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Spot gold steadied after hitting its lowest level since April 10, supported by technical buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. The metal bounced near long-standing trendline support around $3,130, in place since the start of 2025. The dollar index (.DXY) slipped 0.3% to 100.81, making gold more attractive for holders of other currencies. However, despite Thursday’s dip, the index is on track for a modest weekly gain, though it remains down nearly 7% in 2025.
Markets are awaiting several key U.S. economic reports, including the producer price index, retail sales, and weekly jobless claims. These could influence rate expectations heading into the second half of 2025. Tuesday’s CPI data came in softer than expected, with core inflation rising only 0.2% in April. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak later Thursday, and traders will be parsing his comments for any hints on the Fed’s policy stance. Markets are still pricing in 50 basis points of cuts by year-end, likely starting in October.
Gold’s appeal as a safe haven has eased somewhat after the U.S. and China agreed to pause most tariffs for 90 days. While this de-escalated trade tensions, it also reduced immediate hedging demand for bullion. The drop in safe-haven flows, combined with higher Treasury yields earlier in the week, pressured gold lower before Thursday’s stabilization.
Silver price (XAG/USD) bounces back to near $32.00 during European trading hours on Thursday after sliding to near the monthly low around $31.65 earlier in the day. The outlook of the Silver price remains bearish as trade relations between the United States (US) and China have improved further.
During European trading hours, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled more talks with China to avoid trade tensions. “We are going into a series of negotiations with China to prevent escalation again,” Bessent said.
Meanwhile, Beijing also appears to be making efforts to improve relations with the US. On Wednesday, the Chinese Commerce Ministry suspended non-tariff measures taken against 45 US entities in the wake of an agreement between Washington and Beijing for a 90-day pause in the trade war in which they lowered tariffs by 115%.
Waning US-China trade tensions have forced investors to reassess the global economic outlook. Theoretically, an improvement in the global economy reduces demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, investors await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech, which is scheduled in the North American session. Investors would look cues for any change in the Fed’s stance towards the monetary policy outlook after the temporary US-China trade truce and soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April.
The Silver price could face more pressure if Fed Powell guides that interest rates should remain where they are in the face of economic uncertainty due to new economic policies by US President Donald Trump. Fed’s higher for longer interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver price trades in a Descending Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles around 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would trigger if the RSI falls below the 40.00 level.
Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EURJPY pair is affected by the negative pressures, due to its repeated stability below the resistance at 164.90, forming several bearish waves, approaching from the initial support at 163.35 level.
The suggested scenario depends on the stability of the current support, to expect activating the bullish track, which might target 164.20 and 164.90 level gradually, while breaking the support and holding below it will increase the chances for resuming the decline, and 162.40 level represents the next target of the bearish track.
The expected trading range for today is between 163.30 and 164.90
Trend forecast: Bullish
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Copper price confirmed the continuation of the bearish scenario by providing a new negative close yesterday below $4.6600, which represents an extra barrier to its stability near 50% Fibonacci correction level.
Note that gathering the negative momentum in the current period is important to ease the mission of pressing on the barrier at $4.5000 level, and breaking it will open the way towards targeting negative stations, which might extend to $4.4500 and $4.3100.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.4500 and $4.6600
Trend forecast: Bearish
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Gold price is looking to extend the previous day’s over 2% sell-off early Thursday. The yellow metal remains vulnerable near monthly lows, trading below $3,200, as it awaits the high-impact US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data ahead of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.
A negative shift in risk sentiment in Asian trades on Thursday seems to be exerting renewed downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD), helping Gold price pause its decline at the moment.
Traders are turning cautious and refraining from placing directional bets on the Greenback and Gold price before the release of the US PPI inflation and Retail Sales data, which could significantly impact the markets’ expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Retail volumes could see a big boost from frontloading to get ahead of US tariffs impact, while the US PPI inflation is set to decline to 2.5% over the year in April. Markets are pricing in about 53 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cut this year, with a probability of a 25 bps rate reduction in September standing at about 50%, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.
