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2 12, 2025

$4,250 acts as a tough nut to crack for XAU/USD buyers

By |2025-12-02T19:27:03+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold is on a retreat from six-week highs of $4,265 reached on Monday, experiencing some volatility around the $4,200 threshold early Tuesday.

Gold down but not out yet

Despite the ongoing pullback, Gold has managed to find fresh buyers in the $4,200 region, as concerns over the health of the United States (US) economy continue to make the case for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next week.

Data released on Monday showed US manufacturing contracted for the ninth straight month in November, as the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) PMI dropped to 48.2 in November from 48.7 a month earlier. The market expectation was 48.6.

Markets keep predicting an 87% chance that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Further, the downside in Gold remains cushioned by growing nervousness over rising Japanese bond yields.

Japanese 30-year government bond yields climbed to a record peak and the 10-year yield reached a 17-year high amid growing speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise rates as soon as this month.

On Monday, Gold failed to sustain at six-week highs and retraced sharply, courtesy of the resurgence in the US Treasury bond yields as markets began assessing the Fed’s monetary policy moves beyond the December meeting.

Markets also remain wary of the likely dissents within the Fed at next week’s monetary policy meeting, which could restrict Gold price action.

Attention now turns to Wednesday’s monthly US ADP Employment Change data and the ISM Services PMI for fresh trading incentives. In the meantime, the sentiment around the Fed expectations and on global stocks will continue to drive Gold.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,216.92. The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 50-, 100- and 200-day SMAs, with all trending higher and price holding above them. This alignment underscores persistent bullish momentum, with the 21-day SMA near $4,104.27 offering nearby dynamic support. The 50-day SMA at $4,049.55 reinforces the floor beneath the market.

The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 62, positive though off recent peaks. The immediate point of contention for buyers is the $4,250 psychological barrier, which needs to be cleared on a daily closing basis.

Fibonacci retracements measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low show the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 now behind price, while the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the advance. A daily close above that retracement would open the door to further upside, while pullbacks could lean on the rising 21-day SMA near $4,104.27 to preserve the bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.



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2 12, 2025

Forecast update for EURUSD -02-12-2025.

By |2025-12-02T17:26:04+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The EURJPY pair remains affected by the negative pressure, which forces it to delay the attempts to resume the main bullish trend by its stability below 181.75 barrier, activating with stochastic negativity yesterday at 180.10 level.

 

We expect to renew the corrective attempts to target 179.40 support, then monitor its behavior due to the importance of this level to detect the expected trend in the upcoming trading, while breaching 181.75 level and providing positive close will ease the mission of recording new gains, to expect its rally towards 182.35 and 182.80 initially.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 179.40 and 181.00

 

Trend forecast: Bearish

 





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2 12, 2025

ANTO) Share Price & Outlook – Latest News, Broker Targets and Copper Market Forecasts as of 2 December 2025

By |2025-12-02T15:25:04+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Antofagasta plc, the FTSE 100 copper miner with all of its producing assets in Chile, is trading close to record highs as investors lean into the global copper story – electrification, AI data centres and grid upgrades – while watching costs, capex and Chilean risk very closely.

This article pulls together the latest price moves, company results, broker forecasts and copper market outlooks available up to 2 December 2025, to give a structured view of where Antofagasta stock stands now and what could drive it into 2026.

Disclaimer: This article is for information and general commentary only. It is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Where the Antofagasta share price stands on 2 December 2025

On the morning of 2 December 2025, Antofagasta’s own investor website showed the share price fluctuating around 2,805–2,820p, with a modest intraday decline of around 0.5% at 10:22 UK time after a strong run the previous day. [1]

Key near-term context:

  • On Monday 1 December, the share was among the top FTSE 100 risers, trading around 2,833p, up roughly 2.5% intraday as copper prices moved higher and the broader index drifted lower. [2]
  • Over the last 12 months the stock has traded between roughly 1,278p and 2,877p, meaning it currently sits well over 100% above its 52‑week low and close to its record high zone. [3]

Short‑term technical commentary from trading site StockInvest notes:

  • Close on 1 December 2025 at 2,820p, up 2.25% on the day.
  • 52‑week range 1,278–2,877p and a 30‑day range of 2,496–2,838p, underscoring elevated volatility near the top of the range.
  • Their model currently flags the stock as short‑term “sell” on overbought technicals, with an expectation of a possible pullback from these levels. [4]

From a valuation angle, a recent analyst consensus snapshot compiled by DirectorsTalk at the end of November showed:

  • Average 12‑month target price: ~2,631.6p
  • Share price at that time: ~2,577p
  • Implied upside: just over 2% then – but now the stock is trading above that average target. [5]

The same data set pointed to:

  • Trailing P/E: ~23x
  • Forward P/E: ~16.5x
  • Dividend yield: ~1.2%, with a payout ratio of about 29%. [6]

In other words: Antofagasta is being valued as a high‑quality growth copper producer rather than a deep‑value cyclical.

