• Silver climbs, breaching 200-day SMA at $29.98, enhancing buying momentum.
• Major resistance at $31.00; break could aim for December 12 high of $32.32.
• Pullback below 50-day SMA might prompt retest of 200-day SMA, down to $28.74.

Silver’s price stages a comeback, rising above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.32 and eyeing a break of the 100-day SMA. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $30.64, having gained over 2.64% on Wednesday.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On its way toward its current price, XAG/USD cleared the 200-day SMA at $29.98, which exacerbated the upward move. Yet buyers need to clear the 100-day SMA at $30.82 so Silver can extend its gains.

Momentum favors further upside, yet consolidation lies ahead as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is flat, but above the latest peak.

If buyers clear the 100-day SMA, $31.00 emerges as the next key resistance level. A break above this level opens the door to testing the latest cycle high at $32.32, the December 12 daily high.

On the other hand, if sellers step in and push XAG/USD below the 50-day SMA, it could pave the way towards $29.98, the 200-day SMA. On further weakness, the next stop would be December’s 19 swing low of $28.74.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Brent oil price attempted to rise but it declines again to keep the correctional bearish scenario active for today, waiting to visit 79.404 as a first station, which breaking it represents the key to extend the bearish wave towards 77.83$ areas.

Therefore, our bearish overview will remain valid and active unless breaching 81.00$ and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 78.40$ support and 81.40$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,692.42

• A better market mood puts pressure on US Treasury yields and the Greenback.
• The December United States Consumer Price Index came in line with market’s expectations.
• XAU/USD maintains its bullish strength and aims to extend gains towards record highs.

Spot Gold peaked at $2695.96 on Wednesday, helped by a bout of risk appetite. The upbeat sentiment was a combination of encouraging United States (US) earnings reports and the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. On the one hand, major US banks reported results that exceeded expectations. Goldman Sachs’ profits doubled in Q4, while JP Morgan announced that large asset and wealth management grew in the same period.

Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the CPI rose 2.9% on a yearly basis in December from 2.7% in November, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported, matching expectations. When compared to the previous month, the CPI was up 0.4%, after adding 0.3% in the previous month. The annual core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.2%, below the expected 3.3%. The news sent stocks skyrocketing and bond yields lower as investors lifted bets on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming rate cuts.

The macroeconomic calendar will have little to offer in the upcoming days, beyond US Retail Sales scheduled for Thursday. Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% in December after adding 0.7% in November.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades around $2,690 maintaining the bullish tone, as it keeps developing above all its moving averages, although the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 100 SMA converge around $2.635 with no directional strength,  yet acting as dynamic support. At the same time, technical indicators head north within positive levels, reflecting buyers still hold the grip.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, Gold is neutral-to-bullish. The XAU/USD quickly recovered after a dip towards a flat 20 SMA, currently providing dynamic support at around $2,677. The longer moving averages post tepid advances below the shorter one. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength, with the Momentum indicator stuck to its 100 level and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator easing at around 60.

Support levels: 2,675.00 2,660.70 2,645.15  

Resistance levels: 2,697.90 2,725.00 2,738.15

• Silver gains positive traction for the second straight day, though the upside seems limited.
• The recent decline along a descending channel points to a well-established downtrend.
• Neutral oscillators on the daily chart further warrant some caution for bullish traders. 

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers for the second straight day and climbs back above the $30.00 psychological mark during the first half of the European session on Wednesday. The technical setup, however, warrants some caution for bullish traders and before positioning for any further appreciating move.

The recent pullback from the vicinity of the $35.00 mark, or a multi-year peak touched in October, has been along a descending channel, which points to a well-established downtrend. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart – though have recovered from bearish territory – are yet to gain positive traction. Hence, any subsequent move up might continue to confront some hurdle near the top boundary of the said channel, around the $30.45 region. 

This is followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged ahead of the $31.00 round figure. A sustained strength beyond the latter will suggest that a nearly three-month-old corrective decline has run its course and pave the way for further gains. The XAG/USD might then accelerate the positive move towards the $31.70 intermediate hurdle en route to the $32.00 mark and the December swing high, around the $32.30-$32.35 region. 

On the flip side, the weekly trough, around mid-$29.00s touched on Monday, could offer immediate support. A convincing break below will reaffirm the negative setup and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to weaken further below the $29.00 mark, towards retesting the $28.75-$28.70 support, or a multi-month low touched in December. Some follow-through selling will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for a further depreciating move.

Silver daily chart

Brent oil price attempted to rise but it declines again to keep the correctional bearish scenario active for today, waiting to visit 79.404 as a first station, which breaking it represents the key to extend the bearish wave towards 77.83$ areas.

Therefore, our bearish overview will remain valid and active unless breaching 81.00$ and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 78.40$ support and 81.40$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bearish

Key Support Shows at 3.67 to 3.64

A key support zone starts is indicated around the confluence of several indicators. It starts with the 50% retracement at 3.67 and includes the 20-Day MA around 3.66. However, the more significant price level is 3.64. That was the peak in 2023, and it created a lower swing high for the downtrend and subsequently led to a decline to the 2024 trend low of 1.52.

If natural gas can continue to trade above the bottom of the range at 3.64 it looks to have a good chance of retaining the near-term rising trend structure. Otherwise, a sustained decline below 3.64 heads to test support of the 50-Day MA at 3.29. If that level fails to lead to a bullish reversal, then 3.02 becomes a target, followed by the top boundary line for a large symmetrical triangle formation.

Bearish Candle on Monday

Both Monday’s rally and the prior swing high at 4.20 from December 30 found resistance around the top line of the larger trend channel (solid blue). Therefore, that top line continues to mark areas where resistance may be seen if natural gas is able to again strengthen and test recent highs. There is a pattern like a bearish wedge when considering the rising lower solid trendline that coincides with the January 3 swing low at 3.33. The top line of the wedge would be the dashed blue line connecting the 3.02 swing high.

