The EURNZD approached its last bullish rally from the resistance of the bullish channel at 2.0330, then begin forming bearish corrective waves, affected by stochastic negativity to gather the gains by reaching 2.0135.

We expect resuming the bearish corrective track, due to stochastic stability below 50 level, to expect its target to 2.0050 level, reaching the extra support at 2.000, while renewing the bullish attempts requires breaching the barrier near 2.0190, motivating the bullish attack to ease the mission of pressing on the resistance of the bullish channel.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0000 and 2.0170

Trend forecast: Bearish

The (ETHUSD) price soared high in its last intraday trading, resuming its strong gains amid the dominance of the bullish corrective trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trendline for this track, with the continuation of the positive pressure due to its trading above EMA50, with the emergence of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, despite reaching overbought levels, indicating the strength of the positive momentum.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by its stability above $4,280, to target the initial resistance level at $4,500.

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• Silver price clings to gains above $47 amid the US government shutdown.
• US Vice President Vance warns of massive layoffs if the government remains shut down for longer.
• The US private sector labor force saw a reduction of 32K employees in September.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto gains near the all-time high around $47.80 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The white metal posted a fresh all-time high on Wednesday as funding to the United States (US) government stopped after the short-term funding bill failed to achieve a majority in the House of Senate on Tuesday.

The US government shutdown has increased the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Silver.

US Vice President (VP) JD Vance has warned that the White House would need to resort to lay-offs if the shutdown remains for more than a few days, Reuters reported.

Such a scenario could boost hopes of more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tackle a weak labour market outlook.

Meanwhile, the job demand in the private sector has also worsened due to new economic policies announced by US President Donald Trump. On Wednesday, the ADP reported that the private sector removed 32K payrolled workers in September, while it was expected to have hired 50K fresh job-seekers. Additionally, the August ADP Employment data was also revised from an addition of 54K workers to a reduction of 3K employees.

In Thursday’s session, the Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending September 27 is unlikely to be released due to the US government shutdown, a scenario that will force Fed officials to look for other private sources to get cues on the current status of individuals seeking jobless benefits.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price oscillates inside the Wednesday’s range around $47.25, remains close to its all-time high of $47.80 posted the same day. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $44 suggests that the near-term trend remains bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trades inside the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, indicating a strong bullish momentum.

Looking up, the Silver price could extend its upside to near the psychological level of $50.00. On the downside, the 20-day EMA will act as key support.

Silver daily chart

• Gold holds the previous retracement from record highs of $3,895 early Thursday.
• US Dollar struggles with its overnight rebound amid US government shutdown concerns.     
• Technically, Gold remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade, with the four-hourly RSI within the bullish zone.

Gold is modestly in the red for the first time in six trading days early Thursday, holding its retreat from record highs of $3,895 reached mid-Wednesday.

Gold stays supported amid US fiscal and data woes

Concerns over the United States (US) government shutdown-induced delay in critical employment and inflation data weighed on investors as they flocked to safety in the traditional safe haven Gold.

The delay in the US statistics could probably raise doubts on the scope and timing of further US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts beyond the October 28-29 meeting, This narrative dented the sentiment around the US Dollar (USD), further helping Gold stretch its record raly.

However, the USD changed course in the mid-American session and staged a decent comeback following the news that the Supreme Court allowed Fed Governor Lisa Cook to remain in her post pending oral arguments in January on whether President Donald Trump has legal cause to fire her., per CNBC News.

Gold paused its record run and pulled back sharply from fresh lifetime highs on the USD turnaround to settle Wednesday near $3,865.

In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold is consolidating the previous retracement moves, supported above the $3,850 barrier.

The bright metal is drawing support from lingering geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia and Ukraine.

The Group of Seven (G7) nations vowed to tighten sanctions enforcement against Russia, pledging to phase out remaining imports and warning of penalties for countries and firms helping to finance Moscow’s war effort.

Following this announcement late Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported, quoting US President Trump that he will provide Ukraine with intelligence to support long-range missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

 Additionally, impending worries over the effects of the US shutdown and increased October Fed rate cut expectations will likely keep any pullback in Gold price short-lived as markets take account of weakening US labor market conditions.

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed on Wednesday, private companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023. Markets expected an increase of 50,000 in the reported month.

The US ADP data outweighed the uptick in the ISM Manufacturing PMI to 49.1 in September.

Looking ahead, traders will continue to pay close attention to whether the lawmakers will reach an interim deal to pause the shutdown, enabling the release of the US weekly Jobless Claims and August Factory Orders, originally scheduled later in the day.

Gold price technical analysis: Four-hourly chart

As observed on the four-hour chart, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the bullish territory, currently near 64.

Therefore, the leading indicator suggests that the Gold uptrend remains well in place in the near term, and that any dip could be quickly bought in.

Buyers must find acceptance above the $3,900 level on a daily closing basis to resume the bullish momentum.

The next topside hurdle is located at the $3,950 barrier on the way to the $4,000 mark.  

Conversely, any retracement pullback could test the initial support at $3,839, the 21-Simple Moving Average (SMA), below which the 50-SMA at $3,787 would be tested.

Deeper correction could target the September 24 low near $3,720, where the 100-SMA coincides.

At 16:14 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.447, down $0.023 or -0.66%.

