The advance decisively broke through a potential resistance zone from $3.92 to $3.93, consisting of a 127.2% rising ABCD pattern target and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement. This clearance removes a significant hurdle and puts natural gas in position to challenge prior resistance at the June swing high. Exceeding this level would trigger a bullish signal, breaking a swing high from the downtrend structure and confirming a shift in momentum.
Support Structure
Key near-term support is today’s $3.79 low. The $3.92-$3.93 range, now former resistance, can also be monitored for signs of flipping to support. Since there was minimal pushback at that zone, a confirmed bull breakout could solidify it as a new floor. Wednesday’s $3.75 low provides another short-term support level if tested, offering buyers a chance to defend.
Long-Term Bull Trend
Natural gas is showing clear signs of resuming the long-term bull trend that began from 2024’s low. The long-term uptrend line was recently recovered, along with a downtrend line. Prices now trade above the 200-day average after remaining below it since early August, reinforcing underlying demand and structural improvement.
Upside Targets
Clearing the 127.2% ABCD target opens the 161.8% extended Fibonacci target at $4.21 — the higher potential target for the current advance from August’s low. This would require surpassing the June swing high. A strong weekly close would further solidify the bullish posture, though a pullback remains possible before reaching $4.21.
Outlook
The $3.79 close is critical — above it targets the June high, below risks $3.75. The 200-day average marks maximum downside if support fails. Today’s strength favors continuation — watch the June high for reversal confirmation. Pullbacks may offer entry opportunities if trendlines and the 200-day hold firm.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The US Dollar stands strong across the FX board following major central banks’ decisions.
The United States government shutdown continues with no resolution in sight.
XAU/USD showing some tepid bullish signs, not yet out of the woods.
Spot Gold managed to recover some ground on Thursday, trading around the $4,000 mark at the time of writing. The advance was limited, however, by broad demand for the US Dollar (USD). Following the Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish interest rate cut on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to leave rates unchanged as widely anticipated. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered some dovish remarks that sent the Japanese Yen sharply lower, while providing additional impetus to the USD.
The Greenback also benefited from headlines indicating that the United States (US) and China reached a trade deal, de-escalating recent tensions. US President Donald Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping and agreed on rolling back some of their recent punitive actions. Trump announced it would immediately reduce fentanyl-related tariffs to 10%, and that China will resume buying soybean and agricultural products. Trump also mentioned they reached an agreement on chips and rate earths, although without much detail.
Other than that, the European Central Bank (ECB) also announced its monetary policy decision, leaving interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated. President Christine Lagarde repeated that the central bank is in a good place and showed no urge to modify the monetary policy.
Finally, it is worth remembering that the US government remains on pause, amid the lack of funding. The US Senate seems in no rush to agree on a bill, which is costing the well-being of thousands of federal employees.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is currently trading at around $4,002, holding on to solid intraday gains. A bearish 20 SMA slides south at $3,973, sitting just above the 200 SMA, and both are below the current level, providing support. The 100 SMA at $4,109 is marginally easing and acts as immediate resistance. At the same time, the Momentum indicator stands just above its 100 line, suggesting the bearish impulse is losing traction. As for the RSI, it remains flat around 49, reflecting the absence of directional strength despite the intraday bounce. A decisive clearance of the 100 SMA resistance at $4,109 would unlock additional upside, whereas failure to top that level keeps risks skewed toward a pullback to the 20 SMA support at $3,973 ahead of $3,956.
In the daily chart, a bullish 20 SMA rallies above the longer ones, suggesting buyers still hold the broader grip; the 20 SMA stands at $4,080 and now acts as immediate resistance. The 100 SMA is also bullish, advancing to $3,578, while the 200 SMA rises to $3,340, both of which underpin the long-term bullish bias. Finally, the Momentum indicator has managed to bounce from its recent lows, but remains within negative levels, while the RSI indicator has recovered to 51edging back toward neutrality; the uptick hints at tentative buying interest.
(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)
Natural gas price surrendered to stochastic negativity, threatening the stability of the extra support at $3.830, suffering intraday losses by hitting $3.770 level, then attempts to settle above this support to confirm the dominance of the previously suggested bullish bias.
We recommend waiting for providing new bullish close for the upcoming four hours’ time frame above the current support, which reinforces the chances of forming several bullish waves, to target $4.050 level, reaching the barrier near $4.210, while facing new bearish pressures will confirm activating the bearish corrective track, which forces it to suffer more losses by targeting $3.690 and $3.550 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.800 and $4.050
Platinum price didn’t move anything in yesterday’s trading, due to the repeated confinement between the extra support at $1525.00, while $1605.00 level keeps forming a barrier against the attempts of activating the previously suggested bullish trend.
