NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE — Dec. 24, 2025 — U.S. natural gas futures were softer in holiday-thinned Christmas Eve trading, giving back part of Tuesday’s sharp rebound as traders reassessed near-term weather forecasts, the durability of record LNG-driven demand, and the winter storage trajectory.

By late morning, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures were trading around $4.29 per MMBtu, down from the prior close near $4.41, with prices moving inside a session range roughly spanning the low-$4.20s to the mid-$4.50s. ^[1]

That pullback comes after a dramatic “risk-on” reset earlier in the week. On Tuesday, front-month U.S. gas futures surged roughly 4% amid record-high feedgas flows to U.S. LNG export plants and expectations for higher demand in the next two weeks. ^[2]

Natural gas price action today: a post-rally breather in holiday trade

The story of natural gas on December 24, 2025 is less about a single headline and more about the market’s tug-of-war:

• Bullish forces: LNG exports are running exceptionally strong, and the market is still digesting a winter that began with a meaningful cold push.
• Bearish forces: Weather models have been prone to whiplash; even small shifts warmer can quickly reduce heating demand expectations—especially when trading liquidity is thin around the holidays.

The result: volatile, sometimes abrupt swings that can look outsized relative to the fundamental change on any one update—particularly in a shortened, lightly staffed session.

The big driver: weather forecasts are still the steering wheel

Weather remains the primary near-term catalyst because it changes residential and commercial heating demand faster than production can respond.

Recent industry tracking shows demand has already eased from early-December highs, with heating degree days (HDDs) down week-over-week in the latest readings—one reason futures have struggled to hold the most aggressive winter premium. ^[3]

At the same time, the U.S. government’s baseline forecast still leans firm for the winter as a whole. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its winter view and now expects the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.30/MMBtu this winter (Nov–Mar), citing colder-than-expected December conditions. ^[4]

The EIA also notes it is assuming December HDDs are 8% above the 10-year average, a meaningful demand tailwind—though it also expects milder-than-normal weather in early 2026 to help cool prices after winter. ^[5]

LNG exports: the strongest pillar under U.S. prices, but not without limits

The modern U.S. gas market increasingly trades like a hybrid of domestic utility fuel and global seaborne commodity—and LNG is the bridge.

On Tuesday, Reuters-reported market coverage highlighted record flows to LNG export plants, with average feedgas flows to major facilities rising to about 18.5 Bcf/d so far this month, above the prior monthly record. ^[6]

EIA’s weekly market update underscores just how large the LNG channel has become: in the week ending Dec. 17, 33 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports with a combined capacity of about 126 Bcf. ^[7]

The risk traders are watching: shrinking LNG margins

Even with strong flows today, the market is increasingly focused on whether U.S. LNG economics remain compelling if domestic gas prices rise while global benchmark prices soften.

Reuters analysis earlier this month described a margin squeeze: Henry Hub prices have risen while European and Asian prices eased, narrowing the spread that supports U.S. LNG profitability. ^[8]

For now, LNG demand is still acting as a stabilizer for U.S. prices. But this margin discussion is important because it frames the key “next-level” risk: if the spread compresses far enough, exports become the release valve.

Storage: withdrawals are above normal, and the winter balance matters

Storage is the market’s scoreboard in winter. The latest EIA weekly update (covering the report week ending Dec. 17) showed:

• Net withdrawals of 167 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 12, well above the five-year average withdrawal for that week.
• Working gas inventories of 3,579 Bcf, slightly above the five-year average, but below year-ago levels. ^[9]

The EIA’s broader winter outlook expects December to be a heavy withdrawal month. It forecasts 580 Bcf withdrawn during December, about 28% above the five-year average for the month, and projects end-of-winter storage near 2,000 Bcf (about 9% above the five-year average). ^[10]

This is why even modest shifts in temperature guidance can move prices sharply: storage draws compound quickly during cold spells, and futures reprice the end-of-winter level in real time.

Production and rigs: supply is strong, but winter can still bite

Record or near-record production has been the market’s counterweight to winter weather risk.

