XAU/USD Current price: $3,394.97

• Fiscal and political woes in the United States undermine demand for the US Dollar.
• White House pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mounts.
• XAU/USD aims to extend its gains beyond the $3,400 in the near term.

Spot Gold surged in the European session Monday, flirting with the $3,400 level after Wall Street’s opening. The strong momentum in the bright metal comes from the broad US Dollar’s (USD) weakness, as the American currency keeps suffering from fiscal and political woes.

Trade-related tensions took centre stage in the absence of relevant data, with the focus particularly in negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). Undergoing negotiations between the two economies is not enough to pause threats and retaliatory measures announcements. On the one hand, the White House noted that the deadline, set for August 1, will not be changed, while a base tariffs could be set at 30%. The EU, in the meantime, announced it’s studying retaliatory levies, should the US moves forward.

Other than that, Republican House Anna Paulina Luna is referring Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to the Department of Justice (DOJ) for criminal charges, accusing him of perjury on two occasions. Additionally, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposed a review of the whole Fed. “What we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful,” Bessent said on Monday.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it largely recovered above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 at around $3,374, opening the door for a recovery towards the top of the range. The same chart shows the pair is well above a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), which consolidates at around $3,330, while the 100 SMA maintains its form bullish slope far below the shorter one, in line with the dominant bullish trend. Finally, technical indicators remain within positive levels with uneven upward strength, yet still suggesting higher highs ahead.

The near-term picture is supportive of another leg north, as technical indicators in the 4-hour chart reached overbought readings. The Momentum indicator maintains its almost vertical slope, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator decelerated, but keeps aiming north at around 71. At the same time, XAU/USD is far above all its moving averages, with the 100 and 200 SMA lacking directional strength, but the 20 SMA heading higher above the longer ones, skewing the risk to the upside.

Support levels: 3,390.10 3,374.50 3,350.00

Resistance levels: 3,403.20 3,417.90 3,430.35

Monthly Bearish Signal

The higher timeframe monthly chart has also turned bearish. Last week a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern triggered on the monthly chart. Given today’s bearish price action, it needs to be considered as the longer-term patterns influence the shorter. However, it is not just the one-month breakdown that is of concern. A bullish breakout of an inside month triggered the month before in June. Therefore, this month’s breakdown is also a failure of the bullish signal the month before. Failed breakouts can result in sharp moves in the opposite direction. Nonetheless, it indicates downside pressure on the price of natural gas.

Prior Corrections Point Lower

For perspective, a bearish measured move (light blue) was added to the current downswing on the chart. It matches part of the prior bearish correction that began following the March trend high on a percentage basis. Moreover, the bearish correction prior to March completed after a 31.6% decline in the price of natural gas. Interestingly, the target from that measured move matches a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.80. But for that level to be reached higher and potentially significant support would need to be broken.

Lower Uptrend Line is a Target

If the interim May swing low at $3.10 is broken, the next lower target zone becomes more likely to be reached. That low is also a monthly low from May. There are two dynamic support lines of significance. A long-term rising trendline is in purple, and it connects to the August 2024 swing low. It represents the lower boundary area of a long-term rising trend channel.

Earlier this year resistance was seen on several occasions around the top channel line. Once there is a reversal from one side of a pattern, there is a possibility that price eventually reaches the other side. Given the second break below an internal uptrend line today, that lower line comes into focus. In addition, there is AVWAP line that is close to converging with the uptrend line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Dow Inc. (DOW) stock declined in its latest intraday trading, following a rebound from resistance at the 50-day SMA. The stock remains under the control of a prevailing downtrend, trading along a short-term descending trendline. However, a potential bullish crossover in the Relative Strength Index is beginning to emerge, which may help limit further losses.

Therefore we expect the stock to decline in upcoming sessions, as long as resistance at $31.00 holds, targeting the key support level at $25.00.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish.

Technically, the market is now testing the 50% retracement of its short-term range ($3.149 to $3.629) at $3.389. A sustained move below this key level would likely signal additional downside momentum and embolden bearish traders. For now, price action suggests a near-term correction rather than a structural breakdown, but much hinges on whether bulls defend this support area.

Are Supply Fundamentals Providing a Ceiling on Rallies?

Supply remains robust, and with wind generation expected to remain light, gas-fired power demand is elevated. Still, the modest step back in heat intensity and the market’s inability to punch through long-term moving averages point to traders being wary of chasing higher prices, especially ahead of updated EIA storage data and further weather model revisions later in the week.

Market Forecast: Bearish Near-Term Outlook

Given the inability to clear overhead resistance and the bearish revision in weekend weather forecasts, the near-term outlook for U.S. natural gas leans bearish. A decisive move below $3.389 would confirm downside momentum, potentially drawing prices back toward $3.30. Traders should watch for further updates to heat forecasts and monitor how the market reacts to the current support zone in the coming sessions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

• Gold price looks to build on last week’s rebound from six-day lows, retakes $3,350.
• The US Dollar holds steady amid a slightly upbeat mood, but tariff angst lingers.
• Gold price stays above key daily moving averages as the RSI holds above the midline.  

