• Silver price is declining as safe-haven demand for precious metals weakens amid easing trade-war concerns.
• President Trump highlighted progress in negotiations and confirmed recent communications with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
• Dollar-denominated silver is losing its appeal, with the US Dollar strengthening on growing optimism over improving US-China trade relations.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is depreciating after registering gains in the previous day, trading around $33.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The safe-haven demand for precious metals, including Silver, continues to weaken as trade-war concerns ease.

At the same time, dollar-denominated Silver loses its appeal, with the strengthening US Dollar (USD) making it more expensive for buyers using other currencies. The USD is gaining support as optimism grows over improving US-China trade relations.

US President Donald Trump recently signaled a willingness to roll back tariffs on China, while Beijing granted exemptions on certain US imports — moves that have fueled hopes for a potential resolution to the prolonged trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in an interview with CNBC on Monday that all arms of the US government are actively communicating with China. He noted that many major US trading partners have made “very good” tariff proposals, and China’s latest exemptions suggest a readiness to ease tensions.

President Trump also emphasized progress in negotiations and confirmed ongoing dialogue with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is seeking to reduce the impact of automotive tariffs by preventing overlapping duties on foreign vehicles and lowering tariffs on imported car parts.

Traders are turning their attention to several key US economic reports this week, including the preliminary Q1 GDP reading, March PCE inflation data, and April Nonfarm Payrolls figures. These releases are expected to offer important insights into the Federal Reserve’s potential policy moves and the broader economic outlook.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,324.03

• The US Dollar fell in the American session following dismal US data.
• The US will release the preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP on Wednesday.
• XAU/USD is technically neutral in the near term, although odds favor the upside.

Spot Gold trades uneventfully within familiar levels on Wednesday, currently hovering around the $3,325 level. The bright metal shed some ground at the beginning of the day amid near-term US Dollar (USD) demand, yet buyers took their chances around the $3,300 mark.

The USD turned lower following the release of dismal United States (US) data, as Consumer Confidence, as measured by CB, fell to 86 in April, its lowest since October 2021. Additionally, the number of job openings in the country on the last business day of March stood at 7.19 million, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), easing from the previous 7.48 million openings (revised from 7.56 million) reported in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million.

Still, the positive tone of equities limited demand for Gold, maintaining the XAU/USD within familiar levels.

Market players are waiting for Wednesday’s data before committing to a certain direction, given that the macroeconomic calendar will be filled with first-tier events. Australia and Germany will publish inflation updates, while Germany, the Eurozone, Canada and the US will release Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The US economy is expected to have grown at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the three months to March, sharply down from the 2.4% posted in the last quarter of 2024.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the risk skews to the upside, yet the momentum is missing. The pair develops well above all its moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,220, while far above the 100 and 200 SMAs. Technical indicators remain well above their midlines, but turned modestly lower, not enough to suggest an upcoming slide.

The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD keeps seesawing around a directionless 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs keep heading higher over $100 below the current level. Finally, technical indicators turned flat just above their midlines, reflecting the absence of directional strength. The bullish case could gain adepts if XAU/USD extends gains beyond its recent range’s top in the $3,370/80 region.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,375.00

Likely Bottom Established

Nonetheless, there are indications that the recent swing low of $2.86 may have completed a bottom for natural gas. This would mean that a drop below today’s low may eventually generate a higher swing low and the first pullback following Monday’s bullish reversal on a weekly time frame. The 200-Day MA was also reclaimed yesterday with a breakout confirmed by a daily close above the 200-Day line.

Support Confluence

Support for the bottom of the bearish correction was found at the AVWAP level started from the 2024 trend bottom. This gives it extra validity given the reaction since support was at an AVWAP level for the full uptrend. In addition, there was symmetry in the recent correction on a percentage basis. The price of natural gas fell by as much as 41.5% from the recent trend high of $4.90, while the prior large correction from June 2024 saw a price decline of 40.7%. Nonetheless, the current advance is a counter-trend rally within a larger bearish downtrend price structure.

Daily Close Above 20-Day MA will Confirm Strength

A daily close above the 20-Day MA would be a confirmation of strength that could lead to higher prices. That would be needed before there is an indication that buyers are returning, and that bullish sentiment may be sustained. Key potential support during weakness is around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.09, while this week’s low is at $3.05. Once this week ends, that low will be critical to the developing weekly trend of higher weekly highs and higher weekly lows.