One reason the supply story still looks resilient: U.S. drillers have not meaningfully pulled back activity in a way that would suggest imminent supply stress. In Baker Hughes’ holiday-adjusted rig count update, U.S. firms held gas rigs around 127, with total oil-and-gas rigs rising slightly week-over-week (though still down year-over-year). ^[11]

The EIA also expects U.S. output to remain high into next year: it projects dry natural gas production averaging about 109 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 2025 levels. ^[12]

That said, winter is the season when production can still surprise to the downside due to freeze-offs and operational interruptions—so the market continues to price some risk premium.

Europe today: TTF eases as colder risks moderate

Across the Atlantic, European gas pricing remains sensitive to weather, storage levels, and LNG arrivals—especially with the region still navigating the post-Russian pipeline era.

On Dec. 24, Europe’s benchmark Dutch TTF front-month eased to around €27.36/MWh (about $9.47/MMBtu) by mid-morning London time, as forecasts suggested a potentially quicker end to a cold spell and supply stayed stable. ^[13]

While Europe’s price level remains far above the ultra-cheap periods of the pre-2022 era, the market has become more two-sided: warm forecasts can soften prices quickly, while cold snaps still have the power to ignite rapid rallies.

The structural backdrop: policy shifts continue

Europe’s long-run gas architecture is also being reshaped by regulation. Reuters reported the European Parliament approved the EU plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, pushing the bloc toward longer-term reliance on LNG and alternative pipeline sources. ^[14]

Asia today: spot LNG edges up with South Korea demand in focus

In Asia, spot LNG prices have been supported by incremental winter buying, particularly where cold weather looks imminent.

A financial-market report citing Argus noted that South Korean buying interest emerged with temperatures expected to fall to two-year lows on Dec. 26, and that cargoes have been diverted from China to South Korea in recent weeks. ^[15]

This matters for U.S. gas because Asia is a major sink for Atlantic Basin LNG when economics work—supporting feedgas demand back in the United States.

Today’s LNG headline: Petronas signs new supply deal with China’s CNOOC

One of the most consequential “quiet” forces in gas markets is the steady accumulation of long-term LNG contracts—the contractual plumbing that underwrites new liquefaction capacity.

On Dec. 24, Reuters reported Malaysia’s Petronas signed an agreement to supply 1 million metric tons per annum of LNG to CNOOC Gas and Power in Singapore, deepening an existing relationship. ^[16]

Deals like this don’t usually move Henry Hub futures minute-by-minute, but they reinforce the macro reality: LNG remains a structural growth channel, even as short-term weather dominates the daily tape.

Natural gas forecast and outlook: what the market is pricing into early 2026

Putting today’s cross-currents together, the clearest near-term framework looks like this:

Base case: choppy but supported

• Prices stay volatile into year-end due to thin holiday liquidity and frequent weather model revisions.
• Strong LNG flows help put a floor under dips, unless global spreads compress sharply.

Bull case: sustained cold plus big draws

• If colder-than-normal weather persists longer than expected, storage withdrawals can accelerate—consistent with the EIA’s view that December is already running cold relative to assumptions. ^[17]

Bear case: a warm turn plus strong production

• If forecasts shift meaningfully warmer into early January, heating demand falls fast.
• With production strong and rigs steady, the market can quickly shed winter risk premium. ^[18]

The 2026 anchor

EIA expects Henry Hub to moderate after winter with milder early-2026 weather and rising production, averaging around $4.00/MMBtu next year in its baseline outlook. ^[19]

What to watch next

Natural gas traders and energy consumers are likely to keep a close eye on:

1. Weather model trends (especially late-December and early-January HDD forecasts). ^[20]
2. Weekly storage dynamics and whether withdrawals remain above normal. ^[21]
3. LNG feedgas flows and any terminal disruptions, given LNG’s outsized role in demand. ^[22]
4. Global LNG contract news that signals longer-term demand growth (e.g., Petronas–CNOOC). ^[23]
5. Policy and supply-chain developments that change global balances, such as Europe’s Russian gas phase-out timetable and other LNG-related regulation. ^[24]

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If you want, I can tailor this same Dec. 24, 2025 update into (1) a shorter Google Discover-style “tight read” (400–600 words) or (2) a longer newsroom feature (1,800–2,200 words) while keeping it fully source-grounded and SEO-focused.

