Updated: 26.12.2025 | 10:14 a.m. EST

U.S. natural gas is ending the week with a familiar winter push-and-pull: colder early‑January forecasts and strong LNG demand on one side, near‑record production and still‑healthy storage on the other.

In holiday-thinned trade on Friday morning, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas (January 2026) hovered around the mid‑$4.30s per MMBtu, extending a rebound that traders are tying to colder model runs and steady export pulls. Barchart showed NGF26 near $4.342/MMBtu mid‑morning, while market reporting also pegged the contract around $4.29/MMBtu earlier in the session. ^[1]

Below is what’s moving natural gas today (26.12.2025) across news, forecasts, and market analysis, including the next big catalysts traders are watching into year-end.

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Natural gas price today: where Henry Hub is trading and why volume matters

With many participants out for the holidays, liquidity is thinner than usual—and that can exaggerate moves in either direction.

• NYMEX Jan ’26 (NGF26) was quoted around $4.342/MMBtu in mid‑morning pricing (up on the session). ^[2]
• Separate market reporting described thin-volume trading and highlighted the contract near $4.29/MMBtu, also pointing to a weekly gain after a recent slide. ^[3]

This is also a notable moment on the calendar: Barchart lists expiration timing for NGF26 approaching at the end of December, which tends to accelerate position‑rolling and can add noise to day-to-day price action. ^[4]

Bottom line: Friday’s tape is being shaped not only by fundamentals, but also by holiday liquidity and the late‑month contract transition—a mix that often increases volatility.

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Weather forecast: the “colder shift” that bulls are betting on

The central driver in U.S. winter gas is still the same metric traders watch every day: heating demand.

Market reporting on Friday tied the bounce to forecasts pointing to colder conditions and higher demand into early January, particularly across the eastern half of the U.S. ^[5]

One way to translate that into market language is with Heating Degree Days (HDDs), a key proxy for heating demand:

• Forecasts cited in Friday market coverage showed HDDs rising from 377 to 398, while still below the normal level of 449—suggesting a trend toward more heating demand, but not yet a “deep-freeze” setup. ^[6]

This nuance matters. Natural gas can rally sharply on model runs that “turn colder,” but if temperatures remain below-normal vs. normal on the HDD scale, upside can be capped—especially with production running hot.

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Supply stays heavy: near-record Lower 48 production keeps pressure on the upside

If weather is the spark, production is the wet blanket.

Friday’s reporting cited Lower 48 output at a record-high pace in December, around 109.8 bcfd, topping November’s record. ^[7] That level of supply matters because it reduces how quickly cold weather can tighten the market—unless demand spikes hard.

EIA’s latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook (released December 9) also frames the same story for 2026: rising production is expected to help moderate prices after winter, with U.S. dry gas output forecast around 109 Bcf/d in 2026. ^[8]

Translation: Even if early January turns colder, the market’s immediate question becomes: Is it cold enough to overwhelm record supply and strong LNG pulls?

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LNG exports: feedgas demand remains a key bull argument

LNG is a structural pillar under U.S. natural gas demand—and it has been especially important this year.

Friday market reporting said gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants averaged about 18.4 bcfd so far this month, near record territory. ^[9]

There’s also a plant‑specific note that traders watch because it can swing feedgas quickly:

• Freeport LNG confirmed that all three liquefaction trains at its Texas facility had resumed operations after a temporary disruption. ^[10]

From a macro perspective, EIA’s December STEO points to LNG exports staying elevated longer-term, projecting U.S. LNG exports at 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026. ^[11]

And while U.S. LNG remains globally significant, Reuters data-driven analysis notes that Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. fell in 2025 versus 2024, highlighting how trade policy and shifting demand patterns can influence where U.S. cargoes ultimately land. ^[12]

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Storage and the next big catalyst: EIA’s delayed report is due Monday (Dec 29)

For U.S. natural gas, weekly storage is the scoreboard—and the schedule matters this week.

The release date change

EIA’s official schedule shows the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report was shifted to Monday, December 29, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET due to the Christmas holiday, with another holiday adjustment set for Wednesday, December 31 at 12:00 p.m. ET. ^[13]

Barchart also referenced the same holiday shift, underscoring how widely traders are focused on the Monday release. ^[14]

Where storage stands in the latest EIA weekly update

EIA’s Natural Gas Weekly Update (release date December 18, covering the week ending December 17) reported:

• Net withdrawals of 167 Bcf for the week ending December 12
• Working gas in storage: 3,579 Bcf
• Storage 1% above the five-year average and 2% below last year at that point ^[15]

EIA’s winter draw outlook (forecast)

In the December STEO, EIA outlined why its winter price forecast moved higher: it assumed December would be colder than previously modeled and projected heavier withdrawals—expecting 580 Bcf of inventory withdrawals in December, notably above the five‑year average for the month. ^[16]

Why this matters for Monday: If the next storage figure shows a draw that surprises to the upside (bigger withdrawal), it can validate the “colder + tight balance” narrative. A softer draw would strengthen the argument that record production and comfortable inventories can absorb winter demand.

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Rig count: drilling signals remain mixed, and it’s not just about “more rigs”

Supply isn’t only a function of the weather—it’s also a function of how aggressively producers drill.

The most recent Baker Hughes data (reported by Reuters) showed:

• Total U.S. rigs: 545
• Oil rigs: 409
• Gas rigs: 127 ^[17]

That headline number alone doesn’t guarantee higher output (productivity and associated gas matter), but it supports the broader theme seen across multiple sources: the U.S. system has been producing at exceptionally high levels—even as the market tries to price winter risk.

EIA’s STEO also noted that updated assumptions about gas-to-oil ratios (GORs), especially in the Permian, contributed to a higher production outlook. ^[18]

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Global gas snapshot: Asia LNG is cheap, Europe is watching Q1 flows

U.S. natural gas is increasingly tied to global gas pricing—because global prices help determine how “sticky” U.S. LNG demand will be.

Asia spot LNG (JKM-linked) and China demand

A Reuters global LNG market update (published Dec 24) put February-delivery LNG into Northeast Asia around $9.60/mmBtu, slightly higher on the week—but still reflecting a generally soft market, with prices down significantly year-to-date. ^[19]

That same reporting highlighted:

• Stronger buying interest in South Korea tied to colder weather
• Weaker spot buying in China, contributing to the broader softness ^[20]

Europe: storage drawdown and early Q1 buying interest

Europe remains the “balancing market” when LNG is abundant. An Investing.com market analysis (published Dec 25) cited Europe’s gas storage level around 66.1% as of Dec 24, below average and below last year. ^[21]

Meanwhile, the Reuters LNG market update noted that European gas prices ticked up in thin trade on cold-spell forecasts, and also described firm buying interest into early Q1 2026 in parts of Central and Eastern Europe, tied to concerns about pipeline flows and regional supply needs. ^[22]

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Geopolitics and supply: Russia’s LNG delays and the pipeline pivot to China

Two Russia-linked developments are shaping longer-term supply expectations:

1. Russia delays LNG expansion targets:
   Reuters reported that Russia has pushed back by several years its plan to reach 100 million tons per year of LNG output, citing the impact of Western sanctions. ^[23]
2. Pipeline gas to China hits record levels:
   Reuters also reported that Gazprom supplied 38.8 bcm of gas to China via Power of Siberia in 2025, exceeding its contractual target. ^[24]

These shifts don’t directly set Henry Hub on any given day, but they do influence global LNG supply/demand expectations—which can feed back into U.S. LNG economics and, ultimately, U.S. gas balances.

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The bigger-picture debate: is the LNG buildout running ahead of demand?

A widely read Reuters Breakingviews column published today adds a longer-horizon angle: as major producers plan aggressive LNG capacity growth into 2030, the rapid cost declines and fast deployment of renewables (plus grid storage) could undercut future LNG demand growth—raising the risk of an oversupply cycle later in the decade. ^[25]

That matters even for today’s market because long-dated gas pricing and LNG contracting influence investment decisions, forward curves, and producer behavior—all of which shape how tight (or loose) the market can become in future winters.

