMBtu, European and Asian buyers continue paying $11+, creating a wide arbitrage. EQT’s move raises competition against majors like Shell (SHEL), BP (BP), and ConocoPhillips (COP), but also underscores a structural push by U.S. producers to capture margin beyond Henry Hub pricing.

International Pricing and Spot Market Activity

In Turkey’s spot market, 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas traded at 14,332 lira on Sept. 13, equal to $346 at prevailing FX rates. Spot trade volumes fell 18.7% to 11.68 million lira, with 816,000 cubic meters transacted. Meanwhile, pipeline deliveries into Turkey remained strong at 122 million cubic meters. Globally, LNG deals are expanding, with Turkey securing 15 bcm over three years through new contracts signed at Gastech 2025. These long-term arrangements highlight strong international demand even as regional spot markets soften.

Corporate and Contractual Developments

Puerto Rico’s Fiscal Oversight Board is finalizing a 15-year, $20 billion LNG supply contract with New Fortress Energy (NFE) despite the company’s financial struggles, including a $557 million Q2 loss and a stock price collapse to $1.31 from $35.58 in 2024. NFE controls the San Juan dock, the island’s sole LNG gateway until 2038, giving it leverage despite balance-sheet distress. The deal reflects how infrastructure bottlenecks can sustain high-cost suppliers even in weak financial health, with direct implications for regional LNG pricing and reliability.

Egypt and Regional Supply Expansion

Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum reported higher production rates as new seismic surveys and foreign partnerships accelerate. Floating storage and regasification units (FSRUs) have stabilized summer demand without load shedding. Egypt also aims to leverage its 3 trillion cubic feet reserves and petrochemical sector to secure export commitments. The government signed new exploration agreements, with international majors like TotalEnergies and ADNOC signaling interest. This positions Egypt as a regional hub, further shaping supply flows into Europe and Asia.

Macro Shifts: Data Centers and U.S. Power Demand

A new driver of domestic gas consumption is emerging from the AI boom. Data centers consumed 4.4% of total U.S. electricity in 2023, projected to rise to between 6.7% and 12% by 2028. Facilities under construction, some drawing power equivalent to 176,000 homes, are cementing natural gas as a backstop fuel as renewables struggle to scale at the pace of demand. Utilities have doubled natural gas capacity plans in just 18 months, adding 52 GW of new gas builds, while delays in connecting solar and wind projects—now averaging five years—leave fossil fuels dominant. Utilities favor gas plants because regulatory processes let them pass fuel costs to consumers directly, creating long-term reliance despite climate mandates.

Price Risks and Seasonal Factors

Short-term demand is highly weather dependent. The warmer forecast through late September supports NG=F near $3.00, but bearish risks remain from production oversupply and above-average storage. European storage comfort adds downward pressure, with winter risk premium not yet built into pricing. If U.S. demand spikes from heat waves or if LNG flows recover post-maintenance, upside could test $3.20–$3.30 resistance. On the downside, sustained injections above 70 bcf per week could drag futures back toward $2.75–$2.80 support.

Investment Call on Natural Gas (NG=F)

Natural Gas presents a complex mix of bullish catalysts—weather, LNG arbitrage, and data-center electricity demand—against heavy bearish forces from record production, high storage, and structural oversupply risks into 2027. EQT’s direct-to-Europe strategy shows producers’ push for margin capture but also highlights growing competition with supermajors. NFE’s contract saga underscores geopolitical supply chokepoints. With NG=F holding just below $3.00, the market is balanced but vulnerable to storage builds and production growth. Based on current fundamentals, the outlook leans Neutral to Bearish, and the call is Hold, with tactical trading opportunities on weather-driven spikes but limited sustained upside until winter heating demand tightens balances.

That’s TradingNEWS

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD Consolidates at $3,643 With Fed Rate Cut in Focus

XAU/USD Holds Near Record Highs

Gold (XAU/USD) ended the week at $3,643.09, climbing more than 1.5% as markets positioned for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September 17 meeting. The rally has stretched into a fourth straight weekly gain, with price action consistently defending support levels after a breakout above the $3,500 zone. This level now acts as a strong floor. Technical support also sits at $3,311.56, with the 52-week moving average at $3,025.64 anchoring longer-term structure.