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.bairdmaritime.com, 3. www.aga.org, 4. www.eia.gov, 5. www.eia.gov, 6. www.bairdmaritime.com, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.eia.gov, 10. www.eia.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.eia.gov, 13. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.lse.co.uk, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.aga.org, 21. www.eia.gov, 22. www.eia.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com

Gold, silver, and copper are rallying together in a rare, synchronized surge that is reshaping global commodity markets. As of December 24, 2025, gold trades near $4,494 per ounce, silver around $72.11 per ounce, and copper at $5.51 per pound. All three are posting their strongest annual gains in decades. Gold is up more than 70% year to date. Silver has surged over 140%, its best performance since the early 1980s. Copper has climbed roughly 36%, marking its biggest annual rise since 2009. This rally is not driven by speculation alone. It reflects deep structural forces reshaping the global economy. Investors are rushing toward metals as inflation risks linger, interest rates trend lower, and geopolitical uncertainty remains high. At the same time, copper and silver are benefiting from a massive industrial demand wave tied to artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid expansion.

The U.S. dollar is weakening at its fastest pace in years, boosting commodity prices worldwide. Central banks are aggressively accumulating gold to reduce reliance on dollar reserves. Supply disruptions, tariffs, and underinvestment in mining have tightened markets just as demand accelerates. Together, these forces explain why precious and industrial metals are rising in unison — and why the rally may not be over yet.

Why gold prices are hitting record highs in 2025

Gold’s rally is rooted in macroeconomic stress and policy shifts. The metal briefly touched $4,525 per ounce, a fresh all-time high, before consolidating near current levels. Monthly gains are nearing 9%, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in 2026.

Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no yield. At the same time, inflation concerns and rising government debt are fueling what traders call the “debasement trade.” A weaker U.S. Dollar has made gold cheaper for overseas buyers, amplifying global demand.

Central banks are another powerful force. Many have accelerated gold purchases to diversify reserves and hedge against financial instability. Analysts now project gold could dip modestly toward $4,350 near quarter-end before climbing toward $4,600 over the next 12 months, supported by sustained official-sector buying.

Why silver is outperforming gold this year

Silver’s surge is even more dramatic. Prices briefly topped $72.70 per ounce, and despite minor pullbacks, the metal remains up over 140% in 2025. Unlike gold, silver plays a dual role as both a safe-haven asset and a critical industrial material.

Demand from solar panel manufacturing, electric vehicles, and data centers has exploded. Each new energy or AI project consumes silver permanently, tightening supply. Monthly gains near 40% reflect how quickly inventories are being absorbed. With silver now classified as a strategic and critical mineral in several countries, analysts see prices holding above $70 into 2026, with forecasts pushing toward the mid-$70s.

Why copper demand is exploding from EVs, AI, and infrastructure

Copper’s rally tells the story of the energy transition. Prices are approaching $12,000 per metric ton, driven by soaring demand from electric vehicles, artificial intelligence data centers, and power grid expansion. A single electric vehicle can use up to four times more copper than a traditional gasoline car.

According to Goldman Sachs, grid expansion and power infrastructure could account for more than 60% of copper demand growth by 2030. Supply, however, is struggling to keep pace. Mining disruptions in Chile and Peru have constrained output, while new projects face long approval timelines.

Adding to the pressure, U.S. trade policy has reshaped the market. A 50% tariff on imported copper products triggered stockpiling and hoarding. J.P. Morgan expects tight supply conditions to persist well into 2026.

What futures markets are signaling about metals prices next

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts broadly expect gold, silver, and copper prices to stay elevated, with volatility driven by interest rates, global growth, and supply constraints. Forecasts suggest the metals rally is shifting from a momentum-driven surge to a structurally supported cycle. Gold price forecast for 2026
Gold is expected to remain well above historical averages. Most bank and commodities desk models see gold trading in a $4,300–$4,900 per ounce range through 2026. Central bank buying remains the anchor. If the Federal Reserve begins rate cuts, real yields could fall further, supporting upside risk toward the upper end of forecasts. Downside risk appears limited unless inflation cools sharply and the dollar strengthens materially.