Providing more of the sideways trading until breaching the current barrier and holding above it, to confirm its readiness to record some gains by its rally towards $1665.00 and $1695.00, while breaking the support and holding below it will force the price to suffer new losses towards $1470.00 reaching the next support near $1440.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1530.00 and $1605.00
Gold is once again attempting a bounce above $3,900 as buyers try their luck for the third consecutive day in Asian trading this Thursday.
Gold looks to outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting
Gold remains confined within a familiar range, despite the critical US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision-induced volatility seen on Wednesday.
The bright metal briefly regained the $4,000 barrier after the Fed delivered on the expected 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut.
However, the upswing was quickly reversed as the US Dollar (USD) staged an impressive comeback following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary during the press conference.
Powell noted that policymakers are likely to become more cautious if it deprives them of further job and inflation reports, per Reuters.
His words tempered bets for another rate cut by the Fed next month, with markets now pricing in a 67.8% probability that the Fed will hold rates at the December 10 meeting, compared with a 9.1% chance seen pre-Fed announcements, the CME Group’s FedWatch tool shows.
Early Thursday, Gold buyers have come up for some air after four consecutive days of losses, eagerly awaiting the outcome of the highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea, that is now underway.
The recent US-China trade talks have signalled a potential deal is in the offing at this meeting, especially after a preliminary consensus on topics including export controls, fentanyl and shipping levies was reached by both sides during their two-day talks in Malaysia.
Failure to reach a trade agreement by the top leaders could send risk sentiment into a tailspin, reviving the safe-haven demand for Gold. On the contrary, if both sides boast about progress toward a trade deal or stike one, Gold could be hammered as risk flows will take over.
In case an outright trade deal is not reached, the specifics of the meetings and details of any progress made would be closely scrutinized by markets.
On Wednesday, President Trump said that he expects to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing’s commitment to curb exports of fentanyl precursor chemicals.
Another catalyst that could drive Gold moves is the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy announcements. Any surprises from the BoJ could trigger a sharp volatility in the USD/JPY pair, which could have a significant impact on the USD and the USD-denominated Gold.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD is currently trading at around $3,938. A bullish 21 SMA advances above the longer ones, in line with the dominant bullish momentum; the 21 SMA stands at $4,066 and, being above spot, caps the immediate topside. Furthermore, the 50 SMA is also bullish, advancing below the shorter one; the 50 SMA stands at $3,807. Below spot, the 50 SMA at $3,807, the 100 SMA at $3,577 and the 200 SMA at $3,340 offer successive support levels, while the 21 SMA at $4,066 acts as resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) has eased to 47, slipping below its neutral 50 mid-line after prior readings in extreme overbought territory; the latest uptick from 46 reduces bearish traction and favors consolidation as the broader moving-average structure remains positive.
Measuring the rally between $3,314 and $4,380, the 38.2% retracement stands at $3,973. With price currently beneath $3,973, initial resistance is located at $3,973, followed by $4,066 (21 SMA) and the 23.6% retracement at $4,129; a clearance of these levels would reassert the bullish sequence toward the top at $4,380. On the downside, support levels are $3,847 (50% retracement) ahead of $3,721 (61.8%), then $3,542 (78.6%) and $3,314 (100% of the measured upswing). As long as price holds above the rising 50 and 100 SMAs, pullbacks are likely to remain shallow, while a daily close back above $3,973 would be a near-term signal that buyers are regaining traction.
(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
A key resistance level is June’s interim swing high at $4.15, aligned with the 161.8% ABCD target. Clearing this point would trigger a trend reversal, confirming improving underlying demand within the prior downswing’s structure. Near-term support is today’s $3.75 low, with resistance at the $3.86 high. The gap’s size and follow-through suggest buyers are stepping in with conviction.
Support Alignment
Dynamic support centers on the 200-day moving average and a long-term uptrend line. The 200-day line is converging with the uptrend line, soon forming a tighter price area to reinforce support during any weakness. Holding above this confluence keeps the bullish outlook intact and supports the case for higher prices.
Bull Channel Reactivated
The advance from August’s swing low gained clear continuation today. The previous downtrend is broken, and the long-term uptrend line has been recaptured, putting the large rising bull channel from 2024’s low back in play. Pullbacks should now attract buyers, using lower prices to establish support and fuel the next leg higher.
Outlook and Key Levels
Today’s $3.75-$3.86 range will set the tone—holding support targets $3.93-$3.95, while a break risks retesting the 200-day eventually. The gap and breakout favor bulls, with $4.15 as the critical reversal trigger. New contract data will refine future analysis, but the channel structure and trendline reclaim point to sustained upside if support holds firm. Watch today’s close for confirmation of momentum.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
The Bank of Canada delivered a 25-basis-point interest rate cut as expected.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are next in line to announce monetary policy decisions.
