Is Weather Demand Too Weak to Support Prices?

Weather forecasts continue to lean bearish. According to NatGasWeather, the next 15 days will bring near-ideal conditions for most of the U.S., with highs in the 60s to 80s dominating the map. This “shoulder season” setup, where neither heating nor cooling demand is significant, is keeping national demand light. Atmospheric G2 further expects above-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S. through April 30, suggesting no weather-based support in the near term.

Production Growth and Storage Trends Undercut Price Support

Supply-side fundamentals remain stubbornly loose. Lower-48 dry gas production on Monday was reported at 106.8 Bcf/d, up 6.9 Bcf year-over-year, while demand lagged at just 65.9 Bcf/d, down 7.3% y/y. Despite LNG feedgas flows of 15.0 Bcf/d, the supply-demand imbalance is pressuring prices lower. Even so, storage is tighter than normal—last week’s EIA report showed a build of just +16 Bcf, well below expectations of +24 Bcf and the 5-year average increase of +50 Bcf. Inventories now sit 3.9% below their five-year average and nearly 21% below last year’s levels.

LNG Expansion and Electricity Demand Offer Long-Term Support

While short-term drivers are bearish, some long-term fundamentals remain constructive. The U.S. is seeing stronger electricity output, with Edison Electric Institute reporting a 6.4% y/y rise in the week ended April 12. This may eventually lift gas demand from utilities. Additionally, the resumption of LNG export approvals under President Trump could unlock new demand in the future, especially if more terminals advance through the approval pipeline.

Will Prices Hold or Slip Below the 200-Day Moving Average?

The 200-day moving average at $2.901 remains critical. Monday’s test held, but with little weather-driven demand ahead and production staying high, downside pressure remains in place.

Near-term outlook leans bearish, with the potential for further declines if support at $2.901 gives way. A hold could spark short-covering, but without a demand driver, rallies are likely to be capped.

More Information in our Natural Gas Futures.

There is currently no technical resistance above current levels, leaving gold to trade vertically. Key support levels have adjusted higher with the pivot now at $3,228.38, while the 50-day moving average—considered the major support level—sits lower at $3,027.23. Traders are eyeing the potential for a closing price reversal top, which could trigger a short-term correction. However, the broader uptrend remains intact as long as buying strength continues to dominate market sentiment.

Trump’s Fed Criticism Weighs on Dollar, Boosts Bullion

The rally gained momentum after Trump sharply criticized Powell on social media, calling him a “major loser” and demanding immediate interest rate cuts. Trump argued that inflation is under control and suggested that without rate cuts, the U.S. economy could stall. These remarks pressured the U.S. dollar to fresh three-year lows and triggered a sharp 2.4% sell-off in equities—conditions typically favorable for gold.

No Forced Liquidation Despite Stock Sell-Off

Unlike previous sell-offs in equities, gold prices have not suffered from distressed liquidation or margin call selling. This signals firm conviction in bullion holdings, even as traders digest political risk and monetary policy uncertainty. The usual inverse correlation between stocks and gold has broken down temporarily, with bullion rising even as financial markets decline—underscoring its role as a hedge in times of stress.

Gold Prices Forecast

With political risk escalating and Fed policy under a microscope, gold remains well supported above $3,200. As long as buyers remain aggressive, and the dollar stays under pressure, the next psychological target is $3,600. Traders should watch upcoming Fed speeches closely for any hint of policy shifts, but for now, the trend remains firmly bullish.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The CADJPY kept providing negative trading, to remain stable below 61.8% Fibonacci correction level, which represents an extra barrier at 103.55, to notice by the above image, that it suffers clear losses by its stability near 101.50.

Notet that the main indicators unity by validating negative momentum, specifically reaching to 20 level, makes us prefer more of the negative trading, which might target 100.40 reaching 78.1% Fibonacci correction level at 99.45.

The expected trading range for today is between 100.40 and 102.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price repeated providing strong positive pressures on the $972.00 level, which represents the extension of the broken bullish channel’s support, getting an advantage from its stability above the moving average 55, which increases the chances of entering the bullish channel’s levels again.

