Category: Forex News, News

USA EIA Cuts WTI Oil Price Forecast for 2024 and 2025

By Published On: May 17, 20243 min readViews: 810 Comments on USA EIA Cuts WTI Oil Price Forecast for 2024 and 2025

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for 2024 and 2025 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO).

According to its May STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $83.05 per barrel this year and $80.88 per barrel next year. In its previous April STEO, the EIA projected that the commodity would average $83.78 per barrel in 2024 and $82.48 per barrel in 2025.

The EIA forecast in its latest STEO that the WTI spot price will average $84.76 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $85.50 per barrel in the third quarter, $84.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $83.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $81.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $80.50 per barrel in the third quarter, and $78.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter of next year.

That STEO highlighted that the WTI spot price averaged $77.50 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024 and $77.58 per barrel overall in 2023.

In its previous April STEO, the EIA projected that the WTI spot price would average $85.30 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $86.84 per barrel in the third quarter, $85.17 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $83.84 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $82.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $81.16 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

In a report sent to Rigzone last week, Standard Chartered projected that the nearby future NYMEX WTI basis price will average $95 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $103 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $104 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $100 per barrel in the second quarter of next year, and $108 per barrel in the third quarter of 2025.

The company forecast in that report that the commodity will average $106 per barrel overall in 2025, $125 per barrel overall in 2026, and $112 per barrel overall in 2027.

In a separate report sent to Rigzone earlier this month, analysts at Morningstar DBRS said they were increasing their full-year 2024 WTI oil price forecast to $75 per barrel from $65 per barrel “to reflect actual year to date pricing, a more favorable full-year global liquids supply/demand balance, and a greater risk premium related to geopolitical tensions relative to our prior forecast”.

“There is no change to our previous 2025 and 2026 WTI price forecasts of $60 per barrel,” the analysts added in the report.

The Morningstar DBRS analysts noted in that report that their midcycle or normalized long-term price band of $50 per barrel to $70 per barrel for WTI oil remained unchanged.

“The band reflects our best judgment of (1) the marginal cost of adding new oil supplies from sources such as U.S. shale resource plays and (2) a global market that is reasonably well balanced (based on modest production-containment efforts by OPEC+ and modest growth in global demand),” they added.

“Our forecasts for both 2025 and 2026 fall within this band,” they highlighted.

In a research note sent to Rigzone on April 26, J.P Morgan projected that the WTI crude price would average $79 per barrel this year and $71 per barrel in 2025. The company forecast in the report that the commodity would average $80 per barrel across the second and third quarters, $81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

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