Gold price is extending the turnaround from six-day lows of $3,310 early Monday, making another attempt above the $3,350 barrier.  

Gold price looks north amid trade woes, Trump-Powell spat

Gold buyers keep the upper hand as the US Dollar (USD) pauses its late rebound on Friday, entering a consolidative mode, with attention turning to Tuesday’s speech by US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell for further trading impetus.

Monday’s data-docket is a quiet one, and hence, tariff-related developments will continue to dominate the sentiment around the USD-denominated Gold price.

Traders remain expectant of encouraging earnings reports from American tech giants, including Alphabet Inc., due later this week.

Despite a mild optimism, investors remain wary about US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans against the European Union (EU) as the August 1 deadline approaches.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Friday that he is still confident a deal could be reached with the EU.

The Financial Times (FT) late Friday reported three people briefed on the talks as saying that Trump is eyeing at least a minimum tariff of 15% to 20% in a deal with the EU.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) quoted some sources reporting on Monday that “US officials have informed the EU’s trade chief that President Trump is likely to demand further concessions in ongoing trade talks, including a higher baseline tariff of 15% or more on most European goods, a significant increase from the previously discussed 10%.”

In response, the bloc warned of strong retaliation if no deal is reached with the US by August 1, per the WSJ.

Lingering tariff tensions bode well for the traditional safe-haven Gold price as markets digest the Japanese political drama.

The Japanese ruling coalition, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its ally Komeito, lost control of the upper house in an election on Sunday, further weakening Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s hold as a tariff deadline looms, Reuters reports.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced ‘buy the fact’ trades on the expected election outcome, dragging USD/JPY lower. The renewed USD/JPY weakness capped the USD’s recovery, helping Gold price build on the previous upswing.

Furthermore, the ongoing criticism of Fed Chair Powell by Trump also prompts traders to temporarily forgo the USD in search of safety in the bright metal.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price is holding comfortably above all major Simple Moving Averages (SMA) while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points higher above the midline.

The technical setup, therefore, appears in favor of Gold buyers, with the immediate resistance located at the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the April record rally at $3377.

Further north, the $3,400 round level will challenge bearish commitments, with more upside opening toward the static resistance at around $3,440.

Alternatively, strong support is aligned at around $3,330, the confluence of the 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA.

Sellers must find a strong foothold below that demand area to test the 38.2% Fibo level of the same rally at $3,297 before targeting the July low of $3,283.

The EURJPY pair declined in its last intraday levels, to gain a positive momentum that might assist it to recover and rise again, and it attempts to offload its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the emergence of the negative signals from there, to test a main bullish trend line on the short-term basis, accompanied by its lean on the support of its EMA50, reinforcing the importance of this area as a strong support that prevents the price turn to the bearish track on the near-term basis.

Therefore, our expectations suggest the (EURJPY) price rise in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at 172.25, to target the critical resistance at 173.25 preparing to attack it.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.00 and 174.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Bull Hammer Breakout Triggers

On Thursday, crude oil triggered a breakout of the hammer and rallied to test resistance around the lower line of the bear flag pattern, which was a support line before. The one-day bullish reversal hit a high of $67.55, at the time of this writing and looks likely to close in a similar position. That would confirm the hammer breakout with a daily close above Wednesday’s high and at the top of the day’s trading range. Trading continues near the highs of the day so it is possible a new high will be reached before today’s session ends.

Rising in Resistance Zone

The 20-Day MA, which represents potential resistance and is now at $67.69, is set to converge with the lower boundary line of the flag. Notice that the 20-Day line (purple) was recognized as resistance over many days the past couple of weeks as the flag formed. When two or more indicators identify a similar potential resistance zone, either signs of resistance are seen or an upside breakout triggers.

A bull breakout above today’s high and then the 20-Day MA would show further strength. However, the rally would be rising into the flag consolidation zone where it could encounter resistance easily along the way. There is also the 200-Day MA, currently at $68.67, representing dynamic resistance across the top of the flag.

Reversal of Breakdown?

Since a rally would be counter to the bearish breakdown of the flag and channel, it may be the least expected outcome. Therefore, it could happen and may surprise on the upside given recent spikes in volatility seen since the lower swing high in April.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Gold price posts modest gains around $3,350 in Monday’s early Asian session. 
• Economic uncertainty and lower interest rates boost safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
• The upbear UoM survey might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price ( XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,350 during the early Asian session on Monday. Uncertainty around trade talks is likely to support Gold’s safe-haven demand as a tariff deadline with the US looms. Traders will take more cues from the speech from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell later on Tuesday. 