Fed Expectations and Labor Market Weakness

Markets are assigning a 94% probability of a 25bp cut next week, with a smaller chance of 50bp. Jobless claims surged to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics admitted to an overcount of 911,000 jobs between April 2024 and March 2025. Nonfarm payrolls in August showed just 22,000 new jobs, underscoring the softening labor backdrop. These cracks outweigh the stickiness of inflation, where August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, slightly hotter than forecasts.

Persistent Inflation Versus Dovish Fed Tilt

Inflation remains elevated with core CPI steady at 3.1%, but markets are discounting short-term price pressures in favor of the Fed’s likely dovish pivot. Traders are betting that weaker employment data will dominate the FOMC narrative, especially as real yields turn lower. Gold’s safe-haven bid strengthens when yields compress, and this dynamic is central to the current rally.

Central Bank Demand and ETF Flows

Beyond macro policy, structural demand remains robust. The People’s Bank of China continues to accumulate reserves, signaling sustained sovereign appetite. Beijing has also simplified gold import and export rules, which could lift trading volumes. Institutional flows into gold-backed ETFs have resumed after a brief summer pause, with holdings rising steadily since mid-August. These inflows mirror a broader theme: portfolio managers diversifying against recession risk.

Technical Path Toward $3,879

The breakout above $3,500.20 set the stage for a September projection toward $3,879.64 based on swing chart extensions. Resistance lies at $3,666, $3,730, and $3,782, where overbought conditions could spark short-term pauses. Still, momentum remains intact, with bulls defending every retracement. The RSI has normalized from extreme levels, suggesting energy remains for another push higher. If momentum persists, the breakout zone could accelerate gains into the $3,850–$3,880 range before quarter-end.

Macro Events Ahead for Gold Traders

Traders now turn to the FOMC meeting, but several U.S. data points remain on the radar. Retail sales, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and jobless claims later this week will all inform growth expectations. Any further deterioration in labor indicators will add conviction to the gold rally, while stronger-than-expected consumer data could briefly strengthen the dollar and cap bullion.

Link Between Gold and Bitcoin

The coupling between gold and Bitcoin has strengthened in 2025. When gold surged past $3,500 in April, Bitcoin followed two months later, peaking at $124,457. Both assets are now consolidating while awaiting Fed guidance. The correlation highlights gold’s continued role as the lead indicator in liquidity-driven rallies.

Verdict on XAU/USD

Verdict: BUY — With XAU/USD holding $3,643 into the Fed meeting, the combination of weak labor data, ETF inflows, and central bank demand supports a bullish continuation. The probability of a breakout toward $3,879 remains high, with support anchored at $3,500 and major downside invalidation only at $3,311. If the Fed confirms easing, gold is positioned for another leg higher into Q4 2025.

That’s TradingNEWS

Natural Gas (NG=F) Battles $3.00 Wall as Storage Builds Pressure Prices

Natural gas futures (NG=F) closed the week under intense pressure, struggling to hold the $2.90–$2.95/MMBtu band as supply builds offset fragile demand. The October contract settled at $2.941/MMBtu, a modest +0.24% daily uptick, yet the broader trend remained bearish after repeated failures to sustain above the $3.00 psychological barrier. This price action follows a U.S. EIA storage injection of 71 Bcf, well above the five-year average of 56 Bcf, lifting inventories to 3,343 Bcf, 188 Bcf above the seasonal norm. With just six weeks left in the injection season, the market faces the risk of ending close to 4.0 Tcf in storage, a level that historically weighs heavily on front-month contracts.

Technical Pressure: $2.90 Support Tested, $3.20 Resistance Firm

From a technical standpoint, natural gas has been trapped between resistance at $3.20–$3.23 and support at $2.87–$2.90. The 20-day moving average at $2.92 has been tested twice, reinforcing this as a pivot zone, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.84 remains the next key downside marker. Momentum signals are weak: the RSI at 44 shows room before oversold conditions, while the MACD remains flat, confirming a market lacking conviction. Weekly charts show a higher high and low but still a net decline, underscoring short-term resilience within a broader downtrend. A decisive break below $2.87 would trigger deeper losses, potentially targeting $2.65.

