XAU/USD Current price: $3,390.12

• The US Dollar remains under selling pressure amid President Trump tariffs threats.
• The Bank of England delivered a hawkish cut, Canadian employment figures next.
• XAU/USD lacks momentum but keeps pushing higher near $3,400.

Gold price remains stable on Thursday, having flirted with the $3,400 mark early in Asian hours but retreating afterwards. The FX board is all about the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Late on Wednesday, Trump said he will impose a 100% tariff on imports of semiconductors and chips, but not for companies that are building in the US. Also, he stepped up pressure on Russia, saying he would impose additional 25% levies on Chinese goods over China’s purchases of Russian oil. Earlier in the week, Trump hit India with extra tariffs of up to 50% for the same reason. Trump also threatened additional 15% levies on Japanese imports.

Other than that, the Bank of England (BoE) announced its decision on monetary policy. As widely anticipated, the central bank delivered a 25-basis-point (bp) cut, leaving the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%. The decision, however, was considered hawkish, as four out of nine Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members opted for a no-change. Additionally, one of the cut voters preferred a 50 bps trim. The central bank repeated that it will maintain a gradual and careful approach to further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint.

On Friday, Canada will publish its monthly employment report, expected to show the country added 13.5K new jobs in July. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen ticking higher to 7% from the current 6.9%.

Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers will also gather attention amid mounting speculation that the central bank may trim interest rates in September.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD resumed its advance after the US opening and trades at around $3,390 a troy ounce. The daily chart shows gold surpassed its previous weekly peak, but there was no major breakout, with the pair still struggling to extend gains. A mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps acting as dynamic support at around $3,350, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes below the shorter one, supportive of a bullish extension. Finally, technical indicators turned marginally higher within positive levels, skewing the risk to the upside despite lacking momentum.

Bulls are in charge in the near term. The XAU/USD pair 4-hour chart shows technical indicators resumed their advances within positive levels, while buyers keep defending the downside around a bullish 20 SMA now at $3,374.50. The longer moving averages remain flat below the shorter one, failing to provide clear directional clues. The XAU/USD needs to run past $3,407 and settle above the level to be able to extend gains heading into the weekly close.

Support levels: 3,374.50 3,350.00 3.338.60

Resistance levels: 3,407.75 3,420.10 3,414.65

• Gold price looks for a fresh trigger to break above the key resistance of $3,400.
• Fed officials turn dovish on the monetary policy outlook.
• US President Trump is expected to announce the tariff penalty on China for buying Oil from Russia.

Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to break above the key level of $3,400.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal hesitates to extend upside even as Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have shown support for interest rate cuts in the remainder of the year.

On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Lisa Cook argued in favor of reducing interest rates amid growing labor market concerns. “The economy is slowing and the Fed needs to respond to the slowing economy,” Kashkari said in an interview with CNBC. Kashkari added, “It may still be relevant in the near term to begin adjusting the policy rate, and two rate cuts this year still seem appropriate.”

The CME FedWatch tool showed that traders have almost fully priced in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction in the September policy meeting.

Theoretically, lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Meanwhile, resurfacing United States (US) President Donald Trump’s tariff fears are expected to improve the demand for safe-haven assets, such as Gold. On Wednesday, Trump stated that he could impose a penalty on China in the form of tariffs for buying Oil from Russia. The same day, Trump increased import duties on India by 25% for buying Russian Oil.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades close to the upper boundary of the Symmetrical Triangle formation around $3,400, which is plotted from April’s high near $3,500. The lower boundary of the yellow metal is placed from the May’s low of $3,120.85.

The precious metal holds slightly above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $3,350, suggesting that the near-term trend is on the upside.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00, which indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245

Alternatively, the Gold price will enter uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold daily chart

The EURJPY pair leaned clearly above the extra support at 170.45, activating with the main indicators, achieving some gains by its fluctuation above the intraday barrier at 171.90.

Noting that the stability of the trading above 171.90 level is important, to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack, to expect the extension of the trading towards 172.65, then targeting the bullish channel’s resistance at 173.80, while the return below 171.90 will force it to form new bearish correctional trading before resuming the suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.45 and 172.65

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price didn’t move any thing until this moment, announcing its surrender to the dominance of the sideways bias temporarily until ending the contradiction between the main indicators, reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the bullish channel’s support at $4.0500, besides the continuation of forming extra support at $4.2600 level, reducing the chances for suffering any extra losses.

While the price success in gaining the positive momentum will provide chance to begin achieving some gains, to expect its rally to $4.6300 initially, attempting to step above 100%Fibonacci correction extension level at $4.7500, to open the way for recording more of the gains in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price didn’t move any thing until this moment, announcing its surrender to the dominance of the sideways bias temporarily until ending the contradiction between the main indicators, reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the bullish channel’s support at $4.0500, besides the continuation of forming extra support at $4.2600 level, reducing the chances for suffering any extra losses.