Earnings momentum: H1 2025 results were exceptionally strong

Antofagasta’s 2025 Half Year Results, published on 14 August 2025, marked one of its strongest interim performances in years. [7]

Headline numbers for the six months to 30 June 2025:

  • Revenue: rose 29% year‑on‑year to $3.80bn (from $2.96bn).
  • EBITDA: jumped 60% to $2.23bn (from $1.39bn).
  • EBITDA margin: expanded from 47.2% to 58.8%, putting Antofagasta at the upper end of global pure‑play copper producers by margin. [8]
  • Profit before tax: up 63% to $1.16bn. [9]
  • Underlying EPS: more than doubled to 47.4 cents (from 22.4 cents). [10]
  • Operating cash flow: up 22% to $1.81bn. [11]
  • Interim dividend:16.6 cents per share, up 110% versus 2024’s 7.9 cents, keeping payout consistent with their capital allocation framework. [12]

Operational drivers:

  • H1 2025 copper production reached 314,900 tonnes, up 11% year‑on‑year, mainly from higher output at the big concentrators (Los Pelambres and Centinela Concentrates). [13]
  • Cash costs before by‑product credits fell 12% to $2.32/lb, while net cash costs dropped 32% to $1.32/lb, thanks to higher volumes and stronger by‑product contributions. [14]

Reuters summarised the half‑year as a roughly 60% surge in core earnings, highlighting the company’s outperformance versus other FTSE 100 miners that were reporting weaker results. Analysts at RBC called the numbers unusually “clean”, and the interim dividend more than doubled year‑on‑year. [15]

Management reiterated that Antofagasta is on track to deliver over 30% growth in copper output in the medium term, driven primarily by:

  • The Centinela Second Concentrator project.
  • Growth‑enabling projects at Los Pelambres (pipeline replacement and desalination expansion). [16]

Q3 2025: production steady, costs lower, guidance fine‑tuned

The Q3 2025 Production Report (23 October 2025) confirms that the strong first half was not a fluke. [17]

Key Q3 and year‑to‑date figures:

  • Q3 copper production:161,800 tonnes, up 1% quarter‑on‑quarter.
  • 9M 2025 copper production:476,600 tonnes, 2.8–3% higher than the same period in 2024. [18]
  • Gold production: 145,000 ounces year‑to‑date, up 22% year‑on‑year, with Q3 gold up 12% quarter‑on‑quarter. [19]
  • Molybdenum production: 11,400 tonnes in 9M, up 44% year‑on‑year, although Q3 output dipped versus Q2 on lower grades. [20]

Costs and guidance:

  • Cash costs before by‑product credits in 9M were about $2.35/lb, down around 7% vs 2024. [21]
  • Net cash costs year‑to‑date:$1.24/lb; in Q3 alone, net cash costs were even lower at $1.07/lb, thanks largely to record by‑product credits of $1.35/lb (driven by higher gold output and favourable pricing). [22]

Guidance tweaks:

  • 2025 copper production: management now expects to land at the lower end of the original 660,000–700,000 tonne range. [23]
  • Net cash cost guidance for 2025 has been cut from $1.45–1.65/lb to $1.20–1.30/lb – a meaningful improvement, reflecting very strong by‑product markets and ongoing cost discipline. [24]
  • 2025 capex guidance has been reduced from $3.9bn to $3.6bn, primarily due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso rather than project cancellations. Citi interprets the lower 2025 capex as partly a deferral into 2026 rather than a fundamental cut. [25]
  • 2026 copper production guidance has been set at 650,000–700,000 tonnes, still implying robust levels of output despite a tight global copper concentrate market. [26]

Project pipeline and labour:

  • Major growth projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres remain on track and on budget, including assembly of high‑pressure grinding rolls, progress on desalination facilities and replacement of the concentrate pipeline. [27]
  • The group has concluded several key three‑year labour agreements at Los Pelambres, Antucoya and Zaldívar, with only one remaining negotiation scheduled in 2025 – reducing near‑term labour disruption risk. [28]

Copper market squeeze: why the macro backdrop matters so much

Antofagasta is effectively a leveraged play on copper, so global copper fundamentals are crucial.

Several recent pieces of research and newsflow paint a consistent picture of a tightening copper market out to 2026:

Treatment charges collapsing, sign of a concentrate shortage

  • In June 2025, Reuters reported that some Chinese smelters agreed to process Antofagasta’s copper concentrate at $0 per tonne and 0 cents per pound in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), a shocking benchmark that underscores how scarce concentrate has become. [29]
  • That deal contrasts sharply with the 2025 annual benchmark TC/RCs of $21.25/t and 2.125c/lb that Antofagasta agreed with Jiangxi Copper, as highlighted later by Fastmarkets. [30]
  • Fastmarkets notes that spot TC indices in Asia are deeply negative, and that 2026 negotiations are likely to be the “toughest year yet”, with traders bidding aggressively for concentrate and smelters relying heavily on by‑product revenues (notably gold and sulfuric acid) just to break even. [31]

Forecast concentrate deficits:

  • Consultancy estimates cited by Reuters put the global copper concentrate deficit at around 1.1 million tonnes in 2025 and 2.6 million tonnes in 2026. [32]
  • Fastmarkets panelists expect a 300,000–500,000 tonne deficit in 2026, with mine production not keeping pace with electrification and AI‑driven demand. [33]