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What to watch next for natural gas prices

Here are the near-term catalysts most likely to move U.S. natural gas into year-end:

• EIA storage report (holiday schedule): Monday Dec 29, 12:00 p.m. ET. ^[26]
• Early-January weather model runs: Watch whether the “colder eastern half” forecast persists and whether HDDs trend closer to (or above) normal. ^[27]
• LNG feedgas stability: Any operational disruptions (or ramp-ups) at major export plants—especially after Freeport’s return—can shift balances quickly. ^[28]
• Production and pipeline constraints: With output near records, the market is sensitive to any freeze-offs, maintenance, or regional bottlenecks. ^[29]
• Global LNG pricing and Europe’s storage trajectory: Soft Asia pricing and Europe’s winter drawdown keep the Atlantic Basin tug-of-war alive. ^[30]

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Where forecasts stand right now

EIA’s December STEO provides the clearest “official” baseline:

• Henry Hub spot price forecast: around $4.30/MMBtu on average this winter (Nov–Mar), then moderating to about $4.00/MMBtu next year. ^[31]
• EIA also noted it raised the winter price forecast versus last month due to colder early-December assumptions and stronger space-heating demand. ^[32]

That forecast lines up with what Friday’s market is pricing in: winter risk still matters, but the ceiling is debated because supply is robust and the system entered winter with above-average inventories. ^[33]

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The takeaway (as of 10:14 a.m. EST, 26.12.2025)

Natural gas is trading like a winter market again—weather-led, headline-sensitive, and increasingly tied to LNG flows. The next test is whether the colder outlook translates into a storage draw strong enough to overcome the market’s most stubborn counterweight: record U.S. production. ^[34]

References

1. www.barchart.com, 2. www.barchart.com, 3. www.worldenergynews.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.worldenergynews.com, 7. www.worldenergynews.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.worldenergynews.com, 10. www.worldenergynews.com, 11. www.eia.gov, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.eia.gov, 14. www.barchart.com, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.eia.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.eia.gov, 19. www.brecorder.com, 20. www.brecorder.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.brecorder.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. ir.eia.gov, 27. www.worldenergynews.com, 28. www.worldenergynews.com, 29. www.worldenergynews.com, 30. www.brecorder.com, 31. www.eia.gov, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. www.eia.gov, 34. www.worldenergynews.com

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast gained attention after silver crossed the $75 mark for the first time. Gold also reached a new record. Platinum and palladium followed the same trend. Investors reacted to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and global uncertainty. These factors increased demand for precious metals across markets.

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast driven by rate cut expectations

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast remained supported due to expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $4,516.50 per ounce at 0933 GMT. Gold touched a record of $4,530.60 earlier. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 1 percent to $4,547.70.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said demand for gold and silver remains strong due to expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. He also said low liquidity is increasing volatility in precious metals markets.

Gold market outlook strengthens on policy trends

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects gold’s strongest yearly performance since 1979. Several factors supported this trend. These include Federal Reserve policy easing, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Markets expect two interest rate cuts next year. These expectations are based on signals of a more flexible Federal Reserve approach. Gold remains supported as it does not offer yield but benefits from lower rates.

Physical demand trends impact gold pricing

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects physical market activity. Gold discounts in India widened to the highest level in more than six months. In China, discounts narrowed compared to last week. Earlier, China discounts had reached a five-year high.

These changes indicate varied demand conditions across major consumer markets. Pricing remains sensitive to local demand and currency movement.

Silver price surge reshapes gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast highlights silver’s sharp rise. Spot silver rose 4 percent to $74.82 per ounce. It reached an all-time high of $75.14 earlier in the session. Silver prices have risen 158 percent so far this year.

The rise is linked to supply shortages, its classification as a U.S. critical mineral, and industrial demand. Silver continues to attract attention from investors seeking alternatives to gold.

Platinum and palladium join the rally

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also includes movement in platinum and palladium. Spot platinum rose 7.3 percent to $2,382.35 per ounce. It earlier reached a record high of $2,448.25. Palladium rose 8.3 percent to $1,823.76.

Both metals are used in automotive catalytic converters. Prices increased due to supply constraints, tariff uncertainty, and shifting investment interest. Platinum is up around 170 percent this year. Palladium is up more than 90 percent.

Policy changes influence metal markets

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects policy developments. Staunovo said platinum and palladium markets are smaller than the gold market. Limited investor activity can cause sharp price movement.

He also noted that the European Commission’s plan to ease the 2035 ban on combustion engines has supported prices. This policy change increased expectations for continued demand in automotive use.

Weekly performance signals continued strength

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast shows all precious metals heading for weekly gains. Platinum recorded its strongest weekly rise on record. Market participants continue to track interest rate signals and supply conditions.

Precious metals remain sensitive to global economic signals. Investor focus remains on monetary policy, industrial demand, and geopolitical developments.

FAQs

Q1: Why are gold and silver prices rising today?
Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast shows prices rising due to rate cut expectations, global uncertainty, supply shortages, and increased investment demand across precious metals markets.

Q2: What is the outlook for gold and silver prices?
Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast suggests prices may remain supported as long as rate cut expectations, central bank buying, and industrial demand continue.

No Overhead Resistance, Only Reversal Risk

With no true resistance, let’s face it, the only fear for the bulls is a sudden reversal to the downside with better-than-average volume. We could still get this today, but if it occurs, it will be driven by low volume, which will set up the next “buy the dip” opportunity.

The New Definition of a Dip in a Vertical Gold Market

As we move higher and more vertical, the definition of dip is going to change. Sticking with a 50% correction of a price swing, our “dip” level at current price levels is $4350.27. That’s nearly $200. Welcome to the “new norm”. During the old regime, we were lucky to see $200 over a few months, maybe a year. However, as we move higher the swings will get bigger, the corrections will be greater and it will become a big boys game and remember that gold isn’t going to “split” like a stock does.

Fundamentals Take a Back Seat but Still Supportive

Back to the fundamentals, the mixed trade in Treasury yields is having little impact on gold prices today. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is trading 4.12%, down 0.014.

We didn’t see much of an impact on yields from this week’s initial claims report, but the Commerce Department’s GDP report showed that the U.S. economy grew by 4.3% in the first quarter, which was the country’s fastest pace of expansion since 2023. This kind of growth is likely to keep inflation boosted, which will be supportive for gold prices.

It seems to me that the economy is getting comfortable with inflation and growth, which will keep gold underpinned and the “buy” the dip strategy intact.

Dollar Breakdown Setup Could Add Fuel to Gold’s Upside

Today’s weaker U.S. Dollar (DXY) is also providing support for gold. The greenback is sitting on support at 97.814. Up above, the 50-day moving average at 98.452 and the 200-day moving average at 100.209 are providing solid resistance and controlling the downtrend. We’re at a critical point for the dollar. Our charts indicate the possibility of a steep decline under 97.814 with 96.218 the first target. Gold could pop even higher on this move.

December 26, 2025 — Natural gas is closing out the week with a familiar end-of-year mood: thinner holiday trading, sharper day-to-day swings, and a market still trying to decide whether winter will be a slow burn or a sudden blaze.

In early Friday pricing, NYMEX natural gas futures were trading around $4.345 per MMBtu, up about 2.4% on the session, with an indicated day range roughly $4.224–$4.382. ^[1]

Across the Atlantic, Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF contract was holding near €28.095/MWh in the latest available quote shown by Investing.com (displayed as delayed data with a last date stamp of 24/12), underscoring how holiday calendars and liquidity can matter almost as much as weather models this week. ^[2]

Why natural gas is moving today

Even when price action looks “simple” (up day / down day), natural gas rarely is. Right now, the market is juggling four overlapping storylines:

1) Demand: winter heating loads vs. “milder” signals

One of the cleanest clues about near-term direction is whether heating demand is ramping fast enough to overwhelm supply. The latest American Gas Association (AGA) market indicators showed total U.S. demand (including exports) fell 11.5% week over week, though it remained 1.2% higher than the same week a year earlier—a mixed picture consistent with a winter that has teased cold but hasn’t delivered it everywhere at once. AGA also noted forecasts pointing to milder patterns (including warmer-than-normal conditions in parts of the country). ^[3]

That matters because winter doesn’t need to be “record cold” to move gas prices—just cold enough, in the right regions, for long enough, to tighten daily balances.

2) Inventories: strong withdrawals still needed to calm price volatility

Storage is the market’s shock absorber. When storage is comfortable, price spikes tend to fade; when storage gets tight, small surprises become big moves.

