New Weekly Breakout Triggers

A weekly closing price above $3.61 will leave natural gas poised to rise into the next higher potential resistance zone. It is marked by the confluence of several indicators from $3.72 to $3.80. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target is at $3.72 and is followed by the neckline of a head and shoulders top formation at $3.73. There is an AVWAP level from the trend high $3.75 and further up is the 50-Day MA at $3.80. Given the potential significance of the 50-Day line, it marks the highest potential target for the current advance. But if it exceeded to the upside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $3.95 becomes a higher target.

Demand Improving

Natural gas is showing improving demand given the three-week breakout that triggered today and the likely strong weekly closing price, near the highs of the week. A one-week bullish reversal triggered earlier this week, and a strong weekly closing price would show buyers remained in charge heading into the weekend.

That strength could carry over into next week. Since the recent low of $2.86 established a higher swing low and it occurred at a recognized potential support area, the recent bearish correction should be complete, leaving natural gas in a position to further progress its long-term uptrend. Therefore, surprises may be on the upside rather than the downside.

Head and Shoulders Top Resistance Zone

Of course, natural gas is rising into a large potential resistance zone highlighted by the head and shoulders topping pattern. But it also advancing from a higher swing low near the lower end of a large rising parallel trend channel. The recent swing low established a higher slope for the trend, marked by a rising dashed line. A reversal from the lows of the channel suggests the possibility of an eventual advance to the top channel line.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

The CADCHF succeeded in activating the bullish track again by surpassing 61.8%Fibonacci correction level at 174.45, to notice recording clear gains by reaching 175.72.

The continuation of forming extra support and providing positive momentum by the main indicators, which will increase the chances for recording new gains, to expect reaching 176.10, and surpassing this barrier will make the price succeed to press on %78.1Fibonacci correction level at  176.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 174.90 and 176.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

Natural gas price attempted to renew the bullish attempts by its rally yesterday towards $3.550, but providing negative momentum by the main indicators, specifically stochastic exit from the overbought level, which pushed it to return to $3.440, easing the way for activating the bearish correctional track.

Therefore, we will begin preferring the bearish scenario, confirming that holding below the barrier at $3.600, reinforcing the chances for reaching $3.330 then targeting $3.210.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.330 and $3.520

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

Silver Follows Gold Higher as Rate Cut Hopes Build

Silver (XAG/USD) tracked gold’s momentum, trading at $32.62 and reaching an intra-day high of $32.71. The metal is benefiting from renewed interest in precious metals amid softening U.S. macroeconomic data.

This week’s ADP employment report signaled weakening private-sector job growth, while initial jobless claims jumped to 241,000, marking the highest reading since February.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI also remained in contraction at 48.7, underscoring broad economic deceleration.

Stronger Dollar, Trade Talks Cap Upside Momentum

Despite the rally, gains in gold remain capped as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) holds near a three-week high. Optimism over renewed trade negotiations between the U.S. and China—following remarks from China’s Commerce Ministry—has lent support to the greenback, dampening safe-haven demand.

“The stronger dollar is temporarily capping gains in bullion,” said a Hong Kong-based metals strategist. “But if the NFP misses, we could see a breakout above $3,270.”

Markets Price in Four Fed Rate Cuts by Year-End

According to CME FedWatch Tool data, markets are now pricing in four 25-basis-point rate cuts by December. With inflation cooling and labor data softening, the Fed may be forced to act sooner than initially projected.

• Gold price is set to book its third weekly gain on Friday, consolidating near two-week lows.
• The US Dollar pauses its recovery mode ahead of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls test.  
• Technically, the 21-day SMA guards the downside amid bullish daily RSI after the rising channel breakdown.

Gold price is nursing weekly losses early Friday, and it is on track to book its worst week in over two months. Gold buyers refuse to give up, anticipating the high-impact US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due later this Friday for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price eyes the US NFP report for some reprieve

Gold price is off the two-week lows of $3,202 set on Thursday, licking its wounds as traders refrain from placing any fresh directional bets heading into the key event risk for Friday – the US labor market report.

The US Dollar (USD) has been on a roll higher this week, thanks to easing trade tensions globally, with the US optimistic about reaching trade deals with its major Asian trading partners, including China.

Risk sentiment received a fresh lift earlier on after the local media reported the Chinese Commerce Ministry as saying that “the US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China,”

“China is currently evaluating this,” the Ministry added.

Further, easing US economic growth concerns also underpinned the sentiment around the Greenback, rendering it negative for the USD-denominated Gold price. Data showed on Thursday that the ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, against expectations for a bigger fall to 48. 

Early Friday,markets seem to have resorted to their position adjustments in the US Dollar, leading to a pause in its recent uptrend, while the bright metal also draws some support from the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical stand-off.

Attention now turns toward the US NFP data release for the next big action in the Gold price and the King Dollar.  

