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Price has spent the entire week testing the critical confluence of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,023 and the 20-day average near $4,041. A short-term uptrend line cuts through the range, adding dynamic context to this high-density support zone.
Weekly support arrives at the rising 10-week average near $3,988, mirroring the daily 50-day average at $3,981. Both longer-term benchmarks sit only marginally below current price and remain untested since their August reclaim.
The $3,998 higher interim swing low established Tuesday stays intact so far. As long as it holds, the uptrend structure from October’s $3,886 base remains valid, bolstered by the recent 10-day/20-day bullish cross and 20-day reclaim.
Last week’s lower swing high at $4,245 and closing in the lower half of the week’s range created a potential shooting star. Validation requires a weekly close below last week’s $3,997 low, which would deliver strong bearish momentum and threaten the 50-day line. However, for active traders, an initial dip may provide a valid signal.
A weekly push above $4,133 targets last week’s high, then the $4,381 October record. Recent momentum slowdown, however, makes extended consolidation beyond this week a realistic possibility.
Gold’s inside week places the 20-day/61.8% confluence as the immediate pivot. Hold $3,998–$3,997 to protect the higher-low sequence and favor eventual continuation higher; a weekly close below $3,997 activates the shooting star and targets the untested 50-day near $3,981. Until proven otherwise, dips into this zone remain buyable in the structural bull trend.
Natural gas price rose in its last trading on the intraday basis, due to its leaning on the support of EMA50, gaining bullish momentum that helped it to achieve these last gains, preparing to attack the key resistance at $4.75, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside supportive trend line for this trend, besides the emergence of the positive signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching oversold levels.
Therefore, we suggest a rise in its upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching $4.75, to target its main resistance at $5.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.55 and $5.00
Trend forecast: Bullish
Gold is struggling for a direction, while trading under the $4,100 mark early Friday, although remaining confined in a familiar range. Despite the range-play, Gold is set to end the week on a subdued note.
Markets remain wary about whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut or not cut interest rates in December, especially after the dated September US employment report released Thursday.
The headline US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 119,000 in September, following a 4,000 decrease (revised from +22,000) recorded in August. The reading outpaced the market forecast of 50,000.
Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% in this period. The mixed data provided an ambiguous picture of the Fed’s path forward on interest rates.
However, markets continued to price in about a 40% chance that the Fed will lower rates next month as policymakers remained cautious on further monetary policy easing.
“Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned on Thursday that cutting rates further right now carries a wide range of risks for the economy. Fed Governor Lisa Cook sees a risk of outsized asset price declines.”
The hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed is weighing on non-yielding assets such as Gold. But Gold’s downside appears cushioned by the tech sell-off on Wall Street and later in the Asian markets as the solid Nvidia earnings-led rally faded.
Expectations of a massive economic stimulus package due to be unveiled by Japan’s government later on Friday also help keep Gold buyers hopeful. The package is estimated to be worth over JPY 20 trillion, the biggest since COVID-19.
Traders now eagerly await the S&P Global preliminary PMI data for November from the United States (US) for fresh insights on the health of the US economy The data could help markets reprice Fed rate cut expectations, eventually impacting Gold price action.
The US Manufacturing PMI is set to fall to 52 in November from 52.5 in October. The Services PMI is likely to stay unchanged at 54.8 in the reported period.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,065.29. The 50-, 100-, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) advance while price holds above them, maintaining a bullish bias. The 21-day SMA has flattened and edged lower, with $4,044.66 offering nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.00 (neutral), reflecting balanced momentum after the recent rebound.
Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 38.2% retracement at $4,075.05 acts as near-term resistance, and a daily close above it would open the 50% retracement at $4,133.50. With momentum neutral and trend support intact, the path of least resistance would improve on a break of this barrier, while failure to clear it would keep gains capped and risk a return to the rising averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Oil prices fell sharply again on Friday, November 21, 2025, extending a three‑day losing streak and dragging benchmarks to around four‑year lows as traders reacted to possible peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors, and mounting fears of a global supply glut.