The last widely cited U.S. government storage snapshot available online this week showed working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf as of Friday, Dec. 12, 2025, with a 167 Bcf weekly draw. ^[4]

With the next set of late-December numbers approaching, traders are leaning hard on expectations. Industry reporting has flagged that EIA data for the week ended Dec. 26 is scheduled for release on Wednesday, Dec. 31—a timing quirk that can amplify short-term volatility as the market trades “ahead of the print.” ^[5]

3) U.S. hub pricing is still whippy—and that matters for LNG economics

Even before today’s move higher, the market has been living through fast rotations. In EIA’s most recent weekly market update (earlier in December), the agency described a sharp drop in the Henry Hub spot price over the prior week and noted that front-month futures also moved down during that span—illustrating how quickly sentiment can change when weather forecasts shift. ^[6]

Those swings don’t just affect traders. They feed directly into global LNG competitiveness because the U.S. export model is tightly linked to Henry Hub pricing.

4) Geopolitics and infrastructure risk: energy markets hate uncertainty

Early Friday, Reuters reported that a blaze at Russia’s Azov Sea port of Temryuk—sparked by what local officials described as a Ukrainian drone attack—was extinguished, with fuel reservoirs being cooled. Reuters also noted the port handles liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) among other products. ^[7]

While that incident is not a direct “natural gas supply outage” headline, it reinforces a broader reality for the entire gas-and-LNG complex: infrastructure risk tends to put a floor under risk premiums, especially when markets are already thin.

The biggest natural gas headlines on Dec. 26, 2025

Beyond price screens, today’s natural gas news flow is being shaped by a set of region-specific stories—each different, but all pointing to the same theme: gas markets are becoming more policy-driven and logistics-constrained.

Australia: gas reform and domestic reservation—ambition meets long contracts

In Australia, the conversation is no longer about whether the east coast gas market needs intervention, but how fast reforms can translate into real supply and pricing outcomes.

A prominent analysis published today highlighted hurdles facing Australia’s push to prioritize domestic supply—particularly the reality that large LNG export contracts extend well into the 2030s, which can delay how quickly reforms bite. The same reporting flagged challenges around bringing on new upstream supply (including debates over regions such as the Beetaloo) and the political complexity of streamlining regulations across jurisdictions. ^[8]

This follows the Australian government’s own Gas Market Review messaging earlier this week, which recommended significant reforms, including a prospective domestic gas reservation policy, improvements to how gas is bought and sold, and streamlined reporting/governance. ^[9]

For global gas watchers, Australia matters because it’s a heavyweight LNG exporter. Any structural change that meaningfully shifts domestic vs. export allocation can ripple into LNG spot availability—though, as today’s coverage emphasizes, contract reality can slow the transmission mechanism.

Russia-China pipeline gas: a reminder that trade flows keep shifting

Separate Reuters reporting carried into today’s news cycle said Gazprom supplied 38.8 bcm of gas to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline in 2025, exceeding the annual contractual target of 38 bcm. ^[10]

The strategic significance: incremental pipeline volumes to Asia can offset some pressures elsewhere in Russia’s gas system—while also reinforcing how Europe and Asia are increasingly distinct pricing and flow theaters in a post-2022 world.

Russia LNG: sanctions continue to reshape long-term supply expectations

Another Reuters item widely recirculating today said Russia has delayed its ambition of producing 100 million tons per year of LNG by several years, citing the effects of Western sanctions on projects and equipment. The report also referenced revised strategy forecasts of 90–105 million tons by 2030 and up to 130 million tons by 2036, alongside discussion of delays at major developments. ^[11]

For today’s spot pricing, that’s not an “immediate outage” story. But for medium-term LNG balance, it’s highly relevant: when expected supply growth shifts rightward on the calendar, future winter risk premia can reappear.

Vietnam: CNG buses and factories watch 2026 supply and pricing risk

In Vietnam, today’s gas story is less about international geopolitics and more about “will the fuel arrive, and at what price?”

Tuoi Tre News reported that PV GAS D said it would continue supplying natural gas to customers, after concerns circulated that supply for CNG production to a trading company could be halted from January 1, 2026—a disruption that businesses warned could impact hundreds of operations and up to 500 CNG buses in Ho Chi Minh City. The report also described industrial customer concerns about potentially having to shift to LNG at higher cost and noted PV GAS D’s comments about declining domestic reserves, priority for power generation when needed, and expanded import/logistics options to stabilize supply. ^[12]

This kind of local supply anxiety is an underappreciated driver of long-term gas demand: if end users lose confidence in price stability or continuity, they start planning fuel-switching—even when gas is technically available.

India: new LNG station adds to the downstream buildout story

India’s gas market continues to be defined by infrastructure buildout—especially at the distribution and transportation layer.

Indian Infrastructure reported today that THINK Gas commissioned an LNG station in Rapthadu, Andhra Pradesh, and described the company’s footprint across multiple states and districts under the “Think Gas” brand. ^[13]

In a global context, these smaller commissioning announcements matter because they are the slow, cumulative mechanism by which LNG import volumes translate into actual end-use demand.

What to watch next

As the calendar flips toward year-end, three near-term catalysts stand out:

• Storage data cadence and expectations: With EIA numbers for the week ended Dec. 26 expected on Dec. 31, the market may remain more reactive to forecast tweaks than usual. ^[14]
• Weather model convergence (or chaos): If forecasts snap colder across high-consumption regions, gas can reprice quickly; if “milder” guidance holds, rallies tend to struggle for follow-through. ^[15]
• Policy and supply headlines outside the U.S.: Australia’s domestic reservation debate, Russia’s LNG delays, and Asia’s evolving downstream demand all feed into LNG availability—and LNG availability increasingly feeds back into regional gas pricing. ^[16]

Natural gas is, as always, a market where physics (weather, molecules, pipelines) meets politics (policy, sanctions, domestic priorities). On December 26, that collision is visible everywhere—from Henry Hub screens to Vietnamese bus depots to Australia’s LNG contract math.

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.aga.org, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. www.naturalgasintel.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.theaustralian.com.au, 9. www.dcceew.gov.au, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. news.tuoitre.vn, 13. indianinfrastructure.com, 14. www.naturalgasintel.com, 15. www.aga.org, 16. www.dcceew.gov.au

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast gained attention after silver crossed the $75 mark for the first time. Gold also reached a new record. Platinum and palladium followed the same trend. Investors reacted to expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and global uncertainty. These factors increased demand for precious metals across markets.

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast driven by rate cut expectations

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast remained supported due to expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. Spot gold rose 0.8 percent to $4,516.50 per ounce at 0933 GMT. Gold touched a record of $4,530.60 earlier. U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 1 percent to $4,547.70.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said demand for gold and silver remains strong due to expectations of lower U.S. interest rates. He also said low liquidity is increasing volatility in precious metals markets.

Gold market outlook strengthens on policy trends

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects gold’s strongest yearly performance since 1979. Several factors supported this trend. These include Federal Reserve policy easing, central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar.

Markets expect two interest rate cuts next year. These expectations are based on signals of a more flexible Federal Reserve approach. Gold remains supported as it does not offer yield but benefits from lower rates.

Physical demand trends impact gold pricing

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects physical market activity. Gold discounts in India widened to the highest level in more than six months. In China, discounts narrowed compared to last week. Earlier, China discounts had reached a five-year high.

These changes indicate varied demand conditions across major consumer markets. Pricing remains sensitive to local demand and currency movement.

Silver price surge reshapes gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast highlights silver’s sharp rise. Spot silver rose 4 percent to $74.82 per ounce. It reached an all-time high of $75.14 earlier in the session. Silver prices have risen 158 percent so far this year.

The rise is linked to supply shortages, its classification as a U.S. critical mineral, and industrial demand. Silver continues to attract attention from investors seeking alternatives to gold.

Platinum and palladium join the rally

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also includes movement in platinum and palladium. Spot platinum rose 7.3 percent to $2,382.35 per ounce. It earlier reached a record high of $2,448.25. Palladium rose 8.3 percent to $1,823.76.

Both metals are used in automotive catalytic converters. Prices increased due to supply constraints, tariff uncertainty, and shifting investment interest. Platinum is up around 170 percent this year. Palladium is up more than 90 percent.

Policy changes influence metal markets

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast also reflects policy developments. Staunovo said platinum and palladium markets are smaller than the gold market. Limited investor activity can cause sharp price movement.He also noted that the European Commission’s plan to ease the 2035 ban on combustion engines has supported prices. This policy change increased expectations for continued demand in automotive use.

Weekly performance signals continued strength

Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast shows all precious metals heading for weekly gains. Platinum recorded its strongest weekly rise on record. Market participants continue to track interest rate signals and supply conditions.

