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5 12, 2025

Copper price won’t stay above $11,000 for long, says Goldman

By |2025-12-05T05:58:41+02:00December 5, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


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Defying market optimism, Goldman Sachs Group sought to curb enthusiasm over copper’s record-breaking rally, saying the metal’s breakout above $11,000 a tonne is unlikely to last as global supplies remain adequate.

In a note to clients this week, Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham argued that copper’s recent rally centres around “expectation of future market tightness, rather than current fundamentals,” adding that they do not expect prices at current levels to hold.

Albert Mackenzie, copper analyst at Benchmark Minerals, shared a similar view. “When you see an all-time high being broken, it tends to pull back or slow down,” he said in an interview with MINING.COM. Lately, however, “it just keeps on going up and up,” Mackenzie noted, pointing to several consecutive months of record-setting sessions.

The tamed expectations come at a time when copper had just set a new record high of $11,540 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, fueled by fears of a global supply squeeze as the metal continues to be shipped into the US ahead of potential tariffs.

Those concerns were heightened last week after trading house Mercuria Energy Group warned of the “extreme” dislocations in the current market.

“There’s growing recognition that ongoing US-bound flows could fuel shortages in China and other markets, even in a weakening demand environment,” Kostas Bintas, Mercuria’s head of metals, said during an industry event held in Shanghai last month.

“Demand is not good, there is a surplus — and the price going higher. There is a special dynamic,” he said, even predicting that non-US markets could even “be left without copper cathodes”.

Dispelling shortage concerns

Goldman’s analysts, however, have a different take. While they acknowledged the supply drain that is taking place, resulting in a higher copper price forecast for the first half of next year, the “critically low” inventories outside America could be avoided via higher regional premiums and tighter LME spreads.

“While our much smaller 2026 surplus of 160,000 tons moves the market closer to balanced, it means that we do not expect the global copper market to enter a shortage any time soon,” they wrote, adding that prices will be “constricted” in a range between $10,000-$11,000 a ton next year.

Copper has a long history of lofty predictions that have failed to materialize. And although disruptions at major mines through 2025 have tightened supply, growth in global demand has softened in recent months despite continued strength from sectors such as clean energy.

Looking ahead, Goldman said it does not see a global copper shortage until at least 2029, as demand is still forecast to be about half a million short of supply this year. A key factor, the bank noted, is the pivotal Chinese market, where consumption could slump by nearly 8% year-on-year in the fourth quarter.

Benchmark’s Mackenzie also casts doubt on the sustainability of a copper rally built on supply tightness. “I don’t necessarily know whether the narrative is entirely correct,” he said, suggesting that today’s fundamentals may not justify the exuberance driving the rally.





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5 12, 2025

XAU/USD Eyes $4,600 as Fed Cuts Loom

By |2025-12-05T01:56:04+02:00December 5, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Near $4,200 as Fed Rate Cut Bets and Mining Catalysts Reshape Market Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) remains resilient at $4,199.06 per ounce, trading narrowly between $4,160 and $4,260, with investors positioning ahead of the December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting. Despite modest pressure from stronger equities, institutional accumulation and strategic mining developments across North America are reinforcing long-term bullish sentiment.

Federal Reserve Outlook and Macro Dynamics Support Gold Stability

Recent U.S. data reinforced expectations of a near-term rate cut. The ADP Employment Report showed a decline of 32,000 jobs, the sharpest fall in over two years, while ISM Services PMI printed at 52.6, indicating steady but cooling expansion. Market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool assigns an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction next week. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 98.80, near a one-month low, while the 10-year Treasury yield holds around 4.08%, keeping monetary conditions favorable for non-yielding assets like gold.

XAU/USD Technical Structure Points to Consolidation Within a Broader Bullish Trend

On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains above its 50-day ($4,067) and 100-day moving averages, confirming that the uptrend remains intact despite near-term exhaustion. Resistance stands firm at $4,250, with sellers defending this level amid weaker momentum signals—the RSI has cooled to 60, and the ADX (20) shows subdued trend strength. Support is visible at $4,150–$4,160, marking the lower boundary of the recent breakout pattern. A decisive move above $4,250 could trigger acceleration toward $4,350–$4,400, while a breakdown below $4,150 risks a retracement to the $4,000 psychological zone.

