Category: Forex News

There’s More to Gold’s Outlook Than Just Its Confirmed Breakout

Quoting my yesterday’s intraday Gold Trading Alert:

As the USD Index just moved below its late-Feb. low it can now decline even lower – how low? Quite likely to the 102.5 – 102.8 area. That’s where we have the following:

  • the 50% Fibonacci retracement,
  • the previous lows,
  • and the declining support line that was broken in the final days of February.

Before anyone says that the rates might fall in the U.S. and this would make dollar decline, please note that the same thing is the case globally – the ECB just provided the same no-rate-cut-yet-but-sometime-in-the-future narrative. The USD Index is an index that is based on several currency exchange rates, so it’s value is driven by how well the U.S. currency does relative (!) to other currencies. If the situation is bad for the USD but it’s worse for other currencies, the USD Index would be likely to rally, because in relative terms, the USD would be a better choice.

Technically speaking, the USD Index has floor just below today’s lows, so its downside is likely limited. And it’s bottom and the subsequent rally might be the trigger that takes gold lower and that takes our short positions in junior mining stocks to their profit-take levels.

The USD Index just moved even slightly below my target area and now it’s back in it. It seems quite likely that the bottom for the USD Index was just formed.

Therefore, it could be the case that the gold price (that just moved slightly above $2,200) just as mining stocks just formed their local tops, especially that miners are clearly underperforming gold today. The euro is likely topping here as well.

Will gold hold above its previous all-time highs and start a new powerful upleg after the upcoming correction? I’m discussing that in the full version of today’s analysis along with multiple other charts and details.


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