Precious metals remain sensitive to global economic signals. Investor focus remains on monetary policy, industrial demand, and geopolitical developments.

FAQs

Q1: Why are gold and silver prices rising today?
Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast shows prices rising due to rate cut expectations, global uncertainty, supply shortages, and increased investment demand across precious metals markets.

Q2: What is the outlook for gold and silver prices?
Gold and silver price today, prediction and forecast suggests prices may remain supported as long as rate cut expectations, central bank buying, and industrial demand continue.

Short-Term Pullback Risk and Support Levels

In the short-term, however, a pullback to test prior resistance as support – the first pullback after the breakout – is a risk. A first, more significant upside target at 127.2.% extension of the prior pullback is at $4,516. That is essentially a match to the high for the week to date, especially given a mild bearish reaction that followed Wednesday’s high. The prior high of $4,381, along with the 10-day average, now at $4,360 and rising, presents a first more significant potential support zone. A bullish reversal ending a pullback higher than $4,381, would suggest sustained strong support.

Current Advance Could Be Early in Larger Leg Up

When considering prior upswings in the price of gold, the current eight-week advance may still be early in the current leg up that began from the October swing low, given gains seen since then. Out of the four prior new trend highs sustained since 2024, time ranges are indicated at 5 and 6 weeks, and then at 11 and 12 weeks. Keep in mind that the first week of a new high breakout has yet to complete. This leaves potential in time and price.

Momentum Strength and Next Upside Targets

In addition to the rising slope of the bull trend, strong bullish momentum is indicated by a successful second breakout through the top of a rising trend channel. This confirms strength in the current advance. At the same time, it shows the price becoming further extended. Nevertheless, the potential for a continuation of the trend with a higher rate of change is suggested by the pattern. The next upside target for gold is at the 161.8% projection of a rising ABCD pattern. Further up is a large confluence zone starting at $4,664 and up to $4,713.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

December 25, 2025 — Energy stocks are heading into 2026 with a rare mix of forces pulling in opposite directions: bearish oil-price forecasts tied to oversupply, winter-driven natural gas volatility, and fresh geopolitical and sanctions-related headlines that can swing sentiment fast—even during holiday-thinned trading.

On the commodity side, oil ended the latest session near the low-$60s (Brent) and high-$50s (WTI), with year-end commentary increasingly focused on a 2026 surplus narrative. ^[1] But on the headlines side, developments involving Venezuela, Russia, and European sanctions are keeping risk discussions alive—especially in LNG and shipping-linked names. ^[2]

Below is what matters most for investors tracking energy stocks—from integrated oil majors and E&Ps to pipelines, refiners, oilfield services, LNG exporters, and gas-heavy producers—based on news and analysis dated Dec. 25, 2025 and the latest major forecasts available as of today.

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Oil sets the baseline for energy stocks—and the baseline is weakening

Even with market activity muted around Christmas, oil’s “signal” for equity investors remains clear: prices are still struggling, and multiple forecasters expect the market to remain well supplied next year.

Recent pricing context:

• Brent crude was last around $61–$62 per barrel and WTI around $58 per barrel in the latest reported settlement window. ^[3]
• Regional equity markets tied closely to oil also reflected softer tone, with commentary pointing to oil’s weak 2025 performance and pressure on sentiment. ^[4]

For energy stocks, this matters because upstream cash flows (especially unhedged shale producers and international E&Ps) are still strongly linked to crude benchmarks. But the market is also showing that equities don’t always mirror barrels—and 2025 is becoming the textbook example.

Barron’s highlighted that despite a steep 2025 drop in WTI, energy stocks held up better than many expected, helped by shareholder returns and cost discipline among large producers. ^[5]

Takeaway: Oil is not screaming “boom,” but equity resilience is real—especially where dividends, buybacks, and diversified earnings streams soften the blow.

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The 2026 oil price forecast picture: EIA points lower, Wall Street clusters in the mid-$50s

The most-cited anchor forecast in U.S. markets remains the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast:

• Brent spot average ~ $55.08/bbl in 2026
• WTI spot average ~ $51.42/bbl in 2026
• A backdrop of rising global inventories, with inventory builds expected to exceed 2 million barrels/day in 2026 ^[6]

EIA also expects OPEC+ to undershoot targets (in effect tightening relative to headline quotas), forecasting OPEC+ output about 1.3 million b/d less than targeted production in 2026, alongside continued Chinese stock-building that can dampen near-term downside. ^[7]

On the bank side, Reuters reported Goldman Sachs projecting lower oil prices in 2026, with Brent averaging $56/bbl and WTI $52/bbl, unless major supply shocks or deeper OPEC cuts change the equation. ^[8]

What this means for energy stocks:
A mid-$50s Brent world doesn’t automatically crush energy equities—especially if producers maintain:

• low reinvestment rates,
• steady buybacks/dividends,
• and balance sheet restraint.

But it does raise the bar: companies must out-execute rather than rely on price tailwinds.

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Geopolitics isn’t “gone”—it’s just competing with oversupply

Dec. 25’s headlines underscored a key nuance: even if the oil market is structurally well supplied, political disruption risk still exists, and it tends to matter most at the margins—shipping, sanctions compliance, and regional supply chains.

Venezuela: blockade rhetoric raises “tail risk” talk

Russia compared a reported U.S.-ordered “quarantine” of Venezuelan waters to “piracy,” a reminder that even a small probability of disruption can influence short-dated pricing and sentiment in oil-sensitive names. ^[9]

Serbia’s NIS: sanctions show how quickly operational reality can change

Reuters reported Serbia backing talks involving Hungary’s MOL and Russian stakeholders over NIS, a sanctioned Serbian oil firm. The story highlighted that while OFAC reportedly allowed negotiations until March 24, the firm still lacked an operating license to buy and refine crude, contributing to a refinery shutdown dynamic. ^[10]

Equity implication: Refiners, regional distributors, and logistics-linked players can see outsized effects from sanctions mechanics—even when global benchmark prices are calm.

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LNG is the energy stocks “second act,” and Russia just signaled delays

If oil is the baseline, LNG is increasingly the growth (and geopolitics) story—especially for gas producers, exporters, and midstream names tied to liquefaction and pipelines.

On Dec. 25, Reuters reported Russia delaying its target of producing 100 million tons/year of LNG by “several years” due to sanctions, with revised strategy numbers pointing to 90–105 million tons by 2030 and up to 130 million tons by 2036. ^[11]

At the same time, gas flows to Asia remain central. Reuters reported Gazprom saying gas supplies to China would reach 38.8 bcm in 2025—about 1 bcm above contractual obligations—and are expected to rise to 40 bcm in 2026. ^[12]

Why this matters for energy stocks:

• LNG delays for one major supplier can reshape expectations for global LNG balances, shipping rates, and the negotiating power of alternative suppliers.
• Pipeline gas commitments (like Russia-to-China volumes) influence long-term demand expectations, which feeds into valuation narratives for LNG-linked projects elsewhere.

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Natural gas volatility: storage draws, winter demand, and an EIA forecast reset

While oil has been sliding, U.S. natural gas has been the more volatile energy tape—especially with winter weather and storage expectations driving sharp moves.

An Investing.com market note published today pointed to a forecast -158 Bcf storage withdrawal (week ending Dec. 19), which would push inventories to 3,420 Bcf, described as below both the prior year and five-year average benchmarks cited in the analysis. ^[13]

Meanwhile, the EIA’s STEO raised its winter gas view:

• Henry Hub forecast to average almost $4.30/MMBtu this winter (Nov–Mar), citing colder-than-expected December weather
• Henry Hub forecast around $4.01/MMBtu on average in 2026 ^[14]

And despite a lower rig count trend, Reuters reported Baker Hughes data showing U.S. energy firms added rigs in the week ending Dec. 23 (released early for the holiday), with oil rigs at 409 and total rigs at 545. ^[15]

Equity implication: Gas-heavy producers can outperform even in a weak-oil year when:

• winter demand tightens balances,
• LNG export growth supports structural demand,
• and supply discipline (or infrastructure constraints) amplifies price response.

But the risk cuts both ways—weather shifts can reverse pricing quickly.

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Refining and product markets: China keeps export quotas steady for 2026

For refiners and integrated majors, the downstream side can sometimes offset weaker crude—especially when product markets are tight.