The increased odds of fewer Fed rate cuts continue to act as a headwind to the non-yielding Gold price, even though the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled slightly in April. Annually, US CPI rose 2.3% in the same period, compared to a forecast of 2.4%.
Gold price also bears the brunt of receding US recession fears, courtesy of the trade truce between the world’s two largest economies – the US and China. Furthermore, optimism over US-South Korea trade talks and expectations of a US-Iran nuclear deal keep the traditional safe-haven Gold price under pressure.
However, it remains to be seen if the Gold price continues its descent, as risk sentiment could deteriorate further if the upcoming Ukraine-Russia peace talks turn sour. Weaker-than-expected US PPI and Retail Sales data could rekindle dovish Fed expectations and provide the much-needed support to Gold price.
Additionally, Gold price could draw support from rising tensions over the US deficit after Treasury reported a $1.049 trillion budget deficit for the first seven months of fiscal 2025, which started October 1, up 23%, or $194 billion, from a year earlier.
Technically, Gold price remains exposed to further downside risks so long as the price stays below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,308.
Currently, the yellow metal is challenging the key 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,155.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently holding below the midline, near 44, indicating more downside potential.
However, if buyers manage to defend the 50-day SMA at $3,155, a rebound toward the 21-day SMA at $3,308 cannot be ruled out.
Further up, the falling trendline resistance at $3,419 will come into play.
A sustained break below the 50-day SMA support could trigger a fresh downtrend toward the 100-day SMA at $2,972
Ahead of that, the $3,100 round level and the April 10 low of $3,072 would be tested.
Jerome H. Powell took office as a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on May 25, 2012, to fill an unexpired term. On November 2, 2017, President Donald Trump nominated Powell to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Powell assumed office as Chair on February 5, 2018.
Next release:
Thu May 15, 2025 12:40
Frequency:
Irregular
Consensus:
–
Previous:
–
Source:
Federal Reserve
The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades with mild gains near $3,180 during the early Asian session on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the yellow metal might be capped in the near term due to better risk appetite and progress in trade talks.
The precious metal remains on the defensive as tension eases in the global trade war, pushing investors away from safe-haven demand. The US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%.
“Overall it’s an improved risk sentiment that for now has reduced gold’s appeal,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S.
A top adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Shamkhani, said late Wednesday that Iran is ready to sign a nuclear deal with certain conditions with US President Donald Trump in exchange for lifting economic sanctions. These positive developments contribute to the Gold’s downside.
However, trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks could help limit the Gold’s losses. Traders will keep an eye on the release of the US Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) for April later on Thursday. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price fell 2% on Wednesday amid elevated US Treasury bond yields as investors seemed confident that the US Federal Reserve would not reduce interest rates. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $32.20, unchanged as the Asian session begins.
Silver price is set to consolidate within the $32.00 – $33.00 range, capped on the upside by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.73 and on the downside by the 100-day SMA at $31.91.
From a momentum standpoint, sellers are in charge, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) portrays. However, price action dictates that bears must clear the $32.00 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA to aim for lower prices. In that outcome, XAG/USD’s next support would be the 200-day SMA at $31.30. A breach of the latter will expose the $31.00 figure, followed by the latest cycle low seen at $28.33, the April 7 low.
Conversely, if XAG/USD clears the 50-day SMA, the grey metal would be poised to test $33.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be the April 24 swing high at $33.68 ahead of the $34.00 figure.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices are down on Wednesday with the bright metal trading at its lowest since mid-April. The XAU/USD pair accelerated its slide during American trading hours, piercing the $3,200 mark, as investors keep moving away from safe-haven assets. Despite risk appetite receding on Wednesday, investors are less concerned about global growth and a potential United States (US) recession, given the de-escalation of trade tensions between the US and China.
Meanwhile, speculative interest kept digesting US inflation data. The slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April reminded investors of the “hawkish” Federal Reserve’s stance. As a result, Wall Street trades mixed, with the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 posting modest intraday advances and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) down for a second consecutive day.
Data-wise, the macroeconomic calendar remained scarce, but Thursday will bring Australian monthly employment figures, an update on the United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product, and the US April Producer Price Index (PPI).
