XAU/USD Current price: $4,869

• Gold’s failure to retain the $5,000 mark leads to firmer selling interest.
• The US Dollar gains even in a risk-averse environment amid American economic resilience.
• XAU/USD drew a line in the sand for buyers in early February at $4,402.

Gold buyers have been reluctant to give up, but XAU/USD’s behaviour suggests they may face a tough battle in the upcoming days. The rally that saw the Gold price double in a little over a year and drove the bright metal to record highs came to a halt at the end of January, when the price dropped $1,200 per ounce in a couple of days.

The subsequent recovery was initially encouraging, but continued failure to retain gains beyond the $5,000 is discouraging buyers more as time goes by. Even worse, risk-off peaks tend to benefit the Greenback, even against the safe-haven par excellence.

The battle between sellers and buyers is likely to continue, yet the firsts are slowly gaining ground. Following failure to retain the psychological mark, Gold is making lower lows on a daily basis, usually a sign of further declines ahead.

What makes the US Dollar a better bet?

There’s one word to sum it up: resilience. The United States (US) economy has proven resilient, with steady growth despite fluctuations in the labor market and stubborn inflation. It has also proved resilient despite US President Trump’s foreign and protectionist policies, and even with the Federal Reserve’s independence under threat. One may love it or hate it, but there’s no doubt the US is the world’s largest economy, and there’s nobody out there to challenge the crown.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Gold drew a line in the sand in early February, bottoming at $4,402. As long as the price remains above the level, bulls will retain some hopes, yet the closer the level comes, the more discouraged they will be.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) has slipped beneath the 100-period SMA, both tilt lower, and are above the current level, providing near-term dynamic resistance at $4,967 and $5,017. Meanwhile, a mildly bullish 200-period SMA provides support around $4,827. The Momentum indicator aims marginally lower within neutral levels, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 33 hints at lower lows ahead.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD finally broke below the 20-day SMA, now capping advances in the $4,990 area. Price holds above the longer SMAs, which, anyway, develop below the critical $4,400 region. Finally, technical indicators aim firmly lower, with the Momentum dipping into negative territory and the RSI crossing its midline to the downside, in line with mounting selling pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades lower to near $73.70 on Tuesday at the time of writing, down 3.50% on the day. The white metal has been under pressure as dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations remain capped despite cooling United States (US) inflation in January.

Theoretically, immaterial dovish Fed prospects in the near term weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

The data released on Friday showed that the US headline inflation dropped to 2.4% YoY from 2.7% in December. In the same period, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy items – grew moderately by 2.5%, as expected, against the previous reading of 2.6%.

Meanwhile, investors brace for high volatility in the North American session as US markets will open after an extended weekend.

This week, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting on Wednesday. In the meeting, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%.

Globally, investors will pay attention to the second round of talks between the US and Iran in Geneva during the day. Delegates from both nations are expected to discuss the nuclear programme in Tehran. Ahead of talks, US President Donald Trump has signaled that Iran will make a deal, while warning that the nation will face consequences if they don’t resolve issues.

Silver technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $73.68. The 20-day exponential moving average descends to $83.30, signaling a weakening short-term structure. Price holds below this gauge, keeping rebounds capped and leaving sellers in control. RSI (14) at 42.17 (neutral) stays under the midline, indicating momentum favors the downside without oversold conditions.

A daily close back above the falling 20-day EMA would ease immediate pressure and improve the near-term tone. Absent that, the path of least resistance remains lower, with failed bounces prone to being faded as the average continues to cap recovery attempts.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

XAU/USD Current price: $4,991

• US markets are closed at the beginning of the week amid the celebration of Presidents’ Day.
• Nuclear talks between the United States and Iran will take place in Geneva on Tuesday.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, sellers defend the $5.000 threshold.

Spot Gold has spent most of this Monday trading in a tight range around the $5,000 mark, shedding some ground in the American afternoon, yet lacking directional momentum. A holiday in the United States (US), as the country celebrates Presidents’ Day, exacerbates the quietness after the European close.

Still, the Greenback trades with modest gains across most major rivals, as recent US data hinted at resilient economic progress, while leaving the door open for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates. A clearer picture should appear on Friday, when the US will publish Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge. On the same day, the country will release the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

In the meantime, investors will look at political headlines for direction. Negotiations between the US and Iran are set to continue on Tuesday, in Geneva, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announcing he is coming with “real ideas to achieve a fair and equitable deal.”

At the same time, US President Donald Trump met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the weekend.  Trump said afterwards that he would support Israeli strikes on Iran’s ballistic missile program if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the 4-chart shows that XAU/USD is neutral. The pair seesaws right below a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which converges with the 100-period SMA, limiting advances around $5,020. The 200-period SMA at $4,810.85 maintains a modest upward slope, providing relevant support. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere within neutral levels, reflecting the absence of a certain trend.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD battles to remain above a bullish 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which keeps rising above the 100- and 200-day SMAs. The 20-day SMA currently stands at $4,988.67, offering immediate dynamic support. Meanwhile, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, indicating bearish pressure building as upside impetus fades. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also heads south yet at 54, not enough to confirm lower lows ahead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)