Lumen Technologies’ stock price (LUMN) returned lower in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the downward correctional trend in the short term, with negative pressure due to trading below the 50-day SMA, coupled with negative signals from the RSI after reaching overbought levels compared to the stock’s movements, hinting at negative divergence.
Therefore we expect more losses for the stock, provided it settles firmly below the resistance of $5.90, and targeting the support of $4.52.
Subsequently, a bearish weekly reversal triggered today, Tuesday, as crude fell below last week’s low of 77.30. This was the first time in seven weeks that a prior weekly low was broken to the downside and reflects the possibility that crude may have topped for now and heading into a correction. Nonetheless, support for the day was seen at 76.15 and it was followed by an intraday bounce. Interesting to see support was seen at the intersection of two trendlines.
Both the longer-term rising line across the bottom of the symmetrical triangle pattern and the more recent rising trendline for the near-term uptrend. Further, the 50-Week MA (not shown) is at 76.37, also in today’s support zone. Crude oil closed above the 50-Week line for the first time since July 2024 two weeks ago. This is the first pullback to test the 50-Week line as support.
Reaches Key Initial Support
It is possible that today’s low completes a pullback before crude is ready to proceed higher. If that is the case, then a decisive breakout above today’s high of 78.32 would provide a daily bullish reversal signal. The first barrier then confronted would be last week’s high of 80.76. If that high can be exceeded and crude stays above it, a breakout above the trendline and triangle formation will be confirmed.
Drop Below 76.15, Short-term Bearish
Otherwise, the expectation is for a deeper pullback first. A decline below today’s low of 76.15 would trigger a bearish continuation of the retracement. Price areas to watch for support on the way down include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 200-Day MA at 75.54 and 75.42, respectively. A little lower is the 20-Day MA at 74.75 and the 50% retracement at 73.93.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold price sits at two-month highs at $2,750, eyes more upside.
Trump’s tariff threats on China revive haven demand for the US Dollar and Gold price.
Technically, Gold price aims for the symmetrical triangle target at $2,785 or record highs.
Gold price extends its three-day bullish momentum into Wednesday, hitting the highest level in two months at $2,750. A renewed risk-aversion wave appears to put a fresh bid under the Gold price as markets digest US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats.
Gold price benefits from trade war fears
Citing President Trump, Reuters reported earlier in the Asian session, “we are talking about a 10% tariff on China because they sell fentanyl.” Trump said the tariffs will be effective from February 1. He added that the “European Union will be in for tariffs.”
Risk sentiment turned soured as trade war fears intensified on these threats, with Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang warning that there are “no winners” in a trade war, speaking at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos on Tuesday. The sell-off in Chinese stocks on looming US tariffs revived the flight to safety theme, lifting the safe havens – the US Dollar and the Gold price.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold price sustains the three-day winning streak as risk flows could return as most of these tariffs announced by Trump were priced in, while traders could cheer the US President’s announcement of artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure investment. Late Tuesday, Trump announced that OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle will form a joint venture called Stargate and invest up to $500 billion in AI infrastructure.
Meanwhile, “streaming giant Netflix on January 21 released its October-December quarter results, reporting that it added close to 19 million subscribers during the holiday period to surpass 300 million subs in total,” AFP reported. This news could also comfort investors amid mounting trade war fears.
Furthermore, the tepid recovery in the US Treasury bond yields could outweigh the dovish US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations, capping the upside in the non-yielding Gold price. Markets are pricing in a total easing of 37 basis points (bps) from the Fed this year, with the first-rate cut not fully priced until July, per Refinitive.
That said, fresh tariffs talks and policies from Trump will likely play a pivotal role in impacting the broad market sentiment, eventually influencing the USD and the Gold price.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price remains on track to test the record high of $2,790 or the symmetrical triangle target, measured at $2,785.
Gold price charted a symmetrical triangle breakout earlier this month while it holds comfortably above all the major daily simple moving averages (SMA), supporting the bullish case.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to grind higher above the midline, currently near 67, keeping buyers hopeful.
Gold price must scale the $2,750 psychological barrier on a daily closing basis to challenge the November 2024 high of $2,762.
The next target is aligned near the aforementioned resistance near $2,790.
On the flip side, Gold price could test the $2,700 round level, below which the 21-day SMA at $2,666 will be threatened.