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows it fell further below a now flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, in line with another leg lower. The 100 and 200 SMAS keep advancing, yet are too far below the current level to be relevant.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish. The pair trades below all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA about to cross below the 200 SMA. The latter stands at $3,232, providing relevant resistance in the case of a recovery. Finally, technical indicators lack directional strength but hold within negative levels, reflecting the absence of buying interest.
Support levels: 3,173.80 3,158.40 3,142.65
Resistance levels: 3,198.20 3,215.80 3,232.10
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down over 1% to near $32.15 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal faces a sharp selling pressure as demand for safe-haven assets has fizzled out, with the United States (US) and China aiming to avert a more than a month-long trade war.
On Monday, Washington and Beijing agreed to lower import duties by 115% for 90 days, which reduced tariffs on them to 10% and 30%, respectively, after a two-day meeting in Switzerland. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Tuesday that Washington doesn’t intend to decouple with China but wants to bring medicine, semiconductor, and other strategic industries home.
The white metal outperformed when the world’s two largest powerhouses entered a trade war after Beijing announced counter-tariffs against reciprocal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in April.
Additionally, easing inflationary pressures have also diminished the demand for Silver. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed on Tuesday that the headline inflation fell to 2.3%, the lowest level seen in over four years.
Going forward, the next trigger for the Silver price will be the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday. Investors would like to know whether Powell has turned dovish on the interest rate outlook after soft inflation data and a temporary US-China trade truce.
Silver price trades in a Symmetrical Triangle formation on a four-hour timeframe. The chart pattern reflects indecisiveness among market participants. The near-term trend of the white metal is bearish as it trades below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around $32.70.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sharp volatility contraction.
Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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Gold prices remain under pressure as investors reassess the interest rate outlook and digest mixed signals from recent US economic data. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is down 2.23% on the day, trading below $3,200, extending a week-to-date decline of 4.26%.
The pullback reflects uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy stance, as softer inflation data clash with firm labor market conditions. This macro backdrop has kept Gold range-bound just below its all-time high, with traders looking for fresh direction.
On the daily chart, Gold has formed a bullish pennant, a continuation pattern that typically signals a potential resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The April surge forms the flagpole, while current price action is consolidating within converging trendlines, indicating tightening market conditions and indecision among market participants.
However, the integrity of the pattern is now under pressure. Price has slipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,316.20, reflecting short-term weakness. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has declined to 47.13, pointing to neutral-to-bearish momentum. These developments suggest that the bullish setup may be faltering.
The immediate focus is on the horizontal support at $3,200, which marks the lower boundary of the pennant. With prices currently below this level, a confirmed break would invalidate the pattern and likely trigger a deeper correction. Conversely, a move above $3,300, particularly if it clears the descending trendline resistance, would reaffirm the bullish bias and potentially open the path to new highs.
Gold (XAU/USD) daily chart
From a broader perspective, the weekly chart shows that Gold remains in a consolidation phase following its ascent to a record high of $3,500 in April. This advance was underpinned by safe-haven demand and market expectations of future interest rate cuts. However, the rally was quickly met with profit-taking, evidenced by a long upper shadow on the weekly candle — a signal of rejection and growing resistance.
Since that peak, Gold has traded within a narrow horizontal band between $3,200 and $3,300, representing a pause in the uptrend rather than a full reversal. The long-term bullish structure remains intact, supported by an ascending trendline originating from the January low. Importantly, price is still holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3,291, drawn from the January low to the April high.
Gold (XAU/USD) weekly chart
While the broader trend favors the bulls, the near-term outlook hinges on how price behaves within the pivotal $3,200–$3,300 range.
A decisive breakout above $3,300, especially if accompanied by rising momentum and a break of descending trendline resistance, would confirm the continuation of the broader uptrend. In this scenario, Gold could retest the $3,450–$3,500 area.
A confirmed breakdown below $3,200 would invalidate the pennant structure and expose Gold to deeper retracements, with support levels at $3,161 (38.2% Fibonacci) and $3,057 (50.0%) offering potential downside targets.
Until a breakout occurs, Gold is likely to remain range-bound, with short-term direction dictated by incoming macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.