Price forecasts out to 2026

  • Deutsche Bank, in a late‑November outlook, raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,600 per tonne, with peak prices expected to exceed $11,000/t in the first half of that year. [34]
  • The bank expects mine supply to fall in 2025 and increase only about 1% in 2026, reinforcing a market in sustained deficit. [35]
  • Fastmarkets’ 2026 webinar recap suggests a base‑case range of $10,000–$11,000/t, with bear‑case scenarios around $8,000 and bull cases at $12,000 or higher if disruptions continue and policy shocks (like tariffs) tighten trade flows. [36]

Citi’s view, quoted in Reuters’ Q3 coverage, is that Antofagasta’s relatively conservative 2026 production guidance at one of the “best‑run” copper operations is another sign of a supply‑constrained global copper market. [37]

All of this matters for Antofagasta because:

  • Its costs (especially net cash costs) are now solidly in the lowest third of the cost curve once by‑products are considered. [38]
  • Its medium‑term growth (+30% output) is timing into a period when multiple analysts expect structural deficits and incentive‑level prices.

If copper holds anywhere near the $10k–$11k/t band, Antofagasta’s margins and cash generation could remain very strong. On the flip side, any macro shock that knocks copper down towards the $8k/t bear‑case would hit earnings hard.

Broker ratings and valuation snapshot: what are analysts saying?

Recent broker and market‑data snippets provide a mixed but generally constructive picture.

Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank’s late‑November copper sector note:

  • Maintains “Hold” on Antofagasta.
  • Raises the target price from 2,300p to 2,400p. [39]

Given that the stock is now around 2,800p, the new DB target implies downside from current levels, signalling that the bank sees much of the copper bull case as already in the price.

Consensus and fundamentals

The DirectorsTalk aggregation shows:

  • Consensus target: ~2,632p.
  • Current trading: above that consensus, signalling limited short‑term upside in broker models at today’s price. [40]
  • Forward P/E around 16–17x and EV/EBITDA around 9–10x, measured when the share price was lower than today, suggest the market is happy to pay a growth multiple for high‑margin copper exposure. [41]

Short‑term trading services:

  • StockInvest currently classifies the stock as a short‑term sell based on overbought technical indicators near the top of its trading channel, even as the medium‑term trend remains positive. [42]
  • MarketsMojo commentary in late November highlighted multiple intraday surges of 3–5% in the stock, and at least one piece of their templated analysis tagged Antofagasta as a “Strong Buy” within their style‑based framework, though the underlying metrics are paywalled. [43]

In summary:
Fundamental brokers seem to see Antofagasta as fully valued to slightly rich at current prices, while momentum‑oriented services still highlight strong trend strength but warn about short‑term overheating.

ESG, growth projects and long‑term positioning

Antofagasta has been trying to position itself not just as a copper producer, but as a low‑carbon, infrastructure‑ready supplier to the energy transition.

Recent developments include:

  • Hydrogen locomotive pilot: In late November, Antofagasta’s transport division FCAB launched Latin America’s first hydrogen‑powered freight locomotive, using hydrogen produced from renewable sources in a hybrid fuel‑cell and battery system. The locomotive delivers about 1,000 kW of power while being roughly 30 tonnes lighter than a comparable diesel unit. [44]
  • The pilot forms part of a broader decarbonisation strategy, including:
    • A target to cut Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% by 2035;
    • A long‑term goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 across mining and transport operations. [45]

On the mining side, structural growth is anchored by:

  • Centinela Second Concentrator – now in its second year of full construction, designed to materially increase sulphide processing capacity and by‑product output (notably gold and molybdenum). [46]
  • Los Pelambres desalination plant expansion and new concentrate pipeline, both advancing through civil and installation works and aimed at improving water security and logistics resilience. [47]
  • Zaldívar Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval earlier in 2025, which allows the mine life to be extended to 2051, securing a significant portion of the group’s long‑term production base. [48]

These projects underpin management’s guidance of +30% medium‑term production growth and help support the company’s premium valuation relative to many diversified miners. [49]

Recent market behaviour: miners riding copper and UK macro news

In the final week of November and into December, Antofagasta has tended to move in step with the broader mining complex and copper price:

  • On 26 November, UK equities rallied after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ tax‑raising but market‑soothing budget.
    • The FTSE 100 closed up 0.9%.
    • Industrial miners gained about 1.5%.
    • Antofagasta rose around 2.1%, alongside Anglo American’s 3.2% gain, as copper prices strengthened. [50]
  • On 1 December, London South East’s “FTSE 100 movers” column again listed Antofagasta among the top risers, with the stock up 2.5% intraday to 2,833p, in tandem with metals prices while defence names lagged. [51]

This pattern – outperforming on days when copper is strong and underperforming when macro sentiment sours – is classic high‑beta commodity behaviour and emphasises that the stock is tightly coupled to copper and risk sentiment, even more so now that it trades at elevated multiples.