Mining Developments Reinforce Structural Gold Supply Constraints

Beyond macro catalysts, supply-side developments are reshaping the gold landscape. GMV Minerals Inc. (TSXV:GMV / OTCQB:GMVMF) secured final drill permits for its 100%-owned Mexican Hat Project in Arizona, paving the way for a 7,300-meter diamond drilling program across 35 holes in early 2026. The Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) highlights a base-case IRR of 66.1% pre-tax (50.2% after-tax) and NPV (5%) of $390.2M pre-tax ($268.3M after-tax) at $2,500/oz gold. At current prices near $4,000/oz, project economics improve dramatically—IRR surges to 134.2% pre-tax and NPV reaches $1.05B pre-tax ($744.4M after-tax) with a 1.5-year payback period. The mine life of 10 years and average annual production of ~60,000 oz underline its scalability, while the capex of $89.99M and low strip ratio (2.05) position it among the lowest-cost heap leach projects in North America.

U.S. Gold Corp (NASDAQ:USAU) Advances Toward 2028 Production With Technological Edge

U.S. Gold Corp is nearing completion of its CK Gold Project Feasibility Study, expected in January 2026, marking one of the few fully permitted U.S. developments. The project targets 110,000 gold-equivalent ounces per year over a 10-year mine life, leveraging Jameson Cell flotation technology to enhance recovery and lower energy costs. The Wyoming-based site’s proximity to Denver—90 minutes from major logistics infrastructure—provides exceptional cost advantages compared to greenfield mines. Construction begins with access road development in December 2025, full financing in H1 2026, and commercial production expected by 2028.

Strategically, the project benefits from domestic sourcing trends and clean concentrate quality that avoids smelter penalties. With expansion potential below current resource boundaries and additional upside from its Keystone Project in Nevada, U.S. Gold Corp is positioned to capitalize on sustained gold prices above $4,000/oz.

Global Yield Movements Add Temporary Friction to Bullish Momentum

Gold’s advance paused as Japanese 10-year yields rose above 1.9%, the highest since 2007, sparking a spillover into global bond markets. The resulting uptick in Treasury yields curtailed near-term momentum, pushing gold from the weekly high of $4,260. Still, the structural picture remains constructive—geopolitical uncertainty from the stalled Russia–Ukraine peace talks and weak U.S. labor data are reinforcing investor preference for safe-haven hedges.

Institutional Positioning and ETF Inflows Reflect Deepening Market Commitment

Institutional exposure to gold continues to rise through exchange-traded products and mining equities. Assets under management across gold ETFs climbed above $240 billion, while U.S. futures data show steady long positioning by managed money. The sharp divergence between ETF inflows and physical demand reflects growing investor use of regulated financial vehicles over physical storage.

Macro Themes: Dollar Weakness, Inflation Cooling, and Fiscal Strain

The decline of the U.S. Dollar remains central to gold’s medium-term narrative. The Federal Reserve’s projected pivot from restrictive policy toward easing into 2026 aligns with sustained fiscal deficits and negative real yields, amplifying long-term demand for gold as a monetary hedge. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, but the downtrend in Prices Paid (65.4) and slowing wage data reinforce an environment where gold thrives against falling nominal yields.

Strategic Assessment of Supply and Valuation

Gold’s production landscape remains structurally constrained. Global output growth is flat, exploration budgets lag inflation, and permitting timelines continue to expand. Projects like Mexican Hat and CK Gold demonstrate how North American jurisdictions are emerging as strategic sources of new supply amid global tightening. With both assets expected to enter construction phases between 2026 and 2027, they collectively contribute to the longer-term production balance underpinning gold’s price floor above $4,000/oz.

Price Forecast and Market Outlook: XAU/USD Aims For $4,400 Near-Term and $4,600 in 2026

The technical and macro alignment favors a bullish trajectory. If XAU/USD secures a daily close above $4,250, momentum could target $4,350–$4,400 by early 2026. Sustained Fed easing and geopolitical risk could extend gains toward $4,600–$4,700 later in the year. On the downside, failure to defend $4,150 could drive a controlled pullback to $4,000, aligning with the 100-day SMA and providing a renewed buying opportunity.