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that August 1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the US. President Donald Trump’s tariff deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners on April 2, but White House officials now maintain that August 1 is a firm deadline. The uncertainty and concerns over the new tariff rates could boost the yellow metal, as it’s seen as the ultimate safe-haven asset during uncertain times. 

Additionally, the dovish remarks from the Fed officials might lift a non-yielding asset. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the US central bank should cut interest rates at the July meeting amid mounting risks to the economy. Analysts expect the Fed will maintain its current rates at the end of this month, with a chance standing at 94% for a hold and 6% for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut.

On the other hand, the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand might weigh on the USD-denominated Gold price in the near term. The University of Michigan’s (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 61.8 in July from 60.7 in June. This reading came in stronger than the market expectation of 61.5.

Trade policy remained fluid throughout the week. Trump reduced Indonesian tariffs to 19% from 32% and signaled progress with Vietnam, suggesting the administration may pursue bilateral agreements before implementing broader measures. June Consumer Price Index data already showed tariff-related inflation lifting costs of core goods including audio equipment and furnishings, raising questions about Federal Reserve policy response.

Federal Reserve Independence Under Fire as Policy Outlook Changes

Markets experienced sharp volatility when rumors emerged that Trump planned to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell. While Trump later clarified “We’re not planning on doing it,” the episode highlighted ongoing tensions over central bank independence and policy direction.

Fed Governor Chris Waller struck a notably dovish tone, backing rate cuts and citing weakening private-sector labor data. However, inflation data complicated the outlook. Headline CPI rose 0.3% monthly to 2.7% annually, while core CPI matched estimates at 2.9% yearly. Producer Price Index remained flat, creating mixed signals for policymakers weighing tariff-driven price pressures against broader disinflationary trends.

Strong Economic Data Reduces Rate Cut Urgency

Robust U.S. economic indicators undermined aggressive easing expectations throughout the week. June retail sales surprised to the upside while initial jobless claims declined to three-month lows, reinforcing economic resilience. The data prompted markets to pare back rate cut expectations from 50 basis points to 45 basis points by year-end.

Dollar strength from solid fundamentals pressured gold as an alternative store of value. The Dollar Index gained 0.61% for the week, making bullion more expensive for international buyers while reducing the urgency for monetary accommodation.

Gold Outlook: Policy Uncertainty Supports Defensive Positioning

Fundamental crosscurrents suggest continued volatility ahead. Trade tensions provide ongoing safe-haven support while strong economic data reduces Fed dovishness. UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted that policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue underpinning gold’s defensive appeal.

• Gold price struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s late rebound from a one-week trough.
• Reduced Fed rate cut bets underpin the USD and cap the commodity amid a positive risk tone.
• Persistent trade-related uncertainties might continue to offer support to the precious metal.

Gold price (XAU/USD) bounced off a one-week low, around the $3,309 region touched on Thursday, after Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller backed the case for a rate cut in July. In fact, Waller said that he continues to believe the US central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month amid mounting risks to the economy. Waller further emphasized that tariffs will not lead to a sustained increase in inflation and only cause a “temporary surge” in prices.

Traders, however, seem convinced that the Fed will wait at least until the September policy meeting before pulling the trigger and are pricing in the possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut by the end of this year. The expectations were further reaffirmed by Thursday’s upbeat US macro data and a slew of influential FOMC members. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) close to its highest level since June 23 and keeps the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive through the Asian session on Friday.

The US Commerce Department reported that Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, defying market expectations. This marks a significant improvement after a 0.9% fall in May, providing a glimmer of optimism for an economy that has been struggling. Moreover, US Initial Jobless Claims dropped for the fifth straight week, to 221K during the week ending July 12, or the lowest level in three months, suggesting a still resilient US labor market and validating reduced Fed rate cut bets.

Meanwhile, Fed governor Adriana Kugler said that the still-restrictive policy stance is important to keep longer-run inflation expectations anchored, and it will be appropriate to hold the policy rate at the current level for some time. Separately, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic noted that the economic outlook remains highly uncertain and rate cuts might be difficult in the short run. This, along with the upbeat market mood, continues to undermine demand for the safe-haven Gold price.

Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring housing market data, followed by the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations. The data might influence the USD, which, along with the risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains on track to register modest losses for the first time in three weeks, though the downside seems limited amid persistent trade uncertainties.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Outlook

From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much for the commodity, and the recent range-bound price action witnessed since the beginning of this month warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets. Hence, any further slide might continue to attract dip-buyers ahead of the $3,300 round figure. A convincing break below the said handle, however, could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 zone.

On the flip side, the $3,352 area could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,365-3,366 region, or the top boundary of the short-term trading range. A sustained strength beyond would be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders and trigger a short-covering rally. The subsequent move up should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark and extend the momentum towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area.