Key risks investors need to weigh

Even with strong fundamentals, Antofagasta is far from risk‑free. The main risk buckets look something like this:

  1. Copper price volatility
    • Earnings and free cash flow are highly sensitive to copper prices. A move from a $10–11k/t scenario toward the $8k/t bear‑case discussed by Fastmarkets’ panel would significantly dent margins and returns, even with lower net cash costs. [52]
  2. Project execution and capex creep
    • While management insists that Centinela and Los Pelambres projects are on budget and on schedule, large‑scale projects always face risks around cost inflation, delays and technical issues.
    • The shift in 2025 capex guidance from $3.9bn to $3.6bn is presented as FX‑driven deferral, but the true spend and timing will only become clear in 2026. [53]
  3. Chile‑specific regulatory and political risk
    • All of Antofagasta’s operating mines are in Chile, concentrating exposure to that country’s tax, royalty and environmental regimes.
    • While recent years have seen more clarity on mining royalties, longer‑term political shifts could still affect profitability.
  4. Water, climate and environmental constraints
    • Operations such as Los Pelambres are in areas where water management is structurally challenging. The desalination projects are designed to mitigate this, but also increase capital intensity and operating complexity. [54]
  5. Labour and social licence to operate
    • Although multiple three‑year labour agreements were recently concluded, one negotiation remains for 2025, and future bargaining rounds always carry strike risk. [55]
    • The company’s long‑term success also depends on stable community relations and environmental compliance, particularly with more ambitious decarbonisation goals.

Is Antofagasta stock a buy, hold or sell going into 2026?

Framed in general, not personal terms, the investment case as of 2 December 2025 looks like this:

Positives

  • Exceptional recent financial performance, with EBITDA up 60% and margins near 60%, supported by higher production, lower costs and strong by‑product markets. [56]
  • Improving cost profile, with net cash costs lowered to $1.24/lb year‑to‑date and guidance for the full year cut to $1.20–1.30/lb. [57]
  • Medium‑term volume growth of ~30%, backed by fully funded projects already under construction and a mine‑life extension at Zaldívar. [58]
  • Structural copper tailwinds, with major banks and market analysts expecting deficits and base‑case prices around $10,000–$11,000/t in 2026. [59]
  • A strengthening ESG story, including pioneering hydrogen freight locomotives and robust decarbonisation commitments, which may support demand from ESG‑mandated investors. [60]

Cautions

  • The share price is near its all‑time high, with the stock trading above both Deutsche Bank’s raised 2,400p target and the consensus target around 2,630p. [61]
  • Valuation multiples (low‑ to mid‑20s trailing P/E, high‑teens forward P/E, EV/EBITDA around 9–10x) leave less margin of safety if copper prices wobble or projects slip. [62]
  • Short‑term technical indicators flag overbought conditions and the possibility of a pullback after a strong run. [63]
  • Single‑country concentration in Chile and a fully copper‑centric portfolio mean little diversification if sentiment turns against either copper or the Chilean mining regime.

For long‑term, high‑risk‑tolerant investors who are bullish on copper through the rest of the decade, Antofagasta currently represents a high‑quality but not obviously cheap way to gain leveraged exposure to that theme.

References

1. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 2. www.lse.co.uk, 3. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 4. stockinvest.us, 5. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 6. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 7. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 8. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 9. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 10. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 11. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 12. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 13. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 14. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 17. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 18. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 19. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 20. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 21. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 22. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 23. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 24. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 25. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 26. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 27. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 28. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.fastmarkets.com, 31. www.fastmarkets.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.fastmarkets.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.fastmarkets.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 39. www.investing.com, 40. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 41. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 42. stockinvest.us, 43. www.marketsmojo.com, 44. www.mining.com, 45. www.mining.com, 46. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 47. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 48. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 49. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 50. www.reuters.com, 51. www.lse.co.uk, 52. www.fastmarkets.com, 53. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 54. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 55. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 56. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 57. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 58. www.antofagasta.co.uk, 59. www.investing.com, 60. www.mining.com, 61. www.investing.com, 62. www.directorstalkinterviews.com, 63. stockinvest.us



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2 12, 2025

Platinum price gathers some gains– Forecast today – 2-12-2025

By |2025-12-02T13:24:28+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Platinum price ended the positive attack by hitting $1725.00 level, to form extra barriers to force it to activate the attempts of gathering gains by reaching $1632.00.

 

Forming extra support at $1605.00 level by stochastic fluctuation near 80 level makes us expect renewing the bullish attempts, to repeat the pressure on $1695.00 level, then attempts to reach the next main target at $ 1745.00, while its decline below $1605.00 and providing negative close will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track, to expect reaching $1575.00 before any attempt to reach the suggested extra targets.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1610.00 and $1710.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish





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2 12, 2025

XAG/USD Holds Near $57 After Record Highs – Outlook, Forecasts and Key Levels

By |2025-12-02T11:23:04+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Silver prices remain elevated on Tuesday, 2 December 2025, consolidating just below fresh record highs set at the start of the week as traders weigh almost-certain Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker US dollar and deep structural supply tightness.

Global Silver Price Today (XAG/USD) – 2 December 2025

Spot silver is still trading in rarefied air.

  • Spot price: Most major feeds show XAG/USD around $57.2–$57.4 per ounce on Tuesday, modestly lower on the session but only a step down from Monday’s all‑time highs. Data from USAGOLD and Barchart both place spot silver near $57.2–$57.3 in early US trading. [1]
  • Intraday range: Intraday data from Twelve Data show Monday’s breakout extending into an early spike above $58, with today’s trade oscillating roughly between the high-$56s and low-$58s before settling back near $57.2. [2]
  • Versus Monday: TradingEconomics and other macro dashboards note silver easing to roughly $57.29 today, down about 1–1.5% from Monday’s close but still up around 19% over the past month and roughly 85% year‑on‑year. [3]
  • 52‑week / all‑time high: Barchart’s forex overview shows a 52‑week – and effectively all‑time – high around $58.8 per ounce, reached on 1 December 2025. [4]

Put simply: today’s pullback is a dip, not a collapse. Silver remains within a couple of dollars of fresh records after one of the steepest rallies in its modern history.