Markets expect the US NFP to show a 130,000 job gain in April, down from a stellar 228,000 job creations reported in March. The Unemployment Rate is set to remain steady at 4.2% in the same period.

If the headline NFP prints a reading below the 100,000 level, it could refuel concerns over the impact of tariffs on ŪS labor market. This narrative could double down on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) easing prospects, triggering a fresh US Dollar downside while rescuing the Gold price.

On the other hand, a positive surprise above the 200,000 figure could add extra legs to the Gold price correction, pushing back against expectations of a June interest rate cut and boosting the USD further.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price clings to the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, now at $3,234, pausing the correction accentuated by the downside break of a three-week-long rising channel on Wednesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just above the midline near 52.50, having ended its descent.

Therefore, a rebound toward the immediate static support-turned-resistance at $3,260 could be seen if the 21-day SMA holds on a weak US NFP report.

Acceptance above that level will prompt Gold buyers to flex their muscles toward the channel support (now resistance) at $3,405.

Ahead of that, the $3,350 could be a tough nut to crack.

If the US jobs data exceeds expectations by a wide margin, Gold sellers crack the 21-day SMA at $3,234 on a sustained basis, opening doors toward the $3,150 psychological level.

The 50-day SMA at $3,087 will be next on their radars.

• Gold price remains on the defensive near $3,235 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• De-escalation in the global trade conflict continues to undermine the Gold price. 
• Traders brace for the US April employment report, which is due later on Friday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) edges lower to a two-week low near $3,235 during the early Asian session on Friday. The easing of trade tensions between the US and its trading partners has dented the safe-haven demand, weighing on the precious metal. 

US President Donald Trump announced potential trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, seeking to convert his tariff policy into trade agreements. Furthermore, Chinese state media said late Thursday that the US has reached out toChina to begin trade talks regarding Trump’s 145% tariffs. 

The US Dollar (USD) strengthens due to this positive development, which makes gold less attractive to other currency buyers. “Market sees trade tensions de-escalating and is less concerned about the Fed independence, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets for now,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Following the weaker-than-expected US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released on Wednesday, the markets are now pricing higher chances of more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, although everything hinges on trade deals. This, in turn, might boost the non-yielding Gold price. 

The US April employment report will be the highlight later on Friday as it might propel the US Fed to start cutting rates sooner rather than later. If the report shows a weaker outcome, this could weigh on the USD and cap the downside for the USD-denominated commodity price. 

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) rose in its last intraday trading, settled above the resistance at $1.800, to move in its way to confirm breaching this stubborn resistance, and we are still waiting for a good close above it, while the continuation of the positive support due to its trading above EMA50, with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI).

Therefore, our expectations suggest (ETHUSD) price rise in their upcoming trading on the intraday levels, conditioned by its stability above $1,800, to target the next main resistance at $1,900.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,750 support and $1,865 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,214.00

• De-escalating global trade tensions backed demand for the US Dollar.
• Wall Street extends its Wednesday recovery in thin market conditions.
• XAU/USD trades at fresh two-week lows just above the $3,200 mark.

Gold price edged lower on Thursday, trading at fresh two-week highs just above the $3,200 mark. De-escalating global trade tensions backed demand for the US Dollar (USD) despite mixed first-tier figures released in the last two sessions. Stocks also benefited from the better mood, with Wall Street extending Wednesday’s rally.

Most Asian and European markets were closed amid the celebration of Labor Day, but the United States (US) ones worked normally. The country released some mixed data, as Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 rose by 241K, worse than the 224K anticipated and the previous weekly figure of 223K. The April ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), on the contrary, posted 48.7, down from the 49 posted in March, but better than the 48 expected.

Earlier in the day, US President Donald Trump noted progress on talks with some Asian countries, including India and Japan. Regarding China, Trump stated that there’s a “very good” chance of making a deal with China, yet added that any deal with Beijing has to be in US terms. Meanwhile, a Beijing-backed outlet reported on Thursday that United States officials have contacted their Chinese counterparts for talks.

Finally, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro down-talked data, saying, “I got to say just one thing about today’s news, that’s the best negative print I have ever seen in my life,” while saying he likes “where we’re at now.”

The week will end with the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The country is expected to have added 130K new job positions in April, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 4.2%, unchanged from March. Employment-related data ahead of the NFP report, however, hints at a soft reading, which may end up weighing on the USD.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows that the risk skews to the downside. The pair is down for a third consecutive day, piercing a mildly bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,232.10. The 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward slopes far below the current level, yet technical indicators head firmly south, approaching their midlines from above. Selling interest seems strong, and a break below $3,200 should open the door for a continued slide.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is poised to extend its slide. After meeting sellers around a mildly bullish 20 SMA, Gold slid below its 100 SMA, which, anyway, maintains its upward slope. Finally, technical indicators resumed their slides within negative levels, anticipating lower lows ahead.

Support levels: 3,200.00 3,188.30 3,176.40

Resistance levels: 3,232.10 3,245.20 3,261.70