December natural gas futures are selling off hard for the sixth session in a row. The intense selling pressure started with a closing price reversal top at $3.652 on October 14. It accelerated to the downside after the market crossed to the bearish side of the 50-day moving average at $3.474 last Friday.

The main trend is also down according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the swing bottom at $3.234. The nearest swing tops are $3.652 and $3.709. The nearest downside target is $2.896.

What to Watch

For November natural gas futures, my bias remains to the downside. It’s being supported by the breakdown under the 50-day moving average and the downtrend on the main swing chart. Counting the October 14 main top at $3.334, the market has been down six-out-of-seven sessions. This means that on Thursday, it will be in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This formation and a subsequent confirmation could soften my bearish outlook.

For December natural gas futures, the breakdown under the 50-day moving average and the breakdown under the swing bottom at $3.234 are providing the best support for my downside bias. Due to the current prolonged break in terms of price and time, on Thursday we will enter the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. If formed and confirmed, we could see a strong counter-trend rally. This would weaken my outlook slightly.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The EURUSD pair continues to fluctuate in its latest intraday trading, as it attempts to gain positive momentum that could help it recover and resume its short-term corrective uptrend. This outlook is supported by the pair’s continued trading above EMA50, as well as the earlier breakout above a major bearish trend line. However, the emergence of a bearish crossover in the relative strength indicators suggests that the pair’s recovery attempts may face temporary obstacles.

Silver is currently trading at $57.37. What is particularly interesting to me on the 1-hour chart is a triangle pattern. This occurs when price is gradually squeezed into a smaller and smaller range, with a falling trendline above and a rising trendline below that gradually converge. Yesterday’s price action toward $58.65 was pushed away from the upper falling trendline.

The first support area grabbing my attention is at $57.39. The next area is at $56.92, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with the lower rising trendline just below near $56.72. A break below the trendline would break the pattern and open up $56.34. The resistance area I’m watching is $57.86, followed by the upper falling trendline near $58.37 and then $58.70.

The EURUSD pair declined in its latest intraday trading, continuing its attempts to gain the positive momentum needed to resume its recovery and rise again. This comes amid a short-term bullish corrective wave, with ongoing positive support from trading above EMA50, which strengthens the chances of further gains in the near term, especially as the relative strength indicators have entered deeply oversold territory compared to the pair’s price action.

Platinum maintained its bearish positioning so far, remaining below the resistance barrier at $1740.00, confirming its readiness to resume its downward attempts as it currently edges toward $1635.00.

The formation of an additional resistance barrier at $1670.00 could increase the chances of the price gathering the negative momentum needed to reach the next bearish targets, currently located at $1555.00 and $1505.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1550.00 and $1670.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Wedge Breakout Faces Its First Pullback

In addition to the rising channel that suggests a potential target near the upper boundary of that pattern, crude oil broke out of a falling bullish wedge continuation pattern two weeks ago. That breakout preceded the rally to $97.17 but there has not yet been a notable pullback since the breakout. Tuesday’s price action suggests that the first pullback may have just begun. If support holds above $88.66 and is followed by renewed strength, a higher swing low would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of another advance as the wedge breakout continues to unfold.

Upside Targets Reach Toward $120

An initial upside target zone extends from $106.89 to $109.74, where several technical indicators converge. This zone remains valid unless weakness breaks support at the 50-day moving average, now near $92.89 and rising. Beyond that zone, a rising ABCD pattern projects a potential target at $120.90, close to the March spike high of $119.54, where resistance could emerge.

FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 82.8% probability that Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the next meeting. It looks that gold traders are focused on longer-term outlook for Fed policy. The market expects that Fed will raise the federal funds rate in December and will proceed with another rate hike in January.

Oil prices moved away from session highs amid reports indicating that U.S. and Iran were trying to reach a deal. Earlier, some reports showed that a peace deal was close, but these reports have been refuted. Lower oil prices failed to provide support to gold prices today.

Gold declines below the $4150 level and is trying to settle below $4100. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. A move below the $4000 level will push gold towards the $3950 level.

On the upside, gold needs to settle above the resistance at $4160 – $4180 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, gold will head towards the resistance level at $4300 – $4320.

Power-sector consumption may complicate the weather relationship. Warmer conditions may reduce heating requirements while supporting cooling load in some areas, especially the Deep South. LNG exports and production can also change the amount available for storage. However, the official daily feed gas, terminal operation, or production flow series do not suggest this is going on quite yet.

Storage Report

The next EIA storage release is scheduled for Thursday and is still pending. A smaller injection, or perhaps an unexpected withdrawal, especially alongside a colder forecast revision, could strengthen the tighter-balance interpretation. But as things stand right now, continued builds and persistent warmth are weakening it.

The present evidence supports a cautious reading: a modest national buffer, an uneven regional cushion, and forecasts that restrain the case for immediate heating pressure.

Despite forming some bullish corrective wave by platinum price recently and its stability near $1650.00, it will not affect the main bearish trend, which depends on the stability of the resistance at $1825.00 besides forming a key obstacle at $1740.00 against the current trading.

All that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to renew the pressure on $1595.00 barrier, where breaking it will make the price resume the bearish trend to target $1555.00 and $1510.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $1600.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish trend

In technical market analysis, tracking Elliott Wave structures step-by-step allows traders to stay aligned with the primary trend direction while managing risk effectively. Today, we review a recent forecast for Silver ($XAGUSD), comparing our 4-hour forecast from late September 2026 against the price action through mid-October 2026.

The Forecast: 09.24.2026

In our 09.24.2026 4-hour update, Silver was trading near 63.73 after completing a peak at the major wave (X). At the time, the Elliott Wave structure favored a bearish outlook while remaining below the key invalidation level at 71.122. The forecast called for the completion of the remaining sub-waves (iii), (iv), and (v) of ((c)), which were expected to drive price lower into the 60.414 – 58.538 target zone and complete the larger wave W. From there, a corrective wave X bounce was anticipated before Silver resumed the broader bearish sequence and continued lower. See chart below.

The Outcome: 10.14.2026

As anticipated in our October 14, 2026 4-hour update, $XAGUSD respected the invalidation level and followed the projected bearish path. Silver accelerated sharply to the downside, breaking well below the initial 60.41 – 58.53 target zone and invalidating nearby support levels along the way. The decline continued to unfold through the lower-degree waves, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Price has since extended toward the 55.56 area, confirming the strength of the downtrend while remaining firmly below the updated invalidation level at 71.141, keeping the broader bearish outlook intact. See chart below

Note: Certain labels have been intentionally concealed to protect the exclusivity of our members.

Key Takeaways for Traders

One of the key lessons from this analysis was the importance of staying aligned with the prevailing trend. By maintaining a bearish outlook while price remained below the 71.122 – 71.141 invalidation zone, traders were able to stay on the right side of the market throughout the sharp decline. Equally important was the disciplined focus on Elliott Wave structure rather than attempting to predict every short-term fluctuation. Despite several intermediate consolidations, the wave count continued to provide clear downside objectives, well-defined risk parameters, and a reliable roadmap for navigating the bearish sequence.

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