By late morning in Europe, Brent crude futures were trading around $62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered just under $58, down roughly 2% on the day and on course for weekly losses of about 3–4%. [1]
Both benchmarks are now roughly 15–25% below their peaks from early 2025 and close to the lowest levels seen since 2021, according to market data and independent price trackers. [2]
Different price services quote slightly different intraday levels, but today’s trading range is tightly clustered:
Price services such as Trading Economics and other real‑time platforms also show Brent near $62.4 and “Crude Oil” (WTI) near $57.9, confirming the broad picture of a market grinding lower. [5]
Several commentators describe these levels as fresh four‑year lows, after a steady slide from above $80 per barrel at the start of 2025. [6]
Today’s move is not about a single headline. Instead, it’s a convergence of geopolitical shifts, macroeconomic worries, and supply‑demand fundamentals.
Oil markets have carried a “war premium” since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting fears of prolonged supply disruptions. That premium is being squeezed.
Even though no agreement is guaranteed, analysts quoted across multiple outlets caution that even the possibility of a peace deal is enough to shave off some of crude’s risk premium and tilt sentiment bearish. [9]
At the same time, U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil formally take effect today, adding a new twist. [10]
In theory this should support prices by tightening supply. But several analysts note that:
The result: markets see the sanctions as messy but not (yet) a severe supply shock, especially if peace efforts succeed in stabilizing the region.
Underlying today’s sell‑off is a growing consensus that supply is running ahead of demand:
OPEC+ has tried to lean against the glut narrative. In early November, the group agreed to:
However, with Brent hovering near $62 despite those steps, traders appear unconvinced that the cuts so far are enough to clear looming surpluses.
Macro conditions are also leaning against crude:
Commentary from macro‑focused outlets notes that investors are in “risk‑off” mode, selling stocks, high‑yield assets, and commodities in tandem as they reassess how long higher rates may persist into 2026. [20]
Fundamentally, U.S. inventory data this week was mildly supportive for crude — but not enough to offset the bearish macro picture.
The latest weekly report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as summarized by Rigzone, showed that: [21]
Analysts described the report as showing a “tighter crude balance but softer product demand” — hardly the recipe for a sustained rally when traders are already fretting about 2026 oversupply.
For households and transport‑heavy sectors, sub‑$60 WTI and low‑$60s Brent are good news:
Lower fuel costs also benefit:
The flip side: today’s oil price is painful for many producers.
The broader energy sector has been volatile all week, with equity indices tracking oil prices lower as investors reassess earnings forecasts for 2026 under a “lower for longer” price scenario. [25]
Countries heavily dependent on imported crude are juggling price advantages against geopolitical pressure:
The short‑term impact is likely to be higher logistical complexity rather than outright shortages, but over time such shifts could alter regional pricing dynamics and freight costs.
Beyond fundamentals, chart‑watchers say the technical picture for crude has turned decisively bearish:
The message from the charts: unless a fresh catalyst emerges — whether geopolitical or economic — momentum currently favors the bears.
Looking beyond today’s close, several key themes will shape the next leg for oil prices:
For now, the balance of evidence points to an oil market tilted toward oversupply, with prices under pressure from both improved geopolitical visibility and a less dovish central‑bank outlook. Unless that calculus changes, traders and policymakers alike may need to get used to Brent in the low‑$60s and WTI in the high‑$50s as the new normal — at least heading into the start of 2026.
What is the Brent oil price today, 21 November 2025?
Brent crude has traded around $62 per barrel, with most price services quoting levels between about $61.9 and $62.5during Friday’s European session. [35]
What is today’s WTI crude price?
WTI crude has been quoted in the $57.5–58.0 per barrel range, down roughly 2% from Thursday’s close and on track for a third straight daily decline. [36]
Why are oil prices falling today?
