XAU/USD Current price: $4,013

• The US Dollar surged to its highest level in over a year amid rate-hike expectations.
• The United States will publish the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge on Thursday.
• XAU/USD battles to retain the $4,000 mark after falling to fresh 2026 lows

Spot Gold traded as low as $3,964 on Wednesday, its lowest since November 2025. The bright metal bounced and regained the $4,000 mark during American trading hours, but undeniable US Dollar (USD) strength persists across the FX board.

The Greenback rallied ever since the United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a hawkish hold following the June monetary policy meeting, erasing speculation of potential interest rate cuts ahead. The rally reached a peak during the European session, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) surpassing the 101 mark and hitting its highest since May 2025.

The USD also recovered on relief, as tensions in the Middle East eased further: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz seems pretty steady, regardless of persistent discussions on whether Iran could or could not control the critical passage. The intraday retracement seems a mere correction within a bullish trend.

The focus now shifts to US data: the country will publish the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday. Annual inflation as measured by the PCE is seen up 4.1% on a yearly basis, up from the 3.8% posted in April. A higher-than-anticipated reading is likely to boost the odds for interest rate hikes in the US, providing additional support to the USD.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The near-term picture for XAU/USD is bearish. In the four-hour chart, the metal remains decisively below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,124.98, the 100-period SMA at $4,268.32 and the 200-period SMA at $4,413.03, which collectively frame a heavy topside cap. Momentum conditions reinforce this negative bias, as the 14-period Momentum indicator sits deeply in negative territory and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators hovers near the 30 line, without signaling yet downward exhaustion.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD also extends its slide beneath all major moving averages and preserves a bearish nbias. The metal remains well below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,296 and the 200-day SMA at $4,473, while the longer-term 100-day SMA at $4,700 also stays overhead, collectively suggesting persistent downside pressure rather than a completed bottom. Momentum readings are firmly negative, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 31, allowing further weakness before a more meaningful rebound attempt.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-period SMA near $4,124.98, where any corrective bounce is likely to face early supply. A sustained break above that barrier would expose the next resistance at the 100-period SMA around $4,268.32, reinforced by the 20-day SMA standing nearby. The mentioned low provides immediate support ahead of the $3,900 mark.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver (XAG/USD) nurses marginal losses, trading a few cents above the $61.00 level on Wednesday’s European trading session. The pair remains on the defensive following a 5.3% sell-off on Tuesday, as investors brace for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and reports from the Middle East conflict cloud hopes of a durable peace deal.

Precious metals continue bleeding as traders position for higher interest rates in the US. Recent US data has shown a resilient economy with inflation steady well above the Fed’s target, and the central bank’s rhetoric pivoting towards the hawkish side. The CME’s Fed Watch Tool shows a 36% chance of a rate hike in July and 68% in September, up from 28% and 50%, respectively, last week, before the latest monetary policy meeting.

Apart from that, the US Dollar is drawing additional support from investors’ scepticism about the outcome of the US trade deal and a sell-off in stock markets. Investors are taking profits amid growing concerns about the massive spending in the sector.

Technical Analysis: Below $60.00, the next target is the $58.00 area

XAG/USD hit fresh 2026 lows at $60.74 earlier on the day, but so far it is failing to find acceptance below the $61.00 level. Momentum indicators are approaching oversold levels in most timeframes, which should act as a warning for sellers.

The Relative Strength Index (14) in 4-hour charts is hovering around 30, flirting with oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, hinting that selling pressure still dominates despite the stretched conditions.

Below session lows at the mentioned $60.74 and the psychological level at $60.00, bears might be attracted by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of last week’s decline, at $58.25, before the December 4 low, at $56.47. Upside attempts remain shallow so far, with previous support at $63.31 and Monday’s highs at the $67.00 area likely to pose a significant challenge for bulls.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Silver trades around $62 per ounce on Tuesday, not far from the 2026 low of $61.01 posted in March. King Dollar regained its crown after the Federal Reserve shifted to a hawkish stance at its June meeting, with easing tensions in the Middle East also helping.

As the XAG/USD pair approaches the critical threshold, sellers gain confidence and look for potential targets should a bearish breakout occur. In the meantime, it’s worth remembering the precious metal flirted with such a bottom earlier in June and attracted modest buying interest, which, anyway, met sellers ahead of the $ 70 mark, now a technical roof.

Federal Reserve aftermath

The Federal Reserve (Fed) held its first monetary policy meeting, chaired by Kevin Warsh, and as widely anticipated, officials kept the Fed’s Fund Rate unchanged, floating between 3.5% and 3.75%. But surprises were not missing. Policymakers now lean towards a rate hike before year’s end, a 180-degree change from the previous meeting in which a rate cut was still on the table.

Chair Warsh made it pretty clear that he does not believe in forward guidance and that decisions will depend on data. He also announced changes to most of what the Fed does to set monetary policy, and to the approach used to get there.

Still, rate-hike bets are actually taking their toll on Silver.

Middle East negotiations continue

The United States (US) and Iran signed an agreement last week, which brought major relief to financial markets. Oil prices plunged, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $73, not far above pre-war levels. However, the deal is far from a complete roll-back of what happened in the last few months. Negotiations continue, with tensions revolving around Tehran’s willingness to accept nuclear inspections and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels are indeed moving through, but Iran keeps demanding control of the critical passage. Also, tensions between Israel and Lebanon remain a sticky point to be solved.

Relief – and lower Oil Prices – are another factor playing in the USD’s favor.

XAG/USD Technical Outlook

The technical setup for XAG/USD hints at lower lows ahead. In the daily chart, the pair extends its slide below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), with the shorter one about to cross below the longer one, both converging near the $70 level and reinforcing the strength of the resistance area. The same chart shows the Momentum indicator heads nowhere below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims firmly lower near 33, suggesting sellers remain in control despite the risk of a corrective bounce.

On the topside, initial resistance is clustered around the longer-term averages, with the 200-day SMA at $69.33 closely followed by the 20-day SMA at $69.38, forming the first significant cap for any recovery attempts. A sustained break above that zone would open the way toward the 100-day SMA at $76.71, where the broader bearish structure would likely be challenged. Once the year low gives up, investors will be looking for XAG/USD behavior around the $60 psychological threshold. Failure to bounce sustainably from the latter will open the door for a test of the $54.60 price zone, where the pair bottomed last December. Additional declines expose the $50 mark, where selling interest is likely to recede.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)