Final Outlook: BUY — Structural Bull Market Remains Intact

With gold steady near $4,200, rate cut expectations firm at 89%, and mining expansion set to tighten future supply, the structural setup remains decisively bullish. XAU/USD is a BUY, targeting $4,400 in the medium term and $4,600 in 2026, supported by dovish monetary policy, ETF inflows, and the accelerating transition from speculative to institutional gold ownership.

That’s TradingNEWS





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4 12, 2025

Natural Gas News: EIA Report Miss Fuels Bearish Sentiment in Today’s Market

By |2025-12-04T23:55:01+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


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4 12, 2025

ASX gains; miners soar on record copper; bond yields increase

By |2025-12-04T21:54:05+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The sharemarket climbed for the third session on Thursday as a record copper price helped offset a sell-off in property after bond traders priced out any chance of another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia this cycle.

The S&P/ASX 200 index closed 23.2 points higher, or 0.3 per cent, at 8618.4 in a choppy session, despite an increasing probability of higher borrowing costs in the coming months. Bond traders are now pricing in a 17 per cent chance the central bank will lift the cash rate as early as February.

RBA meeting ‘live’

That’s after data showed Australian household spending in October soared by the most in two years, validating the RBA’s concerns about inflation, which is already well outside of its target band.

“The consumer is in much better shape with higher income, higher savings, higher house prices,” said Jo Masters, chief economist at Barrenjoey, who is tipping a rate increase in May and again in August. She believes the RBA February meeting is live to a possible rate increase.

The RBA is widely expected to hold the cash rate for the fourth consecutive meeting at 3.6 per cent when it meets next week.

“The message is loud and clear: the bias is firmly towards higher policy rates,” warned Ben Wiltshire, global rates trading strategist at Citi. He noted that the market had gone from fully pricing an interest rate cut by August 2026 just one month ago, to fully pricing a rate increase by August 2026.

On the ASX, five of the 11 sectors closed higher. Materials did much of the heavy lifting as copper hit a record high in London and topped 91,400 yuan ($19,566) in Shanghai on concerns that potential US tariffs would fuel a global supply squeeze.

The surge pushed index heavyweights sharply higher. Rio Tinto, which is holding an investor day, hit a record high of $140.58. BHP soared 3.6 per cent to $44.55, its highest level since October 2024.

South32 leapt 3.9 per cent to $3.51. Sandfire Resources 3 per cent to $16.83, and Capstone Copper 8 per cent to $14.25.

ANZ led the big banks higher, climbing 1.7 per cent to $35.32. Commonwealth Bank rose 0.8 per cent to $152.22 and Westpac 0.7 per cent to $37.66. Bendigo Bank was up 0.5 per cent amid plans to acquire RACQ Bank’s book of $2.7 billion in loans and $2.5 billion in deposits.

The prospect of higher borrowing costs weighed on the real estate sector, which slumped 2.1 per cent. Goodman Group dropped 2.7 per cent to $29.36, Stockland 1.8 per cent to $5.82 and Scentre 1.9 per cent to $4.11. Among the retailers, JB Hi-Fi dropped 2.1 per cent to $96.09, and Temple & Webster 2.4 per cent to $14.01.

Stocks in focus

In company news, BetMakers advanced 5.7 per cent to 18.5¢ as it signed an exclusive five-year agreement with Betfair to provide technology for the launch of premium wagering brand CrownBet.

Vulcan Energy Resources tumbled 33 per cent to $4.1 after raising €398 million ($710 million) in shares at $4 to finance a renewable energy project.

Regis Healthcare fell 3.9 per cent to $7.64 on news it agreed to sell its Ayr and Home Hill aged care homes in Queensland to not-for-profit provider Ozcare.



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4 12, 2025

Platinum price needs a new momentum– Forecast today – 4-12-2025

By |2025-12-04T19:53:06+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Platinum price is affected by the contradiction between the main indicators, especially by stochastic reach below 80 level, to force it to provide new sideways trading, to keep its stability near$1660.00.