Silver Rate in India Today – Prices Near ₹2 Lakh per Kg

Indian buyers are feeling the global surge amplified by a softer rupee.

Physical silver prices

  • Retail rates: The Indian Express and other local trackers peg silver at about ₹188 per gram – roughly ₹1,88,000 per kg – in key cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata on 2 December 2025, with some southern cities such as Chennai and Hyderabad closer to ₹1,96,000 per kg. [5]
  • Regional variations: Malayalam outlet Mathrubhumi reports similar levels, with standard 999 silver quoted around ₹1.8–1.9 lakh per kg across major centres, reflecting only a mild day‑on‑day cooling from Monday’s spike. [6]
  • Short‑term trend: Brokerage 5Paisa notes that ₹188 per gram keeps domestic silver near the top of its recent trading band, underlining how aggressively prices have repriced over the past few weeks. [7]

Futures and performance

  • MCX silver: On the futures side, Livemint reports MCX silver opening around ₹1,80,701 per kg, down roughly 0.7% after Monday’s surge, mirroring the small pullback in international markets. [8]
  • YTD move: The same analysis highlights that silver has more than doubled in 2025 in rupee terms, while gold is “only” up about 65% – an outperformance driven by both the global rally and a record‑weak rupee. [9]

For Indian households, that means jewellery, coins and bars are all dramatically more expensive than a year ago, and any “buy on dips” mindset is happening at price levels that would have looked outlandish as recently as 2023.

Why Is Silver So High? The Three Big Drivers

1. Fed pivot and a weaker dollar

The macro backdrop has flipped firmly in silver’s favour.

  • FXEmpire notes that Fed rate‑cut odds for December have jumped to about 87%, up from around 70% just days earlier, after a run of softer US data and more dovish central‑bank commentary. [10]
  • The Times of India and other outlets put the probability of a December cut near 88%, with markets also expecting further easing into 2026. [11]
  • Barchart’s dollar commentary shows the US dollar index sliding to multi‑week lows as rate expectations shift, historically a strong tailwind for dollar‑priced metals like silver. [12]

Lower real yields and a softening dollar reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets, making silver more attractive both as a hedge and as a speculative play.

2. Deep structural supply deficits and industrial demand

Silver’s story is no longer just about safe‑haven flows.

Analysis from EBC Financial Group, drawing on Silver Institute and LSEG data, highlights that: [13]

  • Industrial demand hit a record ~680 million ounces in 2024, the fourth consecutive record year, driven by electronics, 5G, EVs and especially solar.
  • The market has registered four straight years of deficits, with a structural shortfall of around 150 million ounces in 2024 and a cumulative deficit of nearly 680 million ounces between 2021 and 2024.
  • Solar alone accounted for roughly 240 million ounces in 2024, and could add another ~150 million ounces of yearly demand by 2030, according to LSEG‑based projections.

At the same time, mine supply is constrained because most silver is produced as a by‑product of other metals. EBC cites projections that global output could edge down from roughly 944 million ounces in 2025 to around 900 million by 2030 as some mines close or grade quality declines. [14]

That combination – record demand and slow supply growth – underpins the sense that this rally is more than pure speculation.

3. Inventory tightness, “critical mineral” status and market plumbing

The physical market looks increasingly tight:

  • EBC notes that inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses have dropped to their lowest since 2015, while visible stock on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is also thin – a sign that on‑exchange metal is being drawn down. [15]
  • London experienced a sharp supply squeeze in October, reportedly forcing tens of millions of ounces to be flown in from other hubs. [16]
  • Around 75 million ounces have left COMEX vaults since early October, as traders reposition metal globally amid worries over potential premiums or policy changes, according to the same analysis. [17]
  • The metal was added to the US Geological Survey’s “critical minerals” list in November 2025, raising the possibility of future trade, tariff or stockpiling distortions that could tighten supply further. [18]

On top of that, a high‑profile CME/COMEX outage on 28 November disrupted futures trading across asset classes; when markets reopened, silver “ripped through” prior highs, helping propel prices into the mid‑$50s. [19]

All of this has fed a narrative of “not enough metal in the right place at the right time”, which tends to magnify price moves once speculative money piles in.

What Analysts Are Saying Today (2 December 2025)

Several fresh takes hit the wires over the past 24 hours. Here’s how forecasters are framing the move.