Confirming the breach makes us expect reaching 50% Fibonacci correction level at $984.00, and breaching this obstacle will extend the trading in the near period towards achieving extra gains that might begin at $994.00 and $1005.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $960.00 and $984.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold price keeps its record run intact above $3,450 early Tuesday after posting a 3% gain on Monday.
• Trump’s attacks on Fed’s Powell and fears over the US’s financial stability continue to power Gold price rally.
• Gold price could see a brief pullback as the RSI enters a heavily overbought region on the daily chart.

Gold price extends its record run into the second consecutive day on Tuesday as buyers refuse to give up yet while keeping their sights on the $3,500 threshold.  

Gold price keeps rallying on Trump again

Just as the US-China trade war-led US recession fears weren’t enough to sap investors’ confidence, US President Donald Trump doubled down on his criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell since last Friday, negatively impacting the already beleaguered US Dollar (USD), lifting the traditional safe-haven and the USD-denominated Gold price.

Trump continued his verbal attacks on Powell, raising concerns about the central bank’s independence, prompting investors to show no confidence in the US currency. Trump noted on Monday that the US economy is headed for a slowdown “unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates NOW.”

Responding to Trump’s criticism, the Fed whisperer and Wall Street Journal’s (WSJ) Nick Timiraos said, “Trump is signalling that he will blame the Federal Reserve for any economic weakness resulting from his trade war if the central bank doesn’t cut interest rates soon. “In the process, he might also be seeking to delegitimize the historically independent institution in a way that could undermine its effectiveness,” Nick added.

Despite the latest uptick in the US Dollar, this narrative remains a constant threat while rendering positive for the go-to safety bet – the Gold price.

Looking ahead, Gold price could see a brief correction as traders will likely cash in on their longs, positioning for the notable US earnings on the docket this week, including Magnificent Seven members Tesla and Alphabet, and a host of high-profile industrials such as Boeing etc.

However, any dip in Gold price could be seen as a good buying opportunity as the US-China trade war escalation and worries over the Fed’s independence will continue to haunt markets.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Any corrective declines in Gold price could be justified as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains heavily overbought, currently near 79.

If Gold sellers manage to fight back control, Gold price could initially retreat toward the $3,400 mark, below which the previous day’s low of $3,329 will be tested.

Further south, the April 18i low of $3,284 will likely come to the rescue of buyers.

On a sustained uptrend, Gold price targets the $3,500 barrier, above which the $3,550 psychological level will challenge bearish commitments.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,414.05

• US President Donald Trump renewed his attack on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
• US indexes collapse amid concerns about the economic performance under Trump.
• XAU/USD is likely to keep posting record highs, with dips seen as buying opportunities.

Spot Gold traded as high as $3,430.36 on Monday, rallying on continued US Dollar (USD) weakness. Market players keep losing confidence in the Greenback amid United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decisions.

After launching a trade war with all its trading counterparts, Trump has chosen a new target: Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. The US President complained last Thursday about Powell’s decision to go slow with rate cuts. Even further, he called for his dismissal, saying Powell’s “termination cannot come fast enough.”

Trump lifted the bets on Monday, posting “Preemptive cuts in interest rates are being called for by many. With energy costs way down, food prices (including Biden’s egg disaster!) substantially lower, and most other ‘things’ trending down, there is virtually no inflation,” calling Powell Mr. Too Late and a major loser.

Other than that, the American President reported progress on talks with Russia and Ukraine. According to his words, there is a good chance a deal will be done this week. His latest words, however, fell short of impressing investors, with all the major US indexes in sell-off mode.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is poised to extend its gains. The daily chart shows it keeps moving above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,134. The distance between the closest moving average and the current price is a clear indication of the strong buying momentum. At the same time, technical indicators keep heading north, despite standing in overbought readings, another sign of bulls’ dominance.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD has room to extend its advance. Technical indicators eased modestly from their recent highs but lack any bearish momentum. Particularly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at around 81 with no signs of giving back. Finally, the 20 SMA accelerated north above the longer ones, while offering dynamic support in the $3,320 region.

Support levels:3,400.00 3,386.40 3,375.50

Resistance levels: 3,430.40 3,445.00 3,460.00

Despite being far above its key support levels—pivot support at $3,177.23 and the 50-day MA at $3,015.58—the gold market is not showing typical signs of exhaustion. Instead of cooling, investors are using upside breakouts to add positions. While positioning may appear crowded, there is no technical reversal pattern yet to suggest a top.