 

Reminding you that holding above $1605.00 level, will make it form extra support to increase the chances of gathering the required bullish momentum to reach $1695.00, and surpassing this obstacle will extend the trading towards the positive stations that begin at $1745.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1620.00 and $1695.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish





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4 12, 2025

Silver (XAGUSD) Price Forecast: Explosive Move to $58.85 – New Record Highs Confirmed

By |2025-12-04T17:51:52+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Dynamic Support Structure

The entire move traces back to a successful defense of the rising 50-day average (now $49.68), followed by swift reclamation of the 20-day ($51.31) and 10-day ($52.66) lines. These averages are rapidly solidifying as dynamic support beneath the accelerating trend, with last Wednesday’s 10-day back-test marking the exact launch point for the current leg.

Next Resistance Cluster

The first serious upside obstacle appears between $59.89 and $60.20, where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the multi-decade correction from the 2011 $49.81 top converges with other projections. That zone will test whether this momentum can punch straight into the $60s or requires a brief pause.

Broader Pattern Confirmation

Weekly charts repeatedly bounced from the 10-week average during the recent consolidation phase—each touch producing sharp reversals that reflected underlying strength. Longer-term, silver remains in a massive cup formation; the handle so far is unusually small and may still deepen, but Monday’s ferocity suggests the market has little interest in waiting.

Measured Move & Beyond

Friday’s ascending triangle breakout carries a clean measured objective above $63.00, providing a minimum expectation for the current impulse. Combined with the larger cup structure, the setup keeps significantly higher levels on the table if demand can be sustained.

Outlook

Silver exhibits classic strong-trend behavior: record highs, strong closes on all timeframes, and refusal to correct meaningfully. The first real pullback—whenever it arrives—will be the litmus test; shallow depth and quick absorption would cement breakout validity, while the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 10-week averages now trail as layered support. Until evidence says otherwise, assume every dip gets bought aggressively and the path of least resistance remains sharply higher toward $59.89–$60.20 and ultimately above $63.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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4 12, 2025

Brent Near $63 and WTI Around $59 as Ukraine Strikes, OPEC+ Freeze and Oversupply Collide

By |2025-12-04T15:50:02+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Global oil prices are edging higher today, but the move is modest and still framed by a bigger story of oversupply and cautious forecasts for 2026. Brent crude is trading just under $63 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sits around $59 per barrel, after a month of tight ranges and heavy focus on OPEC+ policy, Ukraine–Russia peace talks and fresh downgrades to long‑term price forecasts.  [1]

Below is a detailed look at where prices stand today, what’s moving the market, and how new forecasts from Fitch and other analysts are reshaping expectations for 2025–2027.


1. Where Oil Prices Stand Today (December 4, 2025)

Spot / front‑month levels

As of late morning in Europe on Thursday, December 4, 2025:

  • Brent crude futures are trading around $62.9–$63.0 per barrel, up about 0.3–0.4% on the day.  [2]
  • WTI crude is hovering near $59.2–$59.3 per barrel, also up roughly 0.5–0.6% versus Wednesday’s close.  [3]

Different data providers show small intraday discrepancies, but they all tell the same story: oil is slightly firmer today after a quiet, range‑bound November.

Performance in context

  • Brent is down about 12–13% year‑on‑year and roughly 1% lower over the past month, according to Trading Economics’ daily series.  [4]
  • WTI is down more than 14% year‑to‑date and about 2% lower over the last month, even after this week’s rebound.  [5]
  • ICE Brent futures have averaged roughly $68.8 per barrel from January to November 2025, more than $11 below the 2024 average, highlighting how far prices have slipped from last year’s levels.  [6]

In short, today’s bounce comes against a clearly bearish 2025 backdrop: prices are higher than the market’s worst moments earlier in the year but still comfortably below 2024 and long‑term averages.


2. Today’s Main Driver: Ukraine Strikes on Russian Oil Assets and Stalled Peace Talks

The key news story driving today’s modest gains is renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, paired with frustratingly slow peace negotiations.