Silver price forecast for 2026
Silver forecasts are more aggressive due to tight supply and industrial demand. Analysts project an average range of $68–$78 per ounce, with volatility likely. Solar installations, EV production, and data center expansion continue to absorb supply faster than mining output grows. Silver’s dual role as an investment metal and industrial input keeps it highly sensitive to both rate policy and global manufacturing trends.

Copper price forecast for 2026
Copper outlooks remain bullish but uneven. Consensus estimates place copper between $5.40 and $6.10 per pound, with some upside scenarios tied to grid expansion and AI infrastructure. Electric vehicles, renewable energy, and transmission upgrades drive demand, while mine supply growth remains constrained. Trade barriers and inventory rebuilding could keep prices near cycle highs.

Gold is expected to stabilize at historically high levels. Silver may remain the most volatile, with sharp rallies on demand shocks. Copper prices are likely to stay supported by long-term electrification trends. Together, forecasts suggest metals will remain a key inflation and growth hedge throughout 2026, rather than reverting to pre-2024 norms.

Copper price activated with the main indicators again, surpassing the barrier at $5.5000, announcing its readiness to achieve extra gains on a near-term basis, therefore, we will keep our bullish expectations, reminding you that the extra target near $5.6300 and $5.7400 level.

 

Note that the price stability below the current barrier might force it to form mixed trading, and there is a chance of testing the support at $5.1500.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3900 and $5.6300

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 

Coffee price surrendered to the negative pressures, forcing it to suffer several losses towards 339.20, facing a strong support base as appears in the above image.

 

The price stability above this support and stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might provide a chance to recover several losses by its rally towards 359.80, then wait for facing the moving average 55 near 368.50.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 338.00 and 359.80

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 

Updated: 23.12.2025 — 5:04

Natural gas markets are closing in on year-end with a familiar mix of winter weather risk, record LNG pull, and stubbornly strong production—but on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, the bullish forces briefly overwhelmed the bears.

In the U.S., Henry Hub front-month futures surged into the mid-$4s per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after trading swung from an early single-digit gain to a double-digit move later in the day. Reuters pricing showed the front month around $4.41/mmBtu on the session, up sharply on the day with an intraday range roughly $3.94–$4.45. ^[1]

Across the Atlantic, benchmark Dutch TTF gas eased below €28/MWh in thin pre-holiday trading, with Norway and LNG supply cushioning the market even as temperatures are expected to turn colder in parts of Europe. ^[2]

Below is a detailed roundup of the key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping natural gas on 23.12.2025—and the catalysts traders are watching next.

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U.S. natural gas: a volatile rally fueled by LNG demand and shifting weather signals

Morning move: futures rise on record LNG feedgas and higher near-term demand estimates

Early Tuesday, U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher as flows to LNG export plants hit fresh highs and forecasters upgraded the next two weeks’ demand outlook.

Reuters reporting cited record-level feedgas flows and an improved demand projection from LSEG. In morning trade, the January NYMEX contract was up around 4% and trading near $4.105/mmBtu, supported by expectations that gas demand (including exports) could rise from roughly 127.9 bcfd this week to about 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks. ^[3]

That demand uplift matters because the U.S. gas market is increasingly balanced at the margin by export pull, not just domestic heating loads.

Later momentum: the rally accelerates as LNG sets a floor and “cold risk” returns

Later in the session, market commentary pointed to a classic year-end dynamic: thinner liquidity, more stop-driven moves, and fast-changing weather runs.

A separate market analysis described a late-day surge, with January futures trading around $4.370/mmBtu and up more than 10% at one point, as record LNG demand collided with colder revisions in parts of the U.S. outlook. ^[4]

While forecasts still include warmer-than-normal periods (a bearish signal for heating demand), traders are increasingly sensitive to any model shift that reintroduces cold into the highly populated U.S. East—because that’s where residential and commercial demand can spike quickly.