Gold Prices Forecast: Bullish Bias Remains Intact

With the dollar under pressure, Fed credibility in question, and geopolitical risks escalating, the outlook for gold remains bullish. The next potential target for bulls sits around $3,500, according to UBS, and unless a confirmed reversal pattern emerges, traders are likely to continue buying dips. Dollar weakness remains the primary driver, and until that changes, gold’s rally shows no signs of topping out.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Dollar Slides, Boosting Bullion Appeal

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) fell to a three-year low, reducing the cost of dollar-denominated metals for international buyers. “Markets are increasingly pricing in structural risks—ranging from trade disruptions to long-term inflation—while continued central bank accumulation offers additional support,” said Yeap Jun Rong, strategist at IG.

The shift in currency sentiment comes as President Trump’s administration moves forward with broad-based tariff plans.

While exemptions were granted to some countries, the focus remains on China, where trade talks have stagnated. Beijing, in response, warned against bilateral deals that could undermine its position in ongoing negotiations.

Fed Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Shape Market Tone

Investors are also watching developments at the Federal Reserve, where speculation around leadership persists. The White House has reportedly revisited discussions about replacing Chair Jerome Powell, a move that would further complicate monetary policy signals at a time when inflation remains uneven and growth momentum fragile.

Meanwhile, geopolitical instability—particularly across Eastern Europe—is adding to the cautious mood in financial markets. Although a temporary ceasefire had been announced, reports of renewed conflict have raised doubts about any meaningful de-escalation in the near term.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold eyes $3,404 as bulls defend key support near $3,368; silver holds above $32.63 with upside capped at $33.11 unless volume confirms a breakout.

Warm Forecasts Undermine Short-Term Demand

The primary drag on prices came from updated weather projections. Atmospheric G2 reported warmer-than-normal conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. for April 22–26, reducing the need for heating demand. With storage builds now expected to accelerate, traders leaned bearish, even as technical indicators show the market holding above its 200-day moving average at $2.897.

Bullish Inventory Data Offers Temporary Support

The EIA reported a +16 Bcf injection for the week ended April 11, well below forecasts of +24 Bcf and the five-year average increase of +50 Bcf. While this bullish surprise triggered a round of short covering, it wasn’t enough to change the broader sentiment driven by warming temperatures. As of April 11, U.S. natural gas inventories were 20.9% below year-ago levels and 3.9% below the five-year average.

Production Stable, But Demand Picture Mixed

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Thursday reached 105.6 Bcf/day, up 5.4% year-over-year, while demand stood at 70.1 Bcf/day, up 2.2%. LNG flows to export terminals dropped to 15.5 Bcf/day, down 4.8% from the prior week. Electricity demand, however, remained supportive. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 6.4% year-over-year jump in power generation for the week ending April 12, potentially signaling stronger gas burn from utilities.

Market Forecast

• Silver regains positive traction at the start of a new week following Friday’s modest slide.
• The technical setup seems tilted in favor of bulls and supports prospects for further gains.
• Any corrective pullback towards the $32.00 mark could be seen as a buying opportunity.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some dip-buyers at the start of a new week and touches an intraday high, around the $32.80 region during the Asian session. The white metal, however, remains below the $33.00 mark and a nearly two-week high touched last Thursday, warranting some caution for bullish traders.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD now seems to have found acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent slump from the March swing high to a fresh year-to-date low touched earlier this month. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction and support prospects for a further near-term appreciating move.

However, it will still be prudent to wait for a sustained strength beyond the $33.00 mark, or the 78.6% Fibo. level, before placing fresh bullish bets. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive momentum towards the $33.20 area, en route to the next relevant hurdle near the $33.50-$33.55 region and the $34.00 neighborhood, or a multi-month peak touched in March.

On the flip side, Friday’s swing low, around the $32.10-$32.05 region, or the 61.8% Fibo. level might continue to act as an immediate support. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $31.35-$31.30 area, or the 50% Fibo. level. A convincing break below, however, might prompt technical selling and make the XAG/USD vulnerable.

The subsequent further might then drag the XAG/USD below the $31.00 round-figure mark, towards the $30.55 area, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. The downward trajectory could extend further toward the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the $29.55 region (23.6% Fibo.). The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if broken might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.