Drone strikes and the Druzhba pipeline

  • Ukraine hit the Druzhba pipeline in Russia’s Tambov region, one of Europe’s major conduits for Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. This was at least the fifth attack on the pipeline, according to Ukrainian and Reuters reporting.  [7]
  • Despite the strike, the pipeline operator and Hungary’s national oil and gas company said flows are continuing normally, which is why the price reaction has been limited rather than dramatic.  [8]

Beyond pipelines, Ukraine has ramped up drone strikes on Russian refineries:

  • Consultancy Kpler estimates these attacks have cut Russian refining throughput to around 5 million barrels per day between September and November, roughly 335,000 bpd lower than a year earlier, with gasoline and gasoil hit hardest.  [9]

These disruptions raise the perceived risk premium in oil, especially in refined products, but because exports and pipeline flows have not been seriously curtailed so far, the impact on crude prices remains contained.

Peace talks that go nowhere

At the same time, Ukraine–Russia peace efforts have stalled:

  • Envoys of U.S. President Donald Trump returned from talks with the Kremlin with no breakthrough or clear roadmap for ending the war, dampening earlier hopes that sanctions on Russian oil might soon be relaxed.  [10]

Earlier optimism about a quick peace deal had pushed prices lower on the assumption that Russian barrels would rush back into an already oversupplied market. The lack of progress now nudges prices higher, not because demand is strong, but because the “bearish peace scenario” looks less imminent.

Put together, the supply risk from attacks and lack of a peace deal are giving crude a gentle lift today, but they are running into a wall of bearish fundamentals.


3. The Bearish Counterweight: U.S. Inventory Builds and Record Output

If geopolitics are leaning bullish, fundamentals are leaning bearish.

U.S. crude and fuel inventories keep rising

Fresh weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that:

  • Commercial crude stocks rose by about 574,000–600,000 barrels in the week ending November 28, to roughly 427.5 million barrels, versus market expectations for a sizeable draw of almost 2 million barrels.  [11]
  • Gasoline inventories surged by about 4.5 million barrels to over 214 million barrels, signalling soft demand.  [12]

Rising inventories in the world’s largest oil consumer send a clear message: consumption is not strong enough to absorb current supply, let alone additional barrels.

U.S. production remains near record highs

  • EIA weekly data suggest U.S. crude output is around 13.8 million barrels per day, essentially at record levels, even as growth is expected to flatten in 2026.  [13]

This dynamic—high inventories plus record production—helps explain why today’s geopolitical headlines are producing only a mild bounce instead of a sustained rally.


4. OPEC+ Has Locked In a Production Pause for Q1 2026

Another crucial piece of the puzzle is OPEC+ policy, which has now been clarified through the first quarter of 2026.

Output frozen, capacity mechanism approved

At meetings held at the end of November, OPEC+ decided to:

  • Keep oil output unchanged throughout Q1 2026, effectively pausing further production increases after a year in which eight members collectively raised targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day[14]
  • Maintain roughly 3.24 million bpd of cuts compared with pre‑cut levels—around 3% of global demand—including a long‑standing 2 million bpd group‑wide reduction that runs through the end of 2026.  [15]
  • Approve a new mechanism to assess each member’s maximum sustainable production capacity during 2026, which will be used to set baseline quotas from 2027 onward, a key step in resolving long‑running disputes about who deserves what share of the pie.  [16]

Analysts describe the decision as a “stability over ambition” move: the group is accepting flat output in the near term to avoid deepening an expected surplus.

IEA expects a large surplus in early 2026

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and various analyst houses see a hefty surplus ahead:

  • A Reuters poll of 35 economists and analysts suggests global oil markets could be in surplus by anywhere from 0.5 to over 4 million barrels per day in 2026, with the IEA on the high end at around 4.1 mbpd[17]

Against that backdrop, OPEC+’s decision to freeze Q1 2026 output looks less like an aggressive support move and more like the bare minimum needed to prevent a deeper price slide.


5. Fresh Forecasts: Fitch and Analysts Turn More Cautious

Fitch cuts its 2025–2027 oil price assumptions

In a major development for medium‑term expectations, Fitch Ratings has lowered its base‑case oil price assumptions:

  • Brent crude
    • 2025: $69/bbl (down from $70)
    • 2026: $63/bbl (down from $65)
    • 2027: $63/bbl (down from $65)
  • WTI crude
    • 2025: $64/bbl (down from $65)
    • 2026–2027: $58/bbl (down from $60)  [18]

Fitch explicitly cites “large market oversupply”, with production growth expected to outpace only modest increases in demand. It forecasts global oil demand growth of about 0.8 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, below historical norms, reflecting slower GDP growth, petrochemical weakness and the energy transition.  [19]

Fitch’s stress‑case scenario keeps even lower prices in the outer years but is mainly a risk management framework for corporate credit analysis.

