• Silver rebounds modestly on Thursday, trimming intraday losses after sliding to a five-day low on Wednesday.
• Dip-buying emerges near $41.50 support, with prices hovering near the 50-period SMA.
• A breakdown below $41.50 could expose the next support base around $40.50.

Silver (XAG/USD) trims earlier intraday losses on Thursday, recovering from a five-day low marked on Wednesday in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cut decision. At the time of writing, the white metal is trading near $41.81, rebounding from an intraday trough of $41.20.

The move reflects dip-buying interest around familiar support zones, despite a firm US Dollar (USD), as broader sentiment remains cautious following a sharp pullback from record highs on Wednesday.

On the 4-hour chart, the $41.50 region has emerged as a critical support zone, highlighted by repeated lower wicks showing buyers stepping in to defend the level. Price action is currently flirting with the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $41.78, which has aligned with this area to form a strong short-term floor. A clear break below this level could expose the next support base around $40.50.

Resistance remains layered above, with the 21-period SMA at $42.16 acting as the first barrier to recovery. A push through this level would bring $42.50 into play, followed by a potential retest of the fresh 14-year high at $42.97. A sustained break beyond that milestone could expose the psychological $43.50 handle and open the path for further gains.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 47 after cooling from overbought conditions. A move back above the 50 midline would hint at renewed bullish pressure, while a drop under 45 could reinforce the case for another leg lower. For now, Silver appears locked in a range, with $41.50 providing support and the $42.00-42.20 zone capping the upside.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,645.43

• Better-than-anticipated United States macroeconomic data backed the US Dollar.
• US indexes remain in the green after Fed’s decision, DJIA reaches record highs.
• XAU/USD corrects overbought conditions, additional slides likely if $3,626 gives up.

Spot Gold extends its slide on Thursday, bottoming during American trading hours at $3,627.98. The US Dollar (USD) gathered near-term momentum following the release of encouraging United States (US) data.

The country reported that Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 13 rose by 231K, better than the 240K anticipated and easing from the previous 264K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey surged to 23.2 from the previous -0.3 while largely surpassing the expected 2.3.

Other than that, Gold eases on the back of increased demand for high-yielding assets. Wall Street trades in the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reaching fresh record highs in pre-opening trading. American indexes advance on the back of the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to cut interest rates following its September meeting.

Officials suggested similar cuts will come in October and December, as the dot-plot showed two more rate cuts in the docket for 2025, and one more for 2026. As a result, equities surged on the back of easing borrowing costs.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep its benchmark rate on hold at 4% early Thursday, as widely anticipated. Policymakers voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, also meeting expectations. The event, which included no fresh forecast or a press conference, had no impact on financial markets.

The central banks’ week will end with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing its decision on monetary policy early on Friday. The central bank is expected to hold its fire this time and keep interest rates at 0.5%, but rate hikes are in the docket for future meetings amid hawkish comments from BoJ officials.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it is down for a second consecutive day, hovering in the $3,640 region. The decline is modest and seems corrective in the medium term, as technical indicators in the mentioned time frame eased from their extreme peaks but remain close to overbought readings. At the same time, the pair develops far above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north at around $3,547, in line with the dominant bullish trend. The weekly low at $3,626.66 is the immediate support level, with a clear downward extension below it, opening the door for additional slides.

The near-term picture for the bright metal is bearish. The 4-hour chart shows that a mildly bullish 20 SMA cap advances, currently at around $3,675.00, while the Momentum indicator heads south almost vertically, well below its 100 line. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also aims lower within negative levels at around 43, supportive on another leg south. Finally, the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level, confirming the slide remains corrective and there’s a long way to go before Gold changes course.

Support levels: 3,626.70 3,611.70 3,600.00

Resistance levels: 3,655.90 3,675.00 3,693.40

• Gold holds the pullback early Thursday, having renewed record highs at $3,708 in a knee-jerk reaction to the Fed announcement.
• US Dollar recovers on Fed Chair Powell’s cautious stance on further policy easing.
• Gold retreats from extreme overbought conditions on the daily chart, keeping buying interest alive.  