The 50-day SMA and the 100-day SMA converge at $2,650 seems to be the last line of defense for Gold buyers.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBPJPY pair confirmed getting rid of the negative pressures after touching 190.50 level yesterday, to notice reacting to stochastic positivity by surpassing 191.80 barrier and attempt to cover more previously suffered losses by settling near 192.30.
Note that forming continuous support at 189.30 will confirm the price surrender to the bullish track on the near-term and medium-term basis, to expect rallying towards 192.90 soon followed by attempting to press on the additional resistance at 194.10.
The expected trading range for today is between 191.45 and 192.90
Silver price could test its initial resistance at the ascending channel’s upper boundary at $31.80.
The short-term momentum is robust, as the XAG/USD pair is trading above both the nine- and 14-day EMAs.
The immediate support seems to be around the nine-day EMA at $30.47 and the 14-day EMA at $30.32.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around $30.80 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Wednesday. A daily chart analysis indicates a prevailing bullish bias for the precious metal, as its price continues to rise within an ascending channel pattern.
Short-term momentum is strong, with the XAG/USD pair trading above both the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 level, reinforcing the active bullish sentiment.
On the upside, the Silver price could find its initial resistance around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at $31.80. A breakout above this level could boost market sentiment and drive the XAG/USD pair toward its two-month high of $32.28, last achieved on December 9.
Immediate support is located at a nine-day EMA of $30.47, followed closely by a 14-day EMA of $30.32. Further support appears around the ascending channel’s lower boundary at $30.00. A break below this channel would cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put pressure on the XAG/USD pair to navigate the region around its four-month low of $28.74, recorded on December 19.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Qualcomm Incorporated’s stock price (QCOM) rose in the intraday levels, confirming that it shook off the negative pressure due to piercing the downward correctional trend line in the short term, while trespassing the resistance of the 50-day SMA, coupled with positive signals from the RSI despite reaching overbought levels.
Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, provided it settles firmly above the support of $156.34, targeting the resistance of $177.6.
On the upside, a bullish reversal would be indicated on a rally above today’s high of 3.91. Natural gas would then be heading up into a potential resistance zone defined by the prior six days of price history. The bull trend does not continue until there is a rally above the recent trend high of 4.37. In the meantime, natural gas needs to contend with a possible deeper pullback as trend support is being threatened.
Bullish Medium-Term
The medium-term outlook for natural gas remains bullish given the breakout of a large symmetrical pattern in the second half of November. That breakout was accompanied by a bullish trend continuation signal and followed by a trend reversal signal on the advance above the lower swing high of 3.64 on December 20. These are all bullish signals for the medium-term.
In the short term, natural gas could still correct further as a normal component of a bullish trend continuation pattern of an advance followed by profit taking and a pullback. However, until the lower end of the support zone noted above at 3.64 is broken to the downside, the possibility of a continuation higher remains.
Deeper Correction Remains Possible
A continuation of the bearish correction on a decisive drop below 3.64 will put natural gas in a position to test support around a price zone from 3.52 to 3.51. That zone consists of the 127.2% extended target for a small falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, respectively. Moreover, last week’s high of 4.33 generated a lower swing low and possible second top of a double top pattern.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
Gold prices added to Monday’s uptick and surpassed $2,740.
The US Dollar could not sustain the initial bid bias on another tariff story.
President Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward momentum unchanged on Tuesday, entering their four consecutive week with gains.
This time, the precious metal advanced north of the $2,740 mark per ounce troy backed by fresh threats by President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, starting as soon as February 1.
That said, the yellow metal extened its auspicious start to the week as US investors returned to their desks following the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday and Inauguration Day on Monday.
Contributing to the second consecutive daily advance, the US Dollar (USD) could not sustain the earlier bid bias, losing momentum afterwards and triggering the second consecutive daily pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY), all after the initial impact of potential tariffs on Canada and Mexico in February ran out of steam.
Looking ahead, the spotlight is likely to stay on developments from the White House in a week with relatively few major economic data releases. Meanwhile, traders are also gearing up for the Federal Reserve’s January 28–29 meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.
Gold remains firmly in focus as political events and central bank decisions loom, setting the stage for potential volatility in the days ahead.