The drop reflects hopes for a Russia–Ukraine peace deal, new yet manageable sanctions on Russian oil giants, worries about a 2026 supply glut, a stronger U.S. dollar as Fed rate‑cut hopes fade, and an EIA report showing only modest U.S. crude stock draws alongside soft product demand. [37]
Crude Oil Prices Explained – WTI vs Brent
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.polyestertime.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. tradingeconomics.com, 6. www.polyestertime.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 12. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 13. www.polyestertime.com, 14. www.iea.org, 15. www.polyestertime.com, 16. www.aljazeera.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. dmarketforces.com, 20. markets.financialcontent.com, 21. www.rigzone.com, 22. www.polyestertime.com, 23. www.polyestertime.com, 24. www.polyestertime.com, 25. markets.financialcontent.com, 26. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 27. www.fxempire.com, 28. www.fxempire.com, 29. www.fxempire.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. dmarketforces.com, 34. www.iea.org, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com
The EURJPY pair declined slightly in the last intraday levels, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, to gain bullish momentum that might help it to recover and rise again, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside supportive trend line, and there is continued dynamic support due to its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the chances of its recovery in the upcoming perio.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the upcoming intraday trading, especially when breaching the key resistance at 181.90, targeting its next resistance at 183.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 180.75 and 183.00
Trend forecast: Bullish
Copper price rose in attempt to recover its previous losses, and it attempts to recover some of its losses, attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions, especially with the emergence of positive overlapping signals, amid the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reinforcing the dominance and stability of the bearish corrective trend on the short-term basis with its trading alongside supportive trend line.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in their last trading on an intraday basis, if the resistance settles at $55.10, to target the key support level at $4.95.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.95 and $5.10
Trend forecast: Bearish
Silver price (XAG/USD) revisits the weekly low around $49.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the December policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 35.5%.
The scenario in which the Fed holds interest rates steady bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fed dovish expectations stay lower as officials remain concerned over rising inflation risks to the upside. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack stated that high inflation is the “real issue” of the economy, adding that “inflation is still too high and trending in wrong direction”, which calls for the need to keep the monetary policy “somewhat restrictive”.
Meanwhile, the rising United States (US) jobless rate has also failed to intensify Fed dovish expectations meaningfully. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Silver price struggles to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $49.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors about the near-term outlook.
Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Wednesday’s decisive close above the 10-day line marked a clear bullish reversal after a brief violation days earlier. A daily close back below $4.67 today would jeopardize that signal and return short-term bias to bearish. Minor or brief dips with swift recovery remain tolerable in a strong trend.
Wednesday’s $4.57 low established the current higher daily low sequence. A decisive drop beneath it would erase that bullish distinction and invite a deeper test of the rising 20-day average at $4.47, now converging with a supporting uptrend line for enhanced significance.
The entire advance continues to probe the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement zone of the prior major decline. Sustained trade and a close above Wednesday’s $4.81 high is required to confirm continuation momentum and head towards a challenge the recent trend high at $4.88.
A clean break above $4.88–$4.95 (March 2025 peak) unlocks $4.96 as the immediate next objective, followed by $5.14. The 127.2% extension of the recent pullback defines the first new trend-high projection, while the 161.8% extension outlines the stronger measured move if bulls stay aggressive.
Thursday’s inside day crystallizes the 10-day average at $4.67 and higher low at $4.57 as the immediate defensive line for bulls. Hold this zone to protect Wednesday’s hammer reversal and drive toward $4.88–$4.96 in the sessions ahead. A close below $4.57 shifts focus to the 20-day/uptrend confluence at $4.47; only sustained weakness beneath that level would meaningfully threaten the broader bullish structure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) declined in its latest intraday trading, with the short-term primary downtrend firmly in control as the stock continues to move along a descending trendline. Additional negative pressure persists as it trades below its 50-day simple moving average, reducing its chances of a near-term recovery. This comes alongside continued negative signals from the Relative Strength Indicators, even after the stock succeeded earlier in unwinding its oversold conditions.
Therefore, we expect the stock’s price to decline in the upcoming sessions, especially if it stabilizes below 316.40 dollars, targeting its first support level at 273.85 dollars.
Today’s price forecast: Bearish
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.46 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $58.43.
Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $62.52 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $62.54.
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.