Short‑term trading views

  • DailyForex (today): A morning wrap describes silver as having “led precious metals higher” and hit a new record high near $58 on Monday, but warns that the breakout comes on high volatility and suggests position sizes should be smaller than usual. Day traders are encouraged to treat intraday pullbacks and rebounds with extra caution. [20]
  • FXEmpire (yesterday, setting up this week): Silver is seen consolidating just below $57.85 after an “extended bullish run”. The first major support band lies around $55.99–$56.00, with the bias toward a retest of about $59.09 if that zone holds. [21]

Aggressive upside calls

  • Economic Times / Peter McGuire (today): In an interview with ET Now, Peter McGuire, CEO of Australia‑Trading.com, calls December a “tear‑away month” for metals and plants “a flag in the sand” for silver at $60 per ounce this month. He points to silver being up around 90% year‑to‑date, tight supply and a Fed rate‑cut probability that has jumped from about 20% to nearly 90% in just ten days. [22]

More measured, but still bullish, scenarios

  • Times of India / Mirae Asset (today): Analyst Praveen Singh highlights that spot silver recently traded near $58.28, up over 3% on the day, after a week‑long rally of nearly 13%. He flags plunging Chinese inventories and notes the gold–silver ratio dropping below a long‑term support around 73.25, suggesting more room for silver outperformance. Singh’s base case: silver could extend toward $62–$65 in the coming weeks or months, with buy‑the‑dip strategies preferred and $54 cited as a key stop‑loss level. [23]
  • FXStreet (yesterday): A technical note from FXStreet says silver has rallied about 15% in six trading days, marking fresh record highs around $57.9, powered by Fed‑cut hopes and mild risk aversion. It flags overbought Relative Strength Index (RSI) readings and sets immediate resistance at $58 and then the psychological $60, with support near $56.45 and then prior highs around $54.45. [24]
  • EBC mid‑term map (Dec 1): EBC’s deep‑dive emphasizes the mid‑$50s as the new “battlefield” zone. Its technical map highlights:
    • $57.5–58.0 – immediate resistance / new high band
    • $56–56.5 – breakout area and first reference support
    • $55–54 – first “strong” support zone
    • $50–50.7 – major breakout base and key line in the sand for longer‑term bulls [25]

In other words, most professional commentary remains constructive, but almost all of it comes with the same caveat: the market is stretched, and corrections of several dollars can happen quickly.

Technical Picture: Key Levels to Watch

Even if you’re not a chart‑junkie, it helps to know where the big lines are drawn.

Overbought, but still a strong uptrend

  • Barchart’s technical “Opinion” on XAG/USD currently shows a 100% “Strong Buy” rating, with RSI above 70, signalling a strong but overbought trend where a reversal can come suddenly. [26]
  • EBC and FXStreet both stress that daily and 4‑hour RSIs have pushed deep into the overbought zone, raising the odds of “air pockets” – sharp, fast drawdowns within a still‑bullish larger trend. [27]

Key resistance zones

Pulling together Barchart, FXStreet, FXEmpire and EBC, the market is broadly focused on:

  • $58–59: Immediate resistance / recent record‑high band (spot highs between ~$57.9 and $58.8). [28]
  • $60: Major psychological barrier and next upside target in multiple forecasts. [29]
  • Low‑$60s (~$62–$65): Extension zone flagged by both EBC and Times of India as plausible if the uptrend persists and risk appetite stays firm. [30]

Support zones

On the downside, traders are watching:

  • $56–56.5: First important intraday support band and breakout area, highlighted by FXEmpire and EBC. [31]
  • $55–54: “Normal pullback” zone after the recent spike; EBC and TOI both see this area as a healthy reset rather than a trend break. [32]
  • Around $50: The big structural line. EBC’s analysis treats the $50–50.7 region as the major base of this entire breakout; as long as price holds above it, the long‑term bull case remains intact. [33]

For silver futures on COMEX, Barchart quotes December 2025 contracts (SIZ25) around $57.15, with computed pivot levels showing: [34]

  • First resistance near $59.2, then $60.0–61.6
  • First support around $56.9, then $55.3–54.5

These numbers line up neatly with the spot‑market levels analysts are discussing.

Is This a Bubble or a New Regime? The Risk Checklist

Even bulls are clear that the current phase is high‑risk, high‑volatility. Key downside triggers to watch:

  1. Stronger‑than‑expected US data
    • FXEmpire notes that an upside surprise in key releases such as ISM manufacturing could lift the dollar and pressure metals, at least in the short term. [35]
  2. A less‑dovish Fed than markets expect
    • If the Fed cuts less than priced or signals a slower easing path, real yields could back up again, undercutting part of silver’s macro support.
  3. Macro slowdown hitting industrial demand
    • While supply is tight, silver is also a cyclical industrial metal. Persistent weakness in China and global manufacturing PMIs – highlighted in recent gold/silver outlooks – could cool demand for electronics and solar, blunting the bull case. [36]
  4. Positioning and sentiment
    • CFTC data (summarised by Barchart) show sizeable speculative long positions in silver futures; in such conditions, any negative surprise can produce a “rush for the exit” and outsized short‑term drops. [37]

In short: the fundamental backdrop is strong, but the tape is extended. That combination can deliver both spectacular gains and brutal shake‑outs.

What Today’s Move Means for Different Types of Investors

None of this is personalised advice, but analysts are broadly offering the following playbooks.

1. Short‑term traders

  • Treat silver as a momentum market in overdrive.
  • Several desks advocate reduced position sizes, wider stops and a willingness to step aside entirely if volatility spikes. [38]
  • For intraday strategies, the $56–56.5 support and $58–60 resistance bands are likely to be the key battleground zones over the coming sessions.

