This shift has lowered demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which had surged amid global trade frictions earlier in 2025.

“The market is digesting a combination of dovish inflation data and geopolitical calm, which typically erodes the defensive premium embedded in gold,” said a commodities strategist at KCM Trade.

Fed Rate Outlook and Dollar Weakness Provide Support

Despite the downward drift, gold prices are finding some footing amid growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in April, slightly below forecasts, while core CPI ticked up 2.8%.

With inflation softening, traders are now pricing in two rate cuts by year-end, starting as early as September.

A weaker U.S. dollar, which generally supports dollar-denominated commodities, has helped cushion gold’s losses. The Dollar Index (DXY) slipped below 101.60 on Tuesday, reflecting reduced expectations of aggressive tightening by the Fed.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver remain range-bound short term, with key breakouts hinging on Fed signals and technical pivots.

Natural gas prices need positive momentum, which forces them to form weak trading by its continuous fluctuation near the initial support at $3.600, to face the moving average 55 as appears in the above image.

Gathering the positive momentum is important to decrease the chances for activating the bearish correctional track, depending on forming extra support at $3.440 level, to begin forming bullish waves, to press on the barrier at $3.780 level to find an exit for recording new gains in the upcoming period.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.550 and $3.780

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, to keep its fluctuation near the $991.00 level, while the continuation of forming sold barrier at $1005.00 level will increase the chances for activating the negative track, to attack the moving average 55 at $965.00, then press on the support at $950.00.

While regaining the bullish bias requires forming a strong bullish rally, to surpass 61.8% Fibonacci correction level at to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $1027.00, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that begin at $ 1027.00 and $1040.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $965.00 and $ 1000.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price edges lower to $3,245 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Improved risk appetite after the US and China slash tariff rates weighs on the Gold price. 
• Escalating tensions and uncertainty might help limit the Gold’s losses. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) trades in negative territory around $3,245 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Improved risk appetite in the financial markets due to a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China weighs on the yellow metal, a safe-haven asset. Traders will focus on the Fedspeak later on Wednesday. 

The US and China, the world’s two largest economies, agreed to reduce tariffs on each other after two days of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland. The US lowered tariffs on Chinese imports to 30% from 145%, while China cut tariffs on US imports to 10% from 125%. These positive developments boost market sentiment and undermine the precious metal. 

Additionally, easing tensions between India and Pakistan also weighed on the Gold price. The ceasefire remained intact in Jammu and Kashmir and across border towns overnight, following India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stern message to terrorists and Pakistan. Modi said on Monday that India will not tolerate any “nuclear blackmail.” He added that operations against Pakistan have only been paused, and the future will depend on their behavior.

“Gold and silver showed a heavy selloff at the start of the new week amid a trade deal between the US and China in Switzerland. The dollar index and the US bond yields jumped after the announcement of trade deals. The Indo-Pak ceasefire over the weekend also eases safe-haven buying for precious metals,” Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research observed.

Nonetheless, any signs of escalation between India and Pakistan, along with the economic uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the Gold price.

• Silver holds near $33.00, supported by soft Dollar and improved risk appetite.
• RSI flattens despite bullish tone, suggesting near-term indecision and possible consolidation.
• Break above $33.25 targets $33.68 and $34.00; drop below $32.75 may expose $31.89 and $31.28.

Silver price edged up 0.95% on Tuesday as the Greenback finished the session below the 101.00 figure, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies. At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, XAG/USD trades at $32.92, registering modest gains near the $33.00 figure.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The Silver technical outlook suggests that further consolidation lies ahead, with stir resistance found at the psychological $33.00 figure. However, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), despite remaining bullish, turned flattish as indecision sinks on traders.

For a bullish resumption, buyers need to reclaim $33.00 and clear the latest swing high reached on May 7 at $33.25. Once surpassed, $33.50 emerges as next resistance, followed by the April 28 high of $33.68. A breach of the latter will expose $34.00.

Conversely, if XAG/USD drifts below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $32.75, a move towards the 100-day SMA at $31.89 is likely. On further weakness, the bulls’ following line of defense would be the 200-day SMA at $31.28.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Resistance Zone Includes HS Neckline

Resistance was seen near recent highs that are marked by several indicators that converged around a price zone. If the price of natural gas was going to pullback further from recent highs, now would be the time to do it. It is important to recognize that since the April 24 swing low of $2.86, there have been only two previous pullbacks of one day each. Anything more than one day pullback would be a change in that pattern and possibly an indication of a slowdown in bullish momentum.

Sharp Rally Hits Turbulence?

As of yesterday’s high, of $3.84, the price of natural gas had risen by $0.98 or 34.4% in only 12 days. Since a significant potential resistance zone has been reached a deeper bearish pullback would not be a surprise. If an advance above this week’s high is to be sustained, a period of consolidation or larger pullback could provide preparation time for demand to build.

Initial Downside $3.47

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $3.47 and provides an initial downside target. And it can be considered along with a prior pullback low of $3.42. That low is part of the price structure of the near-term uptrend. Therefore, it has some significance, particularly if it fails to hold as support. The potentially significant support area around the 20-Day MA is now at $3.37 and is the next lower target if $3.42 fails to hold.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,252.75

• An upbeat market mood weighs on the US Dollar, providing near-term support to XAU/USD.
• The United States Consumer Price Index rose by less than anticipated in April.
• XAU/USD shows a limited bullish potential in the near term, support at $3,225.

Spot Gold consolidates losses on Tuesday, holding above the $3,200 mark yet unable to recover the ground lost on Monday. Financial markets retain the positive mood triggered by news of de-escalating trade tensions between the United States (US) and China, as both countries agreed to reduced tariffs on each other for 90 days.

Other than that, the US released the April Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose by 2.3% compared to a year earlier, easing from the previous 2.4%. The core annual reading, in the meantime, remained unchanged at 2.8%. Finally, the monthly CPI was up 0.2%, above the previous -0.1% but below the 0.3% anticipated by market players.

The upbeat mood weighed on the Greenback, leading to a modest XAU/USD advance. Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down roughly 0.40%, still positive for the week after adding over 1,000 points on Monday. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 post intraday gains, with the latter turning positive for the year.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

XAU/USD hovers around $3,250, and the daily chart shows a limited upward potential. The pair keeps developing below a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), providing dynamic resistance at around $3,316.70. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, suggesting bulls have not yet given up. Finally, technical indicators stand in neutral territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating at around 50, failing to provide clear directional clues.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, a mildly bullish 200 SMA at around $3.225.40 provides support for a second consecutive day, yet at the same time, the 20 SMA accelerated south above the current level and after crossing below a flat 100 SMA, in line with increased selling interest. Technical indicators, in the meantime, consolidate within negative levels, also supporting a bearish extension, particularly if the pair finally breaks below the mentioned 200 SMA.

Support levels: 3,241.90 3,225.40 3,212.85

Resistance levels: 3,265.40 3,281.60 3,305.65