On Dec. 25, Reuters reported China issued its first batch of 2026 refined fuel export quotas:

• 19 million tons for gasoline/diesel/jet fuel exports
• 8 million tons for low-sulfur marine fuel
  The report also noted China’s refined product exports in the first eleven months of 2025 at 52.65 million tons, down 3.2% year over year. ^[16]

Separately, EIA’s STEO flagged that refining margins have been influenced by constrained global refinery production and sanctions-related trade shifts, while still expecting supportive margin dynamics into 2026 compared to 2025 (with uncertainty). ^[17]

Why investors care:
China’s quota policy affects Asia’s product flows, which can ripple into:

• global diesel/gasoline cracks,
• refinery utilization decisions,
• and earnings power for refiners and integrated majors.

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So where do energy stocks fit in 2026? A practical sector map

Energy stocks rarely move as one group for long. Here’s how today’s news-and-forecast mix tends to sort the subsectors:

Integrated majors: “duration” plus buybacks

Majors often fare better in weak crude periods because they combine upstream earnings with refining/marketing and trading. The 2025 pattern of oil prices falling while large energy equities held up has been linked to cost discipline, buybacks, and dividend support in market commentary. ^[18]

Upstream E&Ps: quality and balance sheets matter more in a $50–$55 world

If EIA’s ~$51 WTI 2026 average holds, the winners are usually those with:

• lower breakevens,
• flexible capex,
• and hedging strategies that don’t cap upside excessively. ^[19]

Midstream and LNG infrastructure: volume narratives can beat price narratives

LNG delays in Russia and continued Asia demand signals keep infrastructure optionality valuable, even if commodity prices are soft. ^[20]

Refiners: watch product exports and policy

China’s steady quotas and EIA’s margin discussion reinforce that refiners can still have earnings power even when crude is weak—depending on product tightness and regional outages. ^[21]

Oilfield services: late-cycle sensitivity

Rig counts and upstream budget restraint can pressure pricing for drill-bit-exposed services, even if production stays high due to efficiency. ^[22]

Power and “energy-adjacent” beneficiaries: data centers push demand growth

EIA expects U.S. electricity generation growth to continue into 2026, driven in part by large loads like data centers, concentrated in regions such as ERCOT and PJM. ^[23]
That matters for gas demand, grid investment, and firms tied to power infrastructure.

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The 5 catalysts energy stock investors are watching next

1. Inventory reality vs. forecast narrative
   EIA’s projected inventory builds (and the market’s willingness to store barrels) will heavily influence price expectations. ^[24]
2. OPEC+ policy execution
   The difference between headline targets and realized output can tighten or loosen balances more than headlines suggest. ^[25]
3. Sanctions enforcement and shipping friction
   Venezuela and Russia-related headlines can create sharp, short-lived risk premiums—especially in thin liquidity. ^[26]
4. Natural gas storage and winter weather
   Storage withdrawals and shifting degree-day forecasts can reprice gas quickly, impacting gas-heavy equities. ^[27]
5. China’s product and crude flow management
   Export quotas and stockpiling behavior influence global refining and crude balances, affecting both upstream and downstream names. ^[28]

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Bottom line: Energy stocks are entering 2026 in “cash-flow mode,” not “commodity boom mode”

As of Dec. 25, 2025, the dominant setup for energy equities looks like this:

• Oil: bearish-to-neutral on forecasts (EIA ~$51 WTI / ~$55 Brent for 2026) ^[29]
• Gas: structurally supported by LNG growth but tactically dominated by winter volatility ^[30]
• Geopolitics: not pricing like 2022-era panic, but still capable of sudden shocks ^[31]
• Stocks: increasingly judged on capital discipline, dividends, buybacks, and resilience—rather than pure commodity beta ^[32]

For investors, that means 2026 is likely to reward selectivity: the companies that can defend margins and returns in a mid-cycle price environment may continue to outperform—even if the barrel itself stays under pressure.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.eia.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.eia.gov, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.eia.gov, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.barrons.com

December 25, 2025 — Silver prices are pausing near historic highs on Christmas Day, after a blistering year-end rally pushed spot silver into fresh record territory. With many major financial markets shut or running on holiday-thin liquidity, today’s price action is less about fresh positioning and more about consolidation — but the bigger story is that silver has entered what several analysts describe as “price discovery” after breaking multi-year resistance and posting one of its strongest years on record. ^[1]

Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands on 25.12.2025

Spot silver was around $71.9 per ounce on December 25, 2025, according to TradingEconomics, effectively flat on the day and just below the latest all-time highs logged this week. ^[2]

That “just below” matters: Reuters reported silver hit an all-time high near $72.70 before easing back toward $71.94 in a modest pullback described as profit-taking after a record run. ^[3]

Futures snapshots tell a similar holiday story. Investing.com listed silver futures around $71.875 with volume shown as 0—a reminder that Christmas conditions can freeze normal trading and make “today’s” levels look static until liquidity returns. ^[4]

Why silver is consolidating now — and why the rally happened in the first place

1) Rate-cut expectations are the core tailwind

The dominant macro driver behind precious metals’ year-end surge has been the market’s conviction that U.S. monetary policy will keep easing. Reuters noted the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, and traders were pricing two more cuts next year—a classic supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. ^[5]

Other Reuters reporting through the week echoed the same theme: softer labor and inflation signals bolstered the case for additional rate cuts, while analysts highlighted that silver has been “leading” gold at points during the rally. ^[6]

2) The U.S. dollar’s slump amplified the move

A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-priced commodities more attractive to non-U.S. buyers. Reuters described the dollar as having slumped significantly in 2025, helping to power the precious-metals surge. ^[7]

3) Geopolitical risk kept “safe-haven” demand alive

Silver is unusual because it straddles two roles: a precious metal with safe-haven appeal and a critical industrial input. Reuters coverage tied the precious-metals rally to rising geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainty, including developments linked to Venezuela. ^[8]

4) The real differentiator: a multi-year physical deficit and tightening inventories

Multiple analysts point to the same structural issue underneath the rally: silver has been running a deficit for years, and physical tightness has become harder to ignore as prices climb.

• Reuters quoted strategists describing a market that has been in deficit for five years, with rising industrial demand reinforcing the squeeze. ^[9]
• The Silver Institute (citing Metals Focus) estimated the 2025 deficit at about 95 million ounces, marking the fifth successive deficit, with a large cumulative shortfall across 2021–2025. ^[10]

In a market like silver — smaller than gold and increasingly demanded by industry — persistent deficits can create the kind of “air pocket” dynamics that turn rallies into breakouts.

Industrial demand is no longer a side story — it’s the main plot

Silver’s industrial profile is central to the bullish thesis because it links the metal to long-duration themes like electrification and data infrastructure.

ING emphasized that industrial demand accounts for more than half of total silver consumption, and while solar growth may slow after peak installation years in China, demand tailwinds remain from electrification, grid upgrades, and increased silver content in automotive components (including hybrids and EVs). ^[11]

IG’s 2026 outlook went further, arguing demand remains broad-based across solar, EVs, semiconductors, 5G, and AI-related power infrastructure, while also highlighting how hard substitution can be in performance-sensitive applications. ^[12]

Reuters also framed silver’s “perfect storm” as a blend of investment demand and the industrial pull from AI data centers, solar, and EVs, with momentum buying layered on top. ^[13]

The “flow” problem: China, London, and tariff fears

Holiday sessions hide volatility — but they don’t remove the deeper plumbing issues that can whip silver around when markets reopen.

ING flagged a set of conditions that help explain why silver can spike or gap more aggressively than gold:

• Chinese exchange-linked stockpiles falling toward multi-year lows
• Record Chinese silver exports (ING cited October exports above 660 tonnes)
• Elevated lease rates in London (around 6%, per ING), even after large inflows
• A lingering risk that silver could be caught up in tariff policy, especially after being added to a U.S. “critical minerals” context that could raise the odds of import restrictions ^[14]

Reuters reporting earlier in the month also linked tariff concerns to physical dislocations and liquidity stress in the London spot market, reinforcing the idea that silver’s rally is not purely “paper-driven.” ^[15]

2026 silver price forecasts: what major analysts are actually projecting

Forecasts for silver in 2026 are wide — and that dispersion is itself a signal. Silver is historically volatile, and analysts are splitting into two camps: “bank-base-case” pricing and “breakout-extension” pricing.