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Record LNG feedgas is the headline driver—and it’s not just “strong,” it’s structural

The most important U.S. gas storyline on December 23 is simple: LNG export demand remains near full throttle.

Reuters-linked reporting said LNG feedgas was on track to reach about 18.6 bcfd on Tuesday (a record area), supported by higher intake at major facilities including Cameron, Freeport, and Calcasieu Pass. ^[5]

This isn’t a short-term quirk. The EIA’s most recent weekly market update highlighted just how large U.S. LNG logistics have become, noting that 33 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports in a single week (Dec. 11–17) with a combined carrying capacity of 126 Bcf. ^[6]

Why it matters for price: When LNG feedgas stays elevated, it reduces the market’s ability to “relax” even during mild weather breaks—because export terminals keep pulling molecules regardless of whether Chicago or New York is having a warm spell.

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Production is also at (or near) record highs—keeping the rally on a tight leash

Even as prices spiked Tuesday, the supply side continues to impose a ceiling on sustained upside.

Reuters-cited figures put Lower 48 output around 111.1 bcfd in December—an all-time high area—illustrating that U.S. producers and infrastructure are still delivering large volumes into the system. ^[7]

That supply strength is showing up in storage resilience as well:

• The EIA reported working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf (week ending Dec. 12), after net withdrawals of 167 Bcf. Inventories were slightly above the five-year average and slightly below last year at that point. ^[8]

This combination—very strong exports and very strong production—is why the market can rally sharply on weather risk, but also why those rallies can struggle to hold if the cold fails to materialize.

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Europe: TTF slips below €28/MWh as Norway and LNG offset cold-weather demand risk

European gas prices stayed relatively contained on December 23, even as the market monitored colder conditions.

A Reuters-sourced European market report showed:

• Dutch TTF front-month down to about €27.95/MWh (around $9.61/mmBtu) by mid-morning,
• UK day-ahead slightly lower,
• trading described as narrow-range and thin ahead of the Christmas holiday. ^[9]

Europe’s storage: still comfortable, but trending lower into winter

The same report pegged EU storage at 67.24% full, a key benchmark because Europe’s winter price sensitivity rises sharply when inventories fall. ^[10]

An Engie market note cited in the report suggested fundamentals were currently bearish, but warned that risk factors—particularly on the U.S. supply side—could still flip sentiment if prices keep falling. ^[11]

And with Europe entering winter with lower storage than recent years, an S&P Global LNG analyst quoted in the report said buyers may be compelled to increase LNG procurement in January and February. ^[12]

Norway supply: a key stabilizer for Europe

Norway remains Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, and on December 23 Reuters reported that Norwegian oil and gas output in November beat official forecasts, with gas output slightly down year-on-year but above forecast. ^[13]

Steady Norwegian flows—plus LNG arrivals—help explain why TTF can remain subdued even with winter weather risk in the background.

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Middle East supply shock: Iraq says Iranian gas supplies halted

One of the most consequential geopolitical gas headlines on December 23 came from Iraq.

Reuters reported that Iraq’s electricity ministry said gas supplies from Iran have been halted, and the disruption knocked an estimated 4,000–4,500 megawatts out of Iraq’s power system. ^[14]

While this is primarily a regional power-generation story (and not a direct “global price setter” like U.S. LNG or TTF), it underscores how quickly gas-linked power systems can become fragile when pipeline supplies are interrupted—especially in peak-demand periods.

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Global LNG demand: Myanmar’s return adds a new (small but notable) source of import demand

In Asia, Reuters reported Myanmar is expected to resume LNG imports next year after receiving a partial cargo last month—ending a more than four-year hiatus. ^[15]

Key details from the report:

• Myanmar is projected to import about 0.4 million tons of LNG in 2026, according to Kpler,
• tied to restarted or upgraded LNG-to-power projects totaling around 500 MW. ^[16]

In pure volume terms, Myanmar is not big enough to move global LNG pricing alone—but it’s another sign that LNG-to-power can re-emerge quickly when domestic gas declines or power shortages bite.