Reuters poll: 2026 averages slip to the low 60s

The caution is widespread:

  • Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts expects Brent to average about $62.23/bbl in 2026, down from October’s $63.15 forecast.
  • WTI is forecast to average around $59/bbl[20]

The same poll underscores the oversupply narrative, pointing to increased OPEC+ output since April and robust non‑OPEC supply, with U.S. production near records.

Market commentary: a floor, but not much upside

Oilprice.com’s recent macro analysis synthesises this emerging consensus:

  • 2026 forecasts clustering around $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI.
  • The IEA’s surplus projections are seen as aggressive but even the most conservative views expect stock builds, not deficits next year.
  • With WTI projected to average around $59, slightly below the breakeven for new Permian wells, analysts argue this may create a de facto price floor by discouraging high‑cost supply, reducing the odds of a sharp, sustained collapse.  [21]

The net takeaway: today’s prices near $63 (Brent) and $59 (WTI) are very close to where major institutions expect them to average over the next 12–24 months.


6. Short‑Term Technical Picture: Range‑Bound With a Mild Bullish Bias

Beyond macro fundamentals, several technical analysts released intraday commentary for December 4:

  • Brent crude is described by Economies.com as trading above its 50‑day exponential moving average (EMA50), using that level as “dynamic support” while attempting to build enough bullish momentum to extend its positive intraday path.  [22]
  • A companion note on generic crude oil (closely tracking WTI) says prices recently dipped but remain above EMA50 and along a minor upward trend line, with oscillators having flashed negative signals before stabilising—conditions that often precede short‑term recoveries within an existing uptrend[23]

Meanwhile, brokerage research (e.g., recent notes from Forex‑focused platforms) characterises WTI as “neutral around $60”, with intraday volatility under 0.2% for much of the week—evidence of a tight, indecisive trading range rather than a strong directional trend.  [24]

Key technical takeaway:
The charts largely agree with the fundamentals and forecasts: crude looks range‑bound, with $60 for WTI and the low‑to‑mid $60s for Brent acting as important pivot zones rather than launching pads for a new bull market.


7. What Today’s Oil Price Means for Consumers and Businesses

For fuel and inflation

  • With Brent in the low $60s, headline crude prices are far from the triple‑digit spikes seen earlier in the decade, easing pressure on global inflation compared to 2022–23.
  • However, refined fuel prices still depend heavily on local taxes, refinery margins and logistics. Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries and shipping routes can lift diesel and gasoline cracks even if crude remains muted, especially in Europe.  [25]

In other words, cheap(er) crude does not automatically guarantee cheap fuel, but it is helping central banks and households compared with the peak‑inflation years.

For oil‑linked stocks and producers

  • Lower long‑term assumptions from Fitch and a softer 2026 average in analyst polls imply more conservative cash‑flow projections for oil majors and independents.  [26]
  • Companies with low lifting costs, strong balance sheets and diversified portfolios (especially those integrating gas and renewables) look better positioned under a $60–$65 Brent world than high‑cost, highly leveraged producers.

Equity investors are likely to reward discipline and shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends) over aggressive volume growth as long as oversupply dominates the narrative.


8. Key Risks and Catalysts to Watch After Today

Even if oil looks “stuck” near current levels, there are several ways the story could change:

  1. Ukraine–Russia peace track
    • credible peace framework that includes a gradual rollback of sanctions could unleash more Russian supply and push prices lower.
    • Conversely, a breakdown in talks or further attacks on export terminals, pipelines or tankers could sharply raise the risk premium[27]
  2. OPEC+ discipline and internal tensions
    • The new capacity‑assessment framework will reopen the long‑running debate over quotas for countries like the UAE and some African producers. A messy negotiation in 2026 could fracture unity and undermine the production freeze.  [28]
  3. Demand surprises
    • If global growth in 2026 surprises to the upside, or if Chinese demand rebounds more strongly than current forecasts suggest, the expected surplus could narrow quickly.
    • On the flip side, a deeper downturn or faster‑than‑expected energy‑transition effects could entrench sub‑$60 WTI pricing.
  4. U.S. shale and investment response
    • With projected WTI averages drifting near or below new well breakevens in some basins, persistent low prices could slow investment more sharply than currently modelled, tightening balances later in the decade.  [29]