XAU/USD struggles to run past $4,000, near-term risk skewed to the downside.
Spot Gold recovered the $4,000 mark after bottoming at $3,886.62 earlier in the week, but is currently hovering around the $4,000 mark. Financial markets are all about central banks on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) already announcing its decision and the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) coming up next.
The BoC cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% as widely anticipated, pushing the Canadian Dollar (CAD) sharply up and maintaining the US Dollar (USD) on the back foot. Policymakers “cut rates to support the economy through adjustment to US trade policy,” according to the accompanying statement.
Coming up next is the Fed, widely anticipated to cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps. It would be interesting to see what Chairman Jerome Powell has to say amid the ongoing government shutdown and the lack of updated data before the announcement. Could the Fed hold its fire? Seems unlikely as it would be an unexpected shock to financial markets, a risk Fed officials are unwilling to take.
Other than that, the BoJ will announce its monetary policy decision early in the Asian session, and is likely to hold interest rates unchanged, although market participants will be looking for hints on interest rate hikes. At the end of the day, the Gold price will react to the market’s sentiment after policymakers unveil their thoughts on economic performance and future monetary policies.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is currently trading around $3,992, up $27 for the day. A bearish 20 SMA slides south below the 100 SMA, while providing near-term resistance at $4,006, followed by the 100 SMA at $4,113. Conversely, the 200 SMA is advancing and stands at $3,947 beneath the current level, underpinning the broader bias while providing critical support. The Momentum indicator has recovered markedly and now hovers near its midline, lacking sustained directional strength, while the RSI remains flat at 43, suggesting a bearish tilt within consolidation. A sustained move above $4,006 would likely ease selling pressure and open the door to a test of $4,113; failure to reclaim the short-term average would keep risks skewed toward a pullback to the $3,947 support.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD is developing below a bullish 20 SMA that runs above the longer ones, in line with the dominant bullish momentum and hinting at additional gains ahead; the 20 SMA, however, stands at $4,075, acting as dynamic resistance. The 100 SMA is also bullish, advancing at $3,572, while the 200 SMA continues to rise at $3,334. At the same time, the Momentum indicator has reversed decisively, plunging well below the 100 midline, and pointing to strong bearish pressure in the short term. Meanwhile, the RSI has cooled to 50, signaling neutral conditions after earlier overbought extremes. The mix suggests consolidation or a corrective pullback may persist while below $4075; a sustained push above that barrier would likely revive the bullish bias, whereas failure to stabilize risks a deeper slide toward the 100-day SMA at $3,572, with the 200-day at $3,334 next support.
(This content was partially created with the help of an AI tool)
Gold price (XAU/USD) snaps its three-day losing streak, trading 1.70% higher to near $4,020 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The precious metal bounces back ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) interest rate reduction by the Fed that will push the Federal Fund rate to 3.75%-4.00%.
Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) also trades higher ahead of the Fed’s policy, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading 0.15% higher around 99.00. 10-year US Treasury yields edge up to near 4.00%.
In the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, investors will also look for cues about whether the United States (US) central bank will cut interest rates again in December. Market participants would also look for cues about the current status of the labor market amid the absence of US economic data releases due to the federal shutdown.
The next trigger for the Gold price will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. Both leaders are expected to sign the trade deal and discuss various issues such as technology sharing, rare earth exports to Washington, and tariffs.
The scenario of improving trade relations between the two powerhouses would diminish the appeal of safe-haven assets, such as Gold.
Gold technical analysis
Gold price bounces back on Wednesday after attracting bids near the three-week low of $3,886.60 posted on Tuesday. However, the Gold price struggles to extend its upside above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $4,035.60.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend in the near term.
On the upside, the Gold price would revisit its all-time high of $4,380 if it extends its recovery move above the October 22 high of $4,161.40. Looking down, the Gold price could slide towards the September 25 low of $3,722.07 if it breaks below the October 28 low of $3,886.60.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBPJPY pair activated the previously suggested bearish corrective track, putting it under strong negative pressure to achieve the previously suggested stations by reaching 201.15, then retesting the extra support at 201.75.
Forming extra barrier at 202.55 level and the continuation of providing negative momentum by stochastic will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting 200.45 level, and surpassing it might extend the losses towards 199.20 directly.
The expected trading range for today is between 200.45 and 202.55
The (ETHUSD) price settled with sharp decline in its last intraday trading, amid the emergence of the negative signals on the relative strength indicators, attempting to look for rising low that might help it to recover, leaning on the support of its EMA50, providing strong chance for gaining this momentum, especially with the dominance of the bullish correction trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside trendline, with the strength relative indicators reaching exaggerated oversold levels.
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-1761734759220-1761734759226.png&w=1536&q=95 "XAU/USD snaps three-day losing streak as Fed’s policy takes centre stage")