Gold is licking its wounds near $3,650 in Thursday’s Asian trades, having stalled its pullback from fresh record highs of $3,707 reached in an initial reaction to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements.  

Gold assesses Fed’s interest rate outlook ahead of data

Gold witnessed intense volatility during the Fed event on Wednesday, initially spiking to a new lifetime high before falling as low as $3,646 to settle the day just above $3,650.

Fed delivered on the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut but the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called Dot Plot chart, showed that the Fed policymakers project two additional rate cuts this year.

Markets read this as dovish and smashed the US Dollar (USD) across the board, spiking up Gold to new record highs.

However, the Greenback staged an impressive comeback alongside US Treasury bond yields after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, in his post-policy meeting press conference, adopted a measured rhetoric on further policy easing.

Powell signaled caution on future rate cut outlook by saying that “the policy action as a risk-management cut in response to the weakening labour market and the central bank is in a ‘meeting-by-meeting’ situation,” per Reuters.

The resurgent USD demand and the Fed’s restraint triggered a pullback in the non-yielding Gold.

Traders are now pricing in a 87.7% chance of another 25 bps cut at the Fed’s October meeting, compared to a 74.3% probability a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

With the dovish expectations surrounding the Fed still intact, any downside in Gold is likely to be seen as a good bargain-buying opportunity, keeping the uptrend alive.

Markets now look forward to the mid-tier US Jobless Claims data for fresh trading impetus.

Additionally, geopolitical headlines and US President Donald Trump’s commentary could also play their part in driving Gold price action in the sessions ahead.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold buyers seem to be given another chance for a sustained uptrend as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has finally eased considerably from the extreme overbought zone, from 80 to 72 levels, as of writing.

If dip-buying emerges and gathers strength, Gold could retest the record high at $3,708. A daily candlestick closing above that level will open doors toward the $3,750 region.

However, Gold could challenge this week’s low at $3,627 if the corrective decline extends.

Further down, the $3,600 round figure will be tested, below which the previous week’s low of $3,578 will be next on sellers’ radars.

The GBPAUD confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario by providing positive close above the support of the bullish channel at 2.0260, taking advantage of providing positive momentum by stochastic, to notice its rally towards 2.0610, attempting to surpass 23.6%Fibonacci correction level.

The continuation of facing the positive pressures will ease the mission of surpassing the moving average 55 near 2.0610, opening the way for recording several gains that might extend towards 2.0695 and 2.0765.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.0465 and 2.0610

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price is affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bullish attack by reaching below $1400,00, to provide mixed trading to keep its stability main stability above the critical support at $1355.00.

We expect the continuation of forming mixed trading until gathering the positive momentum, to pave the way for holding above $1400.00, to begin recording extra gains that might begin at $1435.00, while the decline below the critical support and holding below it will force the price to activate the negative track, which forces it to suffer several losses by reaching $1315.00 and $1300.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1355.00 and $1395.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend

Rising But Cautious Momentum

Although gold notched another record on Tuesday, momentum had already been showing signs of fatigue, reflected in a narrow-range session despite the breakout. Price remains within a resistance zone defined by multiple technical markers and prior hesitation around the $3,675 level. From the $3,311 swing low in late July, gold advanced by $396, or nearly 12%, with only three brief one-day pullbacks along the way. While this reflects strong demand, it also raises the risk that the market may be due for a deeper corrective phase, until recently when there were two days of lower highs and lower lows.

Short-Term Support Under Pressure

For most of its advance, gold has held above its rising 8-Day moving average, currently at $3,651. That price area was successfully tested today with the day’s low of $3,646. A decisive close below today’s low would also represent a break beneath the 8-Day average, signaling short-term weakness. Furthermore, a decline through Monday’s low of $3,627 would add further downside confirmation as that day’s low also found support around the 8-Day average.

