Spot Gold is trading higher Wednesday, however, the main trend remains down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the lower top at $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. Monday’s low at $4,110.87 is the immediate downside trigger. A trade through that price will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The long-term retracement zone is $4,319.61 to $4,230.51. Gold broke through the lower boundary Monday, turning the zone into resistance. The 50-day moving average at $4,323.00 is also nearby.

The 200-day moving average at $4,539.29 is providing long-term resistance and trend direction. Gold is trading below both moving averages.

Wednesday’s high at $4,202.39 is only a high at this point. It does not establish a new top or change the swing-chart structure. The next major support is the August swing bottom at $3,996.06, followed by the main bottom at $3,942.10.

What to Watch

The PCE report hits with the October hike trade already pulled back and a December increase still heavily priced. Williams bought the market some time. Barr isn’t convinced the Fed can afford it. Non-Farm Payrolls follow on Friday, so whatever PCE starts, the jobs data gets to finish.

A softer core PCE number could extend the pullback in yields and give buyers a shot at $4,230.51. A firm reading would leave Wednesday’s rally looking like short-covering and put Monday’s low back in play.

The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the daily swing chart. Buyers came in off Monday’s $4,110.87 low. Wednesday morning’s rally remains well short of the level gold broke through Monday. Sellers are still sitting there, untouched by the bounce. Buyers haven’t touched $4,230.51 yet.

Natural Gas (NG) is currently trading at $3.03 on the 1-hour chart. It recently broke below a rising trendline and both the 50 and 100 hour moving averages, and is now trading below all three. Currently, NG is attempting to find support near the $3.00 level. However, as the rising trendline has recently been broken, the 100 hour moving average has crossed below the 50 hour moving average, and the 50 hour moving average is below the 200 hour moving average, the recent price action shows that the market structure is bearish and further work is needed by buyers to change the overall trend.

Initially, I would expect resistance to be found near the $3.10 level. Above $3.10, expect additional resistance to be found near the $3.20 and $3.27 levels. As mentioned previously, further support is found near the $3.00 level, with additional support expected near the $2.95 and $2.86 levels.

Rising timeframes of lower trading volume have been dominated by the bearish trend, and the RSI has recently been trending lower. Until $3.10 is reclaimed, I expect further bearish price action. I would expect resistance to be found near the $3.20 level and support to be found near the $3.00 level. A move below $3.00 would open further bearish price action near the $2.86 and $2.95 levels.

Coffee price successfully held above the support level near 269.00, forming strong bullish waves and achieving some of the previously suggested gains by currently reaching 288.00.

As shown on the attached chart, stochastic is approaching the 80 level, increasing the chances of the price gathering the positive momentum needed to resume its bullish attack, which could target 299.25, followed by 311.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 283.00 and 299.25.

Trend forecast: Bullish

According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October has increased to 70.3%. Traders expect that the federal funds rate would be raised by 100 bps by the end of 2027. Expectations of a series of rate hikes put significant pressure on gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar gained some ground against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on developments in debt market. Stronger dollar put additional pressure on gold in today’s trading session.

I’d note that one of the reasons for the sell-off in gold markets could be technical. The strong pullback in debt markets could have forced investors to raise cash elsewhere, forcing them to sell gold.

Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4160 – $4180. In case gold manages to settle below the $4160 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

Natural gas price remains stable within the bullish trend, fluctuating near $3.120 while maintaining its stability above the additional support at $2.830. The current sideways movement is attributed to conflicting signals from the main indicators. Therefore, we will continue waiting for the price to successfully break above the 55-period moving average at $3.240, which would open the way toward the next bullish targets, starting at $3.320 and extending toward $3.520, respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.000 and $3.320.

Trend forecast: Bullish.

GBPJPY has been moving sideways recently, fluctuating again above the support level at 208.10 while attempting to gather the additional negative momentum required to confirm the bearish continuation previously suggested.

Currently, with the Stochastic indicator slipping below the 50 level, the chances of confirming a break below the current support are increasing, which would open the way toward the next downside targets at 207.40 and 206.80, respectively. However, failure to break the support could force the pair into further mixed trading, with a potential retest of the resistance barrier near 210.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 206.80 and 209.30.

Trend forecast: Bearish

EURUSD declined in its latest intraday trading, amid continued negative pressure surrounding the pair, reinforced by the dominance of the main short-term bearish trend, with price moving along a minor trend line supporting this path. The pair also continues to trade below EMA50, which acts as dynamic resistance and adds further downside pressure, while the relative strength indicators are generating negative signals after reaching deeply overbought levels.

2026.09.28 2026.09.28
Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 28.09.2026

Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/

Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I have identified entry signals for intraday traders.

Gold continues to fall within a short-term downtrend.

Major Takeaways

• USCrude: Oil has moved from the resistance B of 95.44–94.79 to the first bearish target.
• XAUUSD: Gold is approaching the Target Zone 2 of 4,158–4,135.
• EURUSD: The euro is testing the Gold Zone of 1.1375–1.1367.

Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis

Oil continues to trade within a short-term downtrend. Last week, the first sell target at the 91.84 level was reached. The second sell target is 88.25. Today, hold short positions opened earlier near the resistance level B at 95.44–94.79.

An alternative scenario may emerge if the price breaks through the resistance B of 102.63–101.32 and consolidates above it during the US trading session. In this case, the short-term trend will reverse to the upside. As a result, consider buying with a target in the upper Target Zone.

USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:

Hold short trades opened near resistance B at 95.44–94.79. TakeProfit: 88.25. StopLoss: at breakeven.

Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis

Gold continues to fall within a short-term downtrend. Today, the price has hit the second sell target of 4,235 from the resistance B of 4,415–4,398. The price is approaching the Target Zone 2 of 4,158–4,135. If this zone is broken through, the next target will be the Gold Zone 2 of 4,049–4,038.

As a result, consider selling on pullbacks today. The nearest strong resistance area is between 4,295 and 4,284.

XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance A at 4,295–4,284. TakeProfit: 4,233, 4,171. StopLoss: 4,321.

Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis

The euro continues to trade in a short-term downtrend. The price is testing the Gold Zone of 1.1375–1.1367. If this zone is pierced, the next downside target will be the Target Zone 2 of 1.1291–1.1274.

Consider short positions on pullbacks from strong resistance levels at 1.1451–1.1443. If the price moves into this area, short positions can be considered with targets at 1.1405 and 1.1359.

EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:

Sell near resistance A at 1.1451–1.1443. TakeProfit: 1.1405, 1.1359. StopLoss: 1.1472.

Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.

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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

GBPJPY achieved the initially suggested bearish targets during Friday’s trading, reaching 208.00 before forming some sideways trading as the 208.10 level continues to act as important support against further declines.

We recommend waiting for confirmation of the break, with a negative close below 208.10. This would strengthen the chances of targeting additional bearish levels, starting at 206.80 and extending toward 205.00 over the medium term. Meanwhile, the risk of a trend reversal and the beginning of a bullish move would require a strong positive surge that enables the price to stabilize above 210.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 207.00 and 209.30

Trend forecast: Bearish