2. Medium‑term swing traders

  • Times of India and EBC both lean toward a “buy‑on‑dips” bias as long as pullbacks hold above the mid‑$50s and certainly above the $50–51 base. [39]
  • Common themes:
    • Consider scaling in rather than all‑in at once.
    • Use $54–55 as a rough line where the current leg of the rally would start to look tired.
    • Watch Fed communication and key macro data like ISM, jobs numbers and inflation prints very closely.

3. Long‑term investors and “stackers”

  • EBC and USAGOLD both frame the breakout as part of a longer shift toward structurally tighter precious‑metals markets, supported by central‑bank buying (for gold), chronic deficits (for silver) and industrial electrification. [40]
  • At the same time, Livemint relays broker guidance that precious metals should generally remain around 10% or less of a diversified portfolio, and stresses that silver’s volatility makes it suitable only for investors with high risk tolerance and long horizons. [41]
  • For these investors, the focus tends to be on position sizing and time horizon, not trying to catch exact tops or bottoms.

4. Indian household investors

  • Domestic silver has raced toward ₹1.8–2 lakh per kg, and the rupee’s weakness means local prices can stay sticky even if dollar prices pull back. [42]
  • Analysts repeatedly recommend staggered buying (SIP‑style) rather than lump‑sum bets, and emphasise that gold remains the more stable “core” holding, with silver as a high‑beta satellite exposure. [43]

Bottom Line

  • Today, 2 December 2025, silver is consolidating just above $57 per ounce, only a short step down from fresh record highs near $58 hit at the start of the week. [44]
  • The rally rests on a powerful mix of Fed‑cut expectations, a weaker dollar, multi‑year supply deficits, record industrial demand and visible inventory tightness. [45]
  • Forecasts for the next few weeks cluster around a volatile range between the mid‑$50s and low‑$60s, with upside targets at $60–65 and key support around $55–54 and then the $50 breakout base. [46]
  • Almost every major analyst, though, adds the same warning: this is a market to respect, not to chase blindly.

If you’re following silver today, the message is clear: the bull market is intact, but the easy part of the move may already be behind us.

References

1. www.usagold.com, 2. twelvedata.com, 3. tradingeconomics.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. indianexpress.com, 6. english.mathrubhumi.com, 7. www.5paisa.com, 8. www.livemint.com, 9. www.livemint.com, 10. www.fxempire.com, 11. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 12. www.barchart.com, 13. www.ebc.com, 14. www.ebc.com, 15. www.ebc.com, 16. www.ebc.com, 17. www.ebc.com, 18. www.ebc.com, 19. www.ebc.com, 20. www.dailyforex.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. m.economictimes.com, 23. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 24. www.fxstreet.com, 25. www.ebc.com, 26. www.barchart.com, 27. www.ebc.com, 28. www.barchart.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.ebc.com, 31. www.fxempire.com, 32. www.ebc.com, 33. www.ebc.com, 34. www.barchart.com, 35. www.fxempire.com, 36. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 37. www.barchart.com, 38. www.dailyforex.com, 39. www.ebc.com, 40. www.ebc.com, 41. www.livemint.com, 42. indianexpress.com, 43. www.livemint.com, 44. twelvedata.com, 45. www.ebc.com, 46. www.fxstreet.com



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2 12, 2025

Gold bulls eye all-time highs

By |2025-12-02T09:22:04+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold market overview

Gold continues to show impressive resilience even after failing to secure a breakout above the $4,245 premium zone. The pullback is controlled, orderly, and characteristic of a market rotating back into discount levels before attempting another upside leg.

This is not distribution, nor is it trend exhaustion. Instead, gold is rebalancing its structure—sweeping liquidity, returning to demand, and searching for institutional footprints before initiating its next leg. Traders anticipating a deeper collapse may underestimate how well-supported gold remains on higher timeframes.

Why Gold strength is still dominating the market

Even with the short-term rejection, the strength behind gold’s broader trend is undeniable. Several market forces continue to reinforce gold’s bullish structure, making the current pullback look more like a reload than a reversal.

1. Persistent global uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and risk-off flows continue to find their way into gold. The Middle East remains a live catalyst, and ongoing global flashpoints ensure gold retains its defensive appeal.

2. Central bank accumulation

Sovereign demand for physical gold remains strong. Multiple central banks—especially from emerging markets—continue to accumulate reserves at an elevated pace. This is not speculative buying; it is long-term strategic positioning that provides solid structural support.

3. Policy easing expectations

Even with short-term yield fluctuations, the broader trend leans toward eventual monetary easing. A shift toward a less restrictive environment typically weakens real yields and supports gold’s upside.

4. Inflation has normalized but not vanished

Inflation has cooled, but it has not returned sustainably to central bank targets. This “sticky” inflation environment reinforces gold’s role as a medium-term hedge.

5. Markets are rethinking risk premiums

Equity volatility remains sensitive, global liquidity is tightening unevenly, and portfolio managers remain cautious. This keeps gold relevant as a stabilizer across multi-asset portfolios.

All of these drivers underscore one key point:

Gold’s macro foundation for bullish continuation is still intact—and very strong.

News and drivers affecting XAU/USD in the past seven days

Recent developments shaping gold’s behavior:

US Dollar stabilization

DXY’s recent consolidation has temporarily slowed gold’s momentum, but without a sustained breakout in the dollar, gold remains positioned to reclaim strength.

