XAU/USD Current price: $3,309.10

• US employment and growth data missed expectations, spurring risk aversion.
• Inflation in the United States, as measured by the PCE index, eased in March.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, bearish potential remains well-limited.

Spot Gold fell throughout the first half of the day, extending its intraday slump to a fresh weekly low of $3,267.01. The XAU/USD pair traded on sentiment, falling after the release of tepid United States (US) data.

On the one hand, the April ADP Employment Change report showed that the private sector added measly 62K new job positions, much worse than the 108K expected, while below the previous 147K. On the other hand, the preliminary estimate of the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also missed expectations, as the economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.3% against the anticipated 0.4% expansion, and sharply down from the previous 2.4%.

Wall Street fell as an immediate reaction to the news, with the US Dollar (USD) reacting unevenly across the FX board, gaining ground against commodity-linked currencies and the bright metal.

However, stocks quickly changed course, and so did XAU/USD, as the US March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index brought some optimism. PCE inflation was up 0.5% on a monthly basis and 2.3% from a year earlier, slightly above expectations yet shrinking from the February levels. At the time being, US indexes remain in the red, but are well off early lows. While the USD came under selling pressure.

The upcoming Asian session will bring the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision. Japanese officials are likely to keep interest rates on hold amid trade-war-related uncertainties. The Japanese yen (JPY) is likely to turn south with the expected decision and a suspected downgrade to economic prospects, which could result in an extra near-term USD impulse.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair recovered the $3,300 mark and currently hovers around $3,310, with the upside limited. In the daily chart, the pair trades above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing relevant dynamic support at around $3,230. The 100 and 200 SMAs advance below it, while technical indicators extend their slides within positive levels, suggesting buyers remain sidelined.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is neutral. The bright metal hovers around a directionless 20 SMA, although the longer moving averages advance below the mentioned intraday low, suggesting a limited bearish potential. Finally, technical indicators turned flat at around their midlines, failing to provide clear directional clues.

Support levels: 3,301.40 3,288.70 3,267.00

Resistance levels: 3,327.90 3,344.60 3,358.10

Possible Weekly Support Zone

There is a recent weekly high and low at $3.23 to $3.19 where there could be signs of support. But if that fails as support natural gas may be heading for a possible test of the 200-Day MA, now at $3.09. Also, there is this week’s low at $3.05. Since a drop below that level after this week would indicate a failure of the weekly bullish reversal that was established this week, it seems unlikely. Therefore, the current expectation would be for support to be found at the 200-Day line or above it if a deeper pullback follows today.

Bottom Likely Established

Nevertheless, the are reasons to believe that a bottom for the bearish correction was established last week at $2.86. That was right at support identified by the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) that began from the long-term trend low established in February 2024. Despite the one-day pullback, a decisive advance above today’s high would indicate a possible bullish continuation before a deeper pullback. Strength would be confirmed on a rally above Tuesday’s high of $3.46. Since the 20-Day MA is at today’s high of $3.40, it would be reclaimed on a breakout above today’s high.

Upper Resistance Zone at $3.61 to $3.64

Higher initial targets look to start around $3.61 to $3.64. The upper end of the range was the peak in 2023 and the top of a large symmetrical triangle formation that subsequently formed. However, more significant price levels are around the AVWAP level from the recent trend high on March 10 around $3.76 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.82. The advance that began this week is a counter-trend rally within a downtrend pattern and therefore rallies will be heading up into a consolidation zone that presents a range of potential selling pressure.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Blackrock’s stock price (BLK) rose in latest intraday trading, testing the downward trend line in the short term, and coinciding with touching the resistance of the 50-day SMA, bolstering the strength of this area as a resistance against the stock’s gains, especially with negative signals streaming from the Stochastic after reaching overbought levels compared to the price’s movements. 

 Therefore we expect the price to decline the first support at $887.00, provided the pivotal resistance of $929.00 holds on.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

The dollar index climbed 0.2%, driven by positive signals from U.S. trade policy and typical month-end demand. President Trump signed executive orders on Tuesday aimed at easing the burden of auto tariffs, while administration officials confirmed a trade deal has been reached with at least one foreign partner.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also suggested additional agreements with countries like India and South Korea are underway. The improved outlook helped the greenback recover ground, pressuring gold by increasing its cost in other currencies.

Gold Faces Pressure from Trade Relief, But Risk Appetite Remains Fragile

Although trade tensions have eased, the gold market has not broken down. China’s move to suspend tariffs on several U.S. goods, including ethane and some semiconductor products, signaled softening positions on both sides. However, the limited downside in gold suggests markets remain cautious, with investors still using the metal as a hedge against policy uncertainty and broader economic weakness.

U.S. Economic Data Could Shift Fed Expectations

Traders are watching for today’s U.S. GDP report, expected to show zero growth, and the March PCE inflation reading forecast at 2.2%. These data points are crucial for shaping Fed policy expectations. Weaker readings could support gold by pushing yields and the dollar lower, while stronger numbers might raise rate hike bets, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Holds Above Key Support Zone

• Gold price extends its consolidative mode into a fifth straight trading day early Wednesday.  
• The US Dollar holds a modest uptick amid a cautiously optimistic market mood.
• Gold price clings to the rising channel support; buyers refuse to give in ahead of the US GDP release.  