While the price success in gaining the positive momentum will provide chance to begin achieving some gains, to expect its rally to $4.6300 initially, attempting to step above 100%Fibonacci correction extension level at $4.7500, to open the way for recording more of the gains in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.2600 and $4.6300

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver (XAG/USD) gains 0.39% to $37.88 amid broad US Dollar weakness; DXY drops over 0.50%.
• Market sentiment lifted by corporate earnings and Apple–Trump joint $100B investment announcement.
• Trump threatens 100% tariffs on foreign-made chips, exempts US-based production.

Silver Price advances during the North American session, up by 0.39% as the Greenback weakens more than 0.50%, as revealed by the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $37.88 after hitting a low of $37.31.

Sentiment improved due to earnings and Trump’s threat to impose 100% duties on chips. However, an exemption was made for companies producing items in the US, as Apple CEO and Trump announced a fresh $100 billion investment in the country.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

From a technical perspective, the Silver price is neutral-biased, from a price action point of view, capped on the upside by the 20-day SMA at $38.04. However, sentiment turned slightly bullish, as seen by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which cracked the index neutral line three days ago.

If XAG/USD ends daily above the 20-day SMA, look for a rally toward $39.00. Further resistance lies above, with the July 25 high of $39.19, followed by the YTD peak at $39.52.

Conversely, if XAG/USD finishes the session below $38.00, this could prompt sellers to drive the grey metal below he August 5 daily low of $37.31, sponsoring a slide towards $37.00. On further strength, the grey metal could reach the 50-day SMA at $36.73.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Retained Long-Term Support

Potential support is indicated around a long-term uptrend line and anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) line (light blue) begun from the 2024 trend low. The AVWAP line is now at $2.96, and it can be used like a moving average line. Notice that although natural gas dipped below the AVWAP briefly the past few days, it quickly recovered. There was only one daily close below that line, which was on Monday.

Given the long-term nature of the indicators marking support, a bottom may have been reached. Therefore, today’s upside breakout should be followed by additional signs of improving demand. If this scenario does not materialize and natural gas continues to test the support zone, a more substantial consolidation base may develop.

Above $3.13 Shows Strength

A sustained breakout above a recent interim swing high at $3.13 will provide the next sign of strength. But the more significant price level is around the lower swing high from July 29 at $3.19. That is also a weekly high. A sustained breakout above that level will trigger a bullish reversal as a lower swing high will be broken, and a weekly reversal will trigger as well. Today’s advance increases the chance that a higher swing low will be established but a rally above it will provide a stronger indication.

Weekly Bull Pattern Possible

If the week ended today, a potentially weekly bull hammer would be established. That would provide another sign that the support zone may hold. Nonetheless, since there are only two more trading days to the week, the week may yet end with a bull hammer candlestick pattern. If it does, a breakout above the weekly high will provide a bullish reversal signal on the weekly chart starting next week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price retraces to near $3,360 as three-day upside move hits pause.
• Traders remain confident of Fed’s interest rate cuts in September.
• US President Trump will announce Fed Kugler’s replacement this week.

Gold price (XAU/USD) corrects to near $3,360.00 on Wednesday after a three-day winning streak. The precious metal retraces even as traders remain increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its monetary-expansion cycle in the September policy meeting.

Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Traders raised Fed dovish bets significantly as the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June has shown signs of a slowdown in the labor demand.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has stated that he will announce Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s replacement this week. Market experts believe that the entry of Trump’s candidate in the rate-setting committee will favor lower interest rates, given that Trump has criticized the Fed, especially Chairman Jerome Powel, a number of times for supporting a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Also, US President Trump has narrowed list of potential candidates as the successor of Jerome Powell. We’re also looking at the Fed chair, and that’s down to four people right now, Two Kevins and two other people,” Trump said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. His comments signal that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh are potential candidates to step in place of Powell.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price trades inside the Symmetrical Triangle formation, which indicates indecisiveness among market participants. The yellow metal oscillates around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades near $3,323, indicating a sideways trend.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00, suggesting a sharp volatility contraction.

Looking down, the Gold price would fall towards the round-level support of $3,200 and the May 15 low at $3,121, if it breaks below the May 29 low of $3,245

Alternatively, the Gold price will enter an uncharted territory if it breaks above the psychological level of $3,500 decisively. Potential resistances would be $3,550 and $3,600.

Gold daily chart

The (Brent) price rose in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the critical support level at $67.50, providing positive momentum that assisted it to achieve these gains, with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels.

This performance comes amid the price’s affection by breaking bullish trend line on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, forming dynamic resistance that prevents any recovery attempt on the near-term basis.

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The (Brent) price rose in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the critical support level at $67.50, providing positive momentum that assisted it to achieve these gains, with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels.

This performance comes amid the price’s affection by breaking bullish trend line on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, forming dynamic resistance that prevents any recovery attempt on the near-term basis.

BestTradingSignal.com – Professional Trading Signals

Get high-accuracy trading signals delivered directly to your Telegram. Subscribe to specialized packages tailored for the world’s top markets:

VIP Trading Signals Performance – July 28 – August 1, 2025

To view the full performance report for this week, visit the following link:

  View Full Performance Report