On a monthly basis, natural gas looks likely to end the month above the lows of December through February, which were breached during the recent decline, thereby providing one more piece of evidence that buyers are starting to take back control.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

UiPath’s stock price (PATH) edged higher in latest intraday trading, while trying to pierce the pivotal resistance of $11.40, representing the neckline of a positive technical pattern that formed in the short term, the Double Bottom pattern, while supported by positive signals from the Stochastic despite reaching overbought levels, as the stock tries to shake off negative pressure from the 50-day SMA.

Therefore we expect more gains for the stock, provided it settles above $11.40, targeting the resistance of $13.25 as a price target for that Double Bottom pattern.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish

The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaching the barrier at 191.55 yesterday, affected by the moving average 55 above it, which forces it to form sideways trading, to be confined between this barrier and the support level at 190.50.

Monitoring the price behavior and waiting for its rally above the barrier, to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, targeting 192.40 level, reaching the next target near 193.15, while reaching below the support will cancel the positive suggestion to force the price suffer several losses, starting at 189.70 and 188.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

Copper price continued providing sideways trading, to keep the negative stability below the barrier at $4.9100, which forms a main factor that confirms the suggested bearish scenario, note that gathering the negative momentum is important to begin targeting negative stations that are located near $4.6600 and $4.5600.

Noting that the price rally above the current barrier and holding above it, will confirm the negative attack, which provides chances for recording extra gains by its rally towards $4.9600 and $5.0400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver price gains to near $33.30 amid uncertainty over US-China trade relations.
• US Bessent has stated that China should initiate trade discussions with them.
• Investors await the US JOLTS Job Openings data for March.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades higher to near $33.30 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The white metal gains as investors start doubting whether de-escalation in the trade war between the United States (US) and China is underway.

A fresh boost in uncertainty over US-China trade relations has come from comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that Beijing should be the one to commence trade talks. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Monday. However, Bessent indicated that trade discussions with other nations are going well.

Though Bessent’s comments have indicated that the trade war will be majorly between Washington and Beijing, the stand-off is expected to keep global economic tensions heightened. Theoretically, the Silver price performs strongly when fears of global economic turmoil escalate.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) rises ahead of the US JOLTS Job Openings data for March, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, move higher to near 99.30. Investors expect US employers to have posted 7.5 million jobs, marginally lower than 7.56 million seen in February.

This week, investors will pay close attention to a slew of US economic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price aims to revisit an over three-week high around $33.70. The near-term outlook of the white metal remains bullish as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.73.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to break above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI breaks above that level.

Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.

Silver daily chart

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade relations with key partners were “progressing,” reinforcing the risk-on mood in equity markets.

Despite short-term pressure, gold remains underpinned by expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Futures markets now price in a 76% probability of a rate cut by June, with three total cuts expected by year-end, according to CME FedWatch.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding metals, providing a buffer against aggressive declines.

Upcoming US economic data—including the JOLTS job openings, core PCE inflation, and April’s Nonfarm Payrolls—may serve as catalysts. Until then, metals are likely to remain sensitive to macro crosscurrents and dollar positioning.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold hovers near $3,315, supported by $3,270, as markets await key U.S. data. Silver steadies above $33, but momentum hinges on a breakout above $33.27 to confirm upside.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

The GBPJPY pair failed to confirm breaching the barrier at 191.55 yesterday, affected by the moving average 55 above it, which forces it to form sideways trading, to be confined between this barrier and the support level at 190.50.

Monitoring the price behavior and waiting for its rally above the barrier, to increase the efficiency of the bullish track, targeting 192.40 level, reaching the next target near 193.15, while reaching below the support will cancel the positive suggestion to force the price suffer several losses, starting at 189.70 and 188.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

Copper price continued providing sideways trading, to keep the negative stability below the barrier at $4.9100, which forms a main factor that confirms the suggested bearish scenario, note that gathering the negative momentum is important to begin targeting negative stations that are located near $4.6600 and $4.5600.

Noting that the price rally above the current barrier and holding above it, will confirm the negative attack, which provides chances for recording extra gains by its rally towards $4.9600 and $5.0400.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.8400

Trend forecast: Bearish