Can Natural Gas Hold Its Gains Despite Low Weather Demand?

Mild early-fall temperatures are weighing on national demand. According to NatGasWeather, the northern two-thirds of the U.S. are experiencing unseasonably warm conditions, with highs in the upper 60s to 80s. The South remains warmer, reaching into the 90s in some areas. While this setup limits Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days are running slightly above average. Still, overall U.S. demand remains light for the first week of October.

However, demand is not quite as weak as models had indicated late last week, partially supporting the price recovery. Traders are pricing in a more balanced outlook, with short-covering likely contributing to the rally after several weeks of choppy trade.

Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Disrupt Energy Market Data?

A new risk emerged Wednesday as a partial U.S. government shutdown began, following a standoff between former President Trump’s allies and Senate Democrats. While the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its weekly natural gas storage report on schedule, traders remain on alert for possible delays in upcoming data that could cloud market signals and create volatility.

In the meantime, traders are awaiting fresh EIA inventory data, after last week’s report showed a build of +75 Bcf — just above expectations but still slightly below the 5-year average. Inventories remain well supplied, sitting +6.1% above seasonal norms.

Is Colder Weather on the Horizon Enough to Sustain the Rally?

Weather models are starting to shift, with forecasts from Atmospheric G2 suggesting cooler trends in the West between October 6–10, and a broader cool risk developing nationwide for October 10–14. This potential boost to heating demand may offer further upside if confirmed.

• Silver retreated from session lows sub-$46.00 after rejection above $47.00.
• Precious metals are correcting lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar sell-off stalls.
• XAG/USD’s bears are pushing against the $46.00 support area at the time of writing.

Silver (XAG/USD) has snapped a three-day rally on Tuesday, as the pair failed to consolidate at levels beyond $47.00, and retreated to session lows below $45.80, before returning to levels right above the $46.00 line

Precious metals are correcting lower from long-term highs on Tuesday. Investors remain wary about a potential shutdown of the federal government, but the US Dollar sell-off seen in previous days has stalled. 

Technical Analysis: Silver is in a bearish correction from long-term highs

Everything that goes up must come down, and Silver is not different. The technical picture shows a healthy bearish correction in progress, with the 4-Hour Relative Strength Index coming down from strongly overbought levels.

A reverse trendline resistance is acting as support in the area of the September 29 lows, between $45.90 and $46.10, holding bears for now. Further down, the previous long-term highs, at $45.30 (September 25 high) and $44.45 (September 23 high) would come into focus.
To the upside, immediate resistance lies at Tuesday’s high. to $47.15.Beyond here, e,  Fibonacci tool shows the 161.8% extension of the September 17-23 bullish run, at $49.15.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,870.97

• The United States government ran out of funding, data releases delays.
• The ADP Employment Change report came in much worse than anticipated in September.
• XAU/USD retreats from record highs, retains the bullish bias.

Spot Gold peaked at $3,895.29 on Wednesday, a fresh all-time high. The bright metal rallied on news that the United States (US) government effectively shut down on Wednesday, as Congress was unable to agree on a funding bill. The US Dollar (USD) fell against all major rivals, with safe-haven assets benefiting the most.

Republicans and Democrats have different views on how to re-fund the federal government, and the irreconcilable differences persist. Mid-Wednesday, the Senate voted once again not to advance the Democratic-backed resolution to fund the government for a few weeks.

Meanwhile, US data was mixed. On the one hand, ADP released the Employment Change report, which showed the private sector lost 32,000 job positions in September, much worse than the 50,000 gain anticipated by market participants. The report also reported a 3,000 position loss in August, downwardly revised from a previously reported 54,000 increase.

On the other hand, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in slightly better than anticipated, printing at 49.1 in September vs expectations of 49 and the previous 48.7.

The dismal mood eased after Wall Street’s opening, as stocks shrugged off concerns. The three major indexes trade in the green, weighing on the bright metal. The XAU/USD pair also retreated on modest USD demand.

Most of the US data scheduled for the rest of the risk will hardly see the light if the shutdown persists. In such a scenario, then, Gold is likely to remain attractive and challenge the $4,000 mark.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD trades around $3,870, and technical readings in the daily chart show that it keeps posting higher highs, in line with the dominant bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains at extreme readings, ticking marginally higher at around 81 but mostly flat. The Momentum indicator, in the meantime, resumed its advance above its 100 line, with plenty of room to advance. Finally, the pair keeps rallying above all bullish moving averages, with the nearest being the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,699.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD has corrected overbought readings, while the risk remains skewed to the upside. The RSI indicator turned flat after easing sub-70, while the Momentum indicator still aims south, although well above its 100 line while losing downward steam. Finally, moving averages maintain their upward slopes well below the current level, with the 20 SMA providing support at around $3,828.

Support levels: 3,853.25 3,828.00 3,807.05

Resistance levels: 3,895.00 3,910.00 3,930.00

Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.

Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural gas price activated with the main indicators’ positivity, breaching the resistance at $3.290 level, to settle within the main bullish channel’s levels, achieving some gains by reaching 3.365.

Forming main support at $3.280 level, besides the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, we expect forming a new bullish rally to surpass $3.410 level, to target the next station at 3.350.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.300 and $3.530

Trend forecast: Bullish