Supply and Demand Imbalance Remains Bearish

U.S. production held at 112.3 Bcf/d, just slightly below the prior week, while total demand slipped to 99.5 Bcf/d, down 0.4 Bcf/d. The power sector led the decline as milder September weather capped cooling demand. LNG exports dipped marginally to 16.0 Bcf/d from 16.1 Bcf/d, and pipeline flows to Mexico eased to 7.1 Bcf/d from 7.4 Bcf/d. These marginal changes underscore a market where supply continues to exceed demand. With European TTF benchmark prices around $9.60/MMBtu and Asia’s JKM at $11.35/MMBtu, international markets are providing limited upside pull despite geopolitical risks, as U.S. export terminals are already operating near capacity.

Storage Levels and Seasonal Risks

Storage dynamics are the core bearish driver. Inventories now sit 6% above the five-year average and only 1.1% below last year’s level, despite high summer burn rates earlier in 2025. To end injection season at 3.9 Tcf, weekly injections need to average 93 Bcf; to hit 4.0 Tcf, that number jumps to 109 Bcf. Given recent builds, the higher figure is increasingly plausible. End-of-season surpluses of this magnitude typically cap winter rallies unless unexpected cold snaps emerge.

Geopolitical and LNG Headlines Fail to Ignite Prices

Events abroad offered sparks but no sustained fire. Europe continues to push for reduced Russian gas reliance, with the U.S. pledging LNG support, yet export constraints at U.S. terminals prevent significant new flows. Japanese utility JERA’s 20-year contract with the $44B Alaska LNG project highlights long-term bullish LNG demand, but near-term infrastructure delays keep incremental supply years away. Similarly, Canada’s push to fast-track LNG Canada Phase 2 projects will matter later in the decade, not in Q4 2025. Geopolitical disruptions—such as Israel’s strikes in Qatar—briefly lifted sentiment, but the impact faded as U.S. storage data reasserted dominance.

Spot Market Weakness Across Hubs

Regional cash markets confirm the bearish tilt. At Henry Hub, benchmark spot gas added just $0.095 to $2.94, reflecting limited upside. The Waha Hub in West Texas remains severely discounted at -1.905, weighed down by Permian oversupply. Chicago Citygate barely managed a +$0.045 gain, while Algonquin Citygate fell -0.28 amid weak Northeast demand. With regional spreads remaining wide, bottlenecks and infrastructure constraints continue to exaggerate local dislocations, reinforcing the oversupply narrative in key producing basins.

Weather Outlook and Tropical Risks

Weather models provide the last hope for bulls. NOAA’s 8–14 day forecast shows below-average temperatures for much of the East, dampening cooling demand, while warmer-than-normal conditions could return in late September, reviving A/C usage. The tropics also remain a risk factor, with systems developing in the Atlantic potentially disrupting Gulf Coast infrastructure. Yet unless storms directly impact LNG terminals or pipelines, their influence is often short-lived.

Natural Gas Futures Curve Signals Weak Confidence

The forward curve highlights structural weakness. October contracts trade at $2.95, while December fetches $3.80 and January $4.10, reflecting a steep contango as traders price in seasonal winter strength. This spread incentivizes storage injections now, further adding to near-term bearish weight. With inventories already elevated, the curve suggests traders are hedging rather than betting on tightness.

Buy, Sell, or Hold Verdict on Natural Gas (NG=F)

At $2.94/MMBtu, natural gas sits at a crossroads. Elevated storage at 3.343 Tcf, sluggish demand, and production near record levels argue strongly for continued downside. The only bullish lifelines are weather volatility and geopolitical disruption, neither of which has shifted the core balance. With resistance firm at $3.20 and support fragile at $2.87, the risk-reward setup tilts bearish. Based on current fundamentals and technicals, Natural Gas (NG=F) earns a Sell rating, with likely tests of $2.84 and potentially $2.65 before any winter-driven recovery attempt.

That’s TradingNEWS

The (ETHUSD) price rose in its last intraday trading, attacking the critical resistance at $4,500, which represents our suggested target in our previous analysis, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50, with its trading alongside minor bullish trend on the short-term basis that supports the bullish movement, despite the negative signals that come from the (RSI), after reaching overbought levels, to offload some of this conditions despite the price rise, indicating the strength of the trend and its dominance.

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