Key Downside and Upside Levels

Should sellers press their advantage, support levels to monitor include last week’s low at $3,576 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $3,557. The 20-Day moving average, now rising at $3,532, may align with that retracement and may serve as the next dynamic support. On the other hand, if bulls regain control with a decisive rally above today’s $3,707 high, upside targets reemerge at $3,734, followed by a confluence zone between $3,782 and $3,812.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,687.07

• The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates for the first time in 2025.
• US President Donald Trump is likely to add noise to the Fed’s decision.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its record rally, in pause ahead of Fed’s decision.

Gold prices stand near the recent record high at $3,703.20 a troy ounce,  trimming early losses. The US Dollar (USD) found some modest demand throughout the first half of the day, but gave it up as the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision looms. The central bank is widely anticipated to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) after a two-day meeting, delivering the first interest rate cut for this 2025.

The Fed is ready to drop the hawkish stance adopted earlier in the year, when United States (US) President Donald Trump announced his massive world-spread tariffs. Chair Jerome Powell and co. Noted the potential upward risks to inflation associated with trade levies, and decided to pause their loosening cycle ahead of more clarity.

President Trump has claimed multiple times that the Fed’s decision to keep rates at high levels damages the American economy, and came to the point of threatening to fire Powell, despite the fact that he can not do so. Calling Powell names and firing and suing other Fed officials have been part of Trump’s pressure strategy.

Anyway, the day comes when the Fed is widely anticipated to deliver, but the question is what. The Fed will hardly go for something different from what is actually priced in. The question is what officials would do from now on. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) or dot plot will paint a clearer picture of whether policymakers plan to cut rates two times this year, as previously reported, or if they will go for three, as the market believes.

If the SEP keeps showing two interest rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, that would be considered hawkish, while three this year and two the next one, will confirm what the market anticipates and lean to the dovish side.

Once the Fed makes its announcement, it would be interesting to see what President Trump has to say about it. Most likely, Trump will stick to his view that Powell is moving too slowly and too late.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Ahead of the announcement, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows that it trades around its opening level, still largely overbought. Technical indicators turned flat within extreme levels, but are far from signaling an upcoming slide. At the same time, the pair is far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heading firmly north at around $3,530 while further extending its advance above the 100 and 200 SMAs.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD bounced after briefly piercing a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while technical indicators recovered their upward slopes after correcting overbought readings, in line with additional gains ahead. At the same time, the 100 and 200 SMAs accelerated north far below the shorter one, also supporting an upward continuation.

 Support levels: 3,670.20 3,657.30 3,642.00

Resistance levels: 3,705.00 3,720.00 3,735.00

The EURJPY pair took advantage of the extra positive momentum due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, noticing by the above image the price attempt to breach the barrier at 173.50, to confirm the continuation of the positivity that depends on the stability of the trading within the main bullish channel levels that appears in the above image.

The price should provide new positive close above the current barrier, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations that are located near 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level near 175.20, while the price return to settle below the current barrier will force it to activate the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 172.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.00 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair took advantage of the extra positive momentum due to stochastic reach to the overbought level, noticing by the above image the price attempt to breach the barrier at 173.50, to confirm the continuation of the positivity that depends on the stability of the trading within the main bullish channel levels that appears in the above image.

The price should provide new positive close above the current barrier, to ease the mission of targeting the positive stations that are located near 174.25 reaching 1.809%Fibonacci extension level near 175.20, while the price return to settle below the current barrier will force it to activate the bearish correctional track, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 172.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 173.00 and 174.25

Trend forecast: Bullish

Despite the weak trading of Platinum price recently, its stability above the moving average 55 reinforces the stability of the extra support at $1382.00, besides stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, these factors assist confirming the continuation of the positivity, to keep waiting for breaching the obstacle of $1408,00 to ease the mission of achieving the main targets that begin at $1435.00.

The risk of changing the main trend is represented by attempting to break the critical support at $1355.00, forcing it to form strong bearish waves, to expect reaching $1302.00 initially reaching to 38.2%Fibonacci correction level at $1255.00. 

The expected trading range for today is between $1375.00 and $1425.00

Trend forecast: Bullish