CHFJPY failed to resume its bullish attack, pressured by the stability of the resistance barrier near 192.30. The pair has remained below this level as the main technical indicators recently signaled negative momentum, leading to another decline toward 190.45.

The Stochastic indicator’s exit from overbought territory is expected to add further negative pressure to current trading, supporting our outlook for additional bearish attempts targeting 190.10, followed by a test of support near 189.20. This support level represents a key threshold for confirming the overall direction of upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 189.20 and 191.40.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Silver is also being impacted by the sharp sell-off in the global equity markets. Weakness in leveraged positions in volatile technology stocks is leading to margin calls, which is forcing some hedge funds to sell silver to meet the margin call.

Switching back to the rate hike concerns, the market now largely expects the Federal Reserve to leave policy unchanged at next week’s meeting, but December is still a major worry. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 92% chance of the Fed leaving rates where they currently are and a 78% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.

Looking ahead, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is due to be released on October 29. It could offer further insight as to the state of inflation. It will be released shortly before the Fed concludes its policy meeting so it may have an impact on its decision. Earlier in the month, stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer and producer inflation numbers supported the case for tighter monetary policy later this year.

2026.10.23 2026.10.23
XAUUSD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 23.10.26–30.10.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 4,692.78 with a target of 3,593.00–3,127.70. A sell signal: the price holds below 4,692.78. Stop Loss: above 4,760.00, Take Profit: 3,593.00–3,127.70.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 4,692.78 will allow the asset to continue rising to the levels of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the level of 4,692.78 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 4,625.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 4,692.78 with a target of 3,593.00–3,127.70.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 4,692.78 will allow the asset to continue rising to the levels of 4,900.00–5,610.00.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (3) has presumably formed, and a downward correction (4) is developing. On the daily time frame, wave A of (4) has apparently formed, and correction B of (4) has been completed. On the H4 time frame, wave C of (4) is developing, with the first wave of smaller degree i of C forming as its part. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to decline to 3,593.00–3,127.70. The level of 4,692.78 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the asset to continue rising to the levels of 4,900.00–5,610.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

UAE was forced to close some beaches after the country detected an oil spill from a tanker which was attacked in the Persian Gulf. Iran has increased attacks on tankers in recent weeks. In this light, the U.S. may choose to restart the military operation against Iran to protect vessels going through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has previously warned that the country’s response to a potential attack would not be limited to defense. Iranian officials have speculated that the country could initate a land operation against any country helping the U.S. I’d note that the U.S. has already ordered some diplomats and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, a sign of escalating tensions in the region.

WTI oil climbed above the resistance at $100.50 – $101.00 and is trying to settle above the $103.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, WTI oil will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $106.00 – $106.50 range. A move above the $106.50 level will push WTI oil towards the $110.00 level.

Platinum price launched a strong bearish attack in yesterday’s trading, pressured by its fluctuations below the additional resistance extending toward $1650.00. As a result, the price has reached its initial main target at $1555.00.

The price may be forced to move sideways for some time. However, the main technical indicators are converging to signal negative momentum, increasing the likelihood of a renewed bearish attack. We expect the price to move toward $1510.00 and $1480.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1510.00 and $1600.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price intensified its bearish attack in yesterday’s trading, driven by recurring negative pressure, breaking below our previously suggested first target at $6.3000. This has kept the price trading below the 55-period moving average.

We note that continued stability below the resistance level at $6.6100, alongside the negative momentum signals from the main technical indicators, could strengthen the bearish pressure. We therefore expect the price to attempt a move toward support near $6.2400. A break below this level would pave the way for further declines toward additional targets, potentially starting at $6.1100.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.2400 and $6.4300

Trend forecast: Bearish

Silver is trading near $54.05 on the 4-hour chart, inside the falling channel that has guided prices lower since September. The latest rejection came near $58.09 at the top of the channel, and the drop that followed took silver to a fresh low near $53.43, just under the $53.46 support, before a small bounce.

If $53.46 gives way on a closing basis, $52.41 and then $51.39 come into play. On the upside, silver needs to clear $54.53 first, then $55.77.

Moving Average Crossover Reinforces Bearish Pressure

Signs of resistance are anticipated near that average given its accelerating downward slope, reflecting increasing seller momentum. The average has also declined below the recent minor lower swing high of $62.09 and is approaching a cross below the falling channel’s midline. Those signs support the bearish implications of the recent moving average crossover, in which the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. Together, these factors suggest that any recovery may encounter selling pressure before reaching the upper channel boundary.

Breakdown Risks Extend Toward $48.29

Finally, a further support reference lies near $54.49, defined by the high of a resistance shelf that began forming in October 2025. Given this nearby support, a break to new lows should be treated cautiously until additional technical evidence confirms the breakdown. However, if price continues to fall and these support levels fail to hold, silver could eventually test support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $48.29. For now, the $55.40 low remains the immediate decision point, with a breakdown favoring trend continuation and a sustained recovery potentially establishing a higher swing low.

Natural gas price remains under negative pressure, having recently recorded a sharp decline and settling near $2.730, breaking below the additional support level at $2.820.

Continued trading below the broken support will force the price to maintain its bearish attempts, renewing pressure on the support level at $2.620, which serves as the key level for confirming the overall direction of upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $2.620 and $2.900

Trend forecast: Fluctuating 

GBPJPY surged to 211.98, approaching the main resistance barrier at 212.10, before quickly reversing toward 211.20, confirming its continued commitment to the main bearish trend.

The main indicators are aligned in supporting the bearish outlook, as the 55-period moving average remains near the main resistance barrier. This favors further downside attempts, potentially targeting 210.40 and 209.60. However, a successful breakout above the main resistance could trigger a strong bullish rally toward several positive targets, starting at 212.65 and extending to 213.25.

The expected trading range for today is between 210.40 and 212.00

Trend forecast: Bearish