Bank/strategy forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s (with upside cases)

• Reuters reported Macquarie strategists expect silver to average about $57 per ounce in 2026, citing supply-demand deficits and strong import demand dynamics. ^[16]
• IG’s 2026 outlook said the average of major banks places silver in the $56–$65 range for 2026, describing that as the conservative view. ^[17]

This is a critical takeaway for readers: even relatively “measured” forecasts still imply silver stays far above the levels that defined most of the pre-breakout decade.

Bullish strategist targets converge around $75 (and sometimes higher)

Several market professionals quoted in Reuters pointed to $75 as a psychologically and technically important milestone:

• Reuters cited Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) pointing to $75/oz as a next upside objective into year-end, while noting technicals remained bullish. ^[18]
• In another Reuters report, a WisdomTree strategist said silver could gain to close to $75/oz by the end of next year (i.e., end of 2026). ^[19]
• Reuters also quoted commentary warning that year-end profit-taking could still trigger pullbacks even in a bullish trend. ^[20]

“Technical extension” scenarios: $72–$88 becomes the map if the breakout holds

IG outlined a more technical pathway: once silver cleared the long-term ceiling and held above it, the next measured-move extensions in their framework pointed to $72 and $88. ^[21]

One nuance here is timing: silver is already flirting with the low-$70s zone now. That means the “$72” area is no longer a distant projection — it’s becoming a near-term battleground where traders will judge whether the breakout is consolidating or exhausting.

Gold-silver ratio: the “relative value” signal traders keep watching

Silver’s outperformance has also shown up in the gold-silver ratio, a long-followed measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.

Reuters reported the gold-silver ratio narrowed to around 64 from about 105 in April, reflecting how aggressively silver has caught up during the year-end sprint. ^[22]

IG noted that long-run historical averages are often discussed in the 40–60 zone, and argued that further compression would imply additional relative strength for silver — even if gold prices merely hold steady. ^[23]

Technical and short-term analysis for Dec. 25: key levels traders are citing

Because today is holiday-thinned, most technical notes are anchored to the last “normal” session’s close and framed as setups for when markets reopen.

• FXEmpire described silver holding near $71.85, after a pullback from just under $73.80, with an important support zone near $70.20 (and a deeper risk point around the high-$60s). It also noted momentum cooling — more consistent with consolidation than an immediate trend break. ^[24]
• FXLeaders similarly framed silver near $71.85, calling attention to support levels around $70.75 and $69.55 in holiday conditions where volume is thin. ^[25]

From a news-reader standpoint, the technical message is straightforward: the uptrend remains intact above the low-$70s/high-$60s supports, but the market is extended enough that sharp pullbacks are possible — especially once liquidity returns and year-end portfolio rebalancing resumes.

A quick note on India’s silver market (MCX): bullish breakout language dominates

India is a key demand center for physical silver, and local-market commentary has turned increasingly bullish.

The Times of India highlighted analyst commentary pointing to a breakout structure in MCX Silver, with support near 215,000 and an upside target around 240,000 (pricing in rupees terms on the exchange). ^[26]

Even for global readers who don’t trade MCX, this matters because India’s import demand and retail participation can influence physical flows — a theme Reuters has also referenced in discussing drivers of silver’s record highs. ^[27]

What could move silver next: 5 catalysts to watch after the holiday

1. Fed repricing: If markets reduce expectations for 2026 cuts, silver can drop fast. If cuts look more likely, the rally can re-accelerate. ^[28]
2. Dollar direction: A renewed dollar decline tends to support metals; a sharp dollar rebound can cap upside. ^[29]
3. Geopolitics and trade policy: Venezuela-linked headlines and broader tariff uncertainty have already been cited as tailwinds for safe-haven demand. ^[30]
4. Physical tightness signals: Watch inventories, lease rates, and cross-region flows (London–U.S.–China). ING’s work suggests this “plumbing” can matter as much as macro. ^[31]
5. Industrial demand prints: Solar, grid, EV, and AI data-center buildouts remain key demand narratives — but any evidence of a sharper slowdown could hit sentiment given silver’s industrial exposure. ^[32]

Bottom line: Silver’s 2025 breakout is real — but the ride into 2026 is likely to stay wild

As of December 25, 2025, silver is consolidating near $72/oz, after printing fresh records and capping a year defined by falling-rate expectations, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risk, and a widely cited multi-year supply deficit. ^[33]

For 2026, mainstream forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s on average (with upside cases), while several strategists continue to flag $75 as a plausible milestone if macro tailwinds and physical tightness persist. ^[34]

The caution is embedded in the same story: silver’s market structure and dual-demand profile make it prone to steep corrections, especially when positioning gets crowded — meaning the next leg up, if it comes, may not be a straight line. ^[35]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

References

1. tradingeconomics.com, 2. tradingeconomics.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. silverinstitute.org, 11. think.ing.com, 12. www.ig.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. think.ing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.ig.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ig.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.ig.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.fxleaders.com, 26. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. think.ing.com, 32. think.ing.com, 33. tradingeconomics.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com

December 25, 2025 — Gold is entering the Christmas break near historic highs after a dramatic late‑year surge that pushed the metal through the psychological $4,500 per ounce level and up to fresh records earlier this week. In holiday-thinned conditions, spot gold has been hovering around the mid‑$4,400s to ~$4,480, following an intraday record near $4,525 set during Christmas Eve trading. ^[1]

The bigger story, however, is not just “gold price today” — it’s why the rally has been so relentless into year-end, and what major banks and market strategists think happens next in 2026, with forecasts clustering from the low‑$4,000s to $5,000+ depending on interest rates, the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, and the pace of central‑bank and ETF buying. ^[2]

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Gold price today: where XAU/USD stands on Dec. 25

Gold trading is typically quieter around Christmas, and this year is no exception: liquidity has been thin and the market is pausing after a powerful run. Spot gold was last reported around $4,479 in the final active session before Christmas Day, after touching a record near $4,525 earlier in the day; U.S. gold futures were also around $4,481 in that session. ^[3]

Several market updates published on Dec. 25 describe gold as “steady” or “stabilizing” after the breakout above $4,500, with traders starting to lock in gains as the year closes. ^[4]

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What’s driving the gold rally into year-end?

Gold’s late‑2025 rally is being powered by a rare alignment of macro and structural forces — some of which are cyclical (rates, the dollar), and some of which look longer‑lasting (central bank diversification, ETF flows, and a broadened investor base).

1) Rate-cut expectations and the “lower yields” tailwind

Gold tends to benefit when markets expect easier monetary policy, because bullion doesn’t pay interest — so falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding it. Reuters reporting this week highlighted that markets have been pricing in additional U.S. rate cuts in 2026, supporting gold’s appeal. ^[5]

2) A weaker U.S. dollar

A softer dollar can mechanically support gold (priced in dollars) by making it cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers. Reuters has noted the dollar’s notable decline in 2025 and the view among many investors that weakness could extend into 2026 — one reason precious metals demand has remained strong into the holiday period. ^[6]

3) Geopolitics and “safe-haven” demand

Safe‑haven buying has been repeatedly cited as a catalyst in the latest leg higher, including tensions linked to the Middle East, uncertainty around Ukraine‑Russia dynamics, and the recent focus on U.S. actions tied to Venezuelan tankers. ^[7]

4) Policy uncertainty and tariffs

Beyond day‑to‑day headlines, broader policy uncertainty has become part of the gold narrative. Financial Times’ year‑in‑review framing points to tariff turmoil and market instability as major themes of 2025, with gold a standout beneficiary amid a “gold rush” driven by central banks and retail investors. ^[8]

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The structural engine: central banks and ETF inflows

If rate expectations and geopolitics explain the timing of the latest surge, the foundation of this bull market is increasingly described as structural.

Central banks: still buying, still diversifying

Reuters reporting on the year-end rally cited Metals Focus estimates that central banks are on track to buy about 850 tonnes of gold in 2025 (down from 2024 but still sizable), and analysts expect elevated official-sector demand to remain a key pillar into 2026. ^[9]

In a separate Reuters deep dive on “what fuels the market,” the same structural theme comes through: gold’s surge has been linked to robust central‑bank buying and diversification trends alongside rate-cut bets and safe-haven flows. ^[10]

ETFs: 2025 became an inflow year again

Gold ETFs have also reasserted themselves as a major demand channel:

• Reuters reported physically backed gold ETFs are on course for their largest inflow since 2020, attracting $82 billion (about 749 tonnes) so far this year. ^[11]
• World Gold Council data for November 2025 showed global physically backed gold ETFs logged their sixth consecutive monthly inflow, adding $5.2 billion, with total holdings rising to 3,932 tonnes and assets under management reaching $530 billion. ^[12]

That ETF persistence matters for price: it signals institutional and retail participation beyond short-term “fear trades,” reinforcing the idea that gold is increasingly treated as a strategic allocation rather than a tactical hedge. ^[13]

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Christmas-week price action: records first, consolidation next

The week’s price behavior has looked like a classic “breakout then breathe” pattern.