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Policy and industry signals: rigs, regulation, and power-market shifts

U.S. drilling: rig counts edge up, but the bigger signal is the longer-term price incentive

Reuters reported that U.S. drillers added rigs for the first time in three weeks, with the total rig count rising to 545, while gas rigs held at 127. ^[17]

The same report highlighted that the EIA expects natural gas production to grow, helped by a sharp rebound in spot prices during 2025—an incentive that can translate into more drilling activity if producers believe higher prices will stick. ^[18]

Australia: new gas reservation scheme targets domestic supply from 2027

In another major policy development dated December 23, reporting in Australia said the government’s new gas reservation scheme will require LNG exporters from 2027 to reserve 15–25% of output for domestic use (roughly 200–350 petajoules annually), with analysts flagging uneven impacts across exporters. ^[19]

This is a longer-dated policy lever, but markets pay attention because restrictions on export flexibility can reshape contract behavior, upstream investment decisions, and eventually regional LNG availability.

Offshore wind pause: potential knock-on effect for U.S. gas-fired power

Reuters-linked reporting also noted that the Trump administration suspended leases for several large offshore wind projects under construction off the U.S. East Coast—an action that could increase reliance on gas-fired generation if renewable build-out slows. ^[20]

For natural gas, the key takeaway is not “one project,” but the direction of travel: power-sector demand can shift materially if policy changes alter the generation mix.

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Forecast and outlook: what traders are watching next

Here are the market indicators most likely to set direction after the December 23 move:

1) Weather models and “late-January cold risk”

• The near-term forecast still includes warmer-than-normal stretches, but traders are reacting to any incremental shift colder in major demand centers—especially the U.S. East. ^[21]

2) LNG feedgas: can flows stay near 18.6 bcfd?

• With LNG feedgas at record levels, even small disruptions (maintenance, commissioning changes, pipeline constraints) can move price expectations quickly. ^[22]

3) Storage trajectory

• U.S. storage remains close to the historical norm (EIA: 3,579 Bcf as of Dec. 12), which keeps the market sensitive to whether upcoming withdrawals land above or below seasonal averages. ^[23]

4) Europe’s storage drawdown pace

• European storage around 67% is not “alarm level,” but the speed of winter drawdowns—combined with Norway flows—will shape TTF volatility into January and February. ^[24]

5) 2026 LNG supply wave and pricing pressure

Looking beyond the immediate weather/LNG headlines, longer-horizon analysis still points to a potential loosening of global LNG balances in 2026 as new supply ramps—an anchor that can temper longer-dated price expectations even when near-term volatility spikes. ^[25]

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Bottom line

Natural gas on 23.12.2025 was a textbook example of a market being pulled in opposite directions:

• Bullish: record LNG feedgas and periodic cold-weather risk
• Bearish: record U.S. production and storage still near normal
• Europe: capped by steady Norway/LNG supply despite winter demand
• Geopolitics: localized disruptions (Iraq/Iran) reinforcing energy security concerns without immediately repricing global benchmarks

For now, the market’s center of gravity remains LNG: as long as U.S. export pull stays near record levels, even mild weather can have a harder time pushing prices down for long—but with production this strong, sustaining rallies still requires the weather to cooperate. ^[26]

References

1. jp.reuters.com, 2. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 3. www.bairdmaritime.com, 4. www.fxempire.com, 5. www.bairdmaritime.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.bairdmaritime.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 10. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 11. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 12. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.theaustralian.com.au, 20. www.bairdmaritime.com, 21. www.bairdmaritime.com, 22. www.bairdmaritime.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.bairdmaritime.com

Silver is ending December 23, 2025 with a bang. The white metal has pushed through the long-watched $70-per-ounce threshold for the first time and extended the rally into fresh record territory above $71, powered by a potent mix of industrial demand, investment buying, tighter inventories, a softer U.S. dollar, and rate-cut expectations. ^[1]