Gold price holds lower ground in Asian trading on Wednesday, but remains within a familiar range. Gold traders eagerly await the release of the US first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for a fresh directional impetus.

Gold price looks to high-impact US data flow

The first look of the US annualised GDP is expected to show a 0.4% growth in Q1 2025, down from a robust 2.4% expansion in the final quarter of 2024. Goldman Sachs economists expect a negative 0.2% growth.

The expected significant slowdown in the US growth could be attributed to a likely import surge as US firms stocked up on inventory to get ahead of the US tariffs.

If the world’s largest economy shows an unexpected contraction, it would refuel recession fears and bring back bets for aggressive Fed rate cuts to the table, reviving the US Dollar (USD) downtrend. This, in turn, would lift the Gold price back toward record highs.

However, a smaller-than-expected cooldown in the US economy growth could provide a brief relief to broader markets and the US Dollar (USD), allowing Gold sellers to build on their corrective downside.

However, traders will remain cautious and refrain from creating fresh directional positions in the Gold price heading toward Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, limiting any reaction in Gold price.

The US NFP data will help markets assess if there has been any material impact of US tariffs on the labor market.

Markets will also scrutinize the quarterly core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data that will be released alongside the GDP figures.

In the meantime, the Greenback defends gains as markets take stock of the recent tariffs headlines. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to ease the impact of his auto tariffs. Meanwhile, Trump has adjusted the 25% tariffs on auto parts, which were set to take effect on May 3.

Markets also find some consolation from chatter surrounding progress on trade deals between the US and some of its Asian trading partners.  

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has defended the three-week-long rising channel support so far this week, currently testing the water underneath.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) still holds above the midline, cushioning any downside in Gold price.  

To confirm a downside break of the rising channel pattern, Gold price must find acceptance below the rising trendline support, now at $3,351, on a daily closing basis.  

The next support aligns at the $3,300 round level, below which the $3,260 demand area will be tested.

A sustained break below the latter will put the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,224 to the test, followed by the 50-day SMA at $3,075.

Conversely, Gold buyers must find a firm foothold above the channel support-turned-resistance at $3,351 to revive the uptrend toward the $3,370 static resistance.

A sustained recovery will target the $3,400 and the record high of $3,500 thereafter.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

The (GBPUSD) price witnessed calm downside moves in its last trading on the intraday levels, affected by the stability of the critical resistance at 1.3420, and the main overview remains prefer the positivity, especially with the stability of the price above EMA50, which reinforces the chances for a bullish rebound any moment, to attempt to gain positive momentum that might assist it to breach this resistance.

The continuation of the trading alongside a bullish bias line on the short-term basis, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), suggesting a potential regain for the positive momentum, which increases the possibilities from breaching the mentioned resistance.

The (GBPUSD) price witnessed calm downside moves in its last trading on the intraday levels, affected by the stability of the critical resistance at 1.3420, and the main overview remains prefer the positivity, especially with the stability of the price above EMA50, which reinforces the chances for a bullish rebound any moment, to attempt to gain positive momentum that might assist it to breach this resistance.

The continuation of the trading alongside a bullish bias line on the short-term basis, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), suggesting a potential regain for the positive momentum, which increases the possibilities from breaching the mentioned resistance.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negativity on the moving average 55 by forming an extra barrier at 191.55, which forces it to provide more of the sideways trading, to fluctuate near the support at 190.50.

Noting that stochastic exit from the overbought level might increase the negative pressures, which forces the price to break the current support, to confirm its return to the bearish track, to suffer several losses by reaching 189.70 and 188.60, while confirming the bullish scenario needs a clear breach to 191.55, and holding above it to begin achieving gains, which might be near 192.40 reaching 193.15.

The expected trading range for today is between 190.50 and 191.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

• Gold price declines to $3,315 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Easing trade tensions weighs on the Gold price. 
• The US ADP Employment Change, PCE and the flash Q1 GDP reports will be the highlights later on Wednesday. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the decline to near $3,315 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal edges lower amid easing trade tensions and better risk sentiment in global markets. Traders will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE) and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports, which are due later on Wednesday. 

US President Donald Trump plans to soften the impact of his automotive tariffs by preventing duties on foreign-made cars from stacking with other tariffs and easing levies on foreign parts used in car manufacturing, officials said. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that key trade partners have made “very good” offers to avoid US tariffs. Additionally, recent moves to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs demonstrate a willingness to de-escalate trade tensions. 

Easing trade tensions has reduced demand for gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. “The easing came amid the US opening tariff talks with multiple nations and growing expectations of a possible China-US trade agreement according to US President Donald Trump. Additionally, optimism around a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal further weighed on safe-haven demand for gold,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.

Investors await a slew of important US economic data this week for fresh impetus. The US ADP Employment Change, Personal Consumption ExpendituresPrice Index (PCE), and the flash Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reports will be published later on Wednesday. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US April employment report. 

The expectation for April is that the US economy will add 130,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.2%. If the reports show a weaker-than-expected outcome, this could drag the Greenback lower and boost the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.