9. Quick FAQ: Oil Price Today

Is oil going up or down today?
Today, prices are up modestly—Brent and WTI are each higher by roughly 0.3–0.6%—mostly on supply‑risk headlines from Ukraine and stalled peace talks, but gains are capped by weak fundamentals and oversupply worries.  [30]

Why isn’t oil higher given all the geopolitical risk?
Because stocks are building, U.S. production is near records, and OPEC+ has already moved from deep cuts to cautious increases and now a freeze. The market sees plenty of barrels for 2026, so geopolitical events need to produce actual, sustained supply losses to meaningfully lift prices.  [31]

What do major forecasters expect for the next few years?

  • Fitch now assumes $69 Brent in 2025, drifting to $63 in 2026–27, with WTI at $64 then $58[32]
  • Reuters poll pegs 2026 Brent at about $62 and WTI at $59[33]

That means today’s levels are very close to where professionals expect the market to trade on average over the medium term, unless something big changes in supply, demand or policy.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. tradingeconomics.com, 5. oilprice.com, 6. oilprice.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. dmarketforces.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. menafn.com, 19. menafn.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. oilprice.com, 22. www.economies.com, 23. www.economies.com, 24. www.forex.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. menafn.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. oilprice.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. menafn.com, 33. www.reuters.com



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4 12, 2025

WTI price bearish at European opening

By |2025-12-04T13:49:02+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.45 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $58.89.

Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $62.37 after its previous daily close at $62.86.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.



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4 12, 2025

The CADJPY keeps the bullish attempts– Forecast today – 4-12-2025

By |2025-12-04T11:48:09+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Natural gas price continued forming bullish waves, taking advantage of its stability within the bullish channel’s levels, to form a solid support by %38.2 Fibonacci correction level at $4.500, to approach from the initial main target by reaching $5.052 level.

 

Stochastic stability within the overbought level will increase the efficiency of the bullish track, to pave the way for surpassing $5.180 level, to open the way for recording extra gains that might extend towards $5.250 and $5.710.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $4.950 and $5.450

 

Trend forecast: Bullish





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4 12, 2025

XAU/USD consolidates before the next leg north

By |2025-12-04T09:47:18+02:00December 4, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold has entered a phase of upside consolidation, oscillating in a familiar range around the $4,200 mark, awaiting more US jobs data for fresh hints on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook beyond the December monetary policy meeting.

Gold eyes fresh catalyst for a sustained upside

The top-tier US ADP Employment Change and US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services PMI data released on Wednesday failed to impress and served little to alter market expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut by the Fed next week.

The ISM Services PMI showed little improvement in November at 52.6 versus 52.4 in October, while US private payrolls unexpectedly declined by 32K in November, following a revised 47K increase. Analysts’ estimated a job gain of 5K.

Markets continued to price in around a 90% chance that the Fed will deliver the expected 25 bps rate cut next week, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Dovish Fed expectations kept the downside cushioned in Gold on Wednesday, while the bullish attempts were limited by a bout of profit-taking as sellers once again lurked near the $4,250 region.

Looking ahead, with a December Fed rate cut almost certain, markets are scouting for hints on the US central bank’s easing trajectory for early 2026.

In the absence of any clarity on that front, the incoming US Jobless Claims and the sentiment on Wall Street will continue to drive Gold price action, with moves likely to b restricted.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,197.02. The 21-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) rise in bullish sequence, with the 21-day above the longer tenors. Price holds above all these gauges, keeping the near-term bias upward. The 21-day SMA at $4,126.81 offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 59.83, signaling firm momentum while staying short of overbought.

Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 is being reclaimed, and a sustained close above it would weaken the preceding bearish leg. Further strength would put the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 in play as resistance. Holding above the short-term average would keep the path skewed to the upside, while a rejection back below the 61.8% retracement could trigger a pullback toward the medium-term trend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



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