• Reuters described gold hitting fresh records near $4,525 before easing modestly, with analysts pointing to profit-taking and holiday-thinned trading as reasons for the pause. ^[14]
• Investing.com’s analysis of Christmas Eve trading described spot gold moving in a wide band roughly between $4,471 and $4,526, with the push above $4,500 followed by some fading into late trade. ^[15]
• A Dec. 25 market note also emphasized that some traders are beginning to take profits after gold’s ~70% surge in 2025, while still framing the broader trend as supported by central‑bank buying and expectations of lower borrowing costs. ^[16]

One widely cited technical takeaway: even after the pullback, gold remains in a powerful uptrend, and some market commentary continues to flag the potential for another leg higher once liquidity returns after the holiday lull. ^[17]

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Regional snapshot: gold prices in India on Dec. 25

Gold’s global surge is showing up in local markets too. In India, Business Standard reported sharp moves in domestic bullion prices on Dec. 25, with 24K gold (10 grams) quoted around ₹1,38,940 and 22K gold (10 grams) around ₹1,27,330, alongside a jump in silver prices. ^[18]

This divergence between soaring investment demand and pressured jewelry demand is also consistent with Metals Focus commentary cited by Reuters: high prices have weighed on jewelry consumption in India even as bar-and-coin investment has held up better. ^[19]

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Gold price forecast for 2026: where top banks and strategists see XAU/USD next

The most important question for investors heading into 2026 is whether gold’s extraordinary 2025 performance sets up a correction — or whether the rally is simply shifting into a slower, higher‑plateau phase.

Here’s what major published forecasts and analyst notes are saying right now:

Bullish base case: $4,900 (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs sees gold rising to $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, driven by structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from U.S. Fed rate cuts — with potential upside if private-investor diversification broadens. ^[20]

“Highest conviction” bull view: $5,055 average by late 2026 (J.P. Morgan)

J.P. Morgan has been among the most prominent bulls. Reuters reported the bank forecasting gold could average $5,055/oz by Q4 2026, with assumptions that investor demand and central bank buying average around 566 tonnes per quarter in 2026. The same Reuters report also reiterated J.P. Morgan’s longer-term target of $6,000/oz by 2028. ^[21]

A separate Reuters analysis on 2026 forecasting also grouped J.P. Morgan with Bank of America and Metals Focus in seeing $5,000 as reachable in 2026, even if the pace of gains slows compared with 2025. ^[22]

A wider forecast range: $4,225 to $5,000+ depending on macro

Reuters’ Dec. 17 survey-style reporting captured how dispersed the outlook is:

• Macquarie: average around $4,225 in 2026 (more conservative, assuming improving growth and relatively high real rates). ^[23]
• MKS PAMP: expects $4,500 average in 2026, describing gold as increasingly a multi‑year strategic portfolio asset. ^[24]
• Morgan Stanley: forecast $4,500 by mid‑2026 (per Reuters reporting). ^[25]
• Metals Focus: forecast $5,000 by end‑2026 (per Reuters reporting). ^[26]

Meanwhile, some media summaries published this week note that several banks broadly cluster expectations for 2026 trading in the $4,500–$4,700 zone, with upside scenarios toward $5,000 if macro uncertainty remains elevated. ^[27]

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Key risks that could cool the rally in 2026

Even gold bulls are increasingly careful about one thing: after a 60–70% year, volatility cuts both ways.

The main downside risks highlighted across current reporting include:

• A rebound in real yields / less Fed easing than markets expect, which would raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. ^[28]
• A stronger U.S. dollar, which can mechanically pressure USD gold prices and reduce overseas buying power. ^[29]
• Forced selling during broader risk-off events, where investors sell liquid “winners” (including gold) to cover losses elsewhere — a dynamic Reuters flagged as a risk when gold and equities rise together. ^[30]
• Soft jewelry demand, particularly in price-sensitive markets, which can remove a traditional source of physical demand even as investment demand remains strong. ^[31]

In short: the structural story may be supportive, but the path is unlikely to be smooth.

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What to watch next: the early-2026 catalysts for gold price direction

Once full liquidity returns after the holidays, the gold market is likely to refocus on a clear set of catalysts:

1. Fed policy and U.S. data — inflation and labor prints that move rate-cut expectations (and by extension, real yields). ^[32]
2. U.S. dollar trend — whether 2025’s dollar weakness extends into 2026 as many investors expect. ^[33]
3. Central bank buying pace — whether diversification remains persistent at levels seen in recent years. ^[34]
4. ETF flows — whether 2025’s heavy inflows continue, especially across Asia and North America. ^[35]
5. Geopolitical and trade-policy headlines — particularly anything that intensifies safe-haven demand or disrupts confidence in fiscal/monetary frameworks. ^[36]

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Bottom line: gold ends 2025 in control — but 2026 becomes a “range vs. breakout” year

As of Dec. 25, 2025, the gold price narrative is best described as strong trend, cautious tape: bulls still have the structural wind at their back (central banks + ETFs + diversification), but the market is also digesting an extraordinary year and heading into the new one with a wider forecast dispersion than usual — from “cool-off” scenarios in the low‑$4,000s to “new regime” calls at $5,000+. ^[37]

If you want, I can rewrite this in a more “wire-style” Google News format (shorter paragraphs, more attribution in-line, and a tighter nut graf) while keeping the same facts and SEO focus.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.fxleaders.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.gold.org, 13. www.gold.org, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.fxleaders.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.business-standard.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businessinsider.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.gold.org, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com

Updated: December 25, 2025

Natural gas markets are spending Christmas Day in holiday mode—with many European venues closed and U.S. trading thinned out—yet the underlying story is anything but quiet: weather-driven demand risk is rising into late December, LNG flows remain a decisive swing factor, and storage levels on both sides of the Atlantic are back in focus.

The cleanest “real-time” read on Europe came in the final pre-holiday session: by 10:21 GMT, the benchmark Dutch TTF front-month was €28.20/MWh (about $9.75/mmBtu), modestly higher as traders priced the possibility that a colder spell could lift heating demand. ^[1]

At the same time, the calendar matters. ICE Endex (one of Europe’s key trading venues for energy derivatives) lists December 25 and 26, 2025 as closed for Christmas, which helps explain why price discovery is concentrated in the sessions immediately before the holiday break. ^[2]

In the U.S., the most-watched benchmark—NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures—saw volatile, thin pre-holiday trading in the last session before Christmas. The front-month January contract ended down 16.6 cents at $4.242/mmBtu, after touching $4.593 earlier in the session (a near two-week high). ^[3]

And in global LNG, the key price signal from Asia ticked higher: spot LNG for February delivery into Northeast Asia was assessed around $9.60/mmBtu, up slightly on the week, with South Korea emerging as a notable marginal buyer amid colder forecasts. ^[4]

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Natural gas prices at 10:21 GMT: the holiday snapshot

Here’s what the market was signaling around the 10:21 GMT reference point on the last liquid pre-holiday session:

• Europe (TTF front-month):€28.20/MWh at 10:21 GMT, inching higher with colder-weather risk in focus. ^[5]
• United States (Henry Hub, front-month futures):$4.242/mmBtu in thin pre-holiday trading, after a spike to $4.593 earlier in the same session. ^[6]
• Asia (spot LNG, Feb Northeast Asia):$9.60/mmBtu, higher week-on-week, but still down about 34% since the start of 2025 amid generally soft regional demand. ^[7]

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What’s moving natural gas today: weather risk meets a holiday liquidity vacuum

Holiday sessions often exaggerate price moves—both up and down—because fewer participants are active, and small order flow can push benchmarks more than usual. That dynamic showed up clearly in the U.S., where market participants pointed to lower holiday liquidity as a contributor to volatility. ^[8]

1) Weather: colder forecasts are the headline catalyst

Two regions matter most for near-term price direction:

Europe: The late-December outlook was described as “bullish” by an LSEG analyst in the pre-holiday European session, with expectations for higher consumption in Germany and France due to a “steep drop in temperature” over the Christmas period. ^[9]

United States: Meteorologists cited in the U.S. market report expected a slight nationwide cooling trend through January 8, with heating degree days rising from 358 to 377 day-on-day (still below the “normal” level of 447, but moving in the direction that tends to support demand). ^[10]

2) LNG: exports keep tightening the U.S. balance

One reason U.S. natural gas has stayed sensitive to any incremental cold signal is that LNG exports are pulling a large, steady volume of gas out of the domestic system.