Around the late New York session—closest available spot snapshots ahead of this 5:03 PM ET update—major pricing feeds showed spot silver near $71.4–$71.5/oz, up more than 3% on the day, after trading a wide intraday range. ^[2]

Silver price today: the latest spot levels and today’s trading range

In the latest visible spot snapshots on Tuesday:

• Investing.com showed XAG/USD at about $71.5025, up +3.53%, with a day’s range of $68.8445–$71.5815. ^[3]
• Kitco listed spot silver around $71.42 bid / $71.54 ask, up +3.53%, with an intraday low near $68.79 and high near $71.63. ^[4]

Those late-session levels followed a dramatic intraday progression that traders will remember: silver was already printing records in early trade, then breached $70, and later accelerated to new highs as the day unfolded. ^[5]

What happened on Dec 23: silver crosses $70 and rewrites the record book

Silver’s surge wasn’t a single spike—it was a day-long storyline:

• Early headline move: Reuters reported spot silver hitting a fresh record around $69.59/oz early Tuesday. ^[6]
• The psychological break: By mid-day in Europe, Reuters said silver had scaled $70, trading around $70.06 after hitting about $70.18—a major “round number” breakout that tends to draw momentum flows. ^[7]
• Late-day extension: In the U.S. session, Reuters later reported silver around $71.22, after touching a new record near $71.49. ^[8]

In other words, the market didn’t just test $70—it cleared it, then built above it, which is often what separates a “headline pop” from a more durable trend.

Why silver is rallying: the big drivers behind today’s move

Tuesday’s rally is being explained by a rare alignment of bullish inputs—some structural, some macro, and some driven by year-end positioning.

1) Supply deficit meets rising industrial demand

Reuters quoted metals strategist Peter Grant (Zaner Metals) pointing to a market that has been in deficit for five years, with increasing industrial demand adding to the bid. ^[9]

That matters because silver is not only a precious metal—it’s also a critical industrial input used across electronics and energy-related applications. When investors decide they want “hard-asset protection” at the same time industry needs supply, the squeeze can become self-reinforcing.

2) Investment demand and tightening inventories

Reuters also highlighted strong industrial and investment demand alongside tightening inventories as key supports. ^[10]

This is the kind of backdrop that can turn dips into quick rebounds: if the market believes available supply is shrinking, sellers become more cautious, and buyers become more aggressive on pullbacks.

3) Rate-cut expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar

Precious metals often respond to shifts in real yields and the U.S. dollar. Reuters noted that expectations of further U.S. rate cuts were helping propel the complex, and that a weaker dollar makes dollar-priced metals more attractive for overseas buyers. ^[11]

4) Geopolitical tensions add a “safe-haven” layer

Silver doesn’t always trade like pure “risk-off” gold—but in big macro moments, it can pick up a safety bid too. Reuters linked today’s move to simmering geopolitical tensions and highlighted fresh U.S.–Venezuela friction as part of the broader risk backdrop feeding safe-haven demand. ^[12]

Silver price forecast: what analysts are saying now

With silver printing record highs, the conversation has quickly shifted from “can it break $70?” to “how far can this run—and how violent could the pullbacks be?”

The $75 target enters the mainstream

Reuters reported that silver’s next target is $75/oz, according to Peter Grant—while cautioning that year-end profit-taking could trigger a pullback. ^[13]

That “$75” level is now emerging as a widely repeated upside reference point because it sits above today’s breakout zone and gives the rally a clear, simple target for momentum traders.

Overbought signals are flashing—but dips may be bought

FXStreet’s technical view on Dec 23 acknowledged that silver remains in a strong uptrend, but flagged overbought RSI conditions as a reason bulls may pause before adding fresh risk. Importantly, FXStreet added that any meaningful corrective drop could still be seen as a buying opportunity, with downside potentially limited. ^[14]

Holiday liquidity and profit-taking risk is real

FXEmpire struck a more cautious near-term tone, noting silver hit a record around $70.68 before pulling back on profit-taking into the holiday period. FXEmpire also tied some pressure to strong U.S. GDP data (4.3%) and rising Treasury yields, which can reduce appetite for non-yielding metals if markets rethink how quickly the Fed will cut. ^[15]