Gold’s short-term technical outlook
Gold’s next big target on the upside is $2,745, its 2025 high reached on January 21. Beyond that, traders will be eyeing the all-time high of $2,790, recorded on October 31. Should these levels be breached, Fibonacci projections point to potential milestones at $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288.
On the downside, the first line of defense lies at December’s low of $2,582, followed by November’s low of $2,536. Further support sits at the 200-day moving average of $2,513, with deeper corrections potentially targeting $2,471 (the September low) and $2,353 (the weekly low from July).
If the selloff intensifies, the next significant levels to watch are $2,286, the June low, and $2,277, the May low. The ultimate downside marker for now is $1,984, the 2024 low from February 14, which would represent a significant retracement from current levels.
Futures have breached two pivotal 50% support levels at $3.850 and $4.043, positioning the market for further declines. A potential test of the January 3 low at $3.330 looms as the next downside target. A recovery above $3.850 would signal the first signs of strength, with a move through $4.053 reinforcing a bullish shift. However, a break below $3.736 would further confirm downside momentum. These technical markers are essential for traders looking to time entry and exit points effectively.
Weather Impact Already Priced In
Although an Arctic blast has gripped the central and eastern U.S., driving temperatures as low as northern Florida, traders have largely dismissed the event’s immediate impact. Unlike other markets, natural gas professionals often sell rallies, guided by short-term forecasts. The futures market’s two-week window has rendered the current cold snap irrelevant, as milder weather predictions for late January have already been factored into pricing. Last week’s rally to $4.369 was met with selling pressure, reflecting this forward-looking strategy.
Storage and LNG Factors Add to Bearish Sentiment
Recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) underscores robust heating demand, with a storage withdrawal of 258 Bcf, nearly double the five-year average. While this signals short-term strength in demand, domestic storage levels remain 77 Bcf above the seasonal average, mitigating supply concerns. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports continue to provide a bullish backdrop, supported by European demand amid depleted inventories. However, signs of softening LNG flow and declining power generation demand temper the market’s upside potential.
What Does the Weekly Reversal Signal?
Last week’s close at $3.948, following a high of $4.369, marked a bearish reversal pattern, often preceding extended declines. Traders should heed this signal, as it indicates waning buying interest and reinforces the bearish impact of technical and fundamental factors aligning. Profit-taking and milder weather forecasts have compounded the market’s retreat, underlining its sensitivity to rapid sentiment shifts.
Market Forecast: Bearish with Risks of Volatility
Natural gas futures are likely to face additional downward pressure, with support at $3.330 as the next critical level. However, volatility remains a risk, as unexpected weather developments or surging LNG demand could reignite buying interest. For now, the market leans bearish, emphasizing the importance of close monitoring of weather updates and storage data to navigate the near term effectively.
Silver price ticks lower as the US Dollar recovers sharply, with Trump keeping the tariff hike plan intact.
Trump directed federal agencies to scrutinize trade relations with neighbors and China.
Traders have raised dovish bets for the Fed’s May policy meeting.
Silver price (XAG/USD) drops slightly to near $30.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal faces pressures as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds strongly after President Donald Trump confirmed that the plan of tariff hikes on foreign countries is delayed not denied. On his first day at the White House, Trump mentioned that the proposal of universal tariff hikes is on the table, but “We are not ready for that yet”.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds sharply from its almost two-week low around 108.00, which it posted on Monday. Historically, a higher US Dollar weighs on precious metals, such as Silver, by making them expensive for investors.
The Greenback plummeted on Tuesday after reports from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) showed that tariff hikes were absent in a presidential memo. However, the memo indicated that Trump has directed federal agencies to study trade policies and evaluate trade relationships with China and other North American economies.
Meanwhile, the downside in the Silver price has been limited by falling bond yields. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets, such as Silver, which improves their appeal. 10-year US Treasury yields decline to 4.56%. US Treasury yields have slumped as trader expect that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates in the policy meeting in May.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability for the Fed to reduce interest rates in May has eased to 53% from 63% a week ago.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price struggles near the upward-sloping trendline around $30.80, which is plotted from 29 February 2024 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe.
The white metal discovered strong buying interest near the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $29.45 and but struggles to sustain above the 50-day EMA, which is around $30.30.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) faces pressure near 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would trigger if it manages to break above 60.00.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