Yields near short-term peaks

US yields saw a modest uptick, contributing to gold’s rejection from $4,245. Yet without structural yield strength, this impact is likely temporary.

Lower liquidity conditions

Holiday-related thin trading amplified intraday volatility, leading to sharp wicks and short-term rejections. These conditions often exaggerate pullbacks without changing the broader trend.

Together, these developments help explain the recent dip—but none of them point to a narrative shift against gold.

Technical outlook

Gold is executing a classic, healthy retracement after rejecting the $4,245 premium. The structure aligns with a technical rebalancing into discount pricing.

Key elements from the current setup:

  • Rejection at premium pricing
  • Ongoing corrective cycle
  • FVG and order block convergence at $4,160–$4,120
  • Fibonacci alignment between 0.618–0.79
  • Room for a higher low before continuation
  • All-time high at $4,381 remains the next major liquidity target

Bullish scenario: Demand zone holds and Gold pushes to the all-time high

If gold reacts cleanly at the demand zone:

  • The $4,160–$4,120 order block becomes the primary decision point.
  • A displacement or break-of-structure would confirm renewed bullish intent.
  • A successful reclaim of $4,245 opens the path toward the all-time high at $4,381.
  • Upside targets:
    • $4,310
    • $4,340
    • $4,381 (ATH retest)
    • Extended: $4,420 if momentum accelerates

This remains the preferred scenario given the broader macro backdrop.

Bearish scenario: Order block fails and retracement deepens

If price breaks below the $4,120 structure:

  • Gold could sweep into the $4,080–$4,030 imbalance.
  • A structural break below $4,030 would invite a deeper correction.
  • Downside extension targets sit at $3,980 and below.

This scenario requires clear bearish confirmation—it is not yet the dominant expectation.

Final thoughts

Gold remains one of the strongest assets in global markets. The recent dip does not undermine the bullish macro or structural narrative. Instead, it positions gold to form a higher low before making another attempt at the all-time high.

With the $4,160–$4,120 zone now in focus, traders should monitor how price behaves there. A strong reaction could be the catalyst that sends gold back toward $4,381—and potentially beyond.



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2 12, 2025

The GBPCHF begins to decline– Forecast today – 1-12-2025

By |2025-12-02T07:21:16+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.

 

Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60

 

Trend forecast: Bearish 

 





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2 12, 2025

Gold edges higher above $4,200 on US rate cut expectations

By |2025-12-02T03:19:05+02:00December 2, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to near $4,230 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher to a near six-week high amid growing expectations of US interest rate cuts. 

The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) contracted for the ninth straight month in November, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. The Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2 in November, versus 48.7 prior, below the estimation of 48.6. Following softer US economic data, traders have increased December rate-cut bets to an 87% chance, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.

“The underlying environment of expectations of further rate cuts, along with inflationary pressure still above the Fed target… is still the underlying support in gold and silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.

On the other hand, China’s physical Gold demand softens at high prices, which could drag the yellow metal price lower. The Financial Times reported that large retail chains have reduced their footprint in mainland China this year, while several small sellers said surging prices and a growing tax burden had torpedoed sales. 

This week’s key US macro releases could drive the US dollar (USD)  demand and influence the near-term trajectory for the Gold price in the near term. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports on Wednesday, ahead of the key Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data. If the data come in stronger than expected, this could boost the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. 

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



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1 12, 2025

International Paper price shows more negative signs – Forecast today

By |2025-12-01T23:17:03+02:00December 1, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


International Paper Company (IP) extended its gains in its latest intraday trading as the stock attempts to correct its main short-term descending trend. However, continuous negative pressure persists from trading below its previous 50-day SMA, which limits its near-term recovery prospects. This comes especially with the emergence of a negative crossover on the RSI indicators after they reached extremely overbought levels in an exaggerated manner compared to the price movement, suggesting the early formation of a negative divergence.

 

Therefore we expect the stock to decline in its upcoming trading, especially if the resistance level of $39.50 holds, targeting again the pivotal support level of $35.55.

 

Today’s price forecast: Bearish





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1 12, 2025

Focus on daily close as XAU/USD braces for key US data

By |2025-12-01T15:12:01+02:00December 1, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold is firming up near $4,250 early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. Gold buyers retain control at the start of a new month amid growing calls for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as early as next week.

Gold capitalizes on broad US Dollar weakness

Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar (USD) keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.

Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Gold optimists aim for the $4,300 threshold.

Last week, Reuters reported that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair.

Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.

In the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which could provide fresh hints on the health of the economy, following a spate of dated economic releases. The headline Manufacturing PMI is set to edge lower to 48.6 last month after October’s 48.7.

Deepening contraction in the American manufacturing sector will likely cement a December Fed rate cut, exacerbating the Greenback’s pain, while providing a fresh leg higher in the bright metal.

Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all rise in bullish alignment with price above them, while the 21-day SMA at $4,095.07 offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 65.97, reflecting firm upside momentum without venturing into overbought territory. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the immediate advance. A decisive close above it could extend the run.

Bias stays positive as the metal holds above its rising averages, with the 50-day SMA at $4,040.77 underpinning the trend. Holding above the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 indicates the prior bearish phase is losing strength. A failure to maintain that level would risk a deeper pullback, while a break higher would keep bulls in control toward the recent high.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



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