Taken together, the day’s forecasts paint a fairly classic late-year setup:

• Trend is up and momentum is strong
• But liquidity is thinner
• So pullbacks can be sharp—even inside a bull move

Key silver levels to watch after the $70 breakout

Even for readers who don’t trade, a few technical “zones” matter because they often influence headlines, investor psychology, and the pace of moves:

• $70.00: The psychological breakout level now flipped into a major reference point. Reuters explicitly framed today as silver hitting $70 “for the first time.” ^[16]
• $71.49–$71.63 area: Today’s record-zone, with Reuters noting a peak near $71.49 and major spot feeds showing session highs in the low $71.6s. ^[17]
• $75.00: The next “headline target,” now being cited by analysts. ^[18]

If silver remains above $70 on follow-through days, the narrative stays “breakout and hold.” If it slips back below, the narrative can quickly turn into “failed breakout,” even if the bigger trend remains bullish.

The bigger picture: silver’s 2025 surge and what it could mean for 2026

Reuters noted silver is up dramatically year-to-date—147% in 2025 in its late-day report—underscoring just how powerful this move has been. ^[19]

That scale of annual gain is why forecasts have become more polarized:

• Bulls see structural tightness (deficits + industrial pull) and believe silver can keep climbing as macro conditions ease. ^[20]
• Skeptics point to crowded positioning and the tendency for silver to experience fast corrections, especially when macro data pushes yields higher or when year-end positioning flips. ^[21]

What to watch next: the catalysts that could move silver after today

With Christmas-week liquidity in play, a handful of inputs could have an outsized impact on silver pricing in the next sessions:

• U.S. dollar direction (a weaker dollar has been supportive). ^[22]
• Treasury yields and rate-cut expectations (especially if data surprises shift the Fed path). ^[23]
• Geopolitical headlines that feed safe-haven flows. ^[24]
• Whether silver holds above $70 after the first breakout day. ^[25]

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Bottom line (Dec 23, 2025): Silver’s breakout above $70 has turned into a full-throttle record run above $71, with analysts now openly discussing $75—but multiple research notes warn that thin holiday trading and profit-taking could still produce sudden pullbacks even inside a bullish trend. ^[26]

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.kitco.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.kitco.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fxstreet.com, 15. www.fxempire.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.fxempire.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com

Approaching Key Resistance

Today’s bull breakout further confirms strength of the counter-trend rally. It looks poised to test resistance near the 50-day average, now at $59.13. Until proven otherwise, some degree of resistance can be anticipated. Since the area near the 50-day average reversed the bull reversal from the October swing low, it was confirmed several times as a dynamic resistance area, most recently the December lower swing high at $60.56.

Since the average identifies an area of possible resistance, the 12-day high at $59.22 can be included in the price zone as well, along with a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $59.37. Together, these indicators show a price zone from around $59.13 to $59.37 where the current bounce could stop and reverse – or breakthrough.

Reversal Confirmation Levels

A sustained recapture of the $60.56 lower swing high from early December would be needed to show a reversal of the trend on the daily chart. However, a one-week bullish reversal triggered this week from a bullish hammer candle pattern. The weekly breakout will confirm if this week ends above last week’s high of $57.82. Nevertheless, the reversal of the lower swing high is needed to satisfy the internal downtrend that began from the June spike high at $78.44.

Broader Downtrend Context

The series of lower swing highs from that peak suggests at least another pullback from resistance near the top of the short-term decline bounded by a dashed falling trendline. Despite recent signs of strength, demand will need to remain strong enough to advance further and then break out through a resistance zone and remain in a bullish technical position. That would be difficult without another dip, even if to generate a higher swing low rather than another test of this month’s lows.

Outlook

Crude oil’s counter-trend rally has gained traction with the 20-day reclaim and weekly reversal signal, but the $59.13–$59.37 confluence looms as the decisive test. Clearance and hold above the 50-day average shifts the daily structure to short-term bullish; rejection there favors another leg lower within the larger downtrend from June.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.