Hit ABCD Target

It is interesting to note that Monday’s advance completed a rising ABCD pattern (purple) at 4.33 before strong resistance was encountered following the 4.37 high. A quick bearish intraday reversal and weak daily close followed. The ABCD pattern is measuring price symmetry of the two upswings in the pattern. The AB leg is the first leg up and the CD leg is the second. Once the two swings show the same appreciation in price, the potential for a pivot, resistance in this case, may improve.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Ethereum price (ETHUSD) provided additional positive trades to test 3222.00$ level, noticing that the price is attempting to breach this level to hint stopping the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades and regain the main bullish trend again, on its way to achieve gains that start by testing 3425.50$ level.

Therefore, the bullish bias will be expected for today, noting that failing to confirming breaching 3222.00$ will stop the bullish wave and push the price to decline again.

The expected trading range for today is between 3130.00$ support and 3400.00$ resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Silver prices edged lower amid a risk-on market sentiment, driven by optimism as Trump’s incoming team considered gradual tariff hikes.
• The non-yielding Silver depreciates as the recent US labor market data reinforced the Fed’s hawkish policy stance in January.
• The industrial demand for Silver could increase following China’s recent stimulus measures.

Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent gains from the previous session, trading around $29.80 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The price of the safe-haven Silver faces challenges due to risk-on market sentiment following reports about US President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team considering a gradual increase in import tariffs boosted investor confidence.

Bloomberg reported on Monday that Trump’s incoming administration is evaluating a phased approach to implementing tariffs, aiming to prevent a sharp rise in inflation while managing trade policy adjustments.

The non-yielding Silver faces challenges as the recent US labor market figures for December, which is expected to support the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to maintain interest rates at current levels in January.

Moreover, reinforced hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed has sparked a rise in US Treasury yields. Rising yields boosted the US Dollar to recent highs, making Silver more expensive for buyers using foreign currencies and dampening Silver demand.

However, the Greenback corrects downwards following the disappointing US December Producer Price Index (PPI) data. Market participants will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Wednesday.

The demand for Silver could increase following China’s recent stimulus measures. As the world’s largest consumer of metals, any improvement in China’s economic conditions could significantly boost the industrial use of Silver.

People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng stated on Monday that “interest rate and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) tools will be utilized to maintain ample liquidity.” Gongsheng reaffirmed China’s plans to increase the fiscal deficit and emphasized that China will continue to be a driving force for the global economy.

Crude oil price faced negative pressure to break 78.25$ level and settle below it, and by taking a deeper look at the chart, we find that the price is forming head and shoulders’ pattern that its confirmation line located at 77.45$, which means that breaking this level will push the price to continue the decline and achieve negative targets that reach 75.60$.

Therefore, the bearish bias will be suggested for today, noting that breaching 78.25$ followed by 78.80$ levels will stop the negative scenario and lead the price to resume the main bullish track again.

The expected trading range for today is between 76.00$ support and 79.00$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Gold price meets sellers again above $2,675 heading into the US CPI release.
• Softer US PPI data add to the US Dollar and Treasury bond yields correction.
• Gold price stays hopeful amid the daily chart’s triangle breakout and bullish RSI.

Gold price returns to the red early Wednesday as buyers switch to the sidelines, awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release for further insights on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate path.

Gold price eyes US CPI inflation data for cues on Fed’s policy

Gold price reverses a part of the previous day’s rebound as sellers continue to lurk above $2,675. The US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields remain subdued so far this Wednesday, unable to lend support to the bright metal. Traders refrain from placing fresh bets on Gold price while cashing on the recent long positions heading into the US CPI test, especially after softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) readings.

Data published on Tuesday showed that the US annual PPI rose 3.3% in December, missing the expected 3.4% growth, while the core PPI inflation rose to 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) in the same period, compared to the market forecast of 3.8%. Monthly figures also disappointed. Despite the softer data, markets have fully priced in a rate cut pause at the Fed’s policy meeting later this month.

Therefore, the stakes are high for the US CPI report as it could alter the market’s pricing of the Fed rate cut outlook this year. Traders have scaled back their bets to only one Fed rate cut in 2025 from two predicted in December last year, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, following the strong December US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

The hawkish Fed bets are backed by the premise that US President-elect Donald Trump, set to begin his second term next week, will likely fuel inflation with his protectionist policies.

Economists expect the headline US CPI to rise 2.9% YoY in December after increasing 2.7% in November. The annual core CPI inflation is seen steady at 3.3% in the reported period. The monthly CPI inflation will likely remain at 0.3%, while the core figure is set to ease slightly to 0.2% in December.

A hotter-than-expected US CPI report could affirm expectations of just one Fed rate cut this year or prompt markets to price out any easing. This could trigger a fresh sell-off in the non-interest-bearing Gold price. Meanwhile, disappointing CPI figures could provide extra legs to the ongoing bullish momentum.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Nothing changes for Gold price from a short-term technical perspective, as buyers have entered a bullish consolidation phase following last week’s symmetrical triangle breakout.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to hold well above the midline, currently near 56, suggesting that Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade in the coming days.

Gold price needs to find a sustained break above the $2,675 barrier on the way to the $2,700 barrier to regain upside traction.

Daily candlestick closing above that level is critical to extending the uptrend toward the December 12 high of $2,726.

Alternatively, strong support is located at the January 13 low of $2,656, below which sellers must crack the $2,640 demand area.

That zone is the confluence of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 50-day SMA, 100-SMA and the triangle convergence, making it a powerful support.

If the downside momentum accelerates, the January 6 low of $2,615 could come to buyers’ rescue.