• Average feedgas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants were reported at 18.4 Bcf/d so far this month, above the 18.2 Bcf/d monthly record referenced for November. ^[11]

That matters because, in winter, the U.S. market’s “balancing lever” is often storage. If exports are strong and a cold stretch hits, prices can gap quickly—especially around contract expiry and holiday schedules.

3) Storage: Europe is drawing down earlier than many would like

Europe entered winter with solid inventories, but the drawdown pace is now the story.

• Gas Infrastructure Europe’s public dashboard showed the EU at 66.1% full as of 06:00 CEST on Dec. 24, 2025 (about 755.22 TWh stored), reflecting continued withdrawals. ^[12]
• Reuters-based reporting in the same pre-holiday price note cited EU storage at 66.49% full. (Differences like this typically reflect timing/cutoff conventions.) ^[13]

The takeaway isn’t the second decimal place—it’s that storage is no longer “comfortably high,” which raises sensitivity to cold snaps, unplanned outages, and pipeline/LNG flow surprises.

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Europe: why €28/MWh still matters even with markets closed

Even though ICE Endex lists Dec. 25–26 as closed (meaning fewer fresh reference trades), the last traded levels still anchor commercial decisions—especially in LNG.

• ICE Endex’s published schedule shows Dec. 25 and Dec. 26, 2025: closed, and Dec. 24: early settlement window (with designated settlement periods listed). ^[14]

In practice, this “price anchor” effect often shifts attention to:

• Weather model updates
• Norwegian supply reliability
• LNG send-out and shipping flexibility
• Storage withdrawal pace

Pre-holiday reporting also emphasized that strong LNG supply and Norwegian pipeline flows were expected to counter some of the cold-driven demand risk. ^[15]

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United States: Henry Hub near $4.25, with expiration dynamics in play

U.S. natural gas is also wrestling with a calendar issue: the January contract is near expiration, and liquidity can migrate toward the next prompt month.

In the final pre-holiday session:

• The January contract traded down to $4.242/mmBtu (down 3.8% on the day), after reaching $4.593 earlier. ^[16]
• Trading volume was reported as 19,541 lots, underscoring thin conditions. ^[17]

LSEG’s demand projections cited in the same report pointed to a step-up in total Lower-48 demand (including exports) from 127.9 Bcf/d this week to 136.4 Bcf/d over the next two weeks. ^[18]

Separately, Texas—one of the most critical producing regions—has been emphasizing operational scrutiny. The Texas Railroad Commission said it is stepping up inspections of natural gas storage facilities, noting that Texas storage volumes were at a record level as of late November. ^[19]

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Global LNG: Asia firms slightly, Europe stays the “sink,” and Russia remains the wild card

Asia: South Korea appears as a marginal buyer

Asia spot LNG prices edged up as colder weather forecasts boosted near-term interest in South Korea:

• February Northeast Asia spot LNG: $9.60/mmBtu, up from $9.50 the week prior. ^[20]
• One LNG pricing executive cited expectations for South Korean temperatures to fall to two-year lows on Dec. 26, and said five cargoes had been diverted from China to South Korea in recent weeks. ^[21]

Even with that uptick, the broader theme remains: spot prices in Asia are far below early-2025 levels, reflecting weaker underlying buying. ^[22]

Europe vs. Asia: who “wins” flexible Atlantic cargoes?

The same Reuters-based LNG report highlighted a key setup: with Asia and North Africa showing limited appetite for spot volumes in early Q1, incremental LNG supply is expected to flow disproportionately into Europe. ^[23]

That’s one reason European gas can stay relatively stable—even with colder weather—as long as LNG continues to show up on time and Norway runs smoothly.

Russia: delays, sanctions, and rerouted cargoes keep risk premium alive

Two Russia-related themes stood out in today’s reporting:

1) Russia’s LNG expansion timeline is slipping. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has delayed its 100 million tons/year LNG output target by several years due to Western sanctions. Updated strategy figures referenced output of 90–105 million tons by 2030 and 110–130 million tons by 2036, while Russia’s current LNG share was described around 8% with an ambition of 20% by 2030–2035. ^[24]

2) Trade flows are being watched closely. Reuters separately reported that a tanker named Kunpeng loaded LNG from Russia’s Portovaya facility—under U.S. sanctions—and that it had previously delivered a Portovaya cargo to China’s Beihai terminal earlier this month, based on ship-tracking data. ^[25]

Add in deal-making: Malaysia’s Petronas signed a 10-year LNG supply deal with China’s CNOOC for 1 million metric tons per year, reinforcing Asia’s long-term contracting trend even as spot markets remain subdued. ^[26]

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Forecasts and analysis published on Dec. 25: what the models and analysts are saying

1) U.S. storage expectations: the next EIA print is delayed

If you’re looking for the official U.S. storage update, note the calendar shift:

• The EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report schedule shows the next release set for Monday, Dec. 29, 2025, reflecting the Christmas holiday period. ^[27]

That means the market will lean more heavily on private estimates and weather-driven demand models in the interim.

2) Analyst estimate: a deeper draw as winter demand bites

A Dec. 25 analysis on Investing.com projected a -158 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 19, which would put inventories at 3,420 Bcf, described as 125 Bcf below 2024 and 70 Bcf under the five-year average. ^[28]

Treat this as an estimate, not official data—but it matches the broader narrative: storage is tightening, and the market is more weather-sensitive.

3) Short-term price setup: technical analysts flag $4.25 as a key level

A Dec. 25 technical forecast from FXEmpire framed natural gas near $4.25 as the “Wednesday closing price” reference into the holiday shutdown, highlighting nearby resistance levels and a market still sensitive to headlines and liquidity. ^[29]

Technical views aren’t fundamentals—but in thin holiday sessions, technical levels can influence how traders place orders when markets reopen.

4) 2026 outlook: EIA sees “around $4” wholesale pricing, with exports doing heavy lifting

Looking beyond the holidays, the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook narrative points to Henry Hub averaging around $4/mmBtu next year, with production growth limited and LNG exports rising. ^[30]

That aligns with mainstream consumer-facing summaries that expect U.S. wholesale natural gas prices to be meaningfully higher in 2026 than 2025. ^[31]

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What to watch next after Christmas

As liquidity returns (and European markets reopen after Dec. 26 closures), these are the near-term catalysts most likely to move “natural gas price today” headlines:

1. European cold spell verification
   If temperatures drop as forecast, withdrawals could accelerate and tighten the prompt market—especially if LNG arrivals slip. ^[32]
2. U.S. weather through early January
   Forecasts through Jan. 8 were already pointing cooler; further model shifts can move Henry Hub quickly, particularly around contract expiration dynamics. ^[33]
3. LNG flow continuity
   With U.S. feedgas running near record levels, any unplanned export outage—or a further ramp—can meaningfully change the U.S. storage trajectory. ^[34]
4. The delayed EIA storage report (Dec. 29)
   The first official storage print after Christmas is a key “reset” moment for positioning. ^[35]
5. Russia-related supply and sanctions headlines
   Russia’s delayed LNG expansion plans and watchful monitoring of cargo movements keep geopolitics in the pricing mix. ^[36]

References

1. www.worldenergynews.com, 2. www.ice.com, 3. www.bairdmaritime.com, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.bairdmaritime.com, 7. www.brecorder.com, 8. www.bairdmaritime.com, 9. www.worldenergynews.com, 10. www.bairdmaritime.com, 11. www.bairdmaritime.com, 12. www.gie.eu, 13. www.worldenergynews.com, 14. www.ice.com, 15. www.worldenergynews.com, 16. www.bairdmaritime.com, 17. www.bairdmaritime.com, 18. www.bairdmaritime.com, 19. www.mrt.com, 20. www.brecorder.com, 21. www.brecorder.com, 22. www.brecorder.com, 23. www.brecorder.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. ir.eia.gov, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.fxempire.com, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. www.worldenergynews.com, 33. www.bairdmaritime.com, 34. www.bairdmaritime.com, 35. ir.eia.gov, 36. www.reuters.com