• GBP/JPY has fallen to a trendline for the August rally. 
• The pair is in a downtrend with odds favoring an extension lower. 

GBP/JPY is trying to pierce the trendline for the uptrend since the August lows. If it is successful and decisively breaches the trendline, it will suggest a follow-through lower to a fresh downside target at 186.20, the 61.8% Fibonacci of the down move prior to the trendline (blue rectangle on chart). 

The pair is now in a short and probably medium-term downtrend (since the October 31 high) and according to technical analysis lore trends have a tendency to extend, suggesting the odds favor even more downside to come.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart 

GBP/JPY is making its way down to the next target for the pair at around 189.56, the low of the Right-Angled triangle that formed in late September and early October. 

It is also possible it could bounce from the current level at the trendline which is a support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not yet oversold which indicates the pair could still have further to fall before it gets oversold.  

A decisive breach of the trendline would be one accompanied by a long red candlestick that closed near its lows and well clear of